Global Warming: DC Metro Region Outlook

1
Global WarmingDC Metro Region Outlook

• Raghu Raghavan
• DC Metro Science for the People

2
Agenda

• Global Warming Problem
• Facing Facts
• Potential Impacts of Climate
• Change on DC Metro Region
• Recommended Solutions

3
No Debate Anymore

• Global Warming largely generated by human
  activity
• Global Warming Threat Serious
• Consensus about CO2
• Emissions Reduction

4
DC Metro Area Growth Predictions

• 1.6 Million New Residents between 2005 and 2030
• 1.2 Million new jobs
• Outer suburbs expected to grow faster(47)
• Regional Core growth rate(18 20)
• Source Metropolitan Washington Council of
  Governments (COG) http//www.mwcog.org/

5
Projected Growth in Regional Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Under a Business As Usual Scenario

• Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
  July 2008 Review Draft

6
2005 GHG Emissions Estimates for DC Metro Region
Source DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Projection for the
Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
7
2020 GHG Emissions Estimates for DC Metro Region
Source DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Projection for the
Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
8
2030 GHG Emissions Estimates for DC Metro Region
Source DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Projection for the
Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
9
Predicted Effects of Global Warming in DC Metro
Region

• Higher Air and Water Temperatures
• Increased but Uneven
• Precipitation
• Rising Sea Levels
• Increase in weather
• extremes

10
Predicted Effects of Rising Sea Levels

• The impacts of rising sea levels on the
  Chesapeake Bay and its rivers include
• a) Heightened risk and vulnerability of
  inundation of wetlands and other low-lying lands
  by storm surges and coastal flooding
• b) Saltwater contamination of fresh water used
  for drinking water and irrigation for some
  smaller communities utilizing water from the
  Potomac estuary and
• c) Degraded water quality in the Bay and its
  tributaries, potentially increasing the risk of
  harmful algal blooms that thrive from runoff,
  harming fish and crab populations

Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
July 2008 Review Draft
11
Rising Temperatures

• Plants and animals currently
• in the southeastern U.S
• may migrate north into
• the Mid-Atlantic.
• More frequent and
• severe forest fires
• expected, threatening
• ecosystems and human
• settlements.
• .

Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
July 2008 Review Draft
12
Rising Temperatures

• More frequent heat waves.
• Occurrence of high ozone days.
• Higher temperatures
• produce favorable
• conditions for
• ozone-producing
• chemical reactions

Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
July 2008 Review Draft
13
Local Effects (DC Specific)

• Air pollution's negative health impacts
• Leading cause of ozone and smog
• One in ten adults and children suffer from asthma
  
• Typical summer in DC sends 2,400 people with
  respiratory related diseases to the hospital and
  causes 130,000 asthma attacks
• American Lung Association has rated DC's air
  quality as an "F

Source http//www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL2
0071001.htmlDWS
14
Local Effects (DC Specific)

• Air pollution's negative health impacts
• Damage to children's lungs
• Birth defects affecting heart
• Harm to the fetus linked
• to low birth weights
• and cancer later in life
• Damage to the
• cardiovascular system
• increasing the risk
• of heart attacks

Source http//www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL2
0071001.htmlDWS
15
Rising Temperatures (Water)

• Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), would be
  adversely impacted by higher water temperatures.
• Higher water temperatures, if coupled with both
  increased pollutant runoff in the spring (as a
  result of changes in precipitation patters)
• and higher air temperatures
• during summer months - will
• likely lead to increased
• frequency and duration of
• algal blooms.
• Lead to
• degraded water quality

Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
July 2008 Review Draft
16
DC Metro Region CO2 Emission Reduction Goals

• COGs Climate Change Steering Committee
  recommends establishing regional greenhouse gas
  reduction goals for three target years
• 2012 to force early action,
• 2020 a medium-range goal to encourage
  expansion of recommended policies and
  programs, and
• 2050 a long-range goal to stimulate support
  for research into technologies and clean fuels
  needed to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions.

Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
July 2008 Review Draft
17
DC Metro Region CO2 Emission Reduction Goals

• COGs Climate Change Steering Committees
  Recommended goals are to reduce greenhouse gas
  emissions by
• 10 below business as usual by 2012
• 20 below 2005 levels by 2020 and
• 80 below 2005 levels by 2050.

Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
July 2008 Review Draft
18

Comparison of Projected Regional Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Under BAU and Proposed Emission
Reduction Scenarios 20052050
Source National Capital Region Climate Report.
July 2008 Review Draft
19
Solutions Roadmap?
20
Potential Solutions

• No consensus on solutions
• Science on solutions clouded by special interests
  
• Clean Coal
• Nuclear Energy
• Ethanol from Corn

21
Taking Action Mitigating Emissions From Energy
Consumption

• Improve energy efficiency,
• Reduce demand for energy, and
• Develop clean (alternative) energy sources.

22
Taking Action DC Metro Area Residential Sector

• Accounts for 33 of total energy demand
• Weatherization,
• Using of efficient appliances,
• Installation of programmable thermostats
• High efficiency lighting.

23
Taking Action DC Metro Area Commercial/Industrial
Sector

• Commercial Sector 46
• Industrial Sector 9
• High efficiency lighting
• Using of efficient appliances
• Improving the energy performance of commercial
  buildings can reduce building energy consumption
  by 10-30 percent.

24
Taking Action Expand Local Renewable Energy
Sources

• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Geothermal

25
Take Action DC Congestion Charge?

• A congestion charge is a payment required of
  drivers (or owners of vehicles) to enter a
  designated area of a city, usually the core
  business area which has the most traffic.
  Reduces traffic
• Air pollution levels and
• Carbon emissions
• Used in a growing number of cities around the
  world (e.g., London, Bergen (Norway), Stockholm
  (Sweden), and Singapore).

Source http//www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL2
0071001.htmlDWS
26
Take Action DC Congestion Charge?

• Spike in carbon emissions from 2001 to 2005
• Two times the national rate
• Increases commuting
• from the suburbs

Source http//www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL2
0071001.htmlDWS
27
Congestion Charge (London)

• London experience with its congestion charge
  shows its significant benefits
• Traffic congestion has been reduced 30,
• Carbon dioxide emissions declined by more than
  15,
• Reductions in nitrogen oxide (8) and
  particulates (7).
• Revenues accrued went to subsidizing the London
  Underground and bus use,
• Students now ride free,
• Bus system being expanded,
• Quickest and cheapest way to increase mass
  transit capacity.
• The next stage will include emission-based
  charging, targeting SUVs and other vehicles with
  the highest carbon emissions.

Source http//www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL2
0071001.htmlDWS
28
Cost of congestion, and revenues to reduce it

• Annual cost of congestion in the DC estimated to
  be as high as 3.2 billion.
• Resources for the Future estimates 60 million in
  revenue would result from a 4.70 toll for
  entering the downtown area,
• Reduces congestion costs by 94 million per year.
• Just as London, DC should use congestion charge
  revenues to expand bus service and progressively
  lower their cost to riders.

Source http//www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL2
0071001.htmlDWS
29
Environmental, economic andsocial justice are
inseparable

• Nearly 30,000 DC households are at or below 50
  of poverty level
• 11,000 live between 50 and 74
• 10,000 live between 75 and 99
• DC Households earning under 50 of the Federal
  Poverty Level pay 49.8 of their annual income
  for home energy bills.

Source Fact Sheet 17-492, The Clean and
Affordable Energy Act of 2008
30
Environmental, economic and social justice

• Greatest benefit to its working class majority
• Low and middle income
• residents
• Particularly their children

31
Other steps to reduce air pollution and carbon
emissions

• Enforce and improve the idling laws
• Implement a parking surtax
• Require businesses to give their workers a
  cost-of-travel bonus if they travel by public
  transportation
• Implement a hybrid and then fully electric
  conversion program for the replacing the
  Districts taxis.
• Encourage bicycle use by expanding bike lanes

Source http//www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL2
0071001.htmlDWS
32
Conclusion