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By Tom Mahoney, Chief Meteorologist

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Honesty is Best Policy. Broadcasting Uncertainty. Honesty is Best Policy ... Honesty is Best Policy. Good conservative science works best over a career. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: By Tom Mahoney, Chief Meteorologist


1

Broadcasting Uncertainty
What are some ideas that will help communicate
the uncertainty of a forecast while still
remaining authoritative?
By Tom Mahoney, Chief Meteorologist
2
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
3
A if certain
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
4
A if certain B fairly certain
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
5
A if certain B fairly certain C could
go either way
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
6
A if certain B fairly certain C could
go either way D anybodys guess
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Back in the 1960s a well known weather
broadcaster would grade his forecasts.
7

Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
8
Yes !
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
9
Choose one forecast and stick with it !
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
10
Hope its correct.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
11
Chances are 50 50to less than 100.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
12
When Im right, no one remembers when Im wrong
no one forgets.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
13
Or
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
14
Gee, I wish I could have a job and be wrong so
often.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
15
Remember that baseball players have to get a hit
only one time out of three to make it to the
Hall of Fame!
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
16
No
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
17
Present multiple scenarios
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
18
If time does not allow for this, choose one and
follow the Yes column.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
19
If time DOES allow for this, the audience can
help verify the options.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
20
Comments will be, He or She said that this
might happen..
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
21
Comments will be, He or She said that this
might happen, and it did!
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
22
This will give the audience ownership of the
forecast. It will invite them in as part of the
decision making process.
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Weaken Credibility?
23
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Rain?
24
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
25
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Midwest forecasters Rule of Thumb Use the 540
thickness
26
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Not always 100
27
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Rain seldom needs extreme accuracy, but snow.?
28
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
lt1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-4 3-5, 4-8, 6-10, up to
10, 6-12, 8-12, over 10, over 12, 1 foot or
more
29
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
All of the above and then some
30
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Drifting vs. not
31
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Lake enhanced, or not
32
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is an AFTERcast
33
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is an AFTERcast Snow overnight,
accumulating between a trace and over 20 inches
34
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Believable?
35
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is the verification
36
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Snow?
Here is the verification
37
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
Tease future Broadcasts or Briefings
38
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
At 6 tease the 10 or 11 pm broadcast
39
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
At 10 or 11 pm tease the morning broadcast
40
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
Give the viewer a reason to come back for more
41
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
In some cases tease your broadcast on another
outlet
42
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Use the uncertainty to your advantage
Such as your website or radio
43
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Honesty is Best Policy
44
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Honesty is Best Policy
Extravagance or Out on a Limb may work in the
short term, but is detrimental in the long run.
45
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Honesty is Best Policy
Good conservative science works best over a
career.
46
Broadcasting Uncertainty
Thank you. Questions and Comments?
By Tom Mahoney, Chief Meteorologist
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