DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

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DAC PROJECTCapacity Building in Balcan
Countriesfor the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases
Skopje - 22.3.2002

• Setting priorities for GHG emissions reduction

George Mavrotas NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF
ATHENS
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STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION

• Analysis of the current situation Recognize
  priorities
• Indicative measures and policies
• Evaluation of the measures
• Priorities according to local experts
• Concluding remarks

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Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU
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Distribution of CO2 emissions
First priority Measures that affect electricity
production
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Power generation
Electric efficiency 40 CO2 emission factor0.98
tCO2/MWh
Electric efficiency 35 CO2 emission factor0.95
tCO2/MWh
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Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation

• High Priority
• Reduce solids - increase renewables (hydro, wind)
  and natural gas in power generation mix
• Improve efficiency
• Clean technologies (hydro, NG) for base load
• Minimize transmission losses
• The goal is to improve energy efficiency of the
  existing infrastructure and to gradually upgrade
  the whole sector by adding cleaner and more
  efficient technologies.

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Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors

• The aim should be 3-fold
• To increase energy efficiency through
  minimisation of energy losses
• To upgrade existing infrastructure with new
  appliances/equipment
• To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables

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Measures and Policies for the Residential
Tertiary Sector

• Improved maintenance of central heating systems
• Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings
  (insulation double glazing)
• Updating building specifications for new
  buildings
• Buildings shading
• Use of low energy lamps
• Use of efficient domestic appliances
• Automatisation in lighting
• Solar water heating systems
• Further penetration of natural gas
• District heating with biomass
• CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc)

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Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector

• Improved maintenance of energy equipment
• Energy conservation (reduction of losses)
• Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas
• Cogeneration with natural gas
• Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues)

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Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector

• Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks and
  buses
• Improvement of road network
• Improvement in traffic lighting
• Promotion of public transport
• Increased natural gas in public transport

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Evaluation of measures

• Cost estimation
• Cost per ton of CO2 saved (specific cost)
• Contribution to CO2 emissions abatement
• Marginal abatement cost curve
• Additional criteria
• Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures,
  administrative-legislative barriers)
• Environmental synergies
• Impact on employment and regional development

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Cost per ton of CO2 saved

• Comparison with the relative baseline scenario
  option
• Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and
  the reference time period (e.g. 1year)
• Cost and CO2 emissions estimation for the
  baseline scenario option (without the measure)
• Cost and CO2 emissions estimation with the
  measure implementation
• Cost of measure per ton of CO2 saved

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CO2 abatement estimation

• Specify the target year
• Assume a penetration rate of the measure at
  target year
• Estimate the CO2 abatement at target year
• CO2ab(CO2b-CO2m)ref_unit ? unitstarg_year ?
  penetration_rate

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Greek case ranking according to the specific
cost of measures
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Greek case ranking according to the CO2
abatement in 2010
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Greek case Marginal abatement cost curve for 2010
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Example Economy lamps

• Baseline scenario Incandescent lamps
• Base of calculations 1 typical household (100
  m2)
• Reference time period 1 year

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Example Economy lamps (2)

• Annualized cost per lamp
• Incandescent 0.88
• Economy lamp CRF(4, 8 years)?14.67 0.149
  ?14.67 2.19
• Annualized cost per household
• Incandescent 7.1 lamps/household ? 0.88 /lamp
  6.22
• Economy lamps 7.1 lamps/household ? 2.19 /lamp
  15.40
• Annual electricity cost ( 0.062 /kWh)
• Incandescent 0.062 /kWh ? 294 kWh 18.11
• Economy lamps 0.062 /kWh ? 73 kWh 4.53

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Example Economy lamps (3)

• Total annual cost per household
• Incandescent 6.22 18.11 24.33
• Economy lamps 15.40 4.53 19.93
• Power generation data
• Transmission losses 10
• Average emission factor (2010) 0.987 kg CO2/kWh
• Power generation CO2 emissions per household
• Incandescent 0.987 ? 294/(1- 0.1) 322 kg CO2
• Economy lamps 0.987 ? 73/(1- 0.1) 81 kg CO2

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Example Economy lamps (4)

• Abatement cost
• (19.93 24.33) / (322 kgCO2 81 kgCO2)
  -18.22 / tCO2
• Number of households in 2010 600.000
• Penetration of the measure until 2010 50
• CO2 abatement in 2010
• 600.000 ? (322 kgCO2 81 kgCO2) ? 0.5 72.3 kt
  CO2

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Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001)
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Questionnaire results (2)
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Questionnaire results (3)
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Questionnaire results (4)
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Concluding remarks

• First priority Power generation sector
• Criteria for the evaluation of measures
• Cost per ton of CO2 saved
• CO2 abatement for target year
• Applicability, synergies, employment
• Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project
  quantification of the measures