A forwardlooking review of the Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division SWFSC and its implementation of

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A forward-looking review of the Antarctic
Ecosystem Research Division (SWFSC) and its
implementation of the US AMLR Program

• 31 August 2 September 2009

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Welcome

• Thank you
• Personal introductions
• Logistics
• Agenda
• Monday Introduction, Krill and krill-dependent
  predators
• Tuesday Krill and krill-dependent predators
  contd., Finfish and benthic invertebrates, Marine
  biodiversity and spatial management
• Wednesday Follow-up interviews, reporting, etc.

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Outline

• Acronyms
• Straw man vision
• Terms of reference and an extended example
• Mandates
• Personnel
• Physical resources
• Budget
• A year in the life of the US AMLR Program

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Common Acronyms

• CCAMLR (Comm) Commission for the Conservation
  of Antarctic Marine Living Resources
• SC Scientific Committee
• WG-EMM Working Group on Ecosystem Monitoring
  and Management
• WG-FSA Working Group on Fish Stock Assessment
• WG-SAM Working Group on Statistics,
  Assessments, and Modeling
• CM conservation measure

• SSMU small-scale management unit
• CEP Committee for Environmental Protection
  (Antarctic Treaty System)
• MPA marine protected area
• VME vulnerable marine ecosystem

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Vision

• The AERD will meet NOAAs mandates and provide
  the best scientific information available to
  implement ecosystem-based management of living
  marine resources. We will achieve this objective
  by
• optimizing the maintenance and update of key
  time-series data and the conduct of project-based
  studies that fill important information gaps
• using new and improved sampling technologies to
  extend the scope of our work
• integrating and synthesizing data using best
  practice analytical approaches
• anticipating future needs for advice and threats
  to sustainability, including climate change
• working proactively to address these needs and
  mitigate these threats
• leading the scientific community through
  transparent, impartial, and accountable
  participation in committees, working groups, and
  partnerships
• training the next generation of scientists and
  building the scientific capacities of partner
  institutions and nations and
• communicating effectively with stakeholders and
  decision makers.

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Terms of reference (with an example)

• What this review is intended to achieve

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Terms of Reference 1

• Review needs for scientific advice related to
  ecosystem-based management of krill and finfish
  fisheries
• Evaluate ability of the AERD to provide advice
  given
• the design and conduct of its present research
  and monitoring efforts
• the financial and physical resources available to
  accomplish such work
• its present staffing level and expertise
• Identify areas where directed research, expanded
  field operations, and investments in new
  technologies can improve or expand advice

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Advise on Krill-Fishery Management
3 million tons 15 SSMUs ?
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Data ? Analysis ? Advice

• Historical catch
• Predator demand
• Krill biomass
• Krill surplus
• Monitoring

2002-03
2004-05
2008-09
2006-07
Lots of collaboration with BAS
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Gaps, Threats, and Opportunities

• Gaps and threats catalyze opportunities
• Fish are an area of considerable uncertainty.
• estimates of predator abundance were currently
  considered inappropriate because of the
  incomplete data .
• The Scientific Committee noted the generic
  nature of the concerns raised by and asked that
  they provide explicit details to the next
  meetings of WG-SAM and WG-EMM. This did not
  happen.
• GW is the main AMLR PI on the SSMU issue, but now
  he is Director

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Expansion and Climate Change

• Feedback management in which the spatial
  allocation is adjusted on the basis of monitoring
  holds promise when climate is changing

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Terms of Reference 2

• Review needs for scientific advice related to
  emerging issues (e.g., climate change and marine
  spatial planning)
• Evaluate whether traditional work constrains
  ability to advise on emerging issues
• Determine how the Program might be expanded to
  best advise on emerging issues while maintaining
  capacity to address traditional issues

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SSMUs within a Larger Spatial Mosaic

• Prioritized development of representative MPA
  network
• Should ensure future opportunities for fishing
• Many CMs have spatial elements (e.g., VMEs and
  new or exploratory fisheries)
• More robust to consider an overarching framework
  for spatial management (i.e., marine spatial
  planning)
• AERD has data and existing work fits within such
  a framework

SSMUs
Adapted from 2009 Report of WG-EMM Original work
by British Antarctic Survey
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Terms of Reference 3

• Identify ways to leverage resources and expertise
  with those of internal and external partners to
  build synergies that simultaneously address
  NOAA's broad interests in Antarctic research, the
  mandates of the US AMLR Program, and other
  national or international research programs

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Monitoring Synergies

• AERD monitors krill predators at 2 sites in 2
  SSMUs
• Feedback management seems to demand more
  monitoring
• Many sites are visited by tourists
• Coordination with CEP or other entities (e.g.,
  Oceanites) could be synergistic ? AERD
  representation on US del to CEP

Chinstrap colonies
Adapted from WG-EMM-08/8
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mandates

• Why we do our job

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Mandates

• AMLR Convention Act of 1984
• United States basic and directed research
  programs concerning the marine living resources
  of the Antarctic are essential to achieve the
  United States goal of effective implementation of
  the objectives of the Convention
• the Secretary of Commerce shall design and
  conduct the program of directed scientific
  research supplemental to and coordinated with
  the United States Antarctic Program

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Mandates Continued

• Article II of the Convention
• prevent decrease in the size of harvested
  populations to levels below those ensuring stable
  recruitment ( level that which ensures the
  greatest net annual increment)
• maintain ecological relationships between
  harvested, dependent and related populations and
  restore depleted populations to the levels
  defined above
• prevent changes or minimize risk of changes in
  the marine ecosystem which are not potentially
  reversible over two or three decades, taking into
  account the effects of environmental changes

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Mandates Continued

• Article IX of the Convention
• The Commission shall
• formulate, adopt and revise conservation
  measures on the basis of the best scientific
  evidence available, .
• Report of the CCAMLR Performance Review Panel
• Protected areas ? MPAs
• Status of living resources ? recovery plans,
  orderly development of krill fishery
• Ecosystem approach ? coherent and coordinated
  monitoring

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Other Mandates

• Magnuson Stevens Act enhance international
  cooperation
• provide recommendations to Dept of State
• strengthen regional fishery management
  organizations
• NOAA Annual Guidance Memo (5 Aug 2009) advance
  NOAAs capacity to support ecosystem-based
  management
• comprehensive marine spatial planning
• research the effects of climate change on ocean
  ecosystems

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Personnel, Facilities, and budget

• The resources (currently) available to do our job
  

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AERD Leadership

• George Watters Director
• Stephanie Sexton Deputy

• Mike Goebel Leader, Pinnipeds
• Christopher Jones Leader, Finfishes and benthic
  invertebrates
• Christian Reiss Leader, Krill and oceanography
• Wayne Trivelpiece Leader, Seabirds

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Personnel Continued

• Amy Van Cise Administration and scientific
  technician
• Anthony Cossio Acoustics and logistics (ships)
• Douglas Krause Pinnipeds and logistics (camps)

• Jefferson Hinke SCEP, Seabirds
• Vacant Stock assessment
• Raul Vasquez Del Mercado NOAA Corps, Camp
  manager and scientific observer coordination

11 FTEs 1 NOAA Corps 118 yrs cumulative
Antarctic experience
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Ships and Camps
Additional NSF support for Copa gt 160k/yr
includes mobilization
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Gaps, Threats, and Opportunities

• AUVs etc exciting but significant hurdles
• Trawlers (partner with Norway?) unique
  experiments, pelagic fishes easy, oceanography
  harder
• Other vessels difficult to schedule, costly,
  may need gt 1 platform, small ships lose time to
  weather
• ? other ideas?

?
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Gaps, Threats, and Opportunities

• US AMLR funds larger share
• Partner with Poland
• Seek new NSF funds more project-based work and
  proposal writing (less monitoring?)
• More technology, less hands on (many time series
  will be lost)

gt US AMLR
Copacabana
Australian Antarctic Division
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Budget
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Contracts and Grants (2009)

• Ship-based
• Oceanography (41k 2)
• Phytoplankton (63k 2)
• Krill and zooplankton (200k 7)
• Benthic invertebrates (33k 2)
• Finfishes (8k 2)
• Seabirds and marine mammals (40k 4)

• Land-based
• Copa Seabirds (80k 5)
• Cape Shirreff Seabirds (61k 3)
• Pinnipeds (57k 4)

pass-through funds from NSF may need to be
picked up by the AERD
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A year in the life of the us amlr program

• The time available to do our job

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The AMLR Field Season
field camps
research vessel field camps

• mobilize
• purchasing
• contracting
• permitting
• shipping
• packing

demobilize
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CCAMLR Meetings (baseline)
US Del
WG-SAM TASO WG-EMM
WG-FSA SC Comm

• prepare
• submit data
• write papers
• develop agendas
• read papers

US Del prepare
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2009 Other Commitments
SCAR
Gordon
SG-ASAM
CEP
WS-VME
GFDL GLOBEC
vessel solicitation, WS-VME and review
preparation, etc. not included
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The Leftovers

• Field season CCAMLR meetings typical
  commitments (2009) little free time
• Limited ability to participate in other meetings
  (e.g., ICED (SOS), SCAR, ASLO, ESA, etc.), write
  papers, etc.

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Wrap up
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Tradeoffs at Multiple Scales

• Small staff, increasing costs, and jam-packed
  annual calendar
• tradeoffs between field work, CCAMLR meetings,
  general science meetings, writing papers and
  proposals, etc.
• tradeoffs between field projects (e.g., go here
  vs. go there)

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Trigger Questions 1 GW Musings

• Is the current approach sufficient? What should
  be expanded? What should be de-emphasized?
• Current approach has been successful but could
  add mesopelagic fishes, increase winter studies,
  use technology to expand spatial and temporal
  coverage, and experiment with krill trawlers.
• Rotating people to CCAMLR meetings?
• How should the AERD balance the collection of
  time-series data with project-based studies?
• Critical to maintain time series because they
  provide context for interpreting future changes,
  but can Leg 2 always be project-based?

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Trigger Questions 2 GW Musings

• Are the AMLR survey areas and study taxa
  appropriate given the likely impacts of climate
  change?
• Expand coverage to the western Weddell Sea,
  consider winter field work?
• What specific aspects of climate change should be
  the focus of future research?
• Downscale IPCC scenarios with ROMS etc. and use
  output to predict changes in phenologies and
  distributions of animals, observe consequences of
  ocean acidification, work in marginal ice zone,
  identify robust management strategies and
  sensible reference points.

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AMLR Data sets

• Krill Oceo. ? Finfishes Benthic Inverts. ?
  Pinnipeds ? Seabirds

We have lots of collaborators