Presentation to the Santa Barbara Womens Political Committee

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Presentation to the Santa Barbara Womens
Political Committee

• Celinda Lake
• Friday, March 18, 2005

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The Political Landscape
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More women than men voted in 2004 as well as in
2000.
2000 105 million voters 56.9 million women
voters 48.5 million men voters 2004 118
million voters 63.6 million women voters 54.2
million men voters
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Jobs and the economy were the top issues for
voters in 2004.
I am going to read you a list of issues that may
have come up during the election. Please tell me
which one of these issues was most important to
you in deciding who to vote for-
CNN exit polls Moral values 22 Economy and
Jobs 20 Terrorism 19 Iraq 15 Health care
8 Taxes 5 Education 4
LSPA Omnibus Poll 2004
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Moral and ethical values topped the list among
voters in California, however among Kerry voters,
jobs and the economy was the top issue.
Which issues, if any, were most important to you
in deciding how you would vote for president
today? (up to two responses accepted)
LA Times Exit Poll
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Jobs and the economy was the most important issue
for Democratic women, while Republican women said
homeland security and terrorism was the most
important issue.
Democratic women Jobs and the economy
38 Health care and prescription drugs 14 Iraq
11 Social Security and Medicaid 7 Homeland
Security and Terrorism 6 Moral values 3
Independent women Homeland Security and
Terrorism 27 Jobs and the economy 20 Iraq
17 Health care and prescription drugs
11 Moral values 11 Social Security and
Medicaid 8
Republican women Homeland Security and
Terrorism 24 Moral values 15 Jobs and the
economy 13 Iraq 8 Health care and
prescription drugs 6 Social Security and
Medicaid 3
LSPA Omnibus Poll 2004
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Throughout the election, women were much more
concerned than men about homeland security.
Gallup polling two weeks before the election
found 44 percent of men compared to 75 percent
of women worried that someone in their family
would be a victim of terrorism.
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While many issues were important in the 2004
election, security was the key factor for swing
women who voted for President Bush.
It is terror it is safety. I mean if the whole
world gets blown up then it doesnt matter what
the economy does or whether we have a job. But
so what is more important? (College-educated
20-55 year old woman in Pittsburgh)
There is just so much uncertainty in many areas-
the economy, the war, and the issues with
terrorism. (Non college-educated 51-75 year old
woman in Columbus)
A woman in Columbus voiced this concern, My mom
was a huge Kerry fan and we argued so many times
about this whole thing. And I said it is either
going to be on our soil or its going to be on
theirs. Where would you want it to be, mom? Its
going to happen. 
A blue collar woman in Columbus remembered, That
Bush was going to stand up there and he was
going to get them and he was going to protect us
and protect our freedom. He just took that stand
right away and I mean he was right up front about
it. He wasnt going to mess around.
LSPA conducted focus group research for the DNC
among white, working, married women who voted for
George W. Bush in 2004, but either considered
voting for John Kerry or voted for Al Gore in
2000. Two focus groups were held in Pittsburgh,
PA on Nov. 21, 2004 and two in Columbus, OH on
Nov. 22, 2004.
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President Bush benefited from a deep concern that
changing leadership during the war would weaken
our national security and endanger their
families' safety.
One Columbus woman explained, My deciding factor
was I didnt want to change horses in the middle
of the storm with the war and have poor old Kerry
really not know what he was doing and we get in
there and its a bigger mess than it already is.
I thought it would show that the United States
was weaker if we put a new President in during
wartime. (Non college-educated 20-55 year old
woman in Pittsburgh)
One older blue collar woman in Columbus put it
this way, The way Kerry felt about the Vietnam
War and with us being in a war right now, I was
afraid, to be honest with you, that he would do
something drastic to change the way things are
now. Like just pull all of our troops out and
everything. And I just didnt think at this time
that the issues would be done and so that really
scared me.
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Although there was agreement with John Kerry on
many key domestic issues, these women felt they
could not trust him, in part because of the
successful Republican efforts to define him and
in part because they never felt they got to know
him that well.
We still dont know who Kerry is, in my
opinion. (Non college-educated 51-75 year old
woman in Columbus)
An older blue collar women in Columbus echoed the
sentiments of these women, Because I think
Kerry would sell us down the road. He is
always saying that the other countries should get
involved and that we shouldnt be the one footing
the bill. But someone has to stand up and we
have to stand strong. And I dont think he would
be the leader to support us.
As one college-educated women in Pittsburgh said,
I just felt that Bush was going to do something
about the terrorism. And I felt that because
Kerry was so wishy-washy, hes say one week he
was for the war and then the next week in another
debate or whatever, hed say he wasnt soI just
felt like if he got in there he wasnt going
tohe was going to pull the troops out and then
wed be back to worrying about somebody bombing
some place where somebody we love is.
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The Bush campaign did a good job of defining
Kerry, discrediting him and planting doubt which
made it difficult for Kerry to break through and
have a dialogue with the public. In the end the
Republicans were successful in making everything
Kerry did or said suspect to these women.
One college-educated woman in Pittsburgh shared
this assessment, I just thought hearing him
speak and of course it was in the debates and
things like that, he seemed wishy-washy on
issues.
One Columbus woman stated emphatically, I mean
he would say one thing and then it seemed like he
said it just to appease that person or group that
he was talking to.
One blue collar women in Pittsburgh expressed
this thought, It was like anybody would ask him
a question and hed have a prefab answer he was
not going to answer it. He would just go back to
something that was a prefabricated answer.
I didnt feel a close bond with him. I just
couldnt he was too slick. (Non
college-educated 51-75 year old woman in
Columbus)
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Keeping America safe remains a key issue for
these swing women voters who are convinced there
will be more attacks in the future.  However,
they are concerned about other issues health
care, education, jobs, and Social Security.
As one blue collar woman in Pittsburgh said, I
dont want Bush to send more jobs overseas.
Thats the one thing that I didnt like.
One blue collar woman stated, Bush wasnt real
clear on his Social Security and that whole thing
on that debate. It all started sounding like it
wasnt making a whole lot of sense to me.
Because I liked a couple of Kerrys policies
like we talked about earlier. So that was kind
of my like you know, why I was kind of leaning
towards him but then I just couldnt because of
the trust. (Non college-educated 51-75 year old
woman in Columbus)
A blue collar woman in Columbus explained, I
think Kerry had a lot of good ideas,
unfortunately I dont know if he would have been
able to carry them out.
Kerry kept saying I have a plan, I have a
plan, but we never heard it. (College-educated
20-55 year old woman in Pittsburgh)
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Morals, values and family played a large role in
many of these womens decisions, and although
they have a difficult time defining it, it is not
about a religious right agenda.  However, most
importantly, when these swing women voters talk
about values, they focus on raising children and
the threat our culture places on them.
I am worried about the future for our children.
(25-50 year old woman in Columbus)
One woman in Columbus captured the sentiment of
the group when she stated, I am concerned about
a lot of things, the children that are having to
raise themselves like someone else said, and the
state of society in general, the general lack of
respect.
Like I said, I would have liked to have seen
more of Kerry interacting with his family or
something. (Non college-educated 20-55 year old
woman in Pittsburgh)
An older blue collar woman in Columbus explained,
Bushs sincerity, his honesty, his moral
issues, the family thing, and that he seems like
such a family man, that he comes from a good
family. I think that women would look at that,
especially married women.
I just like Bushs family. I dont know how
to exactly put it. Just the fact that it seemed
like a well-rounded, Christian, moral family as
opposed to out in left field someplace. (Non
college-educated 51-75 year old woman in
Columbus)
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Democrats association with Hollywood is a major
negative image in the context of morals, values,
and family, and the presence of celebrities
during the campaign did not help. 
Even election day you turn on the radio and
celebrities were coming out of the woodwork, they
were calling people, and it made me so mad to
think that just because you are in movies that
you think that the mass is going to follow you
and that we are that stupid. You know, I just
thought it was playing on my stupidity. (25-50
year old woman in Columbus)
An older blue collar woman in Columbus explained,
The Democrats were a little bit too close to
Hollywood and the celebrities and Michael Moore
was not an asset, not at all.
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There was a gender gap in the 2004 Presidential
election.
In 2000 Women 54 Gore, 43 Bush Men 42
Gore, 53 Bush.
CNN Exit Poll 2004
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In California, there was less of a gender gap in
the 2004 Presidential election.
LA Times Exit Poll
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Looking back at the 2003 recall election, women
split on whether or not to recall the Governor.
LA Times Exit Poll
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The Gender Gap for Democratic Presidential
Candidates
Percentage of votes for Democrats over time
FEMALE VOTERS MALE VOTERS
SOURCE NY Times exit polls 2004
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The drop in the womens vote for Democrats was
greatest among

• White women
• Working women
• Married women
• Older women
• Suburban women

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Unmarried women leaned more towards Kerry in this
election while married men were more supportive
of Bush.
Unmarried women comprised 22.4 percent of the
2004 electorate, up from 19 percent in 2000
according to exit polls.
In 2000married men 38 Gore, 58 Bush -
unmarried men 48 Gore, 49 Bush
married women 48 Gore, 46 Bush - unmarried
women 63 Gore, 32 Bush
NY Times Exit Poll 2004
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To varying degrees there is a gap among age and
gender.
Percentage of votes by age and gender
In 2000men 18-29 41 Gore, 51
Bush women 30-44 53
Gore, 45 Bush men
30-44 42 Gore, 52 Bush
women 18-29 53 Gore, 42 Bush
men 45-59 41 Gore, 55 Bush
women 45-59 53 Gore, 44
Bush men 60 older
44 Gore, 53 Bush women 60
older 56 Gore, 42 Bush
NY Times Exit Poll 2000 and 2004
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Non-white women were the most supportive of Kerry
while white men were the most supportive of Bush.
In 2000 white men 36 Gore, 60 Bush
white women 48 Gore, 49 Bush
CNN Exit Poll 2004
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White women were more supportive of Kerry in
California compared to nationwide.
In California only
CNN Exit Poll 2004
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Non-secular voters and Jewish voters were more
supportive of Kerry than Bush in the 2004
Presidential election than religious voters.
In 2000 Protestant 42 Gore, 56 Bush
Catholic 50 Gore, 47 Bush
Jewish 79 Gore, 19 Bush
Other 62 Gore, 28 Bush
None 61 Gore, 30 Bush
CNN Exit Poll 2004
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Women would have liked to hear the candidates
talk more about womens equality and equal pay as
well as the prevention of violence against women.
Do you think the candidates for President talked
about this issue too much, not enough, or about
the right amount?
Among voters overall
Among Women
LSPA Omnibus Poll 2004
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Voters, particularly women, express a strong
desire for womans equity as part of the
Presidents agenda for the future.
How big of a priority should this issue have in
the Presidents administration over the next four
years regardless of who wins? Please use a scale
from 0 to 10, where 10 is a very high, top
priority and 0 is a very low priority and you can
pick any number in between.
Voters overall
Women
LSPA Omnibus Poll 2004
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Female Candidates in the 2004 Election
      Womens representation in US Congress has
increased. According to data collected by the
Center for American Women and Politics, a record
number of women will service in the US House of
Representatives in the 109th Congress. Sixty
female incumbents won re-election (including
three non voting delegates) and eight new female
members were elected. Factoring in the three
female members who left their House seats, there
are 68 women in the House in the 109th Congress.
      The gender make-up of the US Senate is
unchanged. Fourteen women will continue to serve
in the 109th Congress. Although no new female
candidates were elected, five female incumbents
Barbara Boxer, Blanche Lincoln, Barbara Mikulski,
Lisa Murkowski, and Patty Murray were
re-elected to another term.      The number of
women seeking office in state legislators has
decreased slightly, but is similar to figures
from recent years. 2,207 women ran for state
legislative seats in 2004, down slightly from the
2,228 who ran in 2000. It was a tough
year for female gubernatorial candidates. Only
three women ran for Governor in the 2004 General
Election. Ruth Ann Minner was re-elected in
Delaware, Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri, and
Christine Gregoires close race in Washington was
a narrow victory after a vote recount.
Source Data collected by the Center for
American Women and Politics
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Women in Politics
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A strong majority believes that the country for a
woman president. This sentiment also holds strong
along gender lines, although ironically women are
less supportive than men.
Do you think the United States is ready for a
woman president?
Siena Research Institute/Hearst Newspapers-
2/10-17/05, 1,125 registered voters, margin of
error /-3
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An overwhelming majority says that they would
vote for a woman for President
Siena Research Institute/Hearst Newspapers-
2/10-17/05, 1,125 registered voters, margin of
error /-3
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However, voters split radically on which party is
more likely to put up a woman candidate in 2008.
Do you think a woman will be on the Democratic
Party ticket for president in 2008?
Do you think a woman will be on the Republican
Party ticket for president in 2008?
Siena Research Institute/Hearst Newspapers-
2/10-17/05, 1,125 registered voters, margin of
error /-3
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Hillary Clinton leads among the potential 2008
candidates, a full 16 points ahead of the next
challenger
If the Democratic primary was held today, which
of the following candidates would you support to
be the Democratic nominee for President?
Zogby poll, 2/14-17/05, 921 likely voters, margin
of error /-3.3
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On key issues, voters believe that job
performance is independent of the Presidents
gender, except on domestic issues, where more
voters say women would do a better job.
Do you think a woman president would be better or
worse than a man president, or not different, on
the following issues
Siena Research Institute/Hearst Newspapers-
2/10-17/05, 1,125 registered voters, margin of
error /-3
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Looking to the Future
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A majority of voters believe the country is off
on the wrong track.
Generally speaking, would you say things in this
country are heading in the right direction, or
are they off on the wrong track?
ASSOCIATED PRESS/IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Conducted 3/7-9/05 surveyed 1,001 adults margin
of error /-3
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Other than on foreign policy, voters generally
disapprove of the job Bush is doing on most
important issues and overall.
Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or have
mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is
handling his job as president?
ASSOCIATED PRESS/IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Conducted 3/7-9/05 surveyed 1,001 adults margin
of error /-3 (release, 3/11)
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Voters disapprove of the way President Bush is
handling the economy.
How about the economy, do you approve or
disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
the economy?
CBS News/New York Times Conducted 2/24-2805
surveyed 1,111 adults margin of error /-3
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A plurality says they think the economy is
staying about the same.
Do you think the economy is getting better,
getting worse, or staying about the same?
CBS News/New York Times Conducted 2/24-2805
surveyed 1,111 adults margin of error /-3
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They are slightly more divided on how President
Bush is handling the situation with Iraq.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W.
Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
CBS News/New York Times Conducted 2/24-2805
surveyed 1,111 adults margin of error /-3
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Voters also divide on how they think the U.S. is
doing in bringing stability and order to Iraq.
How would you say things are going for the U.S.
in its efforts to bring stability and order to
Iraq?
53
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CBS News/New York Times Conducted 2/24-2805
surveyed 1,111 adults margin of error /-3
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However, a strong majority thinks Bush has not
yet developed a clear plan to get American troops
out of Iraq.
So far, do you think that George W. Bush has
developed a clear plan for getting American
troops out of Iraq, or hasn't he developed one
yet?
CBS News/New York Times Conducted 2/24-2805
surveyed 1,111 adults margin of error /-3
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Americans see the Democratic party as the party
of equal opportunity and tolerance.
Values Americans Associate With The Democratic
Party
NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll December 9-13,
2004 1,003 adults
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Overall, voters associate the Democrats with
being for the middle class, equality, and caring
for people.
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The Republican party is seen as the party of
families, faith, and personal responsibility.
Positive Values Americans Associate With The
Republican Party
NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll December 9-13,
2004 1,003 adults
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Republicans are more closely associated with
knowing what they stand for, strength, and
protecting America against any threat.
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Presentation to the Santa Barbara Womens
Political Committee

• Celinda Lake
• Friday, March 18, 2005