Anchoring

1
Anchoring Adjustment

• Plous Ch 13

2
View on wheel How many African countries in UN?

• Wheel 65
• Estimates African Countries - UN
• 45

• Wheel 10
• Estimates
• African Countries - UN
• 25

3
Anchoring adjustment bias - non-numeric
predictions

• Positive or Negative
• essays
• ..gt
• Opinions on
• SALT II
• (even with )

4
Anchors - Low probability events

• Nuclear war
• US - Russia
• low anchor (less 1)
• high anchor (90)
• BOTH influenced
• subjective estimates

5
Anchoring adjustments - BUDGET ESTIMATES

• Psychological explanation
• Theories of Public Budgets
• T1 minor incremental change
• status quo bias budgets, Court decisions,
  public policy initiatives

6
Whats best prediction next years BUDGET
(policy proposal)???

• What BUDGET today?
• Whats policy today
• minor, INCREMENTAL Adjustments
• (small increase small decrease)

7
Variants satisficing

• find good enough solution

• status quo anchor
• gt
• incrementalism
• Lincoln Bloomfield

8
Why is there a status quo bias in Public Policy
(the law)?

• Cognitive
• ANCHORS
• Incremental
• adjustments

• Political
• ANCHORS
• political pressures for minor adjustments to
  (political or legal) status quo