Development Economics - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 41
About This Presentation
Title:

Development Economics

Description:

Infant mortality first, then adult mortality. 3 main factors, not independent ... Quantity-quality trade-off drawn by the increased ... of rice shoots up. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:49
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 42
Provided by: lamb166
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Development Economics


1
Development Economics
  • Population
  • Health Nutrition

2
World population
3
Source Demographic Yearbook, 2004, United Nations
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
Demographic transition
  • Mortality decrease
  • Infant mortality first, then adult mortality
  • 3 main factors, not independent from each other
  • Health technologies (infrastructures, drugs,
    global public goods)
  • Mothers education (quality of nutrition and
    child care)
  • Income increase (nutrition).
  • Fertility transition
  • Progressive adjustment to the number of children
    actually wanted (strategic complementarities)
  • Quantity-quality trade-off drawn by the increased
    survival of children
  • Further decrease in the number of birth due to
  • Lowering uncertainty on life expectancy of
    children
  • Change in the economic and social condition of
    women
  • Strong variations of the dependency ratio over 30
    to 50 years
  • Problem labour market absorption capacity.

10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
Fertility choices
  • Demand for children (Becker - 1960)
  • Expected benefits
  • Missing markets
  • Old age support
  • Insurance
  • Child labor
  • Costs
  • Child rearing (direct and indirect costs)
  • Uncertainty
  • Child survival
  • Child earnings in adulthood
  • Child attention to its parents in adulthood.
  • Increases the number of desired children
  • Can be reduced through changes in mortality rates
    through information

13
Income improvements and fertility choices
14
Is fertility too high?
  • Information
  • relative to current mortality rate
  • Uncertainty
  • overshooting
  • Externalities
  • Within societies
  • Within families
  • Social Norms
  • Television.

15
Population issues
  • Negative impact
  • Malthusians models
  • Other models with capital dilution (Solow,
    Ramsey)
  • Impact of black plague and influenza / Imapct of
    AIDS ?
  • Examples of organized lowering of fertility
    (China, Tunisia)
  • Positive impact
  • Models with technical progress depending from the
    population (Boserup, Simon)
  • New consensus non significant impact ? health
    issues

16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
Health and Nutrition
  • Descriptive elements
  • Measures
  • Relation between health/nutrition and income
  • Difficulties to identify causal relations
  • Impact of income on health/nutrition
  • Impact of health on income
  • Theory of efficiency wage
  • Empirical results

19
Nutrition and income
20
Famines
  • Not always due to insufficient availability of
    food resources at the country level
  • Sen Problem of access to available resources
    trade entitlement failure.
  • Articulation between initial endowments and
    economic and social environment.
  • Ex of Bengal in 1943. Relative price of rice
    shoots up. Terms of trade labour/rice decrease
    from 100 in 1939/40 to 32 in 1942/43 households
    who suffered most fishermen and agricultural
    wage workers. (6,4 of sharecroppers and small
    farmers died while 40,3 of agricultural wage
    worker did).

21
Health and income Strong correlation between
income and nutrition, that diminishes with the
countrys standard of living
22
During the war, the increase in the stature of
Vietnamese men was brought to a halt.
23
The health/wage correlation is not entirely due
to difference in education.
24
Measuring health
  • Health is multidimensional
  • Several measures
  • Each dimension can have a different impact on
    productivity and/or labour supply.
  • Measures of health
  • Measures de nutrition

25
Measures of health
  • General Health Status Self-evaluation of health
    status on a scale from 1 to 5.
  • Doesnt capture the multiplicity of health
    dimensions
  • How to interpret the answer  good health?
  • What is the norm? Comparability issue.
  • Individuals with low access to the health system
    over-estimate their health status (they assume
    they are ok as long as they dont have any
    contrary information)
  • Measurement error systematically correlated with
    income under-estimation of the impact of health
    on wage.

26
Measures of health (2)
  • Symptoms
  • Diarrhoea, fever, respiratory difficulties
  • Same measurement error problem than GHS
  • Days where normal activity could not be carried
    out.
  • Individuals for whom the opportunity cost of time
    is the highest loose less days.
  • Norm is adapted to physical condition.
  • Capacity to undertake certain efforts
  • For the younger individuals, there is very little
    variance.

27
Nutritional measures.
  • Calories availability
  • Food expenditures (including self-consumption)
    are converted into calories.
  • Suppose no losses
  • Does not take into account meals taken outside
    the home or offered to visitors.
  • Calories intake
  • Weighing before and after meals.
  • 24 hours recall
  • The difference between availability and intake is
    positively correlated to income.

28
Nutritional measures.(2)
  • Anthropometric Measures
  • Size long term indicator, determined by
    nutrition in infancy.
  • Body Mass Index (weight in kg / (size in m)²)
    indicator of current nutritional status. Higher
    mortality risk for BMIlt18 or gt30.
  • Arm circonference
  • Measurement errors are not systematically
    correlated to individual characteristics.
  • Can be used as control when using calories
    consumption data (needs are correlated to BMI).

29
Relation income/nutrition
  • A priori, it exists both ways
  • Income ? nutrition/health through food
    consumption and demand for health care.
  • Nutrition/health ? income through its impact on
    productive capacity.
  • Serious identification problems.

30
Theoretical framework
  • Production function for health
  • HH(N,L A,B,D,?,eh)
  • where N health inputs and Llabour supply
  • A individual characteristics, B family
    characteristics, D health environment.
  • ? unobservable, e measurement error.
  • Wage function
  • ww(H A,S,B,I,?,ew)
  • S education, I community variables
    (infrastructures)

31
Identification Problems
  • If ? and ? have common components, the estimated
    effect of health on wage will be over-estimated.
  • Simultaneity
  • cpo
  • ? If N increases w, via H, hence the implicit
    price of N decreases and its consumption
    increases.

32
  • Reduced form for nutrition demand
  • Nj Nj (pn , pc , A,S,B,V,D,I, ? ,? ,?)
  • ? also appears in the wage function (hence the
    simultaneity issue.
  • Possible instrumental variables conditionnally
    to H and I, pn and D could be valid instruments
    for health in wage functions. Often distance to
    health infrastructures, quality, food price
  • Problem in case of endogeneous placement.

33
Impact of health on labour supply
  • Same difficulties
  • In reduced form, impossible to say whether imapct
    of health on labour supply is due to productivity
    (income effect and/or price effect) or to the
    direct effect of preferences.
  • Identifying the structural modelrequires to find
    the appropriate instruments.
  • Pitt, Rosenzweig Hassan 1990 estimate a
    structural model.
  • Foster Rosenzweig 1994 Healthiest individuals
    choose pice-rate remuneration or
     self-employed  jobs. Daily wage workers put in
    less effort.

34
Impact of income on nutrition
  • Elasticity of calories demand with respect to
    income
  • If high, there exist substitution possibilities
    with other consumption if calorie cost increases.
  • From the nutritional point of view it is not
    necessarily desirable.
  • Very varied results from 0,86 in Sierra Leone
    (Strauss 1984), to 0,01 in Indonesia
    (PittRosenzweig 1985)

35
Impact of nutrition on productive capacity
efficiency wage theory
  • Leibenstein (1957) at low levels of nutrition,
    the production capacity is weak. When nutrition
    improves, productive capacity increases, first at
    increasing rate and then at decreasing rate.
  • (Stiglitz, Dasgupta, Ray)

36
There exists a minimum wage ( efficiency wage )
under which productivity jumps discontinuously to
very low levels.
37
Other consequences
  • In equilibrium, involuntary unemployment affect
    individuals in poor health.
  • Non-wage inequalities are transmitted to the
    labour market.
  • Long term labour contracts should be observed
    because of future returns to current nutrition.
  • Intra-family disparities
  • No empirical results to confirm convincingly the
    existence of the poverty trap suggested by
    theory.
  • Pitt, Rosenzweig Hassan 1990 intra-family
    inequality, but taxation of the better endowed.
  • Rural wages in India gtgtgt nutritional minimum
    (Swamy, 1997)
  • Daily labour contracts.

38
Impact of nutrition on productive capacity
  • But, despite empirical difficulties, results
    point to a rather positive effect
  • Strauss 1986, Sierra Leone, elasticity of
    agricultural production to calories intake0,33,
    i.e. a worker who consumes 1500 calories a day is
    0,6 times less productive than the one who
    consumes 2400.
  • Sahn Alderman, 1988, Sri Lanka, elasticity of
    male wage to calorie consumption0,2.

39
Impact of health on income
  • Stronger for the poor, not very big
  • Brazil (ThomasStrauss) not be illiterate
    30cm
  • In general it disappears with instrumentation.
  • Thomas Strauss, Brazil
  • Size has the strongest effect
  • BMI increases male wage, mainly for the less
    educated
  • Calories intake increases wage at very low level
    of consumption
  • Protein intake has higher returns for highest
    consumption levels.
  • Schultz Tansel, impact of illness
  • Côte dIvoire men having lost 1 day of work
    during the month have a wage lower by 18 no
    effect in Ghana no effect for women.

40
Controlled experiments
  • Cure against schistosomiases (sugar cane
    plantations)
  • Tanzania increase the income of infected workers
    but not enough to catch up with non-infected
    workers.
  • Cameroon no effect, but no difference ex-ante
    either.
  • Iron supplementation (rubber - Indonesia)
  • Anaemic workers (20 less productive than others)
    , catch up with others after 60 days of treatment
    (about 300 obs.,).
  • Caloric supplementation
  • Small positive imapct of hourly productivity
    (Kenya, 47 obs. )

41
Other impact of health
  • Impact on education
  • Glewwe Jacoby, Ghana impact of undernutrition
    on age of entry at school
  • Miguel Kremer, Kenya, Deworming increases
    attendance but does not improve the results at
    cognitive tests.
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com