Weather Product Development

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Weather Product Development

• Tom Fahey
• Manager - Meteorology
• Northwest Airlines

A Northwest Airlines Perspective
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Shared Goals
Wx Product Development

• Improved Safety
• Increased Efficiency
• Reduced Costs
• The Challenge
• No two Airlines Define them the same

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Turbulence Encounter Costs

• Costs
• Minor Injury - 38 K
• Serious Injury - 518 K
• Death - 2.7 Million
• Source U.S. Federal Government Office of
  Management and Budget (OMB)

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NWAs Implemented Initiatives
Wx Product Development

• Turbulence Plot System (TPS)
• Convective Wind Shear Alerts
• Strategic Planning Team (SPT)
• Collaborative Convective Fcst Prod (CCFP)

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Convective Wind Shear Alerts

• Source
• FAA TWIP System
• Distribution Methods
• Pilot Request
• Unsolicited Uplink (Send/Cancel Msgs)
• Pt Addressed Varied Operating Philosophies

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TWIP Airports
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Bogus Alerts
Convective Wind Shear Alerts

• NWA Study Jan-May 2000
• 72 Bogus Alerts - No Storms within 15nm
• (25 ranged 50-95kts)
• (22 ranged 30-50 kts due gusty winds)
• 100s Bogus Alerts - No Storms within 15nm
• (100s ranged 20-25kts due gusty winds)

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Support, Resources and Gaps
Convective Wind Shear Alerts

• Real time Quality Control
• Conceptual Models
• Convection Induced Shear
• No Storms within 15nm Induced Shear
• Training

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CCFP
Wx Product Development

• Excellent Example
• Rapid Development
• User Driven

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CCFP Rapid Development

• 1997
• 1998
• 1999
• 2000

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CCFP Support, Resourcesand Gaps

• NWA Role
• Industry Perception
• AWC Issues
• Meteorologist Role
• CWSUs
• Airline Meteorology Offices
• FAA and SPT Role

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Summary
Wx Product Development

• Design Requirement
• Adaptable to varied users
• Recipe for Success
• User Driven Specs
• Potential for Failure
• Lack of on going quality control
• No Conceptual Model Updating
• No Recurrent Training