Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency

1

• Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
• G-363
• Hurricane Readiness
• for Coastal Communities

2
Unit 1 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Identify the course instructors and participants
  
• List course goals and overall objectives
• Discuss the course agenda and schedule
• Describe the course materials and
• Explain the classroom ground rules and
  administrative procedures.

1-2
3
Unit 1 Course Introduction

• Administrative Details
• Introductions
• Course Overview

1-3
4
Administrative Details

• Lunch and other breaks
• Restroom and telephone locations
• Emergency exits
• Smoking policy
• Pager/cell phones on silent

1-4
5
Course Background

• Hurricane Readiness Challenges
• Areas are vulnerable to hurricanes
• Population is growing and seasonal
• Population is not experienced with hurricanes
• Forecasting technology has limitations
• Hurricanes are not just a coastal problem

Elected and emergency management officials must
make critical decisions to save lives and protect
property.
1-5
6
Course Goal

• Develop a Hurricane Readiness Checklist that
  covers tasks to be accomplished within your
  functional areas.
• The checklist should also address internal and
  external communication and coordination issues
  required for effective operation.

1-6
7
Course Objectives

• Explain the hazards associated with a hurricane
  for their local areas.
• Use NWS advisory products to determine the level
  of threat that an approaching storm poses.
• Describe technical information from Hurricane
  Evacuation Studies (HES), HURREVAC, and other
  sources that can be used when developing or
  evaluating an integrated and comprehensive
  Hurricane Readiness Checklist for local
  jurisdictions.

1-7
8
Course Objectives (continued)

• Describe the communication and coordination
  efforts needed within a jurisdiction, with other
  jurisdictions and agencies, and with the State
  throughout the hurricane action planning
  process.
• Develop a Hurricane Readiness Checklist as a
  guide for time-phased actions.
• Identify community/individual performance needs
  and the training needed to meet them.

1-8
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Course Agenda

• Unit 1 Introduction
• Unit 2 Hurricane Readiness
• Unit 3 Hurricanes and Hazards
• Unit 4 Pre-Season Readiness
• Unit 5 Hurricane Evacuation Studies
• Unit 6 Monitoring the Storm

1-9
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Course Agenda

• Unit 7 Evacuation Decision Considerations
• Unit 8 Re-entry
• Unit 9 Hurricane Readiness Checklist
• Unit 10 Conclusion

1-10
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Course Materials

• Participant Guide
• Hurricane ReadinessChecklist

1-11
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Unit 2 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Explain the acronyms, terms, and definitions
  relevant to this unit
• Describe the components of a Hurricane Readiness
  Checklist
• List the key emergency management positions,
  agencies, and organizations responsible for the
  development and implementation of the Emergency
  Operations Plan
• Identify the roles and responsibilities for each
  of the individuals and/or agencies and
• Identify the agencies involved in hurricane
  decision-making and protective actions.

2-1
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Unit 2 Hurricane Readiness

• Overview of Sequence of Actions
• Key Individuals and Agencies
• Activity 21Hurricane ReadinessCoastal
  Communities
• Lessons Learned

2-2
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Hurricane Readiness

• Comprehensive guide to direct hurricane
  preparedness and decision-making both pre- and
  post-storm
• Decision/Actions are effective if based on an
  understanding of tropical cyclones, their
  hazards, community vulnerabilities, NWS forecast
  products, and a good decision-making process
• Public and private involvement is essential

2-3
15
Hurricane Readiness Checklist

• The Hurricane Readiness Checklist should be
  community-specific
• The checklist should be time-sequenced
• Identify responsible agencies or officials for
  each task
• Evaluate priority of actions to be addressed

2-4
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Phases of the HRC

• Hurricane Readiness Checklists are structured
  around the following phases
• Pre-season and preparedness
• Monitoring
• Protective actions (evacuate or stay)
• Post-storm actions
• Re-entry

2-5
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Importance of the HRC

• Why is a Hurricane Readiness Checklist important?

2-6
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Importance of the HRC

• Prompts for timely action
• Supports decision/action-making accountability
• Structures documentation
• Ensures coordination and communication

2-7
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Key Individuals and Agencies
Who should be involved in the HRC development?
2-8
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Key Individuals and Agencies

• Elected officials
• Federal, State, and local government
  representatives
• Emergency management officials
• Military facilities
• Parks and recreation officials
• Hospitals, nursing homes, health care
• Private/public utility representatives
• Transportation representatives
• Public works officials

• School administrators
• News media
• Special needs groups
• Animal welfare organizations
• Hotel operators
• Business representatives
• Tourist industry representatives
• Industrial facility representatives
• Volunteer organizations
• American Red Cross
• Salvation Army

2-9
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Communication

• Problems occur when there is little communication
  between organizations and individuals
• The first step is to address effective
  communication in hurricane action planning

2-10
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QuestionsHurricane ReadinessCoastalCommunities

• What actions should be taken before, during, and
  after a tropical cyclone?
• Who should be contacted before, during, and after
  a tropical cyclone?
• What agencies might be used during a major
  hurricane threat and why?

2-27
23
Unit 3 Hurricanes and Hazards

• Hazards
• Potential Effects of a Tropical Storm or
  Hurricane
• Precautions for each Tropical Storm System Threat
  Level
• Activity 31Assessing Hurricanes and Hazards
• Lessons Learned

3-1
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Hurricanes and Hazards

• Average of 10 tropical storms each year 6 of
  these become hurricanes, of which 2 become major
  hurricanes.
• About 5 hurricanes strike the U.S. coastline in
  an average three-year period. These kill 50 to
  100 people and cost billions in damages.

3-2
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Major U.S. Hurricane Strikes 2004-2005, Winds
110 MPH

• Charley CAT 4
• Ivan CAT 3
• Jeanne CAT 3
• Dennis CAT 3
• Katrina CAT 4/3
• Rita CAT 3
• Wilma CAT 3

Two CAT 4 and Five CAT 3 to strike U.S. Mainland
26
Tropical Cyclone History since 1851
27
Hurricane Strikes since 1950
28
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29

• Return Period
• Provides the average frequency of a Hurricane
  passing within 75 nm (86 mi) of designated
  location over the past 100 years.

30

• Return Period
• Provides the average frequency of a Hurricane
  passing within 75 nm (86 mi) of designated
  location over the past 100 years.

31

• Return Period
• Provides the average frequency of a Hurricane
  passing within 75 nm (86 mi) of designated
  location over the past 100 years.

32

• Return Period
• Provides the average frequency of a Hurricane
  passing within 75 nm (86 mi) of designated
  location over the past 100 years.

33
Past Hurricane Seasons
34
Ophelia
2005! Post El Nino
Cindy
Tammy
Dont Forget TD 22
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2006 - El Nino Near Normal Season
Beryl
36
2007 - ENSO Neutral Heading into Weak La Nina
Barry
Noel
37
2008 Hurricane Season
Why?
38
Tropical Storm Classifications
3-3
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

• Category 5 Winds 155 mph (F3-F5)
• Category 4 Winds 131-155 mph (F2/F3)
• Category 3 Winds 111-130 mph (F2)
• Category 2 Winds 96-110 mph (F1)
• Category 1 Winds 74-95 mph (F1)
• Destructive potential of wind increases by the
  square of the wind speed!

3-4
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Tropical Storm and Hurricane Effects

• Storm surge
• Coastal and inland winds
• Tornadoes
• Flooding

3-5
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Storm Surge and Shore Slope
Shallow Shelf Incline
Steep Shelf Incline

• Abnormal rise in water level caused by wind and
  pressure forces of a hurricane
• Shallow shelf results in higher surges and
  lower waves
• Steep shelf results in lower surges and higher
  waves
• Can sweep 50 to 100 miles wide along a coastline

42
Storm Tide
Storm Tide Surge Tide Anomaly
1998 Hurricane GeorgesKey West, FL Surge 4 to 6
feet
43
Hurricane Dennis Storm Tide
Lost 6 ft deep of sand
Dog Island, Orlando Sentinel
Navarre Beach, NOAA
July 10, 2005
Navarre Beach, NOAA
44
(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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Katrina Hurricane Chasers
Storm Surge
UltimateChase.com
47
Katrina Hurricane Chasers
UltimateChase.com
48
Coastal and Inland Winds

• Wind damage may include
• Homes and businesses
• Trees along roadways
• Electric and telephone lines
• Signs and traffic control devices
• Water lines and underground utilities
• Radio and television towers

3-7
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Wind vs. Roofs with 2 Sides
1992 Hurricane Andrew Homestead, FL
50
Manufactured Homes Evacuate!
Hurricane Charley 2004 Punta Gorda, FL
51
Hurricanes High Rise Buildings
March 2000 Ft. Worth, TX F2 intensity (115-140
mph) tornado damage
What about a Category 3 (111-130 mph) hurricane
for a half hour?
52
Wind Speeds With Elevation
53
Hurricanes High Rise Buildings
Hurricane Andrew - 1992
Top floor of Burger King Headquarters
54
What is biggest difference along the U.S. coast
between 1940 and today?
55
Tornadoes

• Tornadoes with hurricanes
• Nearly 60 of hurricanes that made landfall (1948
  to 1986) spawned at least one tornado
• Although tornadoes associated with hurricanes are
  relatively weak and short-lived, they can cause
  serious damage

3-8
56
Where Do Most Tornadoes Occur?

• More than 90 of all Tropical Cyclone induced
  tornadoes occur in the right front quadrant of
  the storm relative to the storm motion
• Most develop more than 100 miles away from the
  center of the storm

57
Tornadoes in Cindy and Dennis (2005)
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Tornadoes in Wilma (2005)
59
2005 Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes
221 Total
60
Flooding

• Hurricanes typically can produce 6 to 12 inches
  of rainor more!
• Inland flooding has been the primary cause of
  tropical cyclone-related fatalities over the past
  30 years
• The risk from flooding depends on a number of
  factors
• Storm speed
• Storm interactions with other weather systems
• Terrain
• Ground saturation

3-9
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Hurricane Danger - Fresh Water Flooding
Lannis WatersThe Palm Beach Post
Jerry Padgett Jr. was killed when his car went
into the water covered hole in Lake Wales during
Charley (2004).
62
Activity 31 Assessing Hurricane Hazards
http//www.weather.gov/stormready.htm
3-10
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Activity 31 Assessing Hurricane Hazards

• What is the potential storm surge in your
  jurisdiction?
• What areas are prone to flooding if you receive 6
  to 12 inches of rain?
• What areas are most susceptible to high-wind
  damage?

3-10
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Unit 4 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Explain the acronyms, terms, and definitions
  relevant to this unit
• Identify three pre-season preparedness and
  coordination activities
• Discuss the different media that could be used to
  educate and inform the public and
• Use the National Hurricane Survival Initiative
  Poll to describe areas to target with your public
  education campaign.

4-1
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Unit 4 Pre-Season Readiness

• Evaluate plans
• Test/update tools and equipment
• NWS coordination
• Conduct training
• Public awareness
• Activity Pre-Season Actions for Public Education
  and Awareness
• Lessons Learned

4-2
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Effective Pre-Season Readiness
Decision-Making

• Effective decision-making greatly depends on
  pre-season preparedness and coordination.

4-3
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Pre-Season Readiness Decision-Making

• A well-informed public has a greater chance of
  survival from tropical cyclones
• A comprehensive public education and awareness
  program improves the response and survivability
  of the affected public
• Creativity is needed in developing a public
  education program and soliciting assistance from
  other governmental agencies and private
  organizations

4-4
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Evaluate Plans

• Review local hurricane plans and annexes with
  staff and Emergency Support Function agencies
• Assess jurisdictions capability and resources
• Conduct exercises/drills

4-5
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Test/Update Tools and Equipment

• Update decision assistance tools to current
  application HURREVAC, SLOSH, or others?
• Emergency Alert Systems
• NOAA Weather Radios
• Generators
• Highway message boards and signage
• Other equipment?

4-6
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Hurricane Awareness Study
The study showed that homeowners

• Perceive a low level of hurricane risk
• Think they are well prepared for hurricanes, but
  they are not
• For the most part, have taken no action to
  protect their homes from hurricanes
• Lack a thorough knowledge of hurricanes
• Think it is too expensive to take preventive
  actions, but lack awareness of how much
  preventive actions cost

4-7
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NWS Coordination

• Meet with Weather Forecast Office (WFO) staff
  before hurricane season starts
• Locate contact information for the National
  Hurricane Center, River Forecast Centers, other
  NWS resources
• Understand local WFO operations and advisory
  products
• Access advisory information Websites,
  conference calls, etc.
• Other resources to consider?

4-8
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Conduct Training

• Employees
• Elected officials
• Volunteers
• Mass care
• MRC
• CERT
• Others?

4-9
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Public Education and Awareness

• Use of Media for Communication
• Devise a strategy that will be effective in your
  jurisdiction. For example, you will need to
  consider
• Media effectiveness
• Language and literacy issues
• Computer literacy and access
• Special populations
• What other considerations would you include?

4-10
74
Published Materials
How published materials can be used for public
awareness and education

• Publish a special section in your local newspaper
  with emergency information on hurricanes
• Publish a preparedness booklet for public
  distribution
• Develop a CD-ROM learning program or
  instructional video targeting schoolchildren or
  other groups
• Create preparedness displays for area malls or
  public buildings
• Other ideas for using print materials?

4-11
75
Television, Radio, and the Internet
How TV, radio, and the Internet can be used for
public awareness and education

• Produce a television special for broadcast on a
  local cable channel
• Produce a public service announcement for
  broadcast on a local radio station
• Post an electronic brochure on the Internet, and
  create links from other Websites to this brochure
  
• Other ideas for using TV, radio, and the Internet?

4-12
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Public Forums
How public forums can be used for public
awareness and education

• Give a presentation at a school board or PTA
  meeting
• Set up a booth at a community safety fair or
  other public event
• Teach a workshop at a local conference or civic
  meeting
• Other ideas for using public forums?

4-13
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Partner Organizations
Partner organizations that might assist with
public awareness and education

• Law enforcement
• Schools and other educational institutions
• Volunteer agencies
• Civic organizations
• Other ideas for partner organizations in your
  community?

4-14
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Lessons Learned

• What regional/local media capability and public
  awareness material does your community have?
• How is this media capability used and when?
• How does pre-season awareness differ from
  operational public information?
• How effective are your mitigation procedures and
  processes?

4-16
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Unit 5 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Explain the acronyms, terms, and definitions
  relevant to this unit
• Describe the HES process
• Explain the role of the HES in local and regional
  hurricane planning
• Identify types of products including Surge Atlas,
  HURREVAC, Decision Arc, and Technical Data
  Reports
• Explain the post-storm hurricane assessment.

5-1
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Unit 5 Hurricane Evacuation Studies

• The Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES) Overview
• Components
• Products Surge Atlas, HURREVAC, Decision Arc,
  Technical Data Reports
• Post-Storm Hurricane Assessment
• Lessons Learned

5-2
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Hurricane Evacuation Studies

• Provide emergency management officials with
  information that will assist them in hurricane
  evacuation decision- making

5-3
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HES Overview
The Hurricane Evacuation Studies

• Are prepared by DHS/FEMA, the U.S. Army Corps of
  Engineers (USACE), NOAA NWS, and State emergency
  management agencies
• Provide products based on community risk,
  vulnerability, and various analyses
• Help determine evacuation requirements for
  tropical cyclones
• Provide products useful for other functions,
  including operations, plans and mitigation

5-4
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Who is Involved?
5-5
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HES Products
Three products of the HES

• Technical Data Report Includes an analysis of
  key factors affecting an evacuation
• Storm Tide (surge risk) Maps Illustrate
  inundation areas that must be evacuated for each
  hurricane category
• Decision Assistance Tools Study findings are
  incorporated into tools such as HURREVAC,
  intelligent traffic systems, databases, etc.

5-6
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Study Components

• Hazard Analysis
• Vulnerability Analysis
• Behavioral Analysis
• Shelter Analysis
• Transportation Analysis

5-7
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Hazard Analysis
5-8
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Storm Tide Maps/Risk Maps

• Map shows predicted storm surge inundation for
  each category (color-coded)
• Overlay of local features
• Can be applied for GIS use

5-9
88
Vulnerability Analysis
Identify areas that are vulnerable to flooding
(storm surge and riverine) as well as wind
5-10
89
Behavioral Analysis
Random telephone surveys
of the total of evacuating vehicles towing
boats, camper trailers, etc. Probable
destinations of the evacuating household Types
of refuge people go to family, friends,
hotels/motels or shelters
of the population that will evacuate When the
evacuating population will leave of vehicles
that the evacuating population will use
5-11
90
Evacuation Zones
State and local agencies are responsible for
development. The usual sequence for developing an
evacuation map
1. Surge model runs are utilized to show
inundation potentials. 2. Risk maps reflect
results of the model runs. 3. Evacuation
zones based on the risk maps, demographics, and
transportation network. 4. Clearance times
are derived from Evacuation Zones!
5-12
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Evacuation Zone Maps

• Color-coded, based on storm surge zones
• Evacuation zones conform to identifiable
  geographical features
• State and local officials disseminate to public

5-13
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Transportation Analysis

• Demographics
• Behavioral assumptions
• Evacuation routes
• Road capacities
• Traffic models
• (including reverse lane)
• Evacuation Zones
• Clearance Times

5-14
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HURREVAC uses the results of the HES to aid in
evacuation and protective action decision-making
5-15
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HURREVAC

• Software program that is a primary
  decision-making tool for emergency managers.
• Funded through the FEMA national hurricane
  program and is free to Government agencies.
• Website is www.hurrevac.com.

5-16
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Application of HURREVAC
HURREVAC for Windows
Latest version is 5.0.11
5-17
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Decision Arc Mapping Utility

• Decision arc mapping utility relates the general
  time required to evacuate risk areas according to
  the storm threat
• A user must have the correct Clearance Times to
  use this feature

5-22
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Post-Storm Hurricane Assessment

• FEMA and theUSACE may conduct a Post-Storm
  Assessment (PSA) to evaluate HES products
• PSA does not evaluate a disaster plan or the
  performance of responders

5-23
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PSA Process
Some of the items covered include

• High water marks collection and storm surge model
  evaluation
• Behavioral survey and analysis to determine
  public response
• Transportation analysis to verify Clearance Times
  and other related actions
• Effectiveness of HURREVAC as a decision tool
• Effectiveness of public information products

5-24
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Other Post-Disaster Reports
MAT Mitigation Assessment Team (formerly BAT or
Building Assessment Team)
RAMP Remedial Action Management Program
(Response Recovery)
5-26
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Lessons Learned

• How can the HES and products help in preparing
  for a tropical cyclone?
• How do you use the products in your pre-season
  planning procedures and processes?
• Who can update your HES?

5-28
101
Unit 6 Monitoring the Hurricane
6-1
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Unit 6 Monitoring the Hurricane

• Roles of Hurricane Forecasting Organizations
• Advisory Products for Monitoring Hurricanes
• Hurricane Forecasting
• Activity 61Preparedness and Evacuation Planning
  
• Lessons Learned

6-1
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Monitoring the Storm

• Local leaders must have current and accurate
  information regarding tropical cyclones (i.e.,
  tropical depressions, tropical storms, and
  hurricanes)
• Improved forecasts have contributed to a
  significant reduction in the number of deaths
  attributed to tropical cyclones

6-2
104
Hurricane Forecasting Organizations

• Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane
  Center (TPC/NHC)
• Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
• River Forecast Centers
• Local Weather Forecast Office (WFO)

6-3
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Hurricane Liaison Team
The mission is to support hurricane response
operations through the rapid exchange of critical
information between the National Hurricane Center
and emergency management agencies.
National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
6-4
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Hurricane Liaison Team Members

• NWS meteorologist
• NWS hydrologist
• FEMAs Hurricane Program Specialist from the
  threatened region
• Disaster Assistance Employees and State Emergency
  Management Agencies

6-5
107
Advisory Products for Monitoring Hurricanes
TPC/NHC produces four types of advisory products
Tropical cyclone public advisory Tropical cyclone
forecast advisory Tropical cyclone discussion
Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities
1.
2.
3.
4.
All four advisory products are issued every six
hours for all tropical cyclones.
6-6
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Hurricane Dangers
109
Tropical Storm Public Advisory Format
Primarily intended for the general public, this
advisory follows a standard format to provide the
following information

• Lead statement that highlights significant
  aspects of the storm
• Watches and Warnings issued
• Center location and motion forecast
• Wind speed and intensity
• Expected storm surge
• Actions to be taken
• Associated meteorological events

6-7
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Tropical Storm Public Advisory
A Special Public Tropical Storm Advisory is
issued when

• Storm conditions require issuance between
  regularly scheduled public advisories
• A significant change has occurred, requiring the
  issuance of a revised forecast package
• Conditions require change or cancellation of an
  existing warning
• A tornado threat develops or the hurricane
  forecaster believes other significant changes
  have occurred

Content is similar to that of a scheduled
advisory, but its format may be less formal and
less complete.
6-8
111
Intermediate Tropical Storm Public Advisory
An Intermediate Tropical Storm Public Advisory is
issued when

• There are tropical cyclone watches or warnings in
  effect
• Coastal watches or warnings can be discontinued
  however, they can NOT be issued in this product.

Content is similar to that of the regularly
scheduled public advisory.
6-9
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Regular vs. Intermediate Advisories
11 AM, Regular Advisory
1 PM, Intermediate Advisory
Updates storm position, not forecasted movement
113
Intermediate vs. Special Advisories
1 PM, Intermediate Advisory
2 PM, Special Advisory
Updates storm position, not forecasted movement
Updates storm position AND forecasted movement
114
Tropical Storm Forecast/Advisory

• Formerly called marine advisory, it is important
  to the marine community and to emergency managers
  because it contains wind field information
• Data from this advisory is used to create
  HURREVAC graphics
• Follows a standard format to provide 12-, 24-,
  36-, 48-, 72-, 96-, and 120-hour forecast
  positions
• Where appropriate, the tropical storm
  forecast/advisory will also include information,
  such as
• Watches/warnings
• Present location, accuracy, and movement
• Other

6-10
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Tropical Storm Discussions
Intended for other forecasters, these discussions
explain the rationale for the current forecast
level of confidence. They generally include

• Prognostic reasoning
• The objective techniques employed
• NOAA NWS model guidance used
• Coordinated 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 72-, 96-, and
  120-hour tropical cyclone forecast points
• Maximum wind speed forecasts for each forecast
  point
• Other meteorological decisions
• Plans for watches and/or warnings

6-11
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Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities

• Presents the percentage chance of wind speeds
  reaching or exceeding particular thresholds,
  including inland locations
• Probabilities are based on the official forecast
  track and extend through 5 days
• These probabilities account for the average
  combined forecast errors in track, intensity and
  size over the past 5 years

117
Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities

• Answers to three main questions
• What are the chances of this happening to me?
• Do I need to prepare?
• Cumulative probabilities
• When is the event most likely to start at my
  location?
• How much time do I have to prepare?
• Individual period probabilities
• What are the chances this event will be happening
  to me on a particular day (or part of a day)?
• How long will the storm last?
• Will the weather be bad on Saturday?
• Incremental probabilities

6-12
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Wind Speed Probabilities
119
Wind Speed Probabilities
Conveys the combined uncertainty in track,
intensity, and storm size at each point and time
on the map
120
Wind Speed Probabilities
121
64 kt Cumulative
0-120 h
18 UTC Thu 12 Aug
Note that chances of hurricane conditions at
Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30!
Hurricane Charley (2004)
122
Example Interpretation of Output
What is the chance that tropical storm force
winds (34 kt or greater) will occur at Charlotte
NC during the next five days?
34 kt probabilities at Charlotte NC
123
Example Interpretation of Output
What is the chance that tropical storm force
winds (34 kt or greater) will occur at Charlotte
NC during the next five days? 42
34 kt probabilities at Charlotte NC
124
Example Interpretation of Output
What is the chance that tropical storm force
winds (34 kt or greater) will occur at Charlotte
NC during the next five days? 42 When are these
winds most likely to start?
34 kt probabilities at Charlotte NC
125
Example Interpretation of Output
What is the chance that tropical storm force
winds (34 kt or greater) will occur at Charlotte
NC during the next five days? 42 When are these
winds most likely to start? From 18Z Sun to 18Z
Mon (18 chance)
34 kt probabilities at Charlotte NC
126
Example Interpretation of Output
What is the chance that tropical storm force
winds (34 kt or greater) will occur at Charlotte
NC during the next five days? 42 When are these
winds most likely to start? From 18Z Sun to 18Z
Mon (18 chance) What is the chance that tropical
storm force winds (34 kt or greater) will occur
at Charlotte NC during the next three days?
34 kt probabilities at Charlotte NC
127
Example Interpretation of Output
What is the chance that tropical storm force
winds (34 kt or greater) will occur at Charlotte
NC during the next five days? 42 When are these
winds most likely to start? From 18Z Sun to 18Z
Mon (18 chance) What is the chance that tropical
storm force winds (34 kt or greater) will occur
at Charlotte NC during the next three days? 21
34 kt probabilities at Charlotte NC
128
Experimental Products

• Issued 4 times daily
• 2 AM
• 8 AM
• 2 PM
• 8 PM
• www.nhc.noaa.gov

129
WFO Hurricane Local Statements
Local WFOs analyze TPC/NHC products and issue
Hurricane Local Statements (HLS), which contain

• Lead statement
• Counties, parishes, or cities included in the HLS
• Watches and/or warnings in effect
• Recommended precautionary actions
• Storm surge and storm tide information
• Present winds and the expected time of onset of
  tropical storm or hurricane-force winds
• Tornado, flood, flash flood, rip current, beach
  erosion, and inland high wind potential
• The time of the next statement

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Inland Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and
Warnings

• Issued when a tropical system is expected to
  remain at tropical storm/hurricane strength well
  inland
• Calls greater attention to the threat
• Issued when tropical storm/hurricane-force winds
  are anticipated beyond coastal areaseven though
  the actual occurrence, time, and location may be
  uncertain
• Wind fields from the tropical storm
  forecast/advisory will be used as guidance when
  preparing the watch

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Tracking Tropical Storm/Hurricane-Force Winds
6-15
132
Where to get the latest info
http//weather.gov/boston
http//www.nhc.noaa.gov
133
http//weather.gov
134
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System

• Forecasts for coastal points with gages include
  modeled storm surge

http//weather.gov/boston
http//weather.gov/boston
135
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System

• All forecast points include additional
  information, such as expected impacts

http//weather.gov/boston
http//weather.gov/boston
136
Hurricane Forecasting

• The TPC/NHC relies on hurricane computer modeling
  and observational instrumentation for hurricane
  forecasting
• Over the past 20 years, forecast accuracy has
  increased
• Despite advances in data collection systems, the
  accuracy of forecasts is still limited

6-16
137
Katrina 5 Day Forecast Model Plots
08/24/2005 100 pm CDT.
138
Three Main Sources of Errors

• Methods of observation
• Satellite
• Reconnaissance
• Radar
• Inaccuracies in the observations or insufficient
  numbers of observations
• Incomplete understanding of the physics of the
  hurricane and the atmosphere in which it is
  embedded

6-18
139
Inaccuracies in Observations

• Having enough observations to supply data for
  the computer models is a problem, especially
  over the ocean
• Observational tools take measurements in
  different ways, and all of them have different
  accuracies
• The forecaster must determine, out of all these
  measurements and computer runs, which ones best
  represent the storm
• Forecasters must also be concerned about rapid
  changes that take place between model runs

6-19
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Sources of Errors in Forecasting

• The NHC average forecast track error at 72 hours
  is roughly 150 nautical miles.

• A perfect forecast is knowing the location and
  intensity with 100 percent accuracy.

This gap is the reality that underlies
decision-making.
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Probabilities and Margins of Error

• Plan for a hurricane one category higher than is
  currently forecast
• Multiply sustained wind by 1.5 for crude estimate
  of wind gust potential
• Prepare in advance to take action in case the
  track shifts suddenly or the storms speed
  increases
• Speed up storm by 6 hours

6-20
142
Errors in Forecasting Hurricane Track
6-21
143
(No Transcript)
144
Why is Forecasting Hard?
145
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
Fly into hurricane to get information that make
forecasts better.
146
Track Errors and Evacuation Decisions

• You must make the decision to evacuate knowing
  about track errors about 60 n mi at 24 hours
• (2-yr running average 2004-2005)
• Hurricane conditions typically affect a swath of
  about 125 statute miles wide. Watches and
  warnings are usually issued or 300 miles of
  coastline
• Costs of evacuations and loss of life are weighed
  against errors in forecasting to decide on a
  course of action

6-22
147
Errors in Forecasting Hurricane Intensity
Errors in Forecasting Hurricane Intensity
Official Wind Forecast Error(1990-1998)
6-23
148
HURREVAC as a Forecasting Tool
HURREVAC uses the TPC/NHC advisory package to
graphically show the

• Hurricanes track
• Forecast track errors
• Strike probabilities
• Wind fields

When combined with HS information, HURREVAC
provides data for making an evacuation decision.
6-25
149
NHC Wind Forecasts
Wind is notreduced over land
Over land, use speed as potential for gusts
150
Lessons Learned

• When monitoring the storm what are the most
  critical factors?
• How can we correct/improve the inaccuracies in
  tropical storm observations?
• What tools/products have been most useful and
  accurate in forecasting tropical storms?

6-27
151
Unit 7 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Explain the acronyms, terms, and definitions
  relevant to this unit
• Explain the importance of documenting all
  decision-making actions to ensure confidence in
  the decision to issue, or not to issue,
  evacuation warning orders
• Identify within your community who has
  decision-making authority and whether or not this
  authority is supported by local ordinance
• Identify citizens who should evacuate or shelter
  in-place, based on vulnerability and potential
  storm impact/hazards
• Describe evacuation-clearance-time impact
  factors and
• Explain effective communication techniques and
  capabilities to ensure that citizens receive the
  warning orders.

7-1
152
Unit 7 Evacuation Decision Considerations

• Decision-Making Authority Issues
• Hurricane Evacuation Study
• Evacuation Clearance Times
• Hurricane Action Template
• Communications
• Examples of Decision-Making Process
• Evacuation Liaison Team (ELT)
• Other Protective Measures
• Lessons Learned

7-2
153
Evacuation Decision Considerations

• Protective Action Decisions within a jurisdiction
  are most often made by an elected official

7-3
154
Decision-Making Process

• Define ultimate authority
• Consensus from other elected officials
• Verification by local ordinance or state code

7-4
155
Hurricane Evacuation Study

• The HES impacts the evacuation decision making
  process by providing data and statistics to make
  sound local plans.

7-6
156
HES Planning Process

• Evacuation Process
• SLOSH
• MEOW
• Geographic Boundaries

7-7
157
Forecast Factors

• Plan for one hurricane category higher than
  forecast
• Current forecast
• Error cone
• Projected storm track
• Storm intensity
• Storm direction

7-8
158
Rule of Thumb

• Run from the water (storm surge/flooding)
• Hide from the wind
• Evacuation should focus on the flood-prone areas

7-9
159
Vulnerable Facilities

• Mobile Homes
• Substandard Construction
• Manufactured Housing
• Special Needs Populations
• Isolated Areas
• Tourist Areas
• Special Events
• High-rises
• Historic Communities

7-10
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Who Is Most Vulnerable?

• What are some examples in your community of
  vulnerable populations?

7-11
161
Who Needs to Leave or Stay?

• Basic Questions
• Do they live in a storm surge area?
• What structures will withstand the winds?
• What areas are most susceptible to inland
  flooding?
• Community isolation
• Who should leave first?

7-12
162
Risk Profile

• Hurricane Risk Profiling is designed to ensure
  that decision-makers are asking the right
  questions about the approaching storm to assist
  them with making an effective/efficient
  evacuation call

7-14
163
Storm Intensity Factors

• What is the current intensity of the storm?
• How is the storm intensity forecast predicted to
  change before landfall?
• How has the storm intensified over the last three
  advisories?
• What is the storms peak intensity forecast
  predicted to be within 5 mph of the next
  Saffir-Simpson category level?

7-17
164
Local Government Demographic and Storm
Location Factors

• How many hours until the tropical storm force
  winds hit?
• What is the forward speed of the storm, and has
  it slowed or increased?
• What is the potential storm surge level?
• What is the local governments clearance time
  (one-way options)?
• What is the tourist population?

7-18
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Evacuation Timing Considerations

• Time of day
• Weather
• Traffic control
• Signage
• Traffic signals or manual decision
• Multiple storm fatigue
• Office and school closings
• Shelter availability
• Rail crossing on shelter routes

7-19
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Regional Considerations

• Evacuation decisions by one jurisdiction can and
  do affect others
• Inter-county and inter-state coordination is
  necessary
• Inland officials must be given adequate notice to
  absorb the impact of other jurisdictions
  decisions
• State agencies will provide leadership

7-20
167
Regional Communications

• How effectively can you communicate with other
  EOCs, including MEMA?
• How do public safety officials communicate?
• How effective are your communications with
  shelters?

7-21
168
Shelter Considerations

• Facility vulnerability
• Family and friends
• Motels and hotels
• Public shelters (American Red Cross and others)
• Facility capabilities and POCs
• Train staff
• Refuge of Last Resort
• Liability
• Sheltering of pets and animals
• Special Populations

7-22
169
Activity 71Guided DiscussionCurrent
Issues

• Current issues facing your jurisdictions in
  hurricane readiness planning and preparation

7-23
170
Lessons Learned

• How many of the evacuees seek public shelters in
  your area?
• What measures are taken to ensure that those who
  stay behind understand the risks?
• How effective are the inter- and intra-county
  shelter communications?

7-24
171
Unit 8 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Explain the acronyms, terms, and definitions
  relevant to this unit
• Establish re-entry priorities
• Discuss the re-entry considerations and their
  importance
• List hurricane re-entry planning assumptions.

8-1
172
Unit 8 Re-Entry

• Re-entry priority
• Safety issues
• Security issues
• Traffic
• Zones
• Public information
• Activity 81Best Practices
• Lessons Learned

8-2
173
Re-Entry Guidelines

• Now that citizens have evacuated, what is your
  re-entry plan/Annex?
• Determine that an area is safe and free from
  further harm or damage before people return to
  their homes and businesses
• It is important to coordinate with other
  communities and private sources

8-3
174
Evacuation vs. Re-Entry

• Decisions by elected officials
• Public information about routes
• Zones
• Phases
• Signage
• Traffic management/control
• Same ESFs
• Other?

8-4
175
Re-Entry Priority
Essential vs. Non-Essential

• Re-entry priority Who returns first?
• Law enforcement
• Search and Rescue
• Private sector
• Volunteers
• The 72-Hour Rule

8-5
176
Safety Considerations

• Search and rescue ofcasualties
• Hazardous Materials
• Water and waste
• Roads and bridges
• Utilities

8-6
177
Security Considerations

• Protection of lives
• Critical facilities
• Public
• Private
• Other
• Private property
• ID badges andpasses

8-7
178
Traffic

• Traffic signals
• Conditions of signage
• Variable messageboards
• Road blockades
• Personnel to directtraffic
• Alternate routes fordetours
• Other jurisdictions

8-8
179
Zones
Red Zone No utilities or public service,
extreme devastation Yellow Zone Moderate to
heavy damage, debris on roads Green Zone
Normal traffic and activities
8-9
180
Public Information

• Coordinate information with otherjurisdictions
  and MEMA (joint pressreleases and press
  conferences)
• Provide updated information on extentof damage
  and road conditions
• Announce re-entry plans with routes
• Manage limited access for news mediato promote
  the message

8-10
181
Public Information

• Emergency Alert Radio (EAS)
• Public Radio statewide
• Governors Announcement

8-11
182
Lessons Learned

• How did you involve personnel from other agencies
  in the disaster response?
• How well do you plan for coordination among
  Federal, state, and local agencies?
• Which private vendors might you contact for
  additional support and services?
• How well did your plans go for communicating with
  the public, for the purposes of re-entry?

8-16
183
Unit 9 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Explain the acronyms, terms, and definitions
  relevant to this unit
• Describe the usefulness of a detailed checklist
  in guiding activities and coordination
• Identify operational periods for your checklist
  and
• Analyze operational periods for tasks and
  coordination to determine their applicability to
  your agency.

9-1
184
Unit 9 Hurricane Readiness Checklist

• Hurricane Readiness Checklist Overview
• Pre-Season Action Considerations
• 120, 72, 4836, and 24 hours before landfall
• Impact
• Post-Landfall
• Activity 91Hurricane Readiness Checklist
• Lessons Learned

9-2
185
Hurricane Readiness Checklist

• Designed to facilitate coordination between local
  decision-making officials and prompt them to
  initiate hurricane protective actions.

9-3
186
Pre-Season Action Considerations

• Revise and update local plans and SOPs
• Train staff, conduct exercises
• Tabletops
• Full-Scale or Functionals
• Conduct pre-season coordination meetings
• Department Heads
• Shelter managers
• Local and Regional Media
• Are there any other items to be considered?

9-5
187
120 Hours Before Landfall of Tropical
Storm-Force Winds

• Alert Selectmen or City Council Representatives
• Contact MEMA Regional Office
• Alert Special Needs Entities

9-6
188
72 Hours Before Landfall of Tropical Storm-Force
Winds

• Storm-monitoring actions
• Conference calls with NWS/NHC/STATE
• Update HURREVAC based on forecasts issued
• Notify response plan agencies and conduct
  preliminary briefings
• Partially activate EOC, activate phone lines,
  personnel, stage equipment, etc.
• Conduct preliminary evacuation meeting
  (clearance- time-based)
• Initial protective actions to be taken by
  Emergency Management

9-7
189
4836 Hours Before Landfall of Tropical
Storm-Force Winds

• State conference calls
• Activate EOC fully
• Public awareness considerations
• Issue situation reports/press releases
• Shelter meetings
• Additional evacuation/Traffic Control
  Coordination Meetings
• Voluntary/mandatory/recommended evacuations
• How does a hurricane watch impact decisions?
• Identify vulnerable populations

9-8
190
24 Hours Before Landfall of Tropical Storm-Force
Winds

• Evacuation coordination/Decision meetings
• Monitor shelters
• Consider refuge of last resort
• Respond to various public awareness, information,
  and security issues

9-9
191
Impact

• Keep your head down

9-10
192
Post-Landfall

• Impact assessment
• Search and rescue
• State/neighboring coordination
• Public awareness issues and re-entry issues

9-11
193
Lessons Learned

• What additional issues need to be addressed when
  planning for the impact of a tropical cyclone or
  hurricane?
• What other measures could be implemented when
  informing the public regarding the re-entry
  process?

9-13
194
Unit 10 Objectives
At the conclusion of this unit, participants
should be able to

• Identify any communications and coordination gaps
  in their jurisdictional plans
• Identify areas in the plan that require
  clarification
• List at least five takeaways from the course
• Identify resources and training opportunities
  and
• Evaluate the course.

10-1
195
Unit 10 Conclusion

• Jurisdictional Plans
• Takeaways
• Resources
• Training Opportunities
• Course Review and Evaluation

10-2
196
Jurisdictional Plans

• How current are your plans?
• When was the last time you conducted an
  exercise/drills and/or tabletop exercise?

10-3
197
Takeaways

• What are the important takeaways you have learned
  from this training?
• How will you implement those in your jurisdiction?

10-4
198
Resources for Hurricane Planning

• The Internet
• Mitigation (MEMA)
• Mitigation Technical Assistance Programs
• Hazard Mitigation Grant Program
• Wind and Water Technical Assistance Program

10-5
199
Training Opportunities

• MEMA
• FEMA, Emergency Management Institute (EMI)
• Independent study courses
• Resident courses at EMI
• Emergency Education Network (EENET)
• Other
• Conferences
• Higher education institutions
• Web-based courses

10-6
200
Conclusion
Hurricane planning is an ongoing effort. It
requires continuous evaluation and planning to
ensure that the community is always prepared,
should a hurricane strike.
10-8
201
Contact Information
Graham Campbell MEMA Training Manager 508-820-1405
Graham.Campbell_at_state.ma.us Matthew
Belk Hurricane Team Leader, NWS 508-823-1900 Matth
ew.Belk_at_noaa.gov