Forum on National Situation and the Challenges for Citizens Organizations

1
Forum on National Situation and the Challenges
for Citizens Organizations

• Manuel L. Quezon III
• November 28, 2006

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The National Situation Bankrupt of political
ideas
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1986-2006Two Decades of Disillusionment
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Opinion

• What the surveys tell us
• What they dont tell us
• What experience taught us
• What theyve learned

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Stratagems

• Government divide-and-conquer maintain
  incumbents advantage
• Traditional Opposition maintain the mass base
• Reformist Opposition gain credibility and define
  a message

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Breaking down Constituencies

• By looking at the surveys over time, the
  hard-core vs. soft constituencies can be
  identified.

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Broad Constituencies

• Estrada and Arroyo claim a base of support
  roughly equal to each other, based on official
  presidential results for 1998 and 2004.

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National Economic Recovery

• Pulse Asia Oct. 28 to Nov. 8
• 48 critical of GMA.
• The survey showed 40-53 disapprove of
  administration performance on six national
  issues Criminality, political killings, workers
  pay, poverty, graft and corruption, and
  inflation.

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Presidents 1/4
The core constituency of the President is 1 in 4
voters, or 25 percent. They will stand by her
side to the bitter end.
5 options in survey 17 Snap 12 Noli 11
Civilian Junta 11 Drilon Snap 8 Noli Trans.
2 options in survey 24 until 2010 11 until
Cha-Cha
(PA10/05 Beneficial Scenario)
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Generally Opposed

• They are outnumbered 2 to 1 by critics of the
  President who can be expected to disagree and
  oppose her on every issue, but that doesn't mean
  her critics can agree on anything among
  themselves.

(PA11/06 Presidents performance)
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The Undecided 1/4
Another 25 percent of voters are unconcerned,
uninvolved, have no opinion, or remain undecided.
This percentage has expressed itself as undecided
on every major question, with a remarkable
cohesion.
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Its a Tie to Palaces Advantage
What the opposition groups overlook is that the
undecided represent people who belong to the
administration, by default.
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Competing Agendas

• Its the economy, stupid!
• vs.
• Pekeng Pangulo!
• vs.
• To Hell with you all!

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Wanted A Relevant Dream

• Where leaders actually lead by example and give
  up something
• Where the national finally enhances the local
• Where solutions cause fewer problems than they
  try to solve

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Missions

• Define a relevant message
• Focus on the possible
• Guard the piggy banks
• Uphold the electoral process
• Maintain an adherence to the democratic system