THE%20ORANGE%20REVOLUTION%20and%20DEMOCRATIC%20CHANGE%20in%20UKRAINE

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THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in
UKRAINE

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Agenda

• What is Ukraine? An overview
• The Orange Revolution and its historical
  preconditions
• Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy
• Why these elections were so important?
• What were the main issues of presidential
  campaign 2004?
• What is going to change in Ukraine?
• What to take home? QA

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UKRAINE

• The biggest country in the East Central Europe
• - territory 603,5 thousand km2
• - population 47,280,800,000 people
• A multiethnic country more than 130
  nationalities
• 24 oblasts Autonomous Republic of Crimea
• exit to 2 seas Black, Azov
• mountains Carpathians, Crimean
• major rivers Dnipro, Dnistro, Dunay, Prut, Bug,
  Donets
• Neighbors Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (the EU),
  Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey (the future EU),
  Belarus, Russia, Georgia, (the CIS)

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UKRAINE (continued)
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UKRAINE (continued)

• GDP growth 12 in 2004
• Areas of strong specialization mineral
  production, oil and energy products, chemical
  products, mechanical equipment, machines,
  electrical equipment, transport and road
  equipment, black metals, textiles, polymeric
  materials
• Main trade partners CIS, EU, Africa, Asia
• FDI USD 7761,5 mln

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UKRAINE (continued)
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Ukrainian History

• Kyiv Rus
• Cossacks military state
• Bohdan Khmelnitskiys Hetmanate
• Ukrainian Peoples Republic
• Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic
• Ukraine
• Have been re-divided among Lithuania, Poland,
  Austro-Hungary, Russia, Romania, Czechoslovakia
• Have always been fighting for freedom

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Elites and elections

• 1991 presidential elections Leonid Kravchuk.
• CPU apparatchiks red directorate
• 1994 presidential elections Leonid Kuchma
• Red director business clans
• 1998 parliamentary elections
• Communist party red directorate

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Business Groups in Ukraine
System Capital Management
Interpipe
Industrial Union Donbass
Pryvat
Interpipe Key personality Viktor Pinchuk,
Kuchmas son-in-law. Personal wealth USD1.5
bln. Political representation Trudova Ukraina,
ex-Head of NBU, ex-Minister of Economy Media
assets controlled ICTV, Ukrainian Media-Holding
(newspapers, radio stations) Industrial Union of
Donbass Key person Mr.Taruta. Personal wealth
USD1.2 bln. Political representation ex-Prime
Minister (Viktor Yanukovych), ex-minister of fuel
and energy, ex-presidents advisor System
Capital Management Key person Renat Akhmetov.
Personal wealth USD2.5 bln. Political
representation Regions of Ukraine Media assets
controlled TRC Ukraina, Internet
web-sites Pryvat Key person Ihor Kolomoyskiy.
Personal wealth USD2.2 bln. Political
representation Trudova Ukraina, ex-head of
Presidential Administration (Viktor Medvedchuk),
ex-Head of NBU Media assets controlled by
Medvedchuk Inter, 11, newspapers, radio
stations, Internet web-sites
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BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)

• STRENGTHS
• Strong influence on politics through political
  representation
• Control over major production areas in Ukraine
• Access to President Kuchma
• Control over media assets securing control over
  public opinion

• WEAKNESSES
• Lack of consolidation (groups compete in business
  and political influence)
• Various extents of dependence on Kuchma
• Concentrated allocation (East of Ukraine
  Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkov)

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Areas of Business Groups Competition
System Capital Management Industrial Union of Donbass Interpipe Pryvat
Metals Metal Mining Coke Metals Metal Mining Coke Metals Metals Metal Mining Coke
Pipes Oblenergos Machine building Pipes Ferro alloys Oblenergos Machine building Ferro Alloys
Telecoms Mass Media Telecoms Mass Media Telecoms
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Elites and elections (continued)

• March 1999 the leader of opposition dies in a
  car crash
• October 1999 presidential elections Leonid
  Kuchma
• VS
• Leonid KUCHMA Petro SYMONENKO
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  (leader of Communists)
• ( Russian scenario Yeltsin vs Ziuganov)
• Intrusion of Russian political technologists

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UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000

• Vyacheslav Chornovil
  Georgiy Gongadze
• REFERENDUM Ukraine a presidential republic?
• The people said YES? Falsifications
• MELNICHENKOS TAPES
• Kuchma was selling missiles to Iraq?
  International pressure
• MASS PROTESTS KUCHMAS IMPEACHMENT!?

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Viktor Yuschenko

• Successful banker
• 19961999 - Head of the National Bank of Ukraine
• Stopped inflation
• Introduced Hryvnya
• Avoided financial crisis of 1998
• 2000 Prime Minister
• Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9
• Eliminated barters
• Paid salary and pension debts
• Pressed the business groups
• Weaknesses mildness, tendency to loosing
  momentum

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Elites and Elections (continued)

• 2002 parliamentary elections Nasha Ukraina,
  bloc of Viktor Yuschenko
• A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME!
• Opposition fails to form a majority
• Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of
  Presidential Administration

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Viktor Yanukovych

• Head of the Donetsk State Administration
• Head of the Donetsk Oblast Council
• 2002-2004 - Prime Minister
• Increased economic growth to 12
• Increased salaries and pensions
• Fought the crop and fuel crises
• Weaknesses 2 criminal convictions, close links
  to unpopular regime and business groups

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CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

• The last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after
  elections
• Constitution of 1996
• PRESIDENT Prime Minister
  PARLIAMENT
• Proposed changes (2004)
• President PRIME MINISTER
  PARLIAMENT

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ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004

• The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected
  is a real danger for the business groups
• Business groups unite their resources and
  influence to support Yanukovych
• Russia resumes its pressure

Funds (Renat Akhmetov) Media (Viktor Pinchuk) Russian polittechnologists (Viktor Medvedchuk) growth of Yanukovychs rating from 4 to 30
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CAMPAIGN 2004

• 26 candidates
• Technical candidates
• Access to media and resources
• Rejected to most of the candidates but one
• Positioning of the major candidates
• Busy Prime Minister vs Peoples candidate
• Attempts at murdering the candidates
• Poisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg scandal of
  Yanukovych

• Violations of electoral law
• Falsifying signatures
• Using administrative resource
• Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia supporting
  one of the candidates)
• Exceeding campaign financial limits
• Applying political technologies
• Playing on differences between East and West of
  Ukraine
• Raising pensions and salaries inflation
• Preventing Yuschenko from coming to the Eastern
  regions
• Creating false images of candidates (Yuschenko -
  fascist)

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RESULTS
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RESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION

• Yuschenko is the President of Ukraine
• Ukraine has become famous in all of the world
• Ukraine is going to be a parliamentary republic
• Ukraine has declared a course towards democratic
  reforms
• Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all of
  the key authorities
• The pressure of Russia has decreased
• Ukraine has cleared its external course EU

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WHAT TO TAKE HOME

• The Orange Revolution is a result of many years
  evolution of Ukrainian politics and economy
• The Orange Revolution is the third democratic
  change of elites in Ukraine
• The Orange Revolution has reshaped Ukraines
  position in Europe and the CIS

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FOR MORE INFO

• www.pravda.com.ua
• www.bbc.co.uk/ukrainian
• www.cvk.gov.ua
• www.ukrstat.gov.ua
• www.president.gov.ua
• www.yuschenko.com.ua
• www.ya2004.com.ua