Climate Change and Biodiversity Robert T' Watson MA Board Cochair Informal Joint Meeting of the CBD

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Climate Change and BiodiversityRobert T.
WatsonMA Board Co-chairInformal Joint Meeting
of the CBD SBSTTA and UNFCCC SBSTA, Montreal
November 30, 2005
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Key design features of the MA
MA ?

• Political legitimacy

Authorized by four conventions and UN
Scientific credibility
Follows IPCC procedures
?
Utility
Focus strongly shaped by audience Strong
sub-global features
?
CMS
CBD
CCD
Ramsar
FCCC
SC
SBSTTA
STRP
CST
SBSTA
IPCC
MA
Research, UN Data, National and International
Assessments
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MA Facts

• Number of Working Groups (Condition, Scenarios,
  Responses, Sub-global) 4
• Number of chapters 81
• Number of pages (all publications) 3,000
• Number of experts preparing the assessment 1,360
  (including 50 young fellows)
• Number of countries with experts involved 95
• Number of Review Editors 80
• Reviews solicited from 185 countries through 600
  national focal points
• Reviews solicited from 2,516 experts
• Number of individual review comments received
  (and responded to) 20,745
• Most individual comments on one chapter 850
  comments (66 pages) on Biodiversity responses
  chapter.
• Amount raised 17 million
• Annual cost as percent of US Global Climate
  Change Research Budget 0.2
• Estimated total cost (including in-kind
  contributions of experts) 25 million

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MA Conceptual Framework

• Indirect Drivers of Change
• Demographic
• Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy
  framework)
• Sociopolitical (governance and institutional
  framework)
• Science and Technology
• Cultural and Religious

• Human Well-being and
• Poverty Reduction
• Basic material for a good life
• Health
• Good Social Relations
• Security
• Freedom of choice and action

• Direct Drivers of Change
• Changes in land use
• Species introduction or removal
• Technology adaptation and use
• External inputs (e.g., irrigation)
• Resource consumption
• Climate change
• Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g.,
  volcanoes)

Life on Earth Biodiversity
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What was unique?
Ecosystem services

• Regulating
• Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem
  processes

Cultural Non-material benefits from
ecosystems
Provisioning Goods produced or provided by
ecosystems
Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom)
Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA,
unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid,
Staffan Widstrand
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Converting an ecosystem means losing some
services and gaining others e.g., A mangrove
ecosystem
housing
shrimp
Provides nursery and adult habitat , Seafood,
fuelwood, timber traps sediment detoxifies
pollutants protects coastline from erosion
disaster
crops
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Valuation of Ecosystem Services

• The total economic value associated with
  managing ecosystems more sustainably is often
  higher than the value associated with conversion
• Conversion may still occur because private
  economic benefits are often greater for the
  converted system

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Core Questions

• What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change?
• What are the consequences of ecosystem change for
  the services provided by ecosystems and for
  human-well being?
• How might ecosystems and their services change
  over the next 50 years?
• What options exist to conserve ecosystems and
  enhance their contributions to human well-being?

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MA Scenarios
World Development
Globalization
Regionalization
Proactive Reactive
Environmental Management
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Main Findings

• Humans have radically altered ecosystems in
  last 50 years
• 2. Changes have brought gains but at growing
  costs that threaten achievement of development
  goals
• 3. Degradation of ecosystems could grow worse but
  can be reversed.

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The Balance Sheet to date
Enhanced
Degraded
Mixed
Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon sequestration
Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic
resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality
regulation Regional local climate
regulation Erosion regulation Water
purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural
Hazard regulation Spiritual religious
Aesthetic values
Timber Fiber Water regulation Disease
regulation Recreation ecotourism
Bottom Line 60 of Ecosystem Services are
Degraded Provisioning services are being enhanced
at the cost of regulating cultural services
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Climate and Biodiversity

• Key conclusions regarding the interactions
  between climate and biodiversity

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Key Conclusions

• There is wide recognition that human-induced
  climate change is a serious environmental and
  development issue and in conjunction with other
  stresses threatens ecological systems and their
  biodiversity
• The Earth is warming, with most of the warming of
  the last 50 years attributable to human
  activities precipitation patterns are changing,
  and sea level is rising. The global mean surface
  temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees
  Celsius over the last 100 years, and is projected
  to increase by a further 1.45.8 degrees Celsius
  by 2100. The spatial and temporal patterns of
  precipitation have already changed and are
  projected to change even more in the future, with
  an increasing incidence of floods and droughts.
  Sea levels have already risen 1025 cm during the
  last 100 years and are projected to rise an
  additional 888 cm by 2100
• Observed changes in climate have already affected
  ecological, social, and economic systems, and the
  achievement of sustainable development is
  threatened by projected changes in climate.

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Trends in Drivers of Ecosystem Change
Trends in Drivers
Source Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Habitat Loss to 1990
Habitat Loss to 2050 under MA Scenarios
Mediterranean Forests
Temperate Grasslands Woodlands
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Tropical Dry Forest
Tropical Grasslands
Tropical Coniferous Forest
Tropical Moist Forest
0 50
100
Percent of habitat (biome) remaining
Source Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Temperature Change (oC) from 1990
1.5 5.7 oC
Source IPCC 2001
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Hot Spots of Biodiversity
Climate change challenges the concept of small
isolated protected areas
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Change in Species Diversity
Number per Thousand Species
100 to 1000-fold increase
Extinctions (per thousand years)
Source Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Climate impacts on cereal production
capacity, ECHAM4 2080s, Rain-fed multiple cropping
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Recent Findings (post MA)

• Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater
  clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts
  of climate change
• A number of increased concerns have arisen
• Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the
  oceans capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and
  effect the entire marine food chain
• An increase in ocean surface temperature of 1oC
  is likely to lead to extensive coral bleaching
• Reversal of the land carbon sink possible by
  the end of the Century
• A regional increase of 2.7oC above present
  (associated with a temperature rise of about
  1.5oC above today or 2oC above pre-industrial
  level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland
  ice-cap impacting all coastal ecosystems and
  human settlements
• Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice
  sheets becomes more likely above 3oC the Larson
  B ice shelve is showing signs of instability
• The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may
  slow down or even shut down one study suggested
  that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a collapse
  within 200 years, while another study suggested a
  30 chance of a shut down within 100 years

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The Risks of Climate Change Damages Increase with
the Magnitude of Climate Change
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Key Conclusions

• Based on the current understanding of the climate
  system, and the response of different ecological
  and socioeconomic systems, if significant global
  adverse changes to ecosystems are to be avoided,
  the best guidance that can currently be given
  suggests that efforts be made to limit the
  increase in global mean surface temperature to
  less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
  levels and to limit the rate of change to less
  than 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.
• This will require that the atmospheric
  concentration of carbon dioxide be limited to
  about 450 parts per million and the emissions of
  other greenhouse gases stabilized or reduced
• This optimistically assumes that the climate
  sensitivity factor is in the middle or lower end
  of the range (1.5-4.5 degrees C)

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Recent Findings (post MA)

• Probability analysis suggests that to limit
  warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels with a
  relatively high certainty requires the equivalent
  concentration of carbon dioxide to stay below
  400ppm
• Stabilization of the equivalent concentration of
  carbon dioxide at 450ppm would imply a medium
  likelihood of staying below 2oC above
  pre-industrial levels
• If the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide
  were to rise to 550ppm it is unlikely that
  warming would stay below 2oC above pre-industrial
  levels
• The World Energy Outlook (2004) predicts that
  carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 63
  over 2002 levels by 2030. This means that in the
  absence of urgent and strenuous actions to reduce
  GHG emissions in the next 20 years, the world
  will almost certainly be committed to a warming
  of between 0.5oC and 2oC relative to today by
  2050, i.e., about 1.1oC and 2.6oC above
  pre-industrial

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Key Conclusions

• If a long-term target were to be established,
  intermediate targets and an equitable allocation
  of emissions would be needed
• The technologies of today (energy production and
  use, carbon capture and storage, and biological
  sequestration) can put us on the right track
  until about 2050, but significant improvements
  will be needed after this time, hence the need
  for an aggressive energy RD program
• Realizing the technical potential to reduce
  greenhouse gas emissions will involve the
  development and implementation of supporting
  institutions and policies to overcome barriers to
  the diffusion of these technologies into the
  marketplace, increased public and private sector
  funding for research and development, and
  effective technology transfer
• Such a target will send a strong signal to the
  private sector, governments and the research
  community that there will be a market for
  climate-friendly technologies

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Warming resulting from different stabilised
concentrations of greenhouse gases
pre-industrialized level - 280 ppm, current level
- 370 ppm

• Temperature change relative to 1990 (C)

Temperature change relative to 1990 (C )
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9
Temperature change at equilibrium
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8
Temperature change in the year 2100
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
550
450
650
750
850
950
1000
450
550
650
750
850
950
1000
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
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Key Conclusions Adaptation

• Adverse consequences of climate change can be
  reduced by adaptation measures, but cannot be
  completely eliminated
• Even with best-practice management it is
  inevitable that some species will be lost, some
  ecosystems irreversibly modified, and some
  environmental goods and services adversely
  affected
• Assess and act upon threats and opportunities
  that result from both existing and future climate
  variability, including those deriving from
  climate change
• Adaptation to climate change must be part of the
  development process and not separated from it
  must be integrated into national economic
  planning
• Existing capacities, (national governments to
  local communities) which are often weak, form the
  starting point for anticipatory adaptation
  actions
• The capacity to adapt is closely related to how
  society develops with respect to technological
  capability, level of income and type of
  governance

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Findings and data MAweb.org Island Press

• Publications
• Synthesis Reports
• Synthesis
• Board Statement
• Biodiversity Synthesis
• Wetlands Synthesis
• Health Synthesis
• Desertification Synthesis
• Business Synthesis
• Technical Volumes and MA Conceptual Framework
  (Island Press)
• Ecosystems and Human Well-being A Framework for
  Assessment
• State and Trends
• Scenarios
• Multi-Scale Assessments
• Responses

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Synthesis Reports
Board Statement
MA Conceptual Framework
Technical Assessment Volumes