The prospect of domination of the nations scholars by federal employment, project allocations, and t

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The prospect of domination of the nations
scholars by federal employment, project
allocations, and the power of money is ever
presentand is gravely to be regarded. Yet,
holding scientific research and discovery in
respect, as we should, we must always be alert to
the equal and opposite danger that public policy
could itself become captive of a
scientific-technological elite.
-President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Farewell
Address, January 17, 1961
-Cato Institute?
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Natural Science (on-line journal) James E.
Hansen, September 2003
Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been
appropriate at one time, when the public and
decision-makers were relatively unaware of the
global warming issue... 
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which translates into our working to reduce
the risk of potentially disastrous climate
change. To do that we have to get some
broad-based support, to capture the publics
imagination. That, of course, entails getting
loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up
scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic
statements, and make little mention of any doubts
we might have.
-Dr. Stephen Schneider
Discover Magazine,
December 1989
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SNOWJOBS ABOUT DISAPPEARING ICE
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Satellite Temperature Trends, 1979-present
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Global Temperature History vs. Mt. Kilmanjaro
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Argentiere Glacier - 1966
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Argentiere Glacier - 1850
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Western Montana Temperature History
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The North Pole is MeltingThe last time
scientists can be certain that the Pole was awash
in water was more than 50 million years
ago. -New York Times, August 19, 2000, Page A1
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Arctic Temperature History
(Serreze et al., 2000)
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Arctic Temperature Anomaly, 62.5N and Poleward
Source Polyakov, 2002
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Would not argue with critics who said that open
water at the pole was not unprecedented. The
data scientists are now studying reveal
substantial evidence that on average Arctic
temperatures in winter have risen 11 degrees over
the past 30 years. Citation Mark Serreze,
University of Colorado -New York Times, August
29, 2001, Page D3
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Arctic Temperature Trends, 1966-1995
(Serreze et al., 2000)
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Headline Arctic Ice is Melting at Record
Levels, Scientists Say First sentence The
melting of Greenland glaciers and Arctic Ocean
sea ice this past summer reached levels not seen
in decades, scientists reported today.
-New York Times,
December 8, 2002.
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HOW SCIENTISTS DISTORT
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Greenland ice level rate -0.04 /- 0.2 inches
per year. (Krabill et al., Science 2000) Used
1994-1999 as comparative period, compared to
1979-99
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Southwest Greenland Temperature History
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Southeast Greenland Temperature History
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Southwest Greenland Temperature History
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Greenland Temperature History
Coastal Regions
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Surface Temperature
Hanna and Cappelen, Geophysical Research Letters,
2003
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Krabill to Reuters This thinning is a clear
indication that the global climate is warming up.
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HURRICANES
Hurricanes are a part of our life, and global
warming foretells, for us, an increased intensity
of hurricanes and an increased frequency of
hurricanes. -Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) (June 8,
2001)
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Hurricanes and Global Warming
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Maximum Wind Speeds in Atlantic Tropical
Systems 1944-2003
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TORNADOES
These superpowerful tornadoes are the kind of
storm were likely to see more of with global
climate changewith energy added to the
atmosphere, more frequent and intense storms are
a probable outcome. -Washington Post Cartoonist
Tom Toles (May 7, 03)
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U.S. Tornado Deaths
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U.S. Tornadoes
Strong U.S. Tornadoes
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WORLD WILDLIFE FUND, 2000 Polar Bears at Risk.
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20 populations of Polar Bears 46 stable,
17 in decline, 14 increasing, 23 unknown
Strange Math!
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ARCTIC TEMPERARTURE TRENDS 1950-1995 Przybylak,
International Journal of Climatology, 2000.
POLAR BEAR POPULATION TRENDS World Wildlife
Foundation
Yellow unknown green stable blue
decreasing red increasing
Yellowno data greenno significant
change bluecooling red warming
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TUVALU AND THE MEDIA
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Sea Level Rise, 1955-1996
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DEATH AND DYING
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Daily Mortality vs. 4pm Apparent Temperature
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Decadal Average Mortality, 1964-1998
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AN EXTINCTION OF LOGIC?
Dr. Patrick J. Michaels Senior Fellow in
Environmental Studies Cato Institute Professor
of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia
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EXTINCTIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Counter-Paradigm View Until Global Warming
Became Popular Instead, Extinctions Were
Largely Driven by Population Dynamics and
Competitive Exclusion Pendulum Will
Eventually Swing More to the Middle
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Argentiere Glacier - 1966
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Argentiere Glacier - 1850
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IPCC Northern Hemisphere Temperature History
.
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Warm Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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Cold Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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SEVERAL IMPORTANT RECENT PAPERS
Parmesan, C., 1996. Climate and species range.
Nature, 382, 765-766. Parmesan, C., et al.,
1999. Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of
butterfly species associated with regional
warming. Nature, 399, 579580.
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UNITED NATIONS TEMPERATURE HISTORY ZONE OF
MAXIMUM EXTINCTION Northern Mexico
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UNITED NATIONS TEMPERATURE HISTORY ZONE OF
MAXIMUM EXPANSION Southern British Columbia
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TEMPERATURE CHANGE, HIGH-EXTINCTION
GRIDCELLS Rural Northern Mexico minus Southern
California
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CONCLUSIONS
Butterflies going extinct in Northern Mexico
because of Climate Change Butterflies are
expanding in British Columbia because of Climate
Change
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FINDINGS FOR EUROPEAN BUTTERFLIES
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NORTHERN END OF RANGE
65 of species extended range northward 35
exhibited no change 2 exhibited no change
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SOUTHERN END OF RANGE
5 shifted south 22 shifted northward
72 remained stable
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CONCLUSION Butterfly Diversity Increasing!
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WORLD WILDLIFE FUND, 1996
PREDICTION Drier weathercould be particularly
severe for birds in the Plains States of Canada
and the United States since half of all North
American ducks breed in prairie pothole wetlands
that could disappear as a result of global
warming.
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FACT
United Nations Precipitation Data North Central
U.S. and South Central Canada
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Gibbs, J. P., and A. R. Breisch. 2001. Climate
warming and calling phenology of frogs near
Ithaca, New York, 1900-1999. Conservation
Biology,15, 1175-1178.
PREDICTION November-June warming is making
frogs around Ithaca, New York croak earlier in
the spring. Compared 1900-1912 to the 1990s.
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FACT
Theres no significant difference in
temperature in the periods studied
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Kiesecker, J. M., A. R. Blaustein, and L. K.
Belden. 2001. Complex causes of amphibian
population declines. Nature, 410, 681-684.
CONCEPT Ultraviolet radiation is damaging toad
eggs in ponds in Oregons Cascade Range between
1990 and 1999 because of decreasing water levels
caused by lowered precipitation in the winter.
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FACTS
Theres no trend in October-March in the
Cascades. Five of the last six years in the study
period had above-average rainfall. What about the
entire period from 1912-45, which was drier than
any other?
October-March Precipitation, Oregon
Cascades Source U.S. National Climatic Data
Center
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MARQUEE SPECIES Penguins and Polar Bears
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Antarctic Temperature History (1956-2000)
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Temperature History and Penguin Breeding Success
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Root, T.L., et al., 2003. Fingerprints of global
warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421,
57-60. Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe, 2003. A
globally coherent fingerprint of climate change
impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421,
37-42.
CONCEPTS changes in the distribution of species
are consistent with warming. Covered prominently
by both New York and Los Angeles Times.
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FACTS
No one, author or reporter, bothered to note the
implications of the math.
Root Average northward movement is 3.8 miles
per decade, or 2,000 feet per year. This would
put Washington DCs biota in Baltimore around
2102. Parmesan At the current rate of change,
spring, 2103 in Washington will arrive at the
same time it does now in Raleigh, North
Carolina. (Climate models generally predict
constant, not increasing rates of warming)
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THE MASSIVE EXTINCTION OF LOGIC
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Thomas, C.D., et al, 2004. Extinction risk from
climate change. Nature 427, 145-148 QUOTE OF
THOMAS IN WASHINGTON POST Were talking about
1.25 million species. Its a massive
number. QUOTE FROM PAPER Estimates for
minimum expected climate change
0.8-1.7C-p.147 are 9-13 extinction with
dispersal and 22-31 without dispersal.
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FACT
Weve already had this change. Where was the
mass extinction from climate change? How could
the reviewers miss this?
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Balsam Fir Distribution