National Conference

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Gulf Coast Bank Symposium

• National Conference
• April 30, 2007

Dr. Loren C. Scott Loren C. Scott Associates,
Inc. www.lorencscottassociates.com
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Post Katrina/Rita

• New Orleans MSA

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How to create 50,000 jobs without really trying!

• Amazing revisions in March!
• Unable to contact by phone 0.
• New firms entered not on survey list, show up
  when file unemployment comp report

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Why so slow? Housing, Housing, Housing

• Sheer size 181,966 rendered uninhabitable
• Flood waters
• Homeowners insurance no Flood insurance yes
• Limits on flood insurance coverage
• No flood insurance? 74!
• New base flood elevation level April 2006!

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Why so slow? Housing, Housing, Housing

• Road Home program delays
• MS-LA split
• Governor/Legislature design program June!
• Hire firm to administer
• 1st checks October! (Only 6,969 issued by end of
  4/9/07)
• Administrative style of Governors

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Big question

• Which of 3 decisions will homeowners make with
  Road Home money?

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As of 1/8/07

• Applications received 95,944
• Option 1 64,480 67.8
• Option 2 11,216 11.8
• Option 3 1,438 1.5
• Undecided 12,573 13.2
• No info available 5,437 5.7

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As of 1/8/07

• Orl. St.B. Jeff.
• Option 1 30,160 4,819 10,677
• Option 2 3,835 4,284 511
• Option 3 752 425 71
• Undecided 5,549 2,494 788
• No info available 742 185 323

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Barriers to Rebuild

• Getting Road Home monies
• Getting home repaired
• Utility rates
• Entergy NO
• 534 miles low pressure lines
• 310 miles high pressure lines
• All electric power grid repairs
• 626 mm (200mm from LRA)
• Water company
• Produce 130 mm gallons per day bill out 90 mm.
• Homeowners insurance
• 250k home in Belle Chase - 7,688 annually
• 145k in Gentily - 4,300 annually

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Major Construction Ahead

• Over 1 billion on bridges
• 806 mm new, 6-lane twin span over Ponchartrain
• 660 mm to widen Huey P. Long Bridge
• 1.2 billion for debris removal
• 1 billion a year next 4 years for Corps levee
  projects
• 7.5 billion fed s to rebuild homes
• Entergy Little Gypsy Retrofit 1 billion
• Two large refinery projects
• Marathon (from 2 billion to 3.2 bill)
• Valero Norco 400 mm
• Hyatt Jazzland Center 715 mm (On hold)

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Major Construction Ahead

• Ten large condo projects, ranging in size from 88
  350 units (some saying no now)
• Trump Tower 842 feet tall, 200 mm
• 160 mm remake of World Trade Center
• 282 mm expansion of D-Day Museum (300 mm)
• VA/Charity Hospital 1.2 billion?
• Pinnacle 145 mm for Boomtown
• 314.9 mm expansion of Convention Center (no now)

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The Great Challenge(Aside from Housing)

• Convention Market
• Down from 524,000 (Fall 04) to about 197,000
  (Fall 06)
• Convention Center expansion on hold
• Six Flags reopening? Official website says no.
• Carnival Cruise Lines delaying 2nd ship
• Fairmont Hyatt still off line

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Two hearse funeral
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Lake Charles The Rita MSA

• The big surprise

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Impact Katrina/Rita on Housing
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Lake Charles Post-Rita

• All public schools open
• All hospitals open
• Airport enplanements 11.6
• Lost two casinos
• Harrahs sells both to Pinnacle
• Pinnacle to spend 350 mm on Sugarcane Bay
• Move other boat NO or BTR
• All but three hotels back open

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Saying things clearly?
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Difficult to Say When Drunk

• Indubitably
• Preliminary
• Proliferation

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Very Difficult to Say When Drunk

• Specificity
• Antidisestablishmentarianism
• Loquacious
• Transubstantiate

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Downright Impossible to Say When Drunk

• Thanks, but I dont want to have sex.
• Sorry, but youre not really my type
• No, I just couldnt. No one wants to hear me sing.

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Baton Rouge MSA Post Katrina/Rita

• Evacuees In Evacuees Out

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Post-Katrina Impacts Baton Rouge MSA

• Evacuees in
• MSA population increased 248,386 (34) overnight
• BTR Parish sales tax collections 34 in
  September)
• Median family home price 27
• Largest among 151 MSAs in country
• Traffic city!
• Evacuees out
• Population Oct. 05 14.9 July 06 5.3
  (Claritas Inc.)
• Traffic count
• I-12 near split Nov. 05 22 Now 3.1
• I-10 MS Bridge Nov.05 26 Now 2.9

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Population Change Katrina/Rita to 6/06

• EBR 19,264 4.7
• Asc 6,882 7.6
• Liv. 5,847 5.4
• Orl. -228,782 -50.6
• St. Ber. -49,633 -76.2
• Jeff -19,688 -4.4

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Katrina Effects

• Biloxi-Gulfport
• Pascagoula MSAs

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Impacts of Katrina on Housing in Mississippi And
the Biloxi-Gulfport MSA
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Biloxi-Gulfport MSA Casino Recovery Track
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Biloxi-Gulfport Casino Future

• Ten now open
• 13,000 employees (v. 16,000 pre-Katrina)
• Revenues back to pre-Katrina levels
• Hard Rock to reopen summer 07 (1,300)
• More planned
• Bacaran Bay 500 mm resort (fall 2008)
• Broadwater 1 billion
• Golden Nugget purchased land near Point Cadet
• Isle of Capri 250-300 mm western Harrison
  County.
• Trump 40 acres near Diamondhead
• West DIberville 250 mm project
• Bayview Ventures Biloxi Back Bay area

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Hotels Biloxi-Gulfport

• Pre-Katrina 14,880 rooms
• December 2005 4,044 rooms
• December 2006 8,239 rooms
• 55.4 pre-Katrina

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Other Biloxi-Gulfport Economic Indicators

• By November 15th all seven hospitals operating at
  full service
• All public schools reopened by November 1st
• Harrison County enrollments down 16.6
• Hancock County enrollments down 16.2
• Port of Gulfport
• Tonnage at 64.7 of pre-Katrina
• Airport down 72 initially now all back

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Post Katrina/Rita

• Pascagoula MSA

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Impacts of Katrina on Housing in Mississippi And
the Pascagoula MSA
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Pascagoula Manufacturing

• Of 16,500 jobs pre-Katrina, 13,000 were at
  Ingalls
• Sustained 1 billion in damages
• Salt water damage to vehicles, man-lifts, and
  machinery on site.
• New 2.49 billion Navy contract!

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Other PascagoulaEconomic Indicators

• By September 5th all three hospitals operating
• All public schools reopened by October 3rd
  (enrollments down 10)
• Hotel rooms
• 2,654 pre-Katrina
• 2,470 post-Katrina (93.1)
• Port of Pascagoula Back to 100 of pre-Katrina
  capacity

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MS Positives

• SeverCorr Steel Mill
• 880 mm investment completed
• 450 jobs Tier Is IIs???(07-III)
• Northrop Grumman Ingalls 1,000?
• New Toyota plant Blue Springs
• 1.522 billion investment
• 2,000 new jobs Tier Is IIs??? (late 2008)
• More casinos
• Gulf Coast Natchez
• Ergon-Bunge Vicksburg
• 100 mm investment
• Largest ethanol plant in Southeast

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MS Positives

• ACCO Brands Boonville
• 55 mm investment
• 330 new jobs
• Capital City Convention Center Jackson
• 65 mm investment
• 700 jobs
• Two LNG terminals near Pascagoula
• New SPR facility near Richton
• 1.0 to 1.5 billion
• American Eurocopter Lowndes 130 jobs

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MS PositivesCoastal Rebuild

• 5 bill in Community Development Block Grants
• Hurricane Katrina Homeowner grant program
• Phase I
• Grants up to 150,000
• Residents with homeowners insurance, located
  outside flood plain, flooded by Katrina
• Rebuild to International Residential Building
  Code, Advisory Base Flood Elevation maps,
  maintain flood insurance

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MS PositivesCoastal Rebuild

• Hurricane Katrina Homeowner grant program
• Phase II
• Subsidy up to 50,000
• 7,000-10,000 moderate income homeowners (under
  120 of area median income)
• Homes damaged by storm surge but not eligible for
  Phase I
• Available if choose to sell damaged property
  relocate within lower 6 counties
• 100 mm to public housing
• 125 mm to owners of 10 or fewer rental units
• 35 mm to encourage construction of rental
  property

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MS Negatives

• Closure Sara Lee slaughter/processing facility
  -1,220 jobs
• La-Z-Boy closures -400 jobs
• Oreck closure -450 jobs
• Closure Pascagoula Naval Station

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Arkansas
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Arkansas Positives

• Fayetteville area hot
• Walmart vendor additions---both national
  international
• Strong service sector growth
• Population increasing 1,200 a month
• Fayetteville Shale
• North of I-40
• Quadrupled rig count
• Alberto Culver Hair products Jonesboro (400
  jobs)
• Nestle and Frito Lay (200 jobs)
• Health Care expansions especially in Little
  Rock
• Baldor Electric 100 jobs

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Arkansas Negatives

• Appliance sector shrinking
• Maytag closure (-800)
• Whirlpool moving more to MX (-900)
• Weakness in forestry sector due to housing
  slowdown
• Poultry struggling with high feed fuel costs
• Missed out on
• ThyssenKrupp
• Toyota
• Hino Truck manufacturing

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Alabama
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Alabama Positives

• BRAC
• Movement of Army Material Command, Space
  Missile Defense Command, part of Missile
  Defense Agency to Huntsville Net about 4,000
  military civilian jobs
• Anniston Army Depot 350 jobs
• Verizon HQ call center to Huntsville 1,300
  jobs
• Trinity Glass Distribution Center - Birmingham
  400
• 500 mm Kronospan plant Anniston 700
• Alpha Institute of Biotechnology Huntsville
  500-600

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Alabama Positives

• Furnival Cabinetry Mobile 800??
• Several new or expanding Tier I and Tier II auto
  suppliers
• Daewon America,Nikki American Fuel Systems,
  Cylpro Automotive, GMB Automotive, Hoerbiger
  Weidmann, etc., etc.
• Austal Shipbuilding Mobile 250

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Significant Alabama Job Losses

• 10 bill merger of Regions/AmSouth Birmingham
  -3,700 over 2007-08
• Delphi Huntsville -1,335
• BF Goodrich Auburn -400
• WestPoint Homes Auburn -325
• Shoal Creek Mine Birmingham -455

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Alabama Potentials

• ThyssenKrupp steel mill
• 2,900 permanent jobs
• Between Mobile and South Louisiana
• Know May 11th??
• EADS/Northrop Grumman bid to build new fleet of
  aerial refueling tankers in Mobile 1,000 jobs

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Florida Panhandle

• Military Tourism/Retirement

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Fort Walton-Destin MSA

• BRAC impact less than thought
• Joint Strike Fighter coming
• Offset by loss of F-15 training unit (a wash)
• F-15 leaves before JSF comes in
• Still getting Army Rangers from Fort Bragg
• Net gain less than 6,500 projected
• Plus, down before up
• But military construction now 700 mm rather than
  300 mm.

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Fort Walton-Destin MSA

• Retiree flow in wake of hurricanes slowing down
• Okaloosa County population change
• July 00 July 05 6
• July 05 July 06 -0.5

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Pensacola MSA

• BRAC losses
• Early projections -1,600
• Now -800 to 1,000
• Retiree flow in wake of hurricanes slowing down
• Escambia County population change
• July 00 July 05 0.4
• July 05 July 06 -0.1
• Santa Rosa County
• July 00 July 05 20.2 (14th in state-small
  base)
• July 05 July 06 1.5 (35th in state)
• Naval Federal Credit Union call center Rising
  fro 700 to 2,000

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Panama City MSA

• BRAC losses
• Tyndall AFB tiny
• Naval Support Station Tiny
• Retiree flow in wake of hurricanes Not as bad as
  Pensacola or Ft. Walton-Destin
• Bay County population change
• July 00 July 05 8.8
• July 05 July 06 1.4
• New airport under construction
• Open 2009
• Two industrial/commerce parks attached

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Tallahassee MSA

• Government big
• Government of employment
• Tallahassee 21.5
• Florida 14.5
• U.S 16.6
• Florida State U 29,820
• Florida AM 16,000-17,000
• Tallahassee Com. College 13,000
• State Capital

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Gulf Coast Bank Symposium

• National Conference
• April 30, 2007

Dr. Loren C. Scott Loren C. Scott Associates,
Inc. www.lorencscottassociates.com