Climate Change' What does it mean for our region

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Climate Change.What does it mean for our region?
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• So what is climate change?

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• Greenhouse gases are a natural part of the
  atmosphere.
• Human actions (eg burning fossil fuels,
  agriculture and land clearing) increase
  concentrations above natural levels.
• The resulting Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
  contributes to a warming of the Earths surface.

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Global Evidence of Rapid Change

• Melting ice sheets caps
• Melting glaciers
• Melting permafrost
• Freshening of North Atlantic Ocean Southern
  Ocean around Antarctica
• Ocean acidification
• Atmospheric circulation changes
• Ecosystem changes

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Observed Changes in Australia

• Average temperatures have increased by 0.9oC
  since 1950
• Frequency of hot nights has increased and cold
  nights has declined
• Rainfall declines on the east coast, Victoria
  south west Australia
• Rise in extreme rainfall events
• (Source CSIRO (2007). Climate Change in
  Australia)

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Observed Changes in Australia

• Droughts are hotter (both minimum and maximum
  temps)
• Maximum winter snow depth has decreased slightly
  and spring snow depth by about 40
• Average sea level rise of 1.2 mm per year (1920
  2000)
• Substantial warming of the 3 oceans surrounding
  Australia
• (Source CSIRO (2007). Climate Change in
  Australia)

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Climate Change Projections

• Average increase in temperature of 1oC (0.7-0.9oC
  coast, 1-1.2oC inland) by 2030
• Annual rainfall decreases between 2-5 by 2030
  but little change in northern Australia
• Increased drought occurrence over most of
  Australia
• Substantial increase in fire weather risk
• Increased storm surge, inundation and wave damage
  from higher sea levels more intense weather
  systems
• Increased cyclone intensity, but reduced
  frequency
• More extreme El Nino events
• (Source CSIRO (2007). Climate Change in
  Australia)

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Attitudes to Climate Change
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Implications of Climate Change
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Implications for Local Government

• The implications of climate change for councils
  are substantial diverse and will vary between
  councils
• Liability may arise through compensation or
  common law negligence due to a breach of the duty
  of care (Planning Institute of Australia 2004)

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Implications for Local Government

• Infrastructure property services
• Road pavement construction maintenance
• Stormwater / drainage / levees
• Buildings (cooling costs, damage)
• Coastal infrastructure
• Land Use and Development
• Natural Resource Management
• Coastal management
• Weeds / pest management
• Biodiversity

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Implications for Local Government

• Health Safety
• Community / workplace health
• Emergency / bushfire management
• Water Sewerage
• Stormwater / sewerage
• Wastewater
• Water supply
• Recreational facilities
• Provision maintenance
• Impacts on local economy

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Responding to Climate Change Managing the Risk
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Mitigation Responses

• Aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce
  the impacts of climate change
• Often achieved through improved efficiency and
  technological improvements

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The Stern Report

• The evidence is overwhelming climate change is a
  serious global threat and requires an urgent
  global response
• The benefits of strong early action far
  outweigh the economic costs of not acting
• The overall cost of climate change impacts will
  be around 5 of GDP every year, and possibly up
  to 20
• Climate change impacts have the potential to
  cause social and economic disruption comparable
  to the Great Depression and two world wars
• In contrast, the cost of taking action to reduce
  emissions to reduce impacts can be limited to 1
  of GDP per year.
• The costs of stabilising the climate are
  significant but manageable, delay would be
  dangerous and much more costly.

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Adaptation Responses

• Recognises that the impacts of climate change are
  inevitable
• Aims to identify and reduce the risks and costs
  posed by these impacts and to strategically plan
  for their management.
• Similarly to mitigation, taking early action will
  ultimately reduce the cost of both impacts and
  adaptation strategies in the longer term.

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Adaptation Case Study 1 Hunter Beef Industry

• Value 114.6 million (8.4 of NSW production)
• Potential risks
• Heat stress, high water consumption reduced
  production) from higher average temperatures and
  high temperature days
• Reduced pasture growth stock water from more
  variable rainfall and drought conditions
• Adaptation Strategies
• Introduction of drought and heat tolerant pasture
  species and animal breeds.
• Access to multiple holdings in widely different
  climatic zones

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Adaptation Case Study 2 Hunter Wine Industry

• Value 202,733,855 in wine sales, 1,722 FT
  1,284 PT employees
• Potential Risks
• Reduction in optimal ripening times
• Reduced water availability lower yields
• Changes in varietal suitability
• May become too hot to produce commercially
  acceptable wines
• Damage from extreme weather events
• Adaptation Strategies
• Changes in wine styles
• Alternative growing regions

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Adaptation Case Study 2 Community Health
(Heatwaves)

• Potential Risks
• Heatwaves cause more deaths than any other
  natural hazard apart from disease (eg 1939 Black
  Friday bushfires (71 fire related deaths, 439
  from heatwave conditions).
• Cause significant strain on hospital and
  community health services
• Adaptation strategies
• Extended opening hours for air conditioned
  community facilities and swimming pools
• Provision of cool community spaces and
  facilities
• Incorporate in disaster management plans
• Target education to high risk groups (eg outdoor
  emergency workers the elderly)

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Local Government Responses to Climate Change

• Local government has an central role in
  responding to climate change across a diverse
  range of activities.
• Includes both mitigation and adaptation responses
• A multi stakeholder approach will be important to
  implementing effective responses to climate change

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Key Areas of Responsibility

• Sustainability leadership
• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
• Urban design land use planning
• Environmental natural resource management
• Asset management and maintenance
• Management of community open space
• Community involvement and education
• Emergency planning management
• Water supply and management
• Community health
• Research

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A Risk Management Approach

• A risk management approach is fundamental to
  identifying and planning for the likely impacts
  of climate change on council and the community
• Risk identification
• Risk Analysis
• Risk Evaluation
• Risk Treatment
• This approach reduces potential liability and can
  be integrated within councils overall risk
  management system to make it mainstream.
• Risk Management Guidelines based on the
  Australian and New Zealand Standard AS/NZ 4360
  Risk Management are available for business and
  government.

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Responses by Councils in our Region

• Cities for Climate Protection Program
• Energy Saving Action Plans
• REFIT Program
• AMEIF
• HCCREMS Regional Adaptation Project
• Networks Reference Groups
• LGSA Climate Change Project
• SCCG/CSIRO National Reference Group
• Climate Change Project Managers Network
• Hunter Energy Greenhouse Team
• Research (eg high resolution contour mapping in
  the coastal zone)

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Regional Climate Change Adaptation Project

• Obtain regional and sub regional scale
  information on how climate change will affect the
  region
• Raise awareness and understanding of the causes,
  impacts and inhibitors of climate change
• Raise awareness of the potential adaptive
  capacity of the regions community, government and
  industry sectors to adapt to climate change
• Facilitate the development and implementation of
  effective climate change adaptation strategies

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Conclusions

• Our climate has changed is changing will
  change in the future
• Evidence is compelling recently observed
  changes are faster than expected
• Cannot wait for full scientific certainty
• - it may be too late
• - challenge (and cost) will increase the
  longer we wait
• We dont have to believe in climate change but
  we should manage the risk