Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrs vritable Atlantique Is Nova Scotia Makin

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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - AtlantiqueIs Nova
Scotia Making Genuine Progress? An Overview of
Some Key Trends Halifax, 30 October, 2008
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Defining Genuine Progress

• Are there consensus values on the kind of Nova
  Scotia we want to leave our children?
• Health and wellbeing, safety and security, decent
  living standards, educated populace, access and
  inclusion, healthy environment and natural
  resources, strong and caring communities
• Beyond ideology

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From indicators to accounts

• What distinguishes GPI from other wellbeing
  indicator systems adds economic valuation
  component -gt moves towards accounting system
• In line with 5 capitals in OSP, which
  recognizes that social, human, and natural
  capital also have value -gtaccounting framework
• And EGSPA Recognizing the economic value of
  Nova Scotias environmental assets is essential
  to our long-term prosperity.

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-gt A new accounting system

• This new accounting framework allows assessment
  of full economic, social, and environmental costs
  and benefits, of cost-effectiveness of
  alternative policy options
• vs existing accounting system Social, human,
  natural capital ignored and their depletion
  misleadingly measured as gain anything can
  make economy grow regardless of OSP/Weaving
  Threads goals

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A mixed picture

• Improvements in employment, real income, income
  equity (inclusion), poverty reduction, provincial
  debt status, waste and air quality (20-year
  timeline), smoking rate, GHGs..
• Declines or insufficient progress (in relation to
  targets) in agriculture, forests, fisheries,
  ecological footprint, energy shift, wealth
  equity, obesity, volunteering, student debt..
• Just a few examples follow

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Official unemployment rates, Canada and Nova
Scotia, 1976-2007
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Official unemployment rates by region, Nova
Scotia, 2001 to 2007
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Disposable Household Income (Richest Poorest
20) Canada and Provinces, 1981-2004 (2004)
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Average disposable (after-tax) economic family
income by quintile, adjusted for family size,
Canada and Nova Scotia, 1976-2006 (2006)
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Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs
base), total population, Canada and Nova Scotia,
1997-2006
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Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs
base), selected groups, Nova Scotia, 1997-2006
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Gini coefficients of after-tax income, all family
units (economic families and unattached
individuals), Canada and provinces, 1981 to 2004
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Civic and voluntary work, average hours per year,
total population, 15 years and older, Canada and
provinces, 1992, 1998, and 2005
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Free Time, Nova Scotia and Canada, 1992,1998,
2005 (hours per day)
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Share of population indicating high time stress,
NS and Canada, 1998 2005
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Crime rate, total incidents per 100,000
population, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1962-2007
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Crime rate comparison NS and Canada rates of
increase, 1962-2007 (1962100)
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Crime rates (per 100,000 population), by offence
breakdown, Nova Scotia, 1962-2007 Crime cost
700 million/year
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Youth crime rate per 100,000, aged 12-17, Canada,
provinces and territories, 2006
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Change (Percent) in Total After-Tax Income
(19992004) and Median Debt Value (19992005),
Canada
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Net Worth by Wealth Quintile ( Trillions, 2005
Constant ), Canada, 1999 and 2005
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Share of Wealth (Percent), by Net Worth Quintile,
Canada, 1999 and 2005
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Current Youth Smokers, aged 1524, Canada and NS,
19992005
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Percentage Decline in Tobacco Use, Canada
Provinces, 1999-2005
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Measured obesity rates by province, aged 18,
2004
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Overweight and obesity rates by province,
children, aged 2 -17, 2004
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Percentage of population aged 12 and over
diagnosed with asthma, both sexes, Canada and
provinces, 2007
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Average amount of government student debt at time
of graduation (2000 CDN), Classes of 1990, 1995,
and 2000, Canada
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Percentile scores of correct answers to general
political knowledge questions, by age group,
1984, 1993, 1997, 2000
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• Total Farm Cash Receipts, NS, 19712007 (Millions
  of 2007)

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Total Net Farm Income, Nova Scotia, 19712007
(millions of 2007)
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• Expense to Income Ratio (),
• Nova Scotia Farms, 19712006

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Total Net Farm Income and Total Debt, NS Farms,
1971-2006 (millions of 2007)
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• Debt to Net Income Ratio,
• Nova Scotia Farms, 19712006

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• Solvency Ratio, Nova Scotia, QC, and Canadian
  farms, 19712006

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Fishery GDP for Nova Scotia, 1984-1999 (1997
millions)
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Value of cod stocks, Eastern Scotian Shelf
region, 1972-2002, (2007 millions).
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Lobster landings in Nova Scotia, 1972-2007
(metric tonnes)
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Mean trophic level (weighted by landed weight) in
Nova Scotia Fisheries, 1972-2007
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Estimated total biomass of porbeagle shark in the
northwest Atlantic, 1961, 1991 and 2001
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Employment trend in Nova Scotia fisheries,
1987-2007
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Age distribution of Nova Scotian fishers,
1931-2006
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Protected areas, Nova Scotia, 2007
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Total area harvested and area clearcut, Nova
Scotia, 1975-2005, (hectares)
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Percentage of area harvested by clearcutting,
1975-2005
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Value-added per cubic metre of wood harvested, by
province, 1998 2004, (2007)
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Nova Scotia Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (kt of
CO2 equivalents), 1990-2006
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Per capita GHG emissions, Canada, provinces,
territories, 2006 (kt of CO2 equivalents)
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2006 NS greenhouse gas emissions broken down by
sector (kt of CO2 equivalents)
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Major sources of GHG emissions, Nova Scotia, 2006
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NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 1990-2006,
compared to NS EGSPA target for 2020
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NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 1990-2006,
cf Suzuki Fdn. emissions target for 2020
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Cumulative potential damage cost avoidance
through achieving the NS Environmental Goals and
Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation
Targets (based on graduated emission reductions
from 2008-2020)
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Cumulative potential co-benefits through
achieving the NS Environmental Goals and
Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation
Targets (based on graduated emission reductions
from 2008-2020)
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Control cost estimates of meeting the NS
Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity
Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on
graduated emission reductions from 2008-2020)
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Summary of damage avoidance benefits and control
costs in year 2020 and cumulatively 2008-2020,
(C2005 mill.)
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Cost-effectiveness

• Every 1 invested in reducing GHG emissions
  through 2008-2020 will save 29 in avoided
  damages.
• When control costs are subtracted from benefits
  attained by avoiding climate change damages and
  achieving co-benefits (cleaner air), net
  cumulative benefit of achieving EGSPA greenhouse
  gas emissions target by 2020 is 846 million
• Meeting the Suzuki target will produce a net
  cumulative benefit of 1.8 billion
• Stern "The benefits of strong, early action on
  climate change outweigh the costs."

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Energy use, final demand, terajoules (TJ), Nova
Scotia, 1978 to 2006
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Power generation fuel mix for Nova Scotia Power,
1993-2006
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Total road passenger movement, in Nova Scotia,
1990-2006 (millions of passenger-km)
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Total road passenger movement, NS, by vehicle
type, 1990 to 2006
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Total GHG emissions from transportation, NS, 1990
to 2005 (kt CO2 equivalents)
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Number of fatalities and injuries from road
accidents per 100,000 residents, Nova Scotia,
1990 to 2005
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Modal share (percentage) of transportation to
work, Nova Scotia, 1996-2006
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Reducing NSs Ecological Footprint eg)
Transportation

• Drive less, walk cycle more, use public
  transport, car-pool. Switch from 1/car -gt 4/car,
  3 days/week, reduces commuting footprint by 45
• Coordinated land use/transportation planning is
  essential to bring about any substantial shift in
  transportation patterns

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Indicator Nova Scotia Criteria Air Contaminant
Emissions (kg/capita) 1990-2005
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NS Footprint Projected to 2020
Figure 16, The Nova Scotia Ecological Footprint,
GPI Atlantic 2001
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Can we do it?Percentage Waste Diversion in Nova
Scotia
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Full cost Accounting Results

• The new NS solid waste-resource system in 2000-01
  produced net savings of at least 31.2 million,
  when compared to the old 1996-97 solid
  waste-resource system
• This translates into savings of 33 for each Nova
  Scotian, versus a cost of 25 as suggested when
  comparing strictly the operating and amortized
  capital costs of the two systems

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Benefits

• Total benefits of 2000-01 system range from 79
  million to 221 million 84-236 pp, incl
• 3.3 - 84.3 million in GHG emission reductions
• 9 - 67 million in air pollutant reductions
• 18.8 million in extended landfill life
• 28.6 million in energy savings from recycling
• 6.5 - 8.9 million in employment benefits
• 1.2 - 1.9 million in avoided liability costs
• 1.1 - 1.7 million in export revenue of goods
  and services
• 187,000 in additional tourism

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Energy savings per tonne of waste recycled
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Costs

• Total costs of 2000-01 solid waste-resource
  system were 96.6-102.7 million
• 72.4 m. in operating and amortized capital costs
• 14.3 m. for beverage container recycling prog.
• 2.7 million for used tire management program
• 1.6 million in RRFB operating and admin costs
• 5 - 9.5 million to increase participation
• 220,000 - 1.8 million in nuisance costs

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Conclusions Accounts

• 1995 NS Solid Waste-Resource Strategy has led to
  a considerable net benefit, both in monetary and
  non-monetary terms
• The solid waste-resource system in 2000-01,
  despite increased operating and amortized capital
  costs, provided a net savings of between 31
  million and 167.7 million compared to the
  operating and amortized capital costs of the old
  system

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Indicators of Genuine Progress

• diversion from landfills lt5 -gt 50
• Access to curbside recycling in Nova Scotia
  jumped from less than 5 in 1989 to 99 today
• 76 of residents now have access to curbside
  organics pickup
• Access highest rates in the country
• This is genuine progress

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Conclusions Indicators

• Nova Scotia is a leader both internationally and
  nationally in solid waste diversion.
• The accessibility, comprehensiveness, and levels
  of waste being composted and recycled have all
  improved since the introduction of the Solid
  Waste-Resource Strategy.
• BUT backsliding Diversion 50 (2000) -gt 36
  today (a/c NS DOE) 41 (Statcan)

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Per capita solid waste disposal (kg) for Canada
and provinces, 2004 and 2006
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Diversion rate of waste by province and
territory, 2004 and 2006
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Per capita solid waste disposal (kg per capita
per year), Nova Scotia, 1996/97-2006/07
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Residential recycling rate, Canada and provinces,
2000-2004
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Percent of residents who compost, Canada and
provinces, 1994 and 2006
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Volunteerism Atlantic Provinces lead (formal
rate)
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Measuring What we Value - Leaving a Sustainable
and Prosperous Nova Scotia for our Children
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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - Atlantique

• www.gpiatlantic.org