South Asian Energy and Emission Perspectives for 21st Century

1
South Asian Energy and Emission Perspectives for
21st Century
Kankar Bhattacharya Dept of Elect. Comp.
Engg., University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario,
N2L 3G1, Canada kankar_at_ece.uwaterloo.ca

• Jyoti Parikh
• Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research
• Gen. A. K. Vaidya Marg,
• Mumbai-400 065, India
• jp_at_igidr.ac.in

2
Objectives

• Examine energy supply strategies for South Asia
  in 21st century for different scenarios of
  economic growth
• Determine region's role in world energy policies
  in 21st century
• Identify strategic changes the region would
  undergo in energy supply profile in 21st century
• Proceeds on similar lines as the parent work on
  global energy perspectives by IIASA-WEC

3
IIASA-WEC Scenarios
4
South Asian Countries
5
World Regions and Various Indicators
6
SAS and the World Primary Energy Shares

• SAS accounted only 5 of world PE in 1990
• Projected to grow moderately in 21st century
• C1, C2 project a high growth
• 20 share projected
• In absolute terms, total PE consumption globally
  will reduce
• Other scenarios project share of 15 by 2100

7
SAS and the World Final Energy

• 6 of world's consumption in 1990
• Expected to increase steadily during 21st Century
• By 2100 share 16 - 22
• Solid fuel share (coal, biomass) expected to
  increase steadily with respect to world and
  account for about 30
• A3 projects 50 of global solid fuel consumption
  by SAS in 2100
• Implies solid fuel use will slowly diminish in
  other regions while SAS continues to use them
• Liquid fuel use (oil, methanol) will steadily
  increase
• Except B, others project 6-9 by 2100

8
SAS and the World Electricity Consumption

• Meager 2 of world's total in 1990
• Projected to steadily increase in 21st century
• more so after 2050
• By 2100, SAS is expected to account for 14 - 19
  of world's total
• Trend same for district heating, gas (as final
  energy) and hydrogen
• By 2100, projected to account 14 - 28 of global
  consumption, increasing from a meager 1 share in
  world's total in 1990

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Energy Supply Scenarios Primary Energy

• Consumption levels would double or triple by 2030
• 4 to 6 times by 2100
• 2-3 growth rate projected in all scenarios
  until 2050
• After 2050 growth rates remain 1 -1.5
• Energy intensity improves in all cases as a
  result of economic development of the region and
  improvement in technology.
• While Case A and B primarily signify economic
  growth as a cause for improvement, Case-C due to
  energy efficiency improvement and other economic
  instruments
• In 2100, 1 unit of GDP would require 9-16 of
  the energy required in 1990

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Energy Supply Scenarios Primary Energy
Energy Intensity
Gross Consumption
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Energy Supply Scenarios Primary Energy
COAL
OIL
Nuclear
Natural Gas
12
Primary Energy.. Contd.
Biomass
Hydro
13
Energy Supply Scenarios Primary Energy

• Coal will retain its importance until 2040
• Very high in A2 and B, until 2100
• Oil will retain importance during 2010 2050
• A1 until 2100
• Gas will retain importance during 2020-2060
• B until 2100
• Nuclear will dominate after 2050
• Except C1 scenario
• Renewables (incl. Hydro will increase steadily)
• Except A2 and B
• Biomass will reduce steadily
• But enough until 2070- because other regions are
  insignificant

14
Power Generation Scenarios

• Electricity- major contributor to SAS development
• Growth 3 - 5 /year until 2070, below 2/year
  after 2070
• In India it has been 7-8 during 90s.
• It would be interesting to analyze "supply
  shortages" projections
• since growth rate in supply is only 3-4
• Fossil fuel generation will reduce and by 2040
  reach minimum
• 2020 onwards fossil fuel generation to remain lt
  20 of total
• Raises issues in planning for new capacities
• Many new projects are fossil fuel based
• If share lt 20 ? low load factor operation, high
  cost inefficiency
• Issues of regulation, power purchase agreements,
  etc.
• Require revision of planned targets, policies at
  national level

15
Power Generation Scenarios
Share of fossil-fuel based
Gross
16
Power Generation Scenarios

• Share of nuclear, hydro other renewable
  increase drastically
• From 30 in 1990 to 80 - 90 by 2100
• Bio-mass, wastes, geothermal and solar,
  over-shadow hydro until 2050 while nuclear
  dominates after 2050
• Hydro energy share lt 5 in 2100
• Reason for phasing out of hydro in favor of other
  renewable sources or nuclear is not forthcoming
• Estimated that India has gt 70 GW of untapped
  hydro potential
• Coal-based generation (55 in 1990) rapidly
  declines
• Except A2, B and A1 20 share till 2100
• To support this generation, 300 GW 500 GW new
  capacity required by 2100
• Implies intensive coal-based capacity addition
  after 2050
• A3, C1 C2 expects coal fully replaced by other
  technologies by 2050

17
Power Generation Scenarios

• Oil based generation (7 in 1990) eliminated by
  2030 (except A2)
• Gas-based generation has significance and various
  roles projected
• C1 optimistic after 2040
• A1, C2 predict a very low share, less than 5,
  all through the period of study
• A1 signifies availability of oil and gas in large
  quantities but not gas-based generation
• Contrary to present trends
• Have a significant role but specific contribution
  remains undecided

18
Power Generation Scenarios

• Three distinct views on role of nuclear power in
  South-Asia
• C1- nuclear replaced completely by other
  technologies (renewable, biomass)
• A1, B- projects a share of 50 in total
  generation
• A2, A3, C2- project a share ? 70 by 2100
• Renewable sources to increase share (30 in 1990,
  mainly hydro)
• 50 - 80 share projected by all scenarios
• However with hydro share reducing to 5 and
  biomass to 20, this seems unlikely
• Wastes, geothermal and solar accounting for such
  large share needs to be examined

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Carbon Emission Scenarios
Per capita emission
Share of SAS w.r.t World
20
Carbon Emission Scenarios

• SAS share in projected to grow significantly (3
  of global carbon emission in 1990)
• C1 projected SAS as worst defaulter- 46 of
  global emissions in 2100
• However, the other scenarios project a carbon
  emission share for South Asia as 10-19 of
  world's total in 2100
• Per-capita 0.24tC - 0.5tC until 2050 in all
  scenarios
• Much less than any other world region barring
  sub-Saharan Africa
• Beyond 2050, significant variation in per capita
  emission
• C2 projects 0.16 tC
• A2, B projects 1.2 tC and 1.4 tC respectively

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Carbon Emission Scenarios (contd.)
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Carbon Emission Scenarios (contd.)

• Total C emission projections are similar until
  2030
• A2, B- high emission of 3.2 GtC and 2.6 GtC,
  respectively in 2100
• Even A1, relying on oil and gas, predicts high
  emission of 1.75 GtC in 2100.
• A3 stabilizes emission beyond 2070 at levels
  existing in that year
• C1, C2 predict the lowest of 0.92 GtC and 0.33
  GtC respectively, by 2100
• In C2 emission reduces in actual terms beyond
  2060
• Total CO2 emission projected 20 Gtons in 2030
• Projections for 2100 from 2030 levels
• Case-C 2-3 times increase
• A1, A3 4-fold increase
• A2, B 6-7 fold increase

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Concluding Remarks 1

• This work compares energy supply profile of South
  Asia w.r.t world's in 1990
• IIASA-WEC scenarios analyzed to determine
  regions role in world energy policies in 21st
  century
• Significant growth of economy projected after
  2050 and would account gt 33 of global GDP
• Existing agro-based economy to structurally
  change.
• Services and industrial sectors would play a much
  larger role

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Concluding Remarks 2

• Energy consumption grows in absolute terms as
  global share
• Primary energy consumption projected 10-fold
  increase by 2100
• Supply mix to dominated by nuclear and renewable
  instead of present dominance of biomass and coal
• Oil and gas to participate in the supply mix as
  transitional fuels
• Dependence on energy imports to be significant
  though somewhat reduction projected on
  "environment friendly" scenarios in the later
  part
• Electricity sector would have a steady growth,
  though the rate of growth is expected to be high
  after 2050
• Fossil based generation, which had the dominance,
  will be gradually phased out by nuclear and
  renewable
• However, the study projects a diminishing role
  for hydro generation in the region, which needs
  to be examined

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Concluding Remarks 3

• SAS to account 20 of world's final energy
  consumption by 2100
• Coal to contribute until 2050 while biomass loses
  share steadily
• Gas, electricity, district heating methanol
  grow in shares after 2050
• Reversal in sectoral shares expected when
  industrial sector is to take over while
  non-commercial sector likely to be eliminated.
  Residential and transport sector energy
  consumption expected to increase significantly
• SAS to emerge as largest global energy sector
  investment market
• Investment requirement to increase gt 15-fold in
  the least, by 2100
• Investment / GDP shows decline indicating energy
  intensity improvement continuous progress along
  technological learning curve
• Power sector will call for highest investment,
  40 - 60 of total energy sector investment by
  2100
• To meet growing demand, primary resource
  extractions are also expected to increase in the
  region

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Concluding Remarks 4

• Environmental emissions are expected to follow
  suit
• SAS would account for 20 of the worlds CO2
  emissions by 2100
• In worst case, emission likely to increase 20
  times 1990 levels in 2100 Energy sector would
  account for about half of the total emission
• Energy sector of SAS is projected to
• go through a drastic transition
• rapid growth
• bring in huge investments
• gradually emerge a significant player in global
  scenarios