Magnitude and trends of

1

• Magnitude and trends of
• noncommunicable diseases

2
Distribution of deaths by leading cause groups
(males and females, world, 2004)
3
NCDs cause premature deaths in LMICS
4
Projected deaths by cause and income (2004 to
2030) WHO
Intentional injuries
Other unintentional
Road traffic accidents
Other NCD
Cancers
CVD
Mat//peri/nutritional
Other infectious
HIV, TB, malaria
5
Noncommunicable DiseasesBurden of disease in
disability adjusted life years (2004)
Launched October 2008
6
Noncommunicable DiseasesGlobal burden of disease
attributable top 20 risk factors (2002)
Underweight
Unsafe sex
High blood pressure
Tobacco
Alcohol
World Health Report, 2002)
Unsafe water, SH
High cholesterol
Indoor smoke from solid fuels
IIron deficiency
High BMI
Zinc deficiency
Low and middle income
Low fruit and vegetables
High income
Vitamin A deficiency
Physical inactivity
Occupational injury risks
Lead exposure
Illicit drugs
Unsafe health care injections
Lack of contraception
Childhood sexual abuse
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Attributable DALYs ( total 1.44 billion)
7
Noncommunicable DiseasesTobacco is a risk factor
for 6 of the 8 leading causes of death
(World Health Statistics, 2008)
8
Tobacco Rising production and consumption in
developing countries
9
Tobacco The poor and uneducated are the ones who
smoke the most
Smoking prevalence in Bangladesh (1995)
Source Sen, B Hulme D, 2004
10
Overweight and obesity in people over 15 selected
countries
11

• The epidemiological transition in this region is
  already well advanced all countries are at risk
  irrespective of income and socioeconomic
  development

12
Adult mortality (2004)
13
Prevalence of tobacco use among males in the
Eastern-Mediterranean Region
Launched February 2008
14
Noncommunicable DiseasesAdult Overweight and
Obesity in Arab Countries
15
Noncommunicable DiseasesOverweight among school
children (13-15 yrs old)
16
Noncommunicable DiseasesAge-adjusted estimates
of diabetes prevalence in theEastern-Mediterranea
n Region
(Source Comparative DM prevalence, table 1.12
and 1.13 of Diabetes Atlas)
Adults (20-79)
17

• SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS

18
Impact of increasing medical costs and the need
for prevention

• Total Health Expenditure per capita ranges
  between US 325 to 2750
• Out of pocket spending ranges between 18-23 THE
• Advanced epidemiological and demographic
  transitions are expected to result in a several
  fold increase in health care spending in Gulf
  Cooperation Countries in the coming 2 decades
• Prevention has to be taken seriously
• Sources WHO WHR 2008,- WHO NHA database,
  WHO-EMRO, Mapping health care financing, EMR
  countries

19
Catastrophic Expenditures

• Studies in some Arab countries show that 2-4.5
  of the population face catastrophic expenditures
  meaning spending 40 or more from their
  disposable income (excluding food), when a member
  of the family becomes sick
• 5.5 - 13 millions individuals may face such
  situation every year
• 1-1.4 of the households are pushed into poverty
  when a member of the family becomes ill,
  resulting into 2.5 to 4 millions of poor
  individuals for the whole region
• (Source B. Sabri WHO/EMRO)

20
Proportion of family income devoted to diabetes
care
Source Ramachandran A Diabetes Care 2007
21
In Conclusion Barrier to Development

• CVDs and other NCDs Will Further Widen the Health
  Gap between Rich and Poor Countries
• They Are Killing and Disabling People at Their
  Peak Productivity
• They Will Slow Economic Growth Rates in Poor
  Countries