The Goal: To increase awareness about the organisation, its environment and the future.

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The GoalTo increase awareness about the
organisation, its environment and the future.
The future
Scenarios (Imagining the future)
Strategic options (Exploring our future
possibilities)
Increasing awareness
The business ecosystem
The organisation
Co-evolution (Discovering our place
relationships)
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Tools for Difference Future

• A Clear- enough future
• A Single forecast precise enough to determine
  strategy
• Traditional strategy toolkit

• Alternative Future
• Few discreet outcome that define future
• Decision Analysis
• Game theory

• True Ambiguity
• No basis to forecast the future
• Analogies and Pattern recognition

• A range of Future
• Range of possible outcomes, but no natural
  scenario
• Technology forecasting
• Scenario Planning

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A Business Ecosystem
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A way of viewing the world

• A scenario is a sequence of events
• Businesses and computer systems can be viewed as
  sequences of events / activities
• Sequences interact
• Life is complicated, but you need a way of
  finding your way through

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10 years from now it is possible that
Who would have imagined 5 years ago that

• Asean 3
• First Thai female prime minister
• Electric cars
• Moon Base
• ?
• ?
• ?

• 9/11
• Thaksin Carbinet
• Asia FinancialCrisis
• SARS
• ?
• ?
• ?

E
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Prediction is difficult.even for experts
The horse is here to stay but the automobile is
only a novelty. President of Michigan Savings
Banks, 1903 (advising Henry Fords lawyer not to
invest in the Ford Motor Company)
Automobiles will start to decline as soon as the
last show is fired in World War 22. Instead of a
car in every garage, there will be a
helicopter. Aviation publicist, Harry Bruno, 1943
I think there is a world market for above five
computers IBM Chairman, Thomas Watson, 1943
There is no reason for any individual to have a
computer in their home Digital Equipment
President, Ken Olsen, 1977
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The right question..
The only relevant discussions about the future
are those where we succeed in shifting the
question from whether something will happen to
what would we do if it did happen
Arie de Geus Former Head of Group Planning, Shell
International
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What is a scenario?
An interpretation of the present and an
archetypal image of the future and an internally
consistent story about the path from the present
to the future
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Scenarios can be used ..

• To aid in the recognition of weak signals of
  change
• To avoid being caught off guard - live the
  future in advance
• As a language for discussion - and to challenge
  mental maps
• To understand the world better - and make better
  decisions
• To test strategies for robustness - with what
  if questions

E
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Scenario Analysis

• Breaks complex systems into simple components
• Provides structure to the analysis
• Is used as the basis of further analysis and
  design in the development of activity diagrams
  and sequence diagrams

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Companies use scenarios to..

• Sensitise managers to the outside world
• Provide valuable insights
• Deal with uncertainty
• Challenge mental maps
• Provide internal language

Develop better strategies
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Typical Approaches to Scenario Development
Discussion and debate - with or without source
data
System Change - evaluation of every parameter
under different conditions (e.g. treasury model)
Driving Force - identification and assessment of
the fundamental influencing factors
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Developing Scenarios Using Driving Forces
Gather Data
Identify Driving Forces
Build Scenarios
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Scenario development in practice The three Ps

• Define the nature of the scenario Product
• Identify the key Participants
• Follow a clearly defined Process

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Brainstorming and Clustering SessionKey
issues and potential policy areas II
Oil storage water / land pollution Risk
Energy policy not devolved
Political Imperative
Stakeholder Pressure
Demographic Changes
Government must Coerce?
Partnerships
Legislation
Disbenefits of EU Legislation
Integrated Policy
Presentation V Substance
Public Perceptions Communications
Politics / People
Environment truly becomes political issue
Open Discussion transparency
Sustainable Development Legislation?
EU Legislation level playing field or Env. Impact
Point of use
Media
Indifference
Concentration of Regulation
Poor Housing Stock
Short-termism
Customer Choice
Customer demands lower cost
Win / Win ò Lose / Win
Customers are prepared to pay
Environment Becomes Competative issue
Planning Issues may affect rollout of
new E-opportunities
2010 ?
Talk is it a Value or Waste
Pressure Groups
Economics
Buy-in Employees Customers
Demand Growth
/ t C
Rate of Response
SME Inertia
Long Term Planning
Misguided / Informed ?
Spin off economic development
Customer Aspirations Increasing
Customers will not accept retrograde steps
Competition / Public Service (Water)
Do we know baseline?
Inertia / Awareness
Expectation Business V Public
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Priority issues in environment over the next 25
years
high
Uncertainty
low
low
E
high
Relative Importance
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Priority issues in environment over the next 25
years
high
Public Awareness
Surprises
Partner-ships
Structures
Long term Planning
Pressure Groups
Media
Uncertainty
Resources
Economics
Politics/ People
Legislation
E -Activity
Waste
Behaviour
Technology
Environmental Impact
low
low
high
Relative Importance
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Strategic optionsOur future possibilities

• Key strategic issues
• What are the real areas which affect our
  business?
• (E.g. service, channel, market)
• Formulate key decision areas
• Where do decisions need to be made?
• Create clusters of options
• Discover coherent strategies
• Check against distinctive competencies

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Strategic option generationone approach
Existing
New

• PROTECT/BUILD
• Withdrawal
• Consolidation
• Market penetration

• SERVICE DEVELOPMENT
• Existing competencies
• New competencies

Existing

• MARKET DEVELOPMENT
• New segments
• New territories
• New uses

• DIVERSIFICATION
• Existing competencies
• New competencies

New
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ScenariosImagining the future

• Identify key driving forces
• Choose most uncertain/most significant
• Develop alternatives
• Flesh out with narrative

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Identify key driving forces
Note which key external drivers are both
important uncertain
Driver 2
Driver 1
Driver 5
Driver 3
Driver 4
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Formulate yes-no questions
Driver 2
Driver 5
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The IS Matrix
CONTROL
3 . Options
4. Decisions
CERTAINTY
UNCERTAINTY
1. Rules of the Game
2a. Key Uncertainties
2b. Scenarios
ABSENCE OF CONTROL
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Scenarios for the US
CONTROL
3 . Options
4. Decisions
Homeland Security Steel tariffs
Agricultural subsidies
Constructive engagement Isolation
CERTAINTY
UNCERTAINTY
1. Rules of the Game
2a. Key Uncertainties
Nuclear terrorism Disintegration of
world order
Demographics Globalisation Global
Climate Change Potential for epidemics
New technological wave We live in one world
Nature of warfare has changed
2b. Scenarios
Friendly Planet Gilded Cage
ABSENCE OF CONTROL
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Develop future time line for each scenario

• Map out critical events leading to the unfolding
  of this scenario enabling you to
• Scan for triggers which will alert you to the
  scenario
• Rehearse your strategic responses to the events
  of the scenario

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Cross-impact matrix

• Test each option against each scenario.

Learning
S
W
M
P
I
SWOT analysis is one useful tool
O
T
de Bonos Plus/Minus/ Interesting is also good.
Add learning points and actions required.
Actions
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Are scenarios the answer?
The Organisation
Business Ecosystem
Overview
Reflections

• Do scenarios help?
• Shell used them effectively
• IBM General Motors did not
• Why not?
• Diversity
• Is there enough diversity in planning process?
• Culture
• Is the culture open to new thinking doing?

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Strategic intent
The Organisation
Business Ecosystem
Overview
Reflections

• Strategic intent must inform all of
  organisational life
• Strategic intent must take account of the
  realities of the organisation and its environment
• Strategic intent is more important than strategy

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J. C. Glenn and T. J. Gordon, 'The Millennium
Project Issues and Opportunities for the
Future', Technological forecasting and social
change An International Journal, North-Holland,
New York, vol. 61, no. 2, June 1999, pp. 97-208.

• sustainable development for land, water and
  oceans through energy efficiency actions
• long-term perspective planning at personal,
  corporate and political levels
• population growth rate checked through female
  rights and education programs
• peace paradigm for coexistence extending economic
  cooperation across regions
• science for appropriate-technology in genetics,
  biotechnology information systems
• global ethics and thinking assisted by literacy,
  education and medical support
• democratic institutions, reconciliation, freedom,
  equity and self-determination
• non-violent conflict resolution with United
  Nations reform and global cooperation
• ecologically based agriculture predicated on
  alternative progress indicators, and
• global philosophies, value systems and thought
  towards environmental security.