The Way Home: Protracted Displacements and Return

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The Way Home Protracted Displacements and
Return  

• Djordje Stefanovic (Saint Marys University,
  Halifax)
• Neophytos G. Loizides (University of Kent)
• Conflict Research Society, Leeds 2014

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The Return Home Puzzle

• What explains voluntary yet difficult decisions
  of victims of ethnic cleansing to return home
  despite
• the passage of time and new opportunities
• hostile local authorities
• opposition from new occupants/settlers
• What explains variation in initial intentions and
  actual return outcomes?

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Global Importance

• Global Forced Displacement tops 50 Million for
  First Time in post- World War II Era (UNHCR,
  2014).
• Figures reflect rapid escalation of conflicts in
  the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa as well as
  about 30 protracted refugee situations affecting
  some 6.4 million refugees (UNHCR, 201312)
• Contradictory evidence as to whether return is
  feasible or in some cases even desirable (Jansen,
  2009 Adelman Barkan, 2011)

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Irreversibility Thesis

• Adelman and Barkan are probably the strongest
  proponents of the irreversibility thesis we aim
  to question in our work.
• They emphatically argue that the ideology and
  commitment to return conveys the notion of
  repatriation as a distant, impractical solution
  in the face of real desperation (Adelman and
  Barkan 2011xvii).

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Hypotheses

• Fear of Violence (Lake Rothchilld, 1996
  Walter, 1999)
• Individual Level Predictors
• age, war time loss, gender
• Contextual Factors
• settlers, composition of village/city, security
  forces
• Better Life, Employment and Financial
  Alternatives (Zetter, 1994 IGC, 2002)
• Memories of Home (Hammond, 1999 Loizos, 2009
  Jansen, 2009)
• Social Capital community effort hypothesis
  (Putnam, 1993 Varshney, 2001)

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Research Design

• Quantitative Analysis
• Measuring intentions (Cyprus) vs. outcomes
  (Kurdish and Bosnia data)
• Representative samples (Cyprus and Bosnia) and
  non-representative (Turkey)
• Qualitative Analysis
• Data Collection
• Participant observation and qualitative
  interviews (local elites, (non) returnees and
  new occupants/ settlers)
• Secondary reports and press coverage

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Findings Dissimilarities

• Contrary to conventional wisdom the data suggest
  that economic advancement and social integration
  increase willingness to return home (Greek
  Cypriot sample)
• Integration in a new environment in Western
  Turkey, measured by economic advancement and
  knowledge of Turkish, reduces the likelihood of
  return (Kurdish sample)
• Returnees with a better educational profile tend
  to be more likely to return to their ancestral
  lands in Greek Cypriot and Kurdish samples, but
  not in Bosnia

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Findings Common Patterns

• Older men are more likely to be returnees
• Community return matters. Especially, among Kurds
  and Bosnians there is a strong impact on the
  chances of individual return

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Thank you