Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu 09 Assessment Analysis FSEDC
Meeting August 21, 2009 Nairobi, Kenya
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
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FSNAU Post Gu 09 AssessmentOverall Timeline
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FSNAU Gu 09 AssessmentPartner Participation
Number of People Participating by Agency Food
Security Field Assessment - Total 88
Total Number of Participating Partner Agencies
(FS Nut) 102 Local NGOs 47 Intl
NGOs 20 Local Authority 12 Ministries 15 UN 5 I
ntl 3
Total Number of People Field (FS) Workshop
Total 111 Local Authority 10 Ministries
13 Local NGOs 42 International NGOs 12 UN
Agencies 35
Analysis Workshop - Total 23 FEWSNET 3 JRC-MARS 2
WFP 14 OCHA 2 CEFA 1 DEG GARAS 1
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Gu 08/09 Assessment Access and Field Monitoring
Locations
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• Sector Analysis
• Summary Results

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Climate Performance of the Gu 09 Rains

• Gu 09 Seasonal Rains
• Start on time (late March/ early April)
• Ended early - in mid May in many parts of the
  country
• Overall Performance - mixed, but largely below
  normal, especially in key pastoral regions of the
  north and central
• Areas of Poor Rainfall
• Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug, Sool, Nugal, Togdheer,
  Sanaag and parts of Galbeed
• Parts of Lower Juba, North Gedo, and northern
  parts of Bakool
• Areas of Near Normal Rainfall
• Bay, Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle
• Parts of Bakool, and south Gedo
• Hagaa Seasonal Rains
• Good hagaa rains in Juba, and Shabelle and parts
  of Bay regions
• Juba and Shabelle planted off season crop (maize
  and sesame).
• Shabelle Juba River Levels - below normal
  rainfall in Ethiopian highlands
• Rain failure in northern Kenya leading to
  abnormal livestock in-migration into Juba

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Climate
Crop/vegetation condition has been good in Bay,
Juba and Shabelle
NVDI AVHRR Anomaly June, 2009
Climate Gu 09 Vegetation Condition
Source FSAU /FEWSNET
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Climate
Emerging Drought in Northern Pastoral Areas
Nugaal Valley, Vegetation conditions (NDVI) July
1981- June 2009

• Three consecutive seasons of below-normal
  rainfall emerging drought
• Pasture and grazing conditions deteriorated to an
  alarming degree,
• NDVI 36-month average deviation normal lower
  than 1990/92 2001/03 droughts

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Climate
Deepening Drought in Central Pastoral Areas
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Civil Insecurity

• Civil Insecurity Trends (Jan. July 09)
• Precarious and mixed situation (Jan. April)
• Slight improvement in some areas, but further
  deterioration in other areas
• Deterioration Since May 09
• Worsened in several areas of southern and central
  Somalia including Mogadishu, Belet Weyne, Elbur
  and Hara-dhere
• With significant impact on both urban and rural
• Fresh fighting exploded in Mogadishu between
  insurgents and the Transitional Federal
  Government (TFG),
• Worst fighting seen in months, causing both
  civilian deaths and massive displacement within
  the country and towards refugee camps of Kenya
• Main impact is in the main towns and on
  humanitarian operations

Source FSNAU Protection Cluster
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• Ongoing Likely to Increase
• Direct Impacts
• Deaths, Injuries, human rights abuses
• Destruction of Assets (Public Private)
• Increased Population Displacement 1.4 million
  IDPs (40 increase since Jan. 09)
• Direct targeting of humanitarian and reduction of
  aid workers and responses
• Indirect Impact
• Disruptions of trade within the country and
  across regional borders (for example
  Ethiopia-Somalia) and likely price increase
• Restrictions of livestock migration between
  clans boundaries in Central/ Hiran/parts of M.
  Shabelle and difficult of the natural resource
  sharing (water, pasture and grazing)
• Further restrictions of humanitarian space
• Declining social support among livelihoods and
  wealth groups

Civil Insecurity

• Deterioration Since May 09
• Resource-based conflict between clans and
  sub-clans, especially in drought areas (e.g.
  Central)
• Improved Access and security situation of the
  ordinary people improved in some areas
  (e.g. L. Shabelle)
• Continued Incidents of sea piracy have since
  January, despite multinational naval forces and
  efforts of the local people

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Civil Insecurity Most Likely Scenario (July- Dec.
09)

• Increased Likelihood of further Confrontation
  between different religious forces and TFG and
  different clans
• Increased localized civil insecurity and clan
  tensions
• Increased resource based conflicts, banditry
  and marine piracy
• Kenyan border closure affecting IDP population
  movement and cross border trade mainly cattle and
  other commodities
• Main Areas of Risk Mogadishu, Bay, Bakool,
  Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud,
  Mudug including Galkacyo, Gedo and Juba regions
  
• Main Impact Mainly urban areas and trade
  movements in conflict areas, more limited direct
  impact on rural populations.

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Livestock
Somalia Rangeland Conditions and Livestock
Migration July 09
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Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and
Milk Production
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Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and
Milk Production
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Livestock Water Availability
Water trucked in Hawd Hargeisa
Early depletion of waterSIP Afmadow
Empty Communal Dam in Hawd AbudwaK
Dasa empty water catchment Elwaq - Gedo
Empty Berkads Sool Plateau - Qardho
Empty Teed communal water catchment- North
Huddur
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Livestock Pastoral Migration Using Different
Means of Transport
Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Gedo
Motorized out migration from Nugal Valley
In migration from Gedo Using Pack camels
Middle Shebelle migrating from to L/Shebelle
Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Ox
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Livestock Livestock Body Conditions Pasture
Camel Cattle
Average cattle body condition in Juba
Poor pasture camel body condition in Nugal
Valley
Emaciated camel body condition in Dh/mareeb
Dead sheep Agropastoral W/Galbeed
Good camel calving at Qorioley/L. Shebelle
Poor camel body conditionB/Jajdid/Tayeglow
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Livestock
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Livestock
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality
Cattle (SoSh/SLSh)
Trends in Local Cattle Prices
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality
Goat (SoSh/SLSh)
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality
Goat (SoSh/SLSh)
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Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of
Trade
Livestock
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Livestock
Trends in Livestock Exports Berbera Bossaso
Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 year
Average
Berbera Bossaso Trend in Livestock Exports
(Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US)
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LivestockCarcass Meat Exported Jan Jul. 2009
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Agriculture Gu 09 Cereal Production in Southern
Somalia
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Gu07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern
Somalia
Agriculture
Rice and Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Southern
Somalia
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Agriculture
Cereal Production Plus Off-Season in Southern
Somalia
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AgricultureTrends in Cereal Production (no off
season) , Southern Somalia
Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 2009)
Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 2009)
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Agriculture Regional Cereal Contributions
Maize Production Gu09 Regional Contribution
Regional Contribution Gu 09 Cereal Production

Sorghum Production Gu09 Regional Contribution
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Agriculture Gu Karan Crop Establishment Estimates
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AgricultureTrends in Gu-Karan Cereal Production,
Somaliland
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1. Poor Sorghum Establishment. Garabis,
Hargeysa, W. Galbeed, July 092. Sorghum Crop
Failure with limited fodder harvested by the
Owner. Bulo Burte, Hiran, July 09. 3. Poor
Riverine Maize Crop due to water stress. Moyka
village, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July 09
Agriculture Gu 09 Poor Crops
1
2
3
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Agriculture Gu 09 Off-Season Good Crops
1. Good Sorghum Crop. Finka Weer, Sakow,M. Juba,
July,09 2. Good Rainfed Maize Crop. K50, Marka,
L. Shabelle, July 2009 3. Good Sorghum Crop.
Boodaale, Burhakaba, Bay, July 09.
1
2
3
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Agriculture
Cash Crop Production Estimates in Southern Somalia
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Agriculture Gu 09 Cash Crops and Other income
Activities




Vegetable production_Middle shabelle
Fodder Collection, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July 09.




Good Banana and Cucumber Crops. Jilib, Middle
Juba, July 09.
Good Lettuce and Rice Crop behind. Jowhar, Middle
Shabelle, July 09.
Good Rain-fed Sesame Crop. Sakow, Middle Juba,
July 09
Fodder Market. Jowhar. Miiddle Shabelle, July 09
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Agriculture
Cereal Flow Map
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Agriculture Commercial Cereal Import Trends
(2005-2008)

• MT 2009 (Jan. July)
• 417,534 MT
• 118 of year 2008 (352,385MT)
• 99 of 3-year average (423,085MT)

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AgricultureAnnual Cereal Balance Sheet June
2009 to May 2010
Local Cereal Production and Food Aid Availability
in Southern Regions
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Agriculture

• Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Terms of Trade

• Regional Trend in
• Cereal Prices
• (SoSh/SLSH)

Regional Trend in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (kg of cereal/daily wage)
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Trends in Exchange Rates
Markets

• Factors Affecting
• Depreciation Since Jan. 07 to Sept 08
• Excessive printing of SoSh
• High demand of USD
• Low remittance
• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling
• Speculation and expectations
• Appreciation Since Oct. 08
• Significant increase in USD
• Piracy
• Proceeds from livestock sales
• Cessation SOSH printing
• Slowdown of business activities and exports

Monthly Exchange Rates - SoSh and SlSh to USD
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Markets
Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange
Rates
Shabelle Region Trend in Imported Commodity
Prices compared to Exchange Rate

• Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices
• Devaluation of SoSh (Imports expensive)
• Increased Global Prices
• High Importation Costs (Piracy/Fuel/Taxes)
• High Transportation Costs
• Low Supply
• Disrupted Market Activities
• Reduced Trade Flows
• Low Substitute Commodity
• Trade Collusion
• Tariffs and Taxations

Central Imported Commodity Prices compared to
Exchange Rate
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Markets Consumer Price Index (Min. Expenditure
Basket)
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Markets Trends in Cereal Prices, Wage Rates and
TOT (SoSh)
Northeast
South
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Comparison of Rice Price in Mogadishu and
International Asia Markets January 2007 July
2009
Markets
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Impact of Gu 09 Performance on Gender

• During normal seasons most pastoral activities
  (e.g. looking after animals, fetching water and
  firewood, sale of livestock products and food
  purchase) are done by women, while these are
  managed by men during dry seasons
• Huge livestock migration (including lactating
  animals) in search of pasture and water resulted
  in family splitting with women and children
  remaining behind

• Jidbaale, July09

• Qandhicilay, July09

• Jidbaale, July09

• Abandoned women and children in the drought
  affected settlements, Hawd of Sool, July 09

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Continued

• Main effects on women
• Lack of milk production/consumption, affecting
  the nutritional status of women and children as
  evidenced by nutritional surveys ( critical to
  very critical situation in Gedo, Central/Hiran,
  northern Bakool)
• Loss of control on the income from productive
  activities, such as livestock product crop
  sales
• Lack of access to the social support for women
  left behind
• Increased burden due to fetching water, fuel and
  wood from long distances

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Nutrition Overview Gu 09
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Nutrition Nutrition Information Sources Gu 09
(April July)

• Nutrition Surveys
• 33 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (All
  FSNAU includes, 23 SMART, 4 LQAS, 5 exhaustive)
• 17 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys
  from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central
• 3 focused on concerning areas in northwest /
  northeast from Deyr analysis
• 4 focused on district / regional (Belet Weyne,
  Adale, Galgadud Mudug)
• 8 focused on IDP populations (Hargeisa, Berbera,
  Burao, Garowe, Gardo, Galkahyo, Bossasso, Afgooye
  Merka)
• 1 focused on vulnerable urban populations
  (Bossasso)
• Rapid Assessments using MUAC (137 sites 11,904
  children 6-59months)
• Predominantly, NW. NE, Mogadishu Belet Weyne
• Conducted in 46 urban centres (n4740)
• Conducted in 91 rural settlements (n7164)
• Health Centre Monitoring
• Collected from 100 health centres from all
  regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool)
• Related Selective Feeding Centre Data
• Information from partners Central, Hiran,
  Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu patchy and
  limited due to interrupted programming e.g. IMC,
  ACF

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Summary of Key Findings
Northwest Confirmation of improvement in West
Golis from Very Critical to Serious. Critical in
East Golis and Guban Karkar. Serious with risk
to deterioration in other areas, still concerns
IDP. Hot spot in south Toghdeer
Northeast Deterioration to Critical in Guban
Karkar and Serious in Nugal. IDP populations
remain Very Critical.
Central Hiran Sustained Critical in Addun, and
Hawd (slight improvement in Hawd but not sig.)
Cow pea belt and Coastal Deeh stable at Serious.
Hiran sustained Critical in riverine and Very
Critical (deterioration) in agro pastoral.
Bay/ Bakool Bay agropastoral deterioration to
Very Critical, Bakool agropastoral improvement to
Serious and Bakool Pastoral sustained Very
Critical.
Shabelles Sustained Serious in IDPs and riverine
slight deterioration (not sig) to Critical in
Agropastoral. Rapid MUAC assessment shows Very
Critical in Mogadishu.
Gedo Sustained Very Critical in pastoral
riverine. Slight improvement to Critical in
agropastoral
Juba Deterioration to Very Critical in
agropastoral and pastoral likely linked to
disease outbreak stable in riverine at Serious
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Gu 2009 Nutrition Survey Results Overview
Crude and Under 5 yrs mortality rates generally
stable with exception of Shabelle AP, Juba AP
Riverine and Gedo AP which were at alert levels
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NutritionTrends in levels of Global Acute
Malnutrition (WHO GS) Gu 2009
The national median rate is 19 GAM and 4.6 SAM
, which means almost 1 in 5 children acutely
malnourished and 1 in 20 severely malnourished.
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NutritionTrends in levels of Stunting and
Wasting (WHO GS) Gu 2009
Consider the difference in NW (11) and Sth
Central (32) !!!
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Nutrition Situation Estimates - Maps
Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
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Summary

• South / Central
• Overall mixed picture, still high levels of
  nutritional vulnerability,
• Particular concern over areas with Very
  Critical, Gedo, Juba, Bay, Bakool, parts of
  Hiran and Mogadishu in many areas more likely
  linked to disease rather than food access
• Lack of further deterioration in Central likely
  linked to humanitarian interventions however
  populations still vulnerable
• However significant decreasing humanitarian
  space for agencies to meet to provide programmes,
  fewer partners risk factor for further
  deterioration e.g. Central Bakool

• Northwest/ Northeast populations
• Overall mixed picture
• West Golis recovery likely linked to returning
  livestock, increased access to milk and
  humanitarian interventions
• East Golis Guban/ Karkar now of concern due to
  Critical rates
• Deterioration in Sool, Nugal and Hawd likely as
  a result of decreasing food security
• All IDP populations continue to be very
  nutritionally vulnerable
• More opportunities for response improvement in
  vaccination coverage due to CHD

Major contributing cases continue to be disease
(esp AWD) due to WASH deficiencies, poor IYCF,
and limited health services exacerbated by poor
dietary quality
Major contributing cases for IDPs continue to be
disease, poor IYCF, and limited health services
exacerbated by poor dietary quality - for rural
areas more linked to food insecurity
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B. Current Food Livelihood Security
Phase ClassificationsSummary Results
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Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification
Rural IPC Populations July December 2009
Rural IPC Populations January June 2009
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Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification
Urban and IDP IPC Populations July December 2009
Urban and IDP IPC Populations January June 2009
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Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC
Populations July December 2009
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC
Populations January June 2009
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Rural, Urban IDP Populations in Crisis, July -
December 2009
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Somalia IPC Table Trends in Rural, Urban IDP
Populations in Crisis
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Somalia IPC Table Distribution of Rural
Populations in Crisis

• Comparison of Deyr 08/09 and Gu 09
• HE increased from 680,000 to 775,000 (13
  increase)
• Primarily due to increase in HE in Central, Hiran
  and Bakool
• Off-set by reduction of HE in L. Shabelle
• AFLC increased from 535,000 to 640,000 (19
  increase)
• Primarily due to increase in AFLC in north

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Somalia IPC Table Distribution of Urban
Populations in Crisis

• Comparison of Deyr 08/09 and Gu 09
• HE slight decreased from 140,000 to 135,000
• Due to slight decrease in HE L. Shabelle
• AFLC decreased from 565,000 to 520,000
• Due to decrease in AFLC South (L. Shabelle, Bay,
  M Juba)
• Off-set by increase in AFLC in north

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Implications for Actions

• Humanitarian Access
• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety
  to ensure that growing number of populations in
  need, receive assistance
• Emergency Humanitarian Assistance To Save Lives
• Targeted to areas livelihood groups identified
  in HE
• Targeted to areas livelihood groups identified
  in Critical Very Critical Nutrition
• Increased attention to areas where past/current
  needs exceed response
• Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate
  (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool)
• IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and
  with high rates of malnutrition
• Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer
  Agro-pastoral Sool Plateau Pastoral)
• Emergency Livelihood Support To Save Livelihoods
  and Prevent Deterioration to HE
• Priority both in areas livelihood groups in
  AFLC, but also in HE
• Scale-up of emergency livelihood support in
  the south (L M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool)
• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought
  affected areas
• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that
  are not able to cope with prolonged high food and
  nonfood prices