Climate Change and Missouri: Potential Wildlife Consequences

1
Climate Change and MissouriPotential Wildlife
Consequences

• Alan Journet Kathy Conway
• Department of Biology Environmental Science
  Program Department of Elementary, Early
  Special Education Southeast Missouri State
  University
• E-mail ajournet_at_semo.eduWeb
  http//cstl-csm.semo.edu/journet
• Whats New?

2
Global Temperatures 1880 2005Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
BUT WHY?
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
3
The Keeling Curve 1958 - 2008
Photosynthesis gtRespiration
Respiration
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve
4
http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/a
r4-wg1-spm.pdf
5
Other Anthropogenic Gases
METHANE Fossil fuel production Livestock Rice
cultivation Burning biomass wood etc. Waste
management
CH4
But CO2 is not the only gas increasing since
1750
So what, you may ask?
To answer that a little physical detour is
needed
N2O
NOxFossil fuel combustion Fertilizers Nitrogen
fixing plants
6
The Greenhouse Effect
People living in glasshouses shouldnt throw
stones.
And your car as well.
Why the glasshouse heats up
7
IT ALL STARTS WITH INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
Higherenergy

• The atmosphere absorbs some of the incoming
  solar radiation
• Ozone is especially important.

8
What Happens to this Radiation?
9
The Actual Greenhouse Effect
Solar light rays pass through glass.
Solar rays hit surfaces ? turn to infra red
heat ? absorbed ? radiated back as heat.
Glass is barrier to heat radiation.
Greenhouse interior heats up.
This is why your car gets unbearably hot in the
parking lot during summer.
A decent starting point or model but not
totally parallel.
10
The Atmospheric GreenhouseEffect
NOTE Problem is in loweratmosphere which is
where we live
Infra-red heat
Gases in loweratmosphere absorbthe heat and
retain it does not escape into space as
readily.
Visible light
Earth
Current ave. temp app 15oC or 59oF
Without these gases temp -150C to -300C
11
Positive and Negative Atmospheric
CO2
N2O
CH4
12
400,000 years of CO2
Nearly ? today
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
13
400,000 years of CO2
and last 1000 years
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
14
Carbon dioxide now and futureAl Gores An
Inconvenient Truth
CO2 Possible Future
600
CO2 Now
If the CO2 ?Temperaturerelationship holds, what
will the temperature be?
Temperature Now
300,000
200,000
100,000
Now
15
Isnt global temperature increase just a function
of the Urban Heat Island effect?
A composite of hundreds of satellite images all
taken at night.
If this were the case, where would the
temperature anomalies be?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
16
So, where is it?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
17
Finally Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation
of Global Warming
18
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC
Established by U.N. Environment Programme and
World Meteorological Union.Composed of thousands
of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists
throughout the world who review literature,
evaluate what is happening, and provide
consensussummaries.

• AR-4 Fourth Assessment Report Feb 2007
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
  
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century
  is very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  
• Very likely gt 90

19
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

• The understanding of anthropogenic warming and
  cooling influences on climate has improved since
  the Third Assessment Report TAR 2001 leading to
  very high confidence that the globally averaged
  net effect of human activities since 1750 has
  been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of
  1.6 (range 0.6 2.4)
• very high confidence gt 90

20
Is There a Scientific Consensus?

• Scientific consensus develops from the judicious
  evaluation of data by knowledgeable experts
• This is the study of discernible reality.
• The test of consensus is the peer-reviewed
  scientific literature where researchers
  communicate and exchange ideas and subject
  conclusions to expert review and evaluation.
• It is not based on the views of politicians and
  political commentators who maintain pre-conceived
  truths that evidence cannot shake.
• It is not what novelists or internet bloggers
  think.
• In the relevant peer-reviewed literature there
  simply is no published research contradicting the
  IPCC conclusions.

21
Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
General warming but not everywhere
22
Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
Note the 1945 1975 trend to cooling
A rather mixed picture human released aerosols
23
Regional Trends
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/temperature_trends
_1976_2000
Clearly reversed from 1976 ?
N. Land masses? warming S. Ocean areas ? cooling
Overall warming but again not everywhere
Pattern?
24
Overall Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
While global average increases, some areas
decrease.
25
Are U.S. Average Temperature Data Different from
Global Patterns?
gt 0.50C incentury
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
26
Primary Information Sourcefor Missouri and
Biological Consequences

• Missouri Chapter of the Society for Conservation
  Biology
• Missouri Natural Resources ConferenceJanuary
  February at Tan-Tar-A, Osage Beach
• Workshop The Potential Impact of Climate Change
  on Missouri Biodiversity.

27
Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2006)
1938
1921
1954
1931
1946
1904
1924
1917
1979
1895
Warm Period
Cool Period
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
28
Missouri Average Winter Temperature
(Dec-Jan-Feb,1895-2006)
The winter of 2006 is defined as Dec 2006 and
Jan, Feb 2007
1931-32
91-92
99-00
97-98
01-02
Temperature (F)
1935-36
1904-05
1917-18
1977-78
1978-79
Warm Period
Cool Period
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
29
Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May,
1895-2007)
1977
1991
1946
2007
1938
1983
1947
1924
1984
1960
Warm Period
Cool Period
30
Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug,
1895-2007)
1934
1936
1901
1980
1954
1992
2004
1927
1950
Warm Period
1915
Cool Period
31
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov,
1895-2006)
1931
1963
1998
1938
1971
1951
1896
1996
1993
Warm Period
1976
Cool Period
32
Missouris Future
Higher Average Temperature w/o more rain ? ?
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
33
As goes Illinois - so goes Missouri.
Now
By 2030summer
By 2030winter
By 2095 winter
By 2095 summer
34
Biomes of the U.S.
Sierra Mtn.EvergreenForests
TransitionalConiferous Forests
Grasslands
Rocky Mtn. EvergreenForests
EasternDeciduousForests
Deserts
35
What Determines These Biomes?

• Ave.Temperature.
• Ave. Rainfall.

Biomes develop characteristic critical soils.
X
36
Biomes of the world.
So what, you might ask?
These control the agricultural and forestry
potential of our land
37
Ectotherms cold-blooded creatures are
temperature dependent.
And to HigherElevations
38
Ambient temp,body temp, and metabolic
rate relationships of a typicalEctotherm.
39
Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae,development is temperaturedependent.
40
Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae, requires 174day degrees above
10.5oC. At 11.5oC takes 174 days At 12.5oC
takes 68 days
41
SaguaroCereus giganteus -Northern limit
of distribution is where a day without
thawing occurs. Can withstand a night of
freezing,but must thaw next day.
42
Open Circles No days w/o thawing
Closed circlesat least 0.5 days w/o thawing
ARIZONA
43
Wild madderRubia peregrina,in Europe.N. limit
is Januaryisotherm of 4.5oC - Average conditions
44
Ectotherm Range Expansion
Africanized honeybeesWhen conditions
areappropriate, species expand their ranges -
at a rate allowedby the mobility of their
dispersal phases.
Molles 2002 Ecology
45
Bay Checkerspot butterflyEuphydryas editha
bayensis
Threatened west coast species Elimination of
populations at southern end of range has shifted
mean location north 92 km.
46
Distribution of Yellow birch Betula
alleghaniensis follows the 2000/5300 DEGD lines
Too few dd
Too hot
47
Tree dispersal since last ice age20,000 ybp
Molles 2002 Ecology
48
What About the Future?
Tree species are limited by climatic conditions
A common tree here now but we will no longer
be in range
49
Yellowbirch
Tree species represent complex biotic communities
of floral and faunal species.
50
As the optimum range of tree species is
adjusted,so is that for other spp.
51
As the optimum range of tree species is adjusted,
so is that for forestry and agricultural systems.
52
Biome Climate Shifts
Climatic optimum forall will shiftNorth but
soilswill stay where they are. If biomes move
N,so will fauna.
53
BorealForestDistributionRange - N. Pole View
54
Crop Production Climate

• Just like natural biomes, crops are grown under
  optimal climatic conditions temperature
  precipitation.
• Corn is a water intensive crop.
• Rule of Thumbeach 10C temp. increase ? 10 crop
  yield reduction.
• Crops cannot just move north.
• Corn grows in Iowa, wheat in Kansas,
• not only because of ideal climate which can
  move north,
• but also
• because of ideal soils and photoperiod which
  cannot move north.

Brown L.R., 2006 Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet
Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. W.W.
Norton, Co. N.Y. London 365 pp.
Sharon Begley 2008 Heat Your Vegetables Newsweek
May 5, p. 48
55
U.S. Water Usage
Jeneen Interlandi Rivers Running Dry Newsweek
(April 28th) p. 48
56
Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones
http//www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
57
Potential Climate Change Consequences for Missouri

• Increased CO2 ? More Biomass
• Higher T Drought More Biomass ?
• More Fire

Courtesy Modified from Tim Nigh, Missouri
Department of Conservation
58
Current
Climate Change
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Woodland Potential Increases in Hilly, Rugged
and Floodplain Landscapes Decreases in higher,
flatter, Upland Prairie Plains Landscapes
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
59
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Savanna Woodland Wildlife
Savanna Woodland Communities
60
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Prairie Potential Increases in all Landscapes
moving from Upland Flats and Dissected Plains
into adjacent Hills
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
61
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Grassland Wildlife
Prairie Communities
Courtesy Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department
of Conservation
62
-Moist Climate Change
Pine-Oak Woodland Ecosystem Dispersal Under
Warm-Dry Climate Change
Increase Prevalence within Current
Distribution Expand its Range
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
63
Eastern U.S. Current Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
64
Eastern U.S. Future Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
65
Do Endotherms Respond?

• Ectotherms generally fluctuate with external
  temperatures
• but
• Endotherms generate their own heat.
• Are they climate dependent?

66
The common vampire bat Desmodus rotundusN.
limit is mean January isotherm of 10oC
67
Common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus
10oC isotherm
68
Vampire BatDesmodus rotundas
69
Virginia OpossumDidelphis virginiana
A Tropical Species

• Can maintain body temp of 340C in ambiental temp
  ? -70C.
• At -100C can only maintain body temp. for 20
  minutes

70
Nine-Banded ArmadilloDasypus novemcinctus
A Tropical Species

• Northern limit
• Mean January temperature gt 20C.
• lt 24 annual freeze-free days.
• 38 cm annual precipitation.
• Inc. temp ? expand range N.

http//www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j
.1365-2699.1996.tb00024.x
71
Eastern Phoebe Sayornis phoebe,limited by
average conditionsthe 4oC isotherm
72
The 4oC isotherm, with range deviations shaded.
73
Bird Impacts?
74
Range ShiftClimate Change and the American
goldfinch
If floral habitats shift North also, presumably
will fauna
75
Habitat Loss / Alteration
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
76
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
77
Hypothesized Mechanisms Shift in Migration Timing

• Numerous examples world-wide
• e.g. Of 96 species of migrant birds in Manitoba
  in a 63-year study, 27 now arrive significantly
  earlier in spring, only 2 later
• Of 13 species in a North American study, 6 now
  delay fall departure
• Some species are foregoing migration at higher
  rates

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
78
Hypothesized Mechanisms Change in Clutch
Initiation Date

• Multiple examples from field studies
• Tree Swallows have advanced clutch initiation 9
  days in the last 30 years, on average
• one of the earliest biological consequences
  reported

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
79
Hypothesized Mechanisms Asynchronous Arrival and
Food Availability

• Long-distance migrants appear less likely to
  alter migration timing, but food is available
  much earlier
• Migrants often respond to photoperiod but
• Insect food at nesting location responds to
  day-degrees.so food surge is earlier and
  precedes nesting.

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
80
NWF-ABC Report and Model(Developed by Jeff Price)

• Bird distributions from Breeding Bird Survey
• Coupled with climatic variables (temperature,
  precipitation, extremes)
• Project future climate, assuming a doubling of
  CO2 - Canadian Climate Center data.
• Models general patterns, not specifics

The Birdwatchers Guide to Global Warming
http//www.abcbirds.org/newsandreports/globalwarmi
ng/Missouri.pdf
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
81
Species whose future climatic range mayexclude
Missouri in summer
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might contract
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might expand
Species whose future climatic summerranges might
include Missouri
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might undergo little change
82
HerpetofaunaGeneral patterns of response

• Range shifts
• Changes in developmental phenology
• Behavioral or morphological changes
• Shifts in genetic frequencies

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
83
Meta-analyses

• Parmesan and Yohe 2003
• Range limit shifts
• 6.1 km/decade poleward or m/decade upward
• Birds, butterflies, alpine herbs (99 species)
• Phenology shifts
• 2.3 days earlier/decade
• Herbs, shrubs, trees, birds, butterflies,
  amphibians (172 species)
• Root et al. 2003
• 143 species
• 80 of species with change show shifts in
  expected direction

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
84
Amphibians
Reptiles

• Dessicate easily
• Shell-less eggs laid in water or damp places
• Many depend on ephemeral wetlands

• Resist dessication
• Eggs with leathery shell to reduce water loss
• For some, sex of offspring depends on incubation
  temperature

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
85
Breeding phenology

• Warming trend since 1900 correlated with earlier
  anuran calling in NY (Gibbs and Breisch 2001)
• British amphibians breeding earlier over past 17
  years (Beebee 1995)
• But pattern not universal (Blaustein et al. 2001)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
86
Wetland hydroperiod

• Importance of temporary waters
• Intermediate hydroperiods best
• Early drying may result in zero recruitment

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
87
Temperature-dependentsex determination

• Sex ratios can be highly correlated with air
  temperatures (Janzen 1994)
• Most nests produce a single sex
• Increase of 4C could eliminate male offspring
• Behavioral or physiological compensation?
• Nest site selection and phenology (Doody et al.
  2006, Ewert et al. 2005)
• Change in pivotal temperatures (Ewert et al.
  2005, but not Doody et al. 2006)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
88
Additional factors
Climate change
Decreased female body condition and length
Reduced pond depth
Increased exposure to UV-B
Reduced egg production
Increased susceptibility to disease
Increased female mortality
Amphibian declines
Modified from Reading 2007 and Pounds 2001
Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
89
THE SEMOCPI WEB SITE
http//cstl.semo.edu/SEMOCPI/
90
(No Transcript)
91
If you enjoy fine music, please try

• KSEF Southeast Public Radio 88.9 FM
• A Musical Meander
• 800 p.m. 1000 p.m.
• Thursdays

92
So, What is the Evidence So Far?

• BBS Trend data
• Checklist Changes and Birder-Observed Trends

Fish Crow Trend Map on BBS
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
93
Significant Positive BBS Trends for species whose
future climatic summer range in Missouri might
undergo little change, 1966-2006
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
94
Significant negative BBS trends for species whose
future climatic summer range in Missouri might
undergo little change, 1966-2006
Difficult to tease out habitat destruction from
climate change effects
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
95
Enhanced status species whose future climatic
summer range in Missouri might undergo little
change

• Carolina Wren
• Eastern Bluebird
• Prothonotary Warbler

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
96
Reduced status species whose future climatic
summer range in Missouri might undergo little
change

• Blue Jay
• Dickcissel
• Eastern Towhee
• Eastern Meadowlark

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
97
Selected species whose future climatic range may
exclude Missouri in summer (35)

• Acadian Flycatcher
• Chickadees
• House Wren
• Gray Catbird
• Ovenbird
• Summer Tanager
• Indigo Bunting
• Chipping Sparrow
• Song Sparrow
• Baltimore Oriole
• American Goldfinch

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
98
Significant Positive BBS Trends for species whose
future climatic range may exclude Missouri in
summer, 1966-2006
99
Significant Negative BBS Trends for species whose
future climatic range may exclude Missouri in
summer, 1966-2006
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
100
Accidental to rare nesters - Species whose future
climatic range may exclude Missouri in summer

• Least Flycatcher
• Chestnut-sided Warbler
• Savannah Sparrow
• Pine Siskin

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
101
Reduced status - Species whose future climatic
range may exclude Missouri in summer

• Black-capped Chickadee
• Sedge Wren
• Yellow Warbler
• Prairie Warbler
• Cerulean Warbler
• Grasshopper Sparrow

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
102
Significant BBS Trends species whose climatic
summer range in Missouri might contract, 1966-2006
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
103
Status changes for species whose climatic summer
ranges in Missouri might contract

• Purple Martin (0)
• Cliff Swallow ()
• Tufted Titmouse (0)
• White-breasted Nuthatch (0)
• Brown Thrasher (-)
• Northern Parula (0)
• Louisiana Waterthrush (0)
• Common Yellowthroat (0)
• Field Sparrow (0)

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
104
Significant BBS Trends for species whose climatic
summer ranges in Missouri might expand, 1966-2006
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
105
Status changes for species whose climatic summer
ranges in Missouri might expand

• Western Kingbird
• Scissor-tailed Flycatcher
• Bewicks Wren --
• Loggerhead Shrike -
• Bells Vireo -
• Yellow-throated Warbler
• Pine Warbler (0)
• Blue Grosbeak
• Painted Bunting (0)
• Lark Sparrow -
• Western Meadowlark (0)
• Great-tailed Grackle

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
106
Species whose future climatic summer ranges might
include Missouri

• Vermilion Flycatcher (Casual transient)
• Ash-throated Flycatcher (No records)
• Chihuahuan Raven (No records)
• Cactus Wren (No records)
• Black-headed Grosbeak (Rare transient)
• Cassins Sparrow (Hypothetical)
• Bullocks Oriole (Hypothetical)
• Lesser Goldfinch (Accidental transient)

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
107
Southern/Western species now nesting in Missouri,
but not mentioned in the predictions
Courtesy Bethany Williams
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University