Transitioning to a PostCarbon Economy

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• Transitioning to a Post-Carbon Economy
• November 17, 2007
• Parkland Institute
• Richard Heinberg

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Energy Transitions are Crucial

• Adoption of fire
• Agriculture
• Domestication of traction animals
• Development of ever more sophisticated tools to
  leverage available energy (horse collars, plows,
  gears)

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World Energy
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Chevron
Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48
largest oil producing countries, yet energy
demand is increasing around the globe as
economies grow and nations develop.
www.willyoujoinus.com
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A simple observation -- or why peak will be
earlier than most people expect

• Global production falls when loss of output from
  countries in decline exceeds gains in output from
  those that are expanding.

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Global crude oil production
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The export quandary

• Every year there are fewer exporters, more
  importers
• Exporters are also consumers, so the amount
  available for export is production minus domestic
  consumption
• With high prices, exporting countries are flush
  with cash, their economies are growing, domestic
  oil consumption is rising
• Result Available exports will start to shrink
  before peak and shrink much more rapidly than the
  rate of decline in total global oil production

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How serious a problem is this?
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Peaking of World Oil Production Impacts,
Mitigation, Risk ManagementRobert L. Hirsch,
SAIC, Project Leader (commissioned by US
Department of Energy, February 2005)

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe peaking of world oil
  production presents the U.S. and the world with
  an unprecedented risk management problem. As
  peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and
  price volatility will increase dramatically, and,
  without timely mitigation, the economic, social,
  and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable
  mitigation options exist on both the supply and
  demand sides, but to have substantial impact,
  they must be initiated more than a decade in
  advance of peaking.

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What about the other fossil fuels?
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Oil Sands of Alberta

• A combination of sand, clay and bitumen, rich in
  sulfur
• Unlike conventional oil recovery, oil sand
  extraction is usually a mining process
• Extraction of oil sands takes massive volumes of
  energy in fueling heavy equipment, and in heating
  the substrate so that oil can be removed
• 1Mb/d today, perhaps expandable to
• 3 or 4 Mb/d--at enormous cost!

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Evaluating Energy Options

• Energy return on investment
• Size of resource
• Infrastructure requirement
• Convenience of use
• Environmental impact
• Renewability
• Scalability
• Location of resource

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25 Options

• Alternative fossil fuels
• Deepwater, ultra-deepwater, and polar oil and gas
• Gas liquids and condensates
• Shale oil
• Tar sands, heavy oil, extra-heavy oil
• Gas-to-liquids
• Coal-to-liquids
• Methane hydrates (clathrates)

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25 Options (continued)

• Alternatives to fossil fuels
• Ethanol
• Biodiesel
• Methanol
• Thermal depolymerization
• Hydrogen
• Sources of electricity
• Nuclear
• Tides, waves
• Wind
• Solar (PV and thermal)
• Hydro
• Biomass

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Options (continued)

• Conservation
• Efficiency
• Curtailment
• in
• Transportation
• Agriculture
• Housing and construction
• Urban design

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Ethanol to the rescue?

• Even if all of the 300 million acres (500,000
  square miles) of currently harvested U.S.
  cropland produced ethanol, it wouldnt supply all
  of the gasoline and diesel fuel we now burn for
  transport, and it would supply only about half of
  the needs for the year 2025. And the effects on
  land and would be devastating.
• --The False Hope of Biofuels For Energy and
  Environmental Reasons, Ethanol Will Never
  Replace Gasoline (James Jordan and James
  Powell, Washington Post, July 2, 2006)

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Nuclear renaissance?

• A 30 increase in nuclear capacity is possible
  with a moderate increase in the price of uranium
  causing a mild increase in the price of nuclear
  electricity.
• If nuclear energy is to become a major solution
  to our energy problems, the huge needed increase
  in nuclear capacity would make nuclear energy too
  expensive too be competitive with other
  alternatives.

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Hydrogen carswhen?

• Hydrogen is not an energy source
• There are significant storage problems
• Spending money on hydrogen research tends to take
  investment capital away from the development of
  primary renewable energy sources
• Electricity is a more practical
• carrier in most cases

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Non-Fossil Electricity Sources

• Nuclear
• Hydro
• Wind
• Solar (PV and thermal)
• Tides, waves
• Ocean thermal (OTEC)
• Biomass
• Geothermal

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Hydro

• Hydro potential can be increased 50 with
  construction of new dams
• However, environmental costs are often
  prohibitive
• Microhydro workable in many remote areas

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Wind

• Existing capacity small, but much room for growth
• Because of intermittency, a practical cap of 25
  of total electricity production
• Vertical axis designs helpful in some areas

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Solar

• PV solar is expensive but good for remote areas
  new materials in development
• Solar thermal works well only in very sunny areas
• Solar hot water practical in most places

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Tides and Waves

• Potential is best in certain coastal estuaries
• In those places, already economic

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Biomass

• Not intermittent (advantage over solar, wind)
• Can use variable materials (wood, agricultural
  waste, sewage sludge)
• Limited by soil, water, land

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Geothermal

• For major power generation, sites are limited
• Renewable?
• Ground-source heat pumps practical most places

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Conservation Efficiency and Curtailment

• Like alternative energy sources, conservation
  (efficiency) requires investment.
• Investments yield diminishing returns.
• However, at least in the initial stages,
  efficiency is almost always cheaper than new
  supply options.
• Curtailment is the cheapest option of all, but
  requires changes in habits and expectations.

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• Agriculture transition from oil-based
  industrial model to more labor-intensive,
  localized, organic model

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• Transportation Rail and light railthe best
  long-term options for motorized land transport of
  freight and people

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