The Outlook for Energy

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The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030 Impact Of
Global Geopolitics
Florida International University29th Annual
Journalist Editors Workshopon Latin America
and the Caribbean Latin Americas Energy Future
Presented by Dr. Eduardo G. Del Valle EGDV
CONSULTANTS, INC Miami, May 5, 2011
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Energy sources evolve new technologies have huge
influence on both supply and demand
Global Demand By Fuel
1980 First U.S. windfarm consisting of 20
turbines built in New Hampshire
Quadrillion BTUs
Standard of living improved dramatically over
past century driven by technology and abundant
energy. By 2030 demand projected at 6 times
1950 level with increasing diverse energy mix
GDP 20 times 1950 level
Other Renewables
Nuclear
1901- First gasoline-powered automobile mass
produced
Hydro
Gas
1954 Modern silicon solar cell invented
1884- First steam turbine
Oil
1859- First oil well drilled in Titusville, PA
Coal
Biomass
1800
1900
2000
1850
1950
Source Smil, Energy Transitions ExxonMobil
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Energy Outlook Basis
100 countries
15 demand sectors
20 fuel types
technology policy
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Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook

• Resource nationalism is making access to new
  reserves more difficult and/or more costly
• Examples Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador,
  some African countries
• Revolution in communications is increasing
  societal expectations in less developed countries
  and social pressures for more freedom and a
  better life are building
• 400 million Chinese with capacity to move from
  bicycle to vehicles. From cooking with wood to
  cooking with electricity
• India will follow
• Cumulative environmental impact?
• Chinese oil companies aggressiveness in pursuit
  of new energy reserves is pre-empting Western Oil
  companies from economically accessing new
  supplies.
• Prrivate sector companies cannot compete with
  promises of additional Chinese government
  assistance for economic and social development
• Up to now Western government have abastained from
  reacting, but will this posture last?

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Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook

• The complex corporate social difficulties that
  arise working in unstable political/social
  environments that are prone to corruption and
  human rights violations
• What is the appropriate responsibility of oil
  companies to ensure that human rights are
  respected and the monies generated from their
  investment are properly channeled for economic
  development
• Should Western democracies develop legal
  protocols to assist oil companies in these
  complex balancing acts
• Combination of producing countries budgetary
  pressures coupled with climate change
  uncertainties are making longer term planning and
  capital investment decisions increasingly complex
  and risky
• Non-Opec production has been unable to keep up
  with growth in demand not a good sign
• Legal and regulatory framework Climate change
  lesgislation, subsidies, environmental
  restrictions, government mandates and taxation
• Middle East Instability where will it lead?
• There is no known technology today that is
  expected to have any major impact in altering the
  projected energy mix by 2030

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Population Improved Standard of living Drives
Energy Demand Growth
Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion
Trillion 2005
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 2030 0.9
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 2030 2.8
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 2030 1.2
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Economic Growth Fastest in Non-OECD
GDP
Trillion 2005
Average Growth / Yr. 2005-2030
China and India grow at 6/yr
Other Non OECD
Africa
Middle East
Non OECD 4.9 40 of GDP by 2030
Latin America
India
China
Other OECD
OECD 2.0
Europe OECD
United States
Source ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
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Expanding Economies Drive demand up by 35
OECD
Non OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Non OECD demand up gt 70. Higher electricity
demand and increased vehicle ownership due to
rising prosperity
OECD energy demand flat due to increased energy
efficiency, even as GDP rises 60
Other
Africa
Middle East
Other
Latin America
India
Europe OECD
China
United States
Source ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
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Demand by Sector --Efficiency is key
Demand would have grown by 84 MBDOE were not for
efficiency gains
Quadrillion BTUs
300
1.7
2030
Transportation consumes 70 of oil demand
0.9
167
2005
1.3
0.3
Transportation
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Energy Efficiencies to Accelerate
Efficiency gains saves 55 MBDOE
Rate of energy efficiency improvements expected
to dramatically accelerate by 50 driven by
higher prices and advances in technology
Source Energy Information Administration
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Transportation Demand Grows 40
Light Duty Demand
Demand
Growth heavily concentrated in Asia. Rising
personal income produces steep increase in
vehicle ownership, up by 80 by 2030
MBDOE
400 million vehicles more than today, but demand
offset by efficiency gains
Rail
Marine
Aviation
Commercial
Heavy Duty
Personal
Light Duty
Source ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
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Electricity Demand will grow by 80
By Region
By Sector
k TWh
Demand will grow 150 in NonOECD in conjunction
with broader prosperity and rising income
Transportation
Commercial
Residential
Other Industry
Heavy Industry
Source ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
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Future U.S. Power Costs
Baseload, Startup 2025
2010 cents/kWh
0/ton CO2
30/ton CO2
60/ton CO2
PV
Thermal
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Power Generation Mix Evolves
Global Capacity
Global Capacity Utilized
GW
Wind
Nuclear
Solar
15
Power Generation by Fuel
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
Natural Gas and Coal willshow the greatest
growth. 90 of new power gen in China will be
from Coal.A big impediment and source of
conflict with the objective to reduce GHG.
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Source ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
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Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Emissions per Capita
By Region
Tons per Person
Billion Tons
Energy related CO2 emissions inNon-OECD
countries exceed by 40 those of OECD, and are
doubling those of OECD by 2030
2005
2010
2030
Other Non OECD
India
China
OECD
Source ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
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Global Demand by Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil, Gas and Coal will still provide over 80 of
total energy demand by 2030
World Average Growth/Yr. 05 to 30 1.2
0.7
2.0
2030
0.7
2005
2.3
0.4
2.1
9.9
Source ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
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Global Liquids
Liquids Supply
Dependence on OPEC will continue to grow
2030
OPEC
Non-OPEC
2005
27
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Development Challenges and Solutions
Increase Efficiency
World development continues, while lives improve
and economies grow
8 billion people 100 increase in global GDP 35
increase in energy demand 300 quadrillion BTUs
saved via efficiencyor equivalent to 55
MBDOE All reliable, affordable energy supplies
needed
Expand Supplies
Mitigate Emissions