Design Protocols and Risk Management in Complex Projects with Applications to Water Desalination, Clean Water and Clean Energy Systems

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Design Protocols and Risk Management in Complex
Projects with Applications to Water Desalination,
Clean Water and Clean Energy Systems
MIT KFUPM
(PI) Prof. Warren Seering
Prof. David Wallace
Prof. Maria Yang
Dr. Victor Tang
Dr. Josef Oehmen
Prof. Anwar Khalil Sheikh (ME)
(PI) Prof. Abdel-Salam M. Eleiche (ME)
Prof. Iyad Talal Alzaharnah (ME)
Prof. Abdulaziz Bazoune (ME)
Prof. Mohammed Ben Daya (SE)
Prof. Muhammad Fahad Al-Salamah (SE)
KFUPM, January 2010
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Background and Motivation

• Background
• Engineering design transforms customer needs into
  physical products or systems
• If product or system requires more than a few
  people to develop, structured processes should be
  used to orchestrate work
• Large body of research on processes, but in
  practice, projects laden with inefficiencies
• Key decisions made during early phase of system
  development
• Mistakes very costly
• Ricoh 35 problem in early phase 17,000 in
  mfg 690,000 at customer (Hamada 96)
• Few risk management methods for early phase of
  product development
• Motivation
• Provide framework for utilizing existing and new
  knowledge bases and methods of design and risk
  reduction in the domain of clean water and clean
  energy

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Project initiatives
Technology Readiness
Risk Management
Design Requirements
Research areas
Links to other KFUPM-MIT Projects
Educational Impact Risk Mgmt Laboratory
Education
Integration with Saudi Industry Partners
Outreach
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Activities to date

• Identification of project initiatives
• Development of a project Wiki (CMS) on the
  Internet
• Five videoconferences from October to December
  2009
• Visit by Dr. Josef Oehmen of MIT to KFUPM on
  7-18 December 2009
• Seminars by Dr. Oehmen to ME and SE Depts
• Round-table discussions with three SA Industry
  partners on 10 January 2010

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Risk Management in Product Design and Development
(PDD)
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Risk Management in Product Design and Development

• Goal
• Understanding overall risk in the value chain
  through factors that can be addressed in PDD
• Project areas
• Considering balancing risks in a portfolio of
  product development projects
• Improving risk management in PD to reduce risk in
  down stream processes

Collaboration with suppliers
Product distribution
Early stage design
Sales and marketing
Production ramp up
Risk
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Current work Literature review

• Focus in the areas of
• Risk management in single product design projects
• Risk management of product design project
  portfolios
• Integrated risk management across different
  engineering domains (e.g. PD, production, and
  service)
• 50 papers and books reviewed so far

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Summary of Conclusions and Research Gap

• Findings from literature
• No design process framework and corresponding
  methods for risk management in PD
• No comprehensive methods for different phases of
  risk management process
• New ISO31000 important in developing risk
  management reference processes
• Observations for research
• Product development managers have to manage
  portfolios of PD projects, but no structured
  approaches
• The integration of risk management and product
  development practices remains an important and
  not sufficiently investigated field of research

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Design requirements
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Design Requirements

• Design requirements balance vision of
  stakeholders (users, development team,
  regulators).
• Shared understanding of product goals
• Examples
• The plant must operate under wind speeds of X
  kmh
• The laptop must operate after a drop of Y
  meters
• Good design requirements difficult to create
• Integration of customer/market needs with
  engineering considerations
• Limited methodologies
• Research areas
• Process of formulating design requirements
• Categories of risks in requirements
• Changes in requirements over time

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Strategies for generating design requirements

• Elements of design requirements
• Customer and user needs, market data
• Engineering characteristics
• Informal strategies (interviews, surveys) or
  structured (QFD)
• Different practices at different companies
• Research goals
• Literature review and observations of design
  requirements in industry/case studies
• Categorization of strategies for design
  requirement generation
• Metrics for design requirement completeness
• Controlled studies of design teams generating
  design requirements

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Understanding risk in design requirements

• Ways to specify risks in design requirements?
• Risks inherent in any design requirement
• Risk of defining a requirement incorrectly
• Risk of omitting a design requirement
• Risk of not meeting the requirement
• Interactions among risks
• Others
• Which are important to evaluate?
• Research goals
• Define categories of risk in design requirement
  specification
• Evaluate design requirements and risks generated
  in industrial settings
• Controlled studies of design teams generating
  design requirements

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Flexibility in specifying design requirements

• Design requirements often change over time
• New information during development
• Ideal design team maintains shared understanding
  during changes
• What does flexibility in design requirements
  look like?
• Set-based design (Ward, et al 90)
• Research goals
• Track how design requirements change over time
• Industry settings
• Laboratory environment
• Metrics for flexibility in design requirements

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Technology readiness levels
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• Technology Readiness Levels
• What is it? Origin? Generic uses?
• The Original Model/Use Description.
• Other Models/Applications.
• Our objectives?

NASAs TRL Scale
www.wikipedia.com
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The TRL Origin/Primary Purpose/Uses
Definition

• They are a scale that describes the maturity of a
  technology with respect to a particular use-
  Scale from 1 (least mature) to 9 (most mature).

• NASA developed (in early 1990s) a new standard
  the Technology Readiness Level or TRL to assess
  the maturity of evolving technologies
  (especially related to the sustainable energy
  technologies).

Origin
Primary Purpose

• To help engineers, technology development
  managers, and researchers make decisions
  concerning the development and transition of
  technology.

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Original Model/Use Description
A Classical Model for a Technology Product the
Development Generally Includes Following
Successive Stages
NASAs Description TRLs represent a systematic
metric/measurement system that supports
assessments of the maturity of a particular
technology and the consistent comparison of
maturity between different types of technology.
basic research
TRL 1 Basic principles observed and reported
Focused Technology Development
The Traditional NASA TRL Levels
Technology Development Demonstration
TRL 9 Actual system flight proven through
successful mission operations
System Development
Reference John C. Mankins (Advanced Concepts
Office of Space Access and Technology NASA)
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Other Articulated Models
The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) Model
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Model

• Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) model,
  which consists of three sequential steps
• - Identifying the Critical Technology Elements
  (CTEs).
• - Assessing the Technology Readiness Level
  (TRL).
• as an intermediate stage in the
  technology development process
• - Developing a Technology Maturation Plan (TMP).

The European Space Agency Model
Generic Technology Readiness Assessment Steps
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The Technology Readiness Level Initiative

• Objectives
• Developing an understanding through implementing
  on ongoing selected projects (A preliminary
  questionnaire has been developed-It has been
  implemented on some of the ongoing projects from
  MIT side).
• Developing strategic next steps that might be
  taken to advance the technologys readiness,
  and/or mitigate technology readiness risks.
• The recommendation for advancing technology
  readiness can be further enhanced by
  incorporating proven methods for product
  requirement specification and risk management in
  product development.

Published Applications in Technical (technology)
Research

• FUSION ENERGY
• Plasma and Power Flow in a Reactor
• NEXT Ion Propulsion System,

LeGresley et al 2000
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Collaboration with other KFUPM researchers

• Preliminary evaluation of metric with two
  KFUPM-MIT faculty on their projects
• Initial TRL metric adapted from NASA
• Prof. Evelyn Wang
• Prof. Rohit Karnik
• Initial findings
• Different aspects of the same technology may have
  different TRL levels
• Define the end goal of doing the TRL metric

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Education The Quality, Reliability and Risk
Management Lab

• Goals
• To establish a state of the art Quality,
  Reliability and Risk Management lab at KFUPM
• To develop educational modules in the areas of
  quality, reliability, and maintenance,
  manufacturing, and risk management.
• Objectives of the lab
• Provide state-of-the-art extensive suite of
  quality, reliability and risk management
  software, research documentation and expertise
  to support the research project
• Enhance the capacity of KFUPM researchers to
  help their industrial partners and potential
  clients in terms of quality, reliability and risk
  management in product development and allied
  areas in operations of products and systems.

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Education The Quality, Reliability and Risk
Management Lab

• Objectives, cont
• Support teaching activities involving ME and SE
  departments with respect to relevant courses and
  industrial training programs
• Support teaching activities by providing tools to
  enhance existing and new courses at both ME and
  SE departments in the area of quality,
  reliability, manufacturing and maintenance and
  industrial training programs
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• Develop several teaching (learning) modules, that
  can benefit from the research outcomes of the
  project and are within the scope of proposed lab
• Develop two training modules (or short courses)
  for industrial partners in the area of quality,
  reliability and risk management in product
  development and operations management

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Engaging Saudi Industrial Partners

• Understand project initiatives in context of real
  world problems
• The success of most is driven by product
  innovation, adaptation, and customization
• Representatives of Aramco RD Center, SABIC and
  Al-Zamil Group attended the January 10, 2010
  Industry Round Table Meeting and met with the
  KFUPM-MIT team
• Preparing for a Workshop with potential
  Industrial Partners to be held in March or April

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KFUPM-MIT Engineering Design Roundtable January
10, 2010

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• Thank you!