The%202008%20Election%20in%20Retrospect%20as%20a%20Guide%20to%20the%20Latino%20Political%20Future

1
The 2008 Election in Retrospect as a Guide to the
Latino Political Future

• Latinos and the 2008 Elections
• Lecture 14
• November 18, 2008

2
Exam November 20

• Essay (60 percent)
• IDs You answer four from six that I select from
  the list I distributed
• The essay and the list of possible IDs posted to
  the class web site
• Tips
• Essay use all sources class, readings,
  readings posted to the web site reference the
  author if you can
• IDs both define and state a significance to the
  study of Latinos and the 2008 elections

3
The Question on Every Pundits Tongue

• Is 2008 a Realigning Election? Numbers Offer
  Some Clues
• - RealClearPolitics.com, November 11, 2008
• In the more extreme form A Permanent
  Democratic Majority?
• -Salon.com November 13, 2008

4
Review Realigning Election

• Election or series of elections where one
  routinely dominant coalition is replaced with
  another
• Current era
• 1968 present routinely divided government
• 1980 present Republican dominance of the
  executive branch and dominant ideology of
  shrinking the size and scope of government

5
Does 2008 Presage Change?

• Yes, but realignments rely not just on a critical
  election, but the ability to provide the change
  that voters seek
• So, whats interesting in the short term about
  2008 is set of governing resources that
  President-elect Obama can tap
• Most noted among these by pundits is combination
  of strong Latino support and growth in the Latino
  electorate

6
Change in the Democratic Governing Coalition

• 2006 and 2008, Democrats gain
• 12 U.S. Senate seats
• 50 U.S. House seats
• 300 state legislative seats
• House and state legislative gains concentrated in
  the Southwest and the border South
• and among 18 to 30 year old voters
• Kerry -- 9 points
• Obama -- 34 points

7
Change in National Ideology, 1995-2008
8
In This (Support for a Greater Government Role in
Peoples Lives), the Nation in Coming Around to
the Latino Position

• Is this a short-term reaction to the world
  economic collapse?

9
Change in the Electorate, By County 2004-08
counties Pop. Growth 2000-07 Latino
Dem. 10 or more 1,173 8 18
Dem. 5-10 714 6 9
Dem. 0-5 550 5 8
Rep. 0-5 280 4 5
Rep. 5-10 173 5 3
Rep. 10 or more 225 1 2
10
2008 as a Realigning Election?

• Something that we can know only after we see the
  relative success of
• Obama administration efforts to enact policy
• Popular reactions to those policies
• An important test will be
• Degree to which issues of importance to Latinos
  shape the Obama policy agenda
• Seriousness with which Obama continues to court
  Latino support

11
Regardless of the Long-Term Significance of the
2008 Elections

• How will the Latino Voice be felt?

12
What We Know About the Future

1. Latino populations will grow
2. Intra-Latino diversity will increase
3. The Latino presence will expand in new parts of
   the United States
4. The first (immigrant) generation will make up a
   declining share of the Latino population
5. In the short term (and probably the long term),
   Latinos will need to rely on coalitional politics
   to achieve their political and policy goals

13
Population Composition, 2000-2100 (current
immigration levels)
14
State Minority Populations, 2000-2025
42
57
25
15
Immigrant/Native Shares Latino Population
16
Latino Age Composition, 2000
Immigrants / U.S. Born
17
Generational Composition of Hispanic Population
1960-2030
18
Be Care in Reading Too Much Into These Changes,
Latino Identity in Flux

• Even if current trends continue
• Race/ethnic identities change
• Latino identity faces four challenges
• Rise of second and third generations
• Pan-ethnicity
• Decline in the salience of ethnic identity
• Emergence of institutionally sanctioned and
  recognized multi-racial/multi-ethnic identities

19
Population Growth Ensures that Latino Influence
Will Increase

• But,
• It will not grow as quickly as population
  resources for mobilization low
• Competition for Latino political support often
  weakened by structural factors outside
  communitys control
• Community leadership is weak and not growing
• Consequence
• Risk of alienation
• Confusing distance with exclusion

20
So

• The future is bright
• But, the future may be further away than many
  believe
• If that future is too far off, many will move
  away from a Latino identity
• Immigration continually reinforces identity
• Immigration reforms, if implemented, will
  likely reduce immigration, particularly Mexican
  immigration
• 2nd and beyond generations will make up
  increasing share of the Latino population
• Will Latin America / Latino identity be of
  importance, particularly if immigration declines?