Database for Energy Efficiency Resource Update Project Information and Final Results

1
Database for Energy Efficiency Resource
Update ProjectInformation and Final Results

• A DEER Presentation
• at CALMAC Meeting
• Pacific Energy Center, San Francisco
• September 21, 2005

2
DEER Update

• Introduction and History
• DEER
• Measure Cost Study
• Objectives and EE Regulatory/Policy Context
• Project Management Structure
• Program Advisory Committee
• Technical Committee
• Decision-making Processes and Orientation
• Challenges and Accomplishments

3
DEER UpdateProject Implementation Structure and
Consultant Team Roles

• Presenters
• Gary Cullen Itron
• Floyd Keneipp Summit Blue
• Measure Savings Team
• Itron, J. J. Hirsch Associates, Quantum Inc,
  Synergy
• Measure Cost Team
• Summit Blue Consulting, Heschong-Mahone Group

4
Project Advisory Team

• Shahana Samiullah, SCE (Project Manager)
• Ingrid Bran, PGE (MCS Project Manager)
• Tim Drew, Energy Division, CPUC
• Adriana Merlino, Energy Division, CPUC
• Christine Tam, ORA, CPUC
• Sylvia Bender, CEC
• Mike Messenger, CEC
• Andrew Sickels, SDGE (Project Manager 2002-03
  phase)
• Jennifer Barnes, PGE
• Leonel Campoy, SCE
• Craig Tyler, Tyler Associates (PGE
  representative 2002-03 phase)
• Jay Luboff (former ED representative 2002-03
  phase)
• Eli Kollman (former ED representative 2002-03
  phase)
• Others

5
Role of Project Advisory Team

• Provide feedback and direction to the initial
  work plan
• Provide unified and consistent advice and
  direction as issues appeared
• Review methodological methods and assumptions
• Review and provide comments on study results

6
Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles

• ITRON
• Gary Cullen (Project Manager), Bob Ramirez,
  Ulrike Mengelberg
• Coordinate the activities of the consultant and
  advisory teams
• Coordinate with the measure cost team
• Develop the non-weather sensitive residential and
  commercial sector measure savings
• Develop the agricultural sector measure savings
• Coordinate, consolidate, and format the measure
  savings, cost, and EUL data for uploading
• In consultation with Synergy, help design the web
  interface

7
Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles

• JJ Hirsch Assoc.
• Jeff Hirsch, Scott Criswell, Paul Reeves, Kevin
  Madison
• Develop the analysis software based on the DOE-2
  model for weather sensitive measures
• Suggest methodological directions and solutions
• Develop the building prototype and conservation
  measure characteristics
• Develop the weather sensitive residential and
  commercial sector measure savings
• Coordinate data transfer format with Itron and
  deliver data to Itron for uploading

8
Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles

• Quantum Consulting
• Mike Rufo
• Interview potential DEER users
• Create DEER Periodic Update Plan
• Identify linkages to EMV studies
• Identify new measures to potentially include in
  future DEER updates

9
Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles

• Synergy
• Christine Chin-Ryan
• Develop web interface
• Populate web interface with data
• Debug web interface

10
Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles

• Measure costs developed under separate contract
  by Summit Blue
• Measure cost team and roles will be discussed
  later

11
What is DEER?

• A collection of data for Residential and
  Non-Residential energy efficiency measures.
• It provides a common set of
• Ex ante Savings values kW, kWh, kBtu
• Measure Costs and
• Effective Measure Life (a.k.a EUL)

12
Previous DEER Database

• Savings estimates and cost estimates were never
  integrated
• Database on hard copy and soft copy
• Commercial measures savings had not been updated
  since 1994
• Residential measures savings more recently in
  2001
• No information on EULs

13
DEER Update

• First Phase of DEER Update began in 2003 and
  included
• Updating savings for non-weather sensitive
  measures
• Updating weather-sensitive models and the
  software Measure Analysis Software
• Creating a searchable, on-line database

14
DEER Update

• Second Phase of DEER began in 2004 and included
• Revised non weather sensitive lighting measures
  savings estimates
• Completed the Measure Analysis Software for
  weather sensitive analysis
• Developed a limited number of High Priority
  weather sensitive measure savings estimates
• Integrated measure cost into the database
• Partial release Milestone completed on March 2005
• Frozen to support June 1st EE filing

15
DEER Update

• Final DEER milestone
• Completed on-line DEER version 2.0 on August 31,
  2005
• Supercedes March 2005 DEER version 1.0
• Revised non-weather sensitive data
• Added new and updated weather sensitive measures
• Added Agricultural measures
• Integrated new effective useful life estimates
• Completed integration of cost data
• Updated the website with the new information

16
DEER Update

• Final Report Milestones
• Draft Final Report - Sept 30th for PAC
• Final Report - October 31st

17
DEER Update

• TOU Profiler Currently TBD
• Too many other issues other items with higher
  priority
• Definition of kW
• Calibration
• Unification of kW definition across all measures
  and end uses
• Agreed initially
• Create a Time of use Profiler
• Will utilize the DEER eQuest model
• The model will be available for download
• Preliminary estimate of amount of data
• More discussions needed

18
Measure Cost Study (MCS) Project Team

• Marshall Keneipp, Summit Blue Consulting (Project
  Manager)
• Floyd Keneipp, Summit Blue Consulting
• Joshua Radoff, Summit Blue Consulting
• Cathy Chappell, Heschong Mahone Group, Inc.
• Cynthia Austin, Heschong Mahone Group, Inc.

19
MCS Project Overview

• Undertaken to update measure cost estimates
  within DEER
• Previous update conducted in 2001
• Parallel completion schedule to DEER Update
• High priority measures complete in March 2005
• Full update completed in August 2005

20
Measure Cost Study (MCS) Project Scope of effort

• 814 separate costs were collected on 287 measure
  IDs
• Many measure IDs have one cost
• Some measure IDs have costs for multiple bins
  (i.e. capacities, purchase volumes, etc.). For
  example measure D03-410, residential condensing
  90 AFUE furnace, has 10 costs - one cost for each
  of 10 Btu capacities
• 625 separate base costs were collected
• Some measures were full cost only and did not
  require base cost estimates
• 574 measure labor cost were collected
• Some measures were incremental equipment costs
  only and did not require a labor cost estimate
• A total of over 12,100 individual cost
  observations were collected

21
Questions/Comments?
22
Development of DEER ProductsNon-Weather
Sensitive Energy Savings

• Presenter
• Gary Cullen Itron

23
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• CFL Lighting
• Refrigerators
• Clothes Washers Dryers
• Dishwashers
• Water Heating
• Swimming Pool Pumps

24
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• CFL Lighting Measure Impact (delta
  watts/unit hours/day days/year In Service
  Rate) / 1000 watts/kWh
• Demand Impact delta watts/unit
  In Service Rate Peak Hour Load Share
• The In Service Factor is an estimate
  of the percentage of lamps that are actually
  used. It is a rough estimate based on
  utility experience.
• Hours of Operation/Day and Peak
  Hour Load Share from KEMA CFL Metering
  Study

25
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• CFL Lighting Example (14W CFL replace 60W
  Inc) Measure Impact (46W 2.34
  hours/day 365 days/year 0.9) / 1000
  watts/kWh 35.4 kWh
• Demand Impact 46W 0.9 0.081
  3.35 W

26
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Refrigerators Used the Energy Star
  calculator available on-line at http//www.energ
  ystar.gov
• Key Input values for the
  calculator Refrigerator Type (top, side, or
  bottom mount freezer) Ice through the door (yes
  or no) Refrigerator fresh volume (cubic
  feet) Refrigerator freezer volume (cubic feet)

27
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Clothes Washers Utilized the three
  recommended Consortium for Energy Efficiency
  (CEE) Tiers for Modified Energy Factor
  Used the Energy Star calculator (that utilizes
  an EF rather than MEF) on-line at http//www.ene
  rgystar.gov Estimated the equivalent EF value
  for CEE MEF values from Energy Star list of
  approved washers Other key Energy Star
  variables include Number of wash cycles/year (E
  Star value is 392 cycles) Washer capacity (three
  sizes 1.5, 2.65, and 3.5 cubic feet)
  Further disaggregated impacts by water heat and
  clothes dryer fuel types Fuel impact
  disagreegations based on Efficiency Vermont
  estimates Demand impact based on a
  energy/peak factor of 0.417. This is
  carryover from previous 2001 DEER

28
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Clothes Washer Example (Tier 3 2.65 cu.ft)
  Measure Impact (cycles/year capacity /
  base EF) (cycles/year capacity /
  measure EF) (392 2.65 / 1.58) (392
  2.65 / 4.94) 447 kWh
• Demand Impact Measure Impact
  energy/peak factor 447 kWh 0.417
  186.4 W

29
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Clothes Dryer 1993 National Appliance
  Energy Conservation Act (NAECA) minimum
  efficiency used for base
  technology EF 3.01 for electric dryers EF
  2.67 for gas dryers Used DOE test
  procedure guidelines for Drying cycles per
  year 416 UEC of 2.33 kWh/cycle for electric
  (969 kWh/year) UEC of 8.95 kBtu/cycle for gas
  (37.2 therms/year) Assumed 416 cycles
  represented Single Family Assumed 250
  cycles for Multi-Family (CEC estimate of 60 less
  use by MF) Energy savings 5 of
  energy use. This is a carryover from previous
  2001 DEER Demand impact based on a
  energy/peak factor of 0.371. This is
  carryover from previous 2001 DEER

30
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Clothes Dryer Example (SF electric)
  Measure Impact Electric base use Savings
  Percentage 969 kWh 0.05 48
  kWh
• Demand Impact Measure Impact
  energy/peak factor 48 kWh 0.371
  17.8 W

31
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Dishwasher Used the Energy Star
  calculator available on-line at http//www.energ
  ystar.gov
• Key Input values for the
  calculator Base Energy Factor (EF)
  0.46 Measure Energy Factor 0.58 Annual wash
  cycle (DOE test procedure) 215 (assume SF) MF
  wash cycles (assumed to be 75 of SF) 160
• Demand impact based on a energy/peak
  factor of 0.371. This is carryover from
  previous 2001 DEER

32
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Water Heating Measures High efficiency
  water heater (electric EF0.93, gas
  EF0.63) Heat pump water heater (EF2.9) Point
  of use water heater low flow showerhead (from
  2.5 to 2.0 gallons per minute) Pipe wrap Faucet
  aerators
• Savings expressed as of base use
  Base use varied by utility service area
  (same method as 2001)
• Demand impact based on a energy/peak
  factor of 0.22. This is carryover from previous
  2001 DEER

33
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Water Heating Measure Saving High
  efficiency water heater electric - 5.4 High
  efficiency water heater gas - 5.0 Heat pump
  water heater 69.7 Point of use water heater
  15.0 low flow showerhead 4.0 Pipe wrap
  4.0 Faucet aerators 3.0

34
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures

• Pool Pumps Single speed and two speed
  included Relied on PGE and SCE
  engineers for calculating impacts
  General assumptions Average pool size of
  25,000 gallons Average water turnover rate of
  6-8 hours Average pump motor demand of 1.75
  kVA Typical filtration time of 4 to 6 hours
  For single speed motors, motor downsizing
  and runtime reductions assumed
  

35
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Interior Lighting
• Exterior Lighting
• Cooking
• Copy Machine
• Water Heating
• Vending Machine Controls
• High Efficiency Motors
• Agriculture

36
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Interior Lighting Measures CFL screw-in
  lamps CFL hardwire fixtures High intensity
  discharge (HID) lamps Premium T8 lamps Dimming
  Ballasts De-lamping fluorescent 4 ft and 8 ft
  fixtures

37
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Interior Lighting Basic Methodology
  Measure Impact (delta watts/unit hours/day
  days/year In Service Rate) / 1000 watts/kWh
• Demand Impact delta watts/unit
  In Service Rate Peak Hour Load Share

38
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Exterior Lighting Exit Signs High
  intensity discharge (HID) lamps Exit
  Signs Timeclocks Photocells

39
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Exterior Lighting Exit Signs
  Methodology HID lamps delta watts saved hours
  of use (4,100 hours) no peak impacts Exit
  Signs delta watts saved 8760 hours
  Interactive Effects peak delta watts
  Interactive effects 1.0 (coincidence
  factor) Timeclocks Photocells watts
  controlled hours of control no peak impacts

40
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Cooking High efficiency fryers (gas
  electric) High efficiency griddle (gas) Hot
  food holding cabinet Connectionless steamer

41
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
Cooking - Methodology Relied primarily on
the PGE technology briefs For each of these
measures, the energy savings calculation methodol
ogy is of the form Savings (APECRBase
APECREfficient) Daily Hours
Days Where APECR The Average Production
Energy Consumption Rate/hour Daily Hours
12 Days 365
42
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Copy Machines three sizes 0-20
  copies/minute 21-44 copies/minute over 45
  copies/minute Methodology assumptions from
  Energy Star calculator

43
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Vending Machine Controls Characterized in
  two measures by being installed in Cold drink
  vending machines Uncooled snack vending
  machines Measure savings and characterization
  from the Pacific Northwest Regional Technical
  Forum database Methodology assumes operated
  during off-peak hours, therefore no demand
  savings

44
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Water Heating Savings expressed as of
  base use Base use varies by building
  type. Come from the 1994 DEER study
  Measures High efficiency gas water heater (7.1
  savings) Point of use water heater (10
  savings) Water circulation pump time clock (6
  savings)

45
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• High Efficiency Motors Meet premium
  efficiency standards established by the
  Consortium for Energy Efficiency
  (CEE) Base efficiency meets Energy
  Policy Act (EPACT) minimum Motor
  sizes range from 1 HP to 200 HP Motor
  hours of operation vary by industry sector
  Motor loading from US DOE Motor Master
  software Peak demand based on a
  coincidence factor of 0.75

46
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• High Efficiency Motors - Calculation
  Energy savings (kWh) (Motor HP / EPACT motor
  efficiency) kW/HP hours of operation
  motor loading (motor HP / premium motor
  efficiency) kW/HP hours of operation
  motor loading
• Peak (kW) (motor HP kW/HP
  coincidence factor / EPACT motor efficiency) -
  (motor HP kW/HP coincidence factor / premium
  motor efficiency)

47
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Agricultural Measures Low pressure
  irrigation sprinkler nozzle Sprinkler
  irrigation to micro irrigation conversion
  Infrared film for greenhouses
  Greenhouse heat curtain Variable
  frequency drive for dairy pumps
  Ventilation fans or box fans High
  volume, low speed fans

48
Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures

• Agricultural Measures Methodology taken
  from Express Agricultural Working Papers
  Irrigation savings varied by crop type

49
Questions/Comments?
50
Development of DEER Products Weather Sensitive
Energy Savings

• Presenter
• Jeff Hirsch JJ Hirsch Associates

51
Weather Sensitive MeasuresOverview

1. Methods Used
2. Sources of Information
3. Calibration
4. Simulation Cases
5. Results Available

52
Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used

• Using up-to-date DOE-2/eQUEST for simulation
• Improving engineering accuracy of prototypes
• Explicit simulations replace previous
  simplifications
• 16 Title 24 climate zones not CEC planning zones
• Complete analysis tool published

53
Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used

• Using up-to-date DOE-2/eQUEST for simulation
• Hourly simulation of all elements
• Includes details of configurations
• Allows easy review and update
• Well understood and open tool

54
Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used

• Improving engineering accuracy of prototypes
• More complete activity area definitions
• More complete HVAC definitions
• Coordination with IOU program methods
• eQUEST wizard definitions for flexibility

55
Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used

• Explicit simulations replace previous
  simplifications
• Residential
• evap cooler, whole house fan, SEER perf.,
  PStat,
• Non- Residential
• refrigeration systems, HVAC loops/ducts
  w/losses,

56
Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used

• 16 Title 24 climate zones not CEC planning zones
• Sizing
• Peak load based on design day for each zone
• Peak demand
• Super critical peak days chosen for each zone

57
Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used

• Complete analysis tool published
• Allows examination of assumptions
  (prototypes/measures)
• Eases updating (EMV, research, new
  codes/standards)

58
Weather Sensitive MeasuresSources of Information

• Previous DEER studies
• Potential Studies
• RASS/CUES surveys
• EMV studies
• Published research
• Laboratory and field test work

59
Weather Sensitive MeasuresCalibration

• Residential
• RASS used to update previous studies
• Non-residential
• Adjustments both at activity area and whole
  building level
• CEUS and EMV

60
Weather Sensitive MeasuresSimulation cases

• Base case
• Vintage typical base on survey data
• Code base Case
• Minimally compliant or standard practice
• Measure Case
• Most common program tier's

61
Weather Sensitive MeasuresResults Available

• Customer Savings
• energy and demand
• Above Code Savings
• Energy and demand
• Baselines and Normalizations
• Baseline and enduse
• Common units allow scaling

62
Questions/Comments?
63
DEER UpdateMeasure Cost Study

• Presenter
• Floyd Keneipp Summit Blue Consulting

64
Defining Cost ParametersMeasure Cost
Specifications

• Measure lists provided by Itron
• Developed cost specifications for each measure
• Includes more delineation in terms of sizes,
  efficiencies and features
• Measure cost specifications reflect product
  availability and common installation practices
• Measure cost team included best judgment
  regarding size and efficiency breakdowns and
  bracketing of energy analysis specs

65
Defining Cost ParametersMeasure Cost
Specifications (Cont.)

• Measure costs specifications encompass the sizes
  and technical specs of measures used in the
  energy analysis, but reflect availability of
  products on the market
• Consistent with and indexed to Itron measure
  specs, but some specifications require a range of
  values to allow for adequate sample
• Cost team discerned between a wide range of
  product options and narrowing pricing to
  representative products options
• Example A 90 AFUE single stage furnace was
  priced but a 90 AFUE furnace with a variable
  speed fan was not because the costs are very
  different

66
Defining Cost ParametersMeasure Cost
Specifications (Cont.)

• Cost data is first cost only -- life cycle or OM
  costs/cost savings not included
• Pricing reflects commonly available standard
  products and excludes specialty, high-end items
• Some price observations (outliers) were excluded
  to assume a rational purchasing policy would be
  used (who would pay THAT?)
• Equipment and labor prices are specific to
  California to extent possible but average across
  state

67
Defining Cost Parameters Key Cost Definitions

• Cost Observation a single price point for an
  individual measure or measure configuration
• Cost values are what a program participant would
  pay to implement the measure consistent with
  definitions in the CA Standard Practice Manual
  (initial capital cost)
• Cost units ( / ton, / HP, / square foot,
  etc.)
• Mostly the same although different for some
  measures
• Distinct field in detailed cost data appended to
  Cost Basis designator in measure detail

68
Defining Cost Parameters Key Cost Definitions
(cont.)

• Application indicates if the cost is for
• Retrofit (RET) - replacing a working system with
  a new technology or installing a technology that
  was not there before.
• Replace-on-burnout (ROB) - replacing a technology
  at the end of its useful life.
• New construction or major renovation (NEW) -
  installing a technology in a new construction or
  major renovation project.
• Cost Basis indicates if the cost is
• Incremental (INCR) - the differential cost
  between a base technology and an energy efficient
  technology.
• Installed (FULL) - the full or installed cost of
  the measure including equipment, labor, overhead
  profit (OHP).

69
Data Collection and Analysis ProcessOverview

• Created and implemented systematic data
  collection processes and instruments
• Clarified measure lists and specifications
  through series of communications with Itron and
  members of Advisory Group
• Used 4 analytic methods in determining costs
• Labor cost estimates generally base on the
  following equation
• Manhours x Appropriate wage rate
• Used multiple data sources to collect cost data
• Organized data in Cost Analysis Workbooks

70
Data Collection and Analysis ProcessAnalytic
Methods

• Simple average Average of all cost observations
  discarding outliers in some cases where a
  particular observation appeared out of line
• Weighted average Uses one or more observed
  market variables to weight raw cost data
• Regression cost model Regression models using
  relevant performance factors as independent
  variables
• Custom cost estimates Typical of engineered
  and/or technically complex types of measure where
  a unique equipment or system configuration needed
  to be defined and a cost estimate built up for
  the specific technical details of the measure

71
Data Collection and Analysis ProcessLabor Cost
Estimates

• Labor cost estimates generally base on manhours
  required to complete task times appropriate wage
  rate
• Wage rate based on trade (electrician, plumber,
  etc.) and geographic location of activity
• RS Means used to provide wage rate and location
  adjustment multipliers

72
Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost Data
Sources

1. Website and on-site cost surveys of retailers
2. Cost quotes from manufacturers, manufacturers
   sales representatives, and distributors
3. Cost surveys of contractors and design
   professionals.
4. Cost data from in California DSM program files,
   particularly local programs
5. Secondary sources and reports

73
Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks

• Excel based cost analysis workbook developed for
  each measure.
• Each workbook has 5 sections

74
Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks Raw Data

• Example of the Raw Data section of the High
  Efficiency Electric Clothes Dryer workbook

75
Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks Cost Results

• Example of the Results section of the High
  Efficiency Electric Clothes Dryer workbook

76
Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks Statistical Summary

• Example of the Statistical Summary section of
  the High Efficiency Electric Clothes Dryer
  workbook

77
Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005

• The scope of some measures has been expanded
• CFL size categories expanded
• More evaporative cooler options
• Windows expanded to include non-res. high
  performance glazing
• Several measures eliminated or reduced in scope
• Most T8 systems eliminated with the exception of
  premium efficiency and dimming T8 ballasts
• Eliminated coin-operated high efficiency clothes
  washers and hot water heater tank wrap

78
Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005

• New measures and measure categories have been
  added
• Vending machine occupancy sensor controls
• High-efficiency office copiers
• High-efficiency commercial cooking equipment
• Premium-efficiency motors
• Heat pump water heaters, point-of-use water
  heaters, water circulation pump timeclocks
• Swimming pool pumps
• Room AC and PTAC broken out as distinct measures
• Types and sizes of some applications has been
  expanded

79
Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005
2005 Cost Spec

• High-Efficiency Refrigerators Example

Capacity (cubic feet) Type
15.5 Top Side Bottom
20 Top Side Bottom
23 Top Side Bottom
25 Top Side Bottom
30 Top Side Bottom
2001 Cost Spec
Energy Analysis Spec
Capacity (cubic feet) Type
15 Top Side
20 Top Side
25 Top Side
30 Top Side
Capacity (cubic feet) Type
15.5 Top Side Bottom
23 Top Side Bottom
80
Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005

• Examples of cost adjustments
• Average CFL prices decreasing
• Installed (full) cost of furnaces up by factor of
  2 equipment up about 30 installation cost
  estimate up by factor of 4
• Energy Star refrigerator prices down over 30 on
  average

81
Changes in Cost Data Some Examples CFLs

• Market trends changes CFLs
• Changes in the manufacturing base -- increase in
  scale of imports resulting in lower cost products
• Increasing product availability -- only 10 of
  CFLs purchased in 2002 were from big 3 mfrs
  (Philips, Osram, GE) with smaller mfrs getting
  shelf placement with lower prices
• Changes in distribution -- web sales increasing,
  B2C sales increased from 59B in 2000 to 428B in
  2004
• Prices trending down
• NWEEA estimates avg. price down from 14-28 in
  1997 to 5-10 in 2002
• Compared to 2001 DEER, average CFL prices for low
  volume purchases down by 29 high volume down by
  48

82
Changes in Cost Data Some Examples CFL

• Retail price spread for integral CFL lamps

83
Cost Data Collection and Analysis Process

• Cost data available in four formats
• Cost data included in measure details from
  website for each run ID
• More detailed Cost Data file available under
  Supporting Documents as a downloadable file
• Organized by measure category
• More details and measure variations
• Cost Analysis Workbooks most detailed
• In hard copy in the final project report

84
Cost Data Defining Cost Parameters

• How to find the most applicable cost information?
• Measure detail pages for each run ID - the per
  unit equipment measure cost of 13.65 for all 90
  residential furnaces
• This provides an average cost based on a 100,000
  Btu furnace
• The Cost Data file under Supporting Documents
  provides prices on a range of furnace sizes
• This provides a range of costs for 90 AFUE
  furnaces from 60,000 Btu to 140,000 Btu. Per
  unit costs (/KBtu) ranges from 21.53 to 12.13,
  respectively
• The cost workbook section Can use either
  statistical summary or individual price
  observations
• For example, the per unit equipment measure cost
  for 90 AFUE 100,000 furnaces ranges from to
  12.31 to 16.52 based on 9 observations

85
Integration of Costs and Savings Data

• Itron developed a consolidated list of all
  measures
• Common units were identified and where possible,
  made consistent between energy impacts and cost
• Summit Blue developed point estimates for each
  measure in the consolidated list and populated
  the Consolidated Measure spreadsheet
• Itron utilized this Consolidated Measure
  spreadsheet as a series of look-up tables for
  populating DEER

86
Questions/Comments?
87
Guide to DEER and Some ResultsWebsite and Test
Drive

• Presenters
• Gary Cullen Itron
• Jeff Hirsch JJ Hirsch Associates
• Floyd Keneipp Summit Blue

88
Website Considerations

• Two Levels of Savings
• Customer savings - for system savings and early
  replacement savings.
• Above Code Savings - for all measures affected
  by an energy code or standard (reportable savings
  for replace on burnout.)
• Common Units
• The energy and cost common units are distinct
• Over 90 of cases, they are the same
• When different, distinctly identified

89
Website Considerations

• Application indicates if the cost is for
• Retrofit (RET) - replacing a working system with
  a new technology or adding a technology.
• Replace-on-burnout (ROB) - replacing a technology
  at the end of its useful life
• New construction or major renovation (NEW) -
  installing a technology in a new construction or
  major renovation
• Cost Basis indicates if the cost is
• Incremental (INCR) - the differential cost
  between a base technology and an energy efficient
  technology
• Installed (FULL) - the full or installed cost of
  the measure including equipment, labor, overhead
  profit (OHP)

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Website Navigation Opening Screen
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Website Navigation Browse Measures
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Website Navigation Select Subcategory
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Website Navigation Review Summary Page - Top
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Website Navigation Summary Page Information

• Area 1 - Summary Identification of 13 variables
• Area 2 Further Filtering Options
• Climate Zone, Building Type, Vintage, Savings
  Unit
• Area 3 Sorting Order
• Area 4 Download Measure Detain in Excel
• There are Excel spreadsheet limitations

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Website Navigation Review Summary Page - Bottom
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Website Navigation Summary Page Information

• At bottom is listing of how many measures are
  included in this summary
• A large number would indicate a need for further
  filtering in order to do the download

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Website Navigation Detailed Measure Information
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Website Navigation Detailed Measure information
- Top
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Website Navigation Detailed Measure information
- Bottom
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Supporting Documents Section

• Website Users Guide
• Net-to-Gross Ratios Table
• Access Tables
• Glossary
• Cost Data
• Cost Data Users Guide
• New EUL Estimates 7-14-05 (SERA Report)
• Consolidated Measure Data

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Supporting Documents Section Consolidated
Measure Data
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Questions/Comments?
103
DEER UPDATE PLAN

• Presenter
• Mike Rufo, Quantum Inc.
• Measure Savings Team
• Itron, J. J. Hirsch Associates, Quantum Inc,
  Synergy
• Measure Cost Team
• Summit Blue Consulting, Heschong-Mahone Group

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Planning for DEER Updates and Linkages to EMV

• Objectives
• ID and discuss DEER-related Issues
• ID and discuss DEER-related EMV needs
• Recommendations for future DEER updates
• Recommendations for improved EMV-DEER linkages
• Approach
• Interviews with Joint Staff, IOUs, others
• Review of EMV studies and plans
• Lessons learned from current and past studies
• Deliverables
• Report/chapter on issues and recommendations
• Prioritized list of detailed measurement needs

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Key Update Issues

• Guidelines/Requirements for DEER Use
• DEER Update Process
• Energy Savings Methods and Sources
• Baseline Calibration and Load Shapes
• Segmentation and Averaging
• Costing Issues
• Types of Data to Include
• Measure Coverage and Allocation of Resources
• Measure-specific and EMV Linkage Issues
• Documentation

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DEER Update Process

• Most suggest DEER be preferred (default) source
  of program planning data, some JS prefer
  mandatory
• Deviations permitted if data not available in
  DEER
• If data in DEER, demonstrate why alternate data
  superior
• If not in DEER, increased regulatory review,
  higher likelihood of ex post measurement of
  savings
• Comprehensively updated at least every three
  years
• Process put in place to allow updates to specific
  values to occur more often (every year or half
  year) Start Jan. 06
• Next comprehensive update should be completed by
  end of 07
• Update based on availability of superior
  information
• Strive for expected value orientation
• Neither conservative nor optimistic
• But lean conservative in face of great
  uncertainty and risk
• Involve diverse group of experts

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Savings Methods and Calibration

• Three primary methods
• Engineering calcs, building simulations,
  eval/field/lab data
• All methods should be calibrated
• Calibration has several elements
• General baseline (e.g., EUIs/UECs, EFLH)
• Specific baseline (e.g., duct leakage, thermostat
  behavior)
• Savings (e.g., evaluation results)
• Load shapes (not a primary focus of current DEER)
• Key sources
• RASS, CEUS, tracking and billing data,
  eval/field/lab data
• Tradeoffs among accuracy, simplicity,
  transparency

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Segmentation and Averaging

• General/default approach - reflect market average
• Extensive segmentation for weather sensitive
• Btype, vintage, CZ 1,680 combos
• Program managers desire data for sub-segments
• Less efficient portion of pop
• Groups with specific characteristics
• Inclusion of sub-segment data should be
  considered
• But with caution, can backfire (e.g., t-stats in
  01 DEER)
• PMs must have plausible approach to targeting
• For both segments and sub-segments
• Need to include market weights
• Default average results across segments

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Costing Issues

• Clearer measure specs and better/earlier
  integration w. savings task
• Systematize the pricing process to extent
  possible
• Index certain costing elements to industry
  recognized pricing methods and resources
• Conduct more frequent, targeted and less
  expansive updates
• Integrate cost data collection and reporting into
  program delivery (and evaluation) if possible
• Increase importance and resources for cost
  analysis
• Historically, costs are step-child to savings
• As important to TRC B-C ratio as savings

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Types of Data to Include

• Interviewees asked which of following to include
• energy savings, peak savings, load shape, cost,
  effective useful life (EUL), net to gross ratio
  (NTGR), penetration and saturation information,
  potential study results
• Most responded that all of above should be
  included, several said with exception of NTGRs
• Additional elements suggested included carbon,
  total source BTU, and water impacts
• We recommend including, at a minimum
• Energy peak savings, load shapes (could be
  reduced form), costs, EULs, market weights tied
  to segments
• NTGR incorporation needs more consideration

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Measure Coverage and Allocation of Resources

• DEER has never included all measures
• Focus on prescriptive-type measures
• Focus on prototypical measures
• Scope/resource tradeoffs
• Limited criteria-based allocation of resources
• Small impact measures sometimes absorb
  disproportionate resources
• Future efforts should prioritize based on
• Contribution to program areas and portfolio,
  potential
• Cost-effectiveness and associated uncertainty
• List of measures to add compiled
• More effort needed on custom (EMV and DEER)

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Measure-specific and EMV Linkage Issues

• Many difficult measure issues
• Lack of appropriate and reliable evaluation data
• List developed of measure-specific evaluation
  needs
• Need evaluations to produce measure-, segment-,
  and parameter-level results
• (Pre-98 impact evals focused on program
  realization rates)
• Importance of pre-measurement
• Some issues beg for controlled experiments
• Integration between DEER and Protocols teams
• DEER team need for direct access to eval data

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Measure-Level Issues
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Documentation

• Strong desire for highly detailed documentation
• Parameters, assumptions, and sources
• Electronically-linked documentation also desired
• Explanations of database fields
• Appropriate warnings or caveats
• Quality of documentation tied to decision to use
• Given DEERs importance, level of documentation
  needed greater than for many other projects
• Adequate resources must be allocated
• Documentation must be timely
• Database preferred to website views due to volume
  of data and need for analysis

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Questions/Comments?