Dublins Infrastructure Investment Requirement 2020

1
Dublins Infrastructure Investment Requirement
2020

• Peter Brennan, Managing Director
• AL Goodbody Consulting
• Thursday, 10th November 2005

2
Introduction

• Report identified a 140 bn infrastructure
  investment requirement (to 2020)
• Share for Greater Dublin Region at least 50 of
  total
• For first time facts and figures in a single
  comprehensive report
• Timely, as work on next NDP gets underway
• Strategic, as time horizon to 2020 used
• Puts Transport 21 in contextEconomic Context

3
Context

• Competitiveness of Irish economy
• Record levels of investment 5 of GNP
• Five-year Capital Budget Envelopes
• Demographics 5.1 million by 2021 (Dublin pop.
  will be 1.6 million)
• Economy could double in size by 2020
• Sound Exchequer position
• Strict Value for Money rules in place
• Long timescale to get projects procured and
  commissioned

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Headline Requirement

• Roads 15.5 bn
• Aviation 1.5 bn
• Public Transport 25 bn
• Education 15 bn
• Health 10.4 bn
• Property 40.5 bn
• Energy 5 bn
• Environment 27 bn
• TOTAL 140 bn

5
Financing Infrastructure

• Most Member States have invested heavily in
  infrastructure for decades
• Government has option to borrow
• 5 GNP limit should be reviewed (will be for
  Transport 21 Plan)
• Investment opportunities for NPFR
• Private finance has a significant role to play
  PPPs have been delivered on time and on budget
• New VfM tests in place

6
Roads

• NRA performing well 1.4bn budget (2005)
• PPP projects on budget and on time. New PPP
  projects identified
• 10 bn required to complete Roads Programme (to
  2010)
• Cost of road congestion in Dublin 2.5 bn p.a.
• Not clear from Transport 21 what new projects in
  pipeline (850 kms ?). No priorities set.
• 2 bn in tolls will fund programme
• Dublin Eastern By-pass shelved
• Study on Dublin Ring Orbital ready by mid-2006
• M50 widening/ M50-M1 interchange
• Port Tunnel opening delayed
• Docklands needs traffic management solution

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Roads
8
Public Transport

• Delivery of Transport 21 the issue
• Project Management Team reporting to Minister
  should drive implementation
• No procurement dates hence no interest from
  market
• Transport 21 not costed
• North and West Metros cba justify the decision?
• Seven LUAS lines set priorities
• GDR electrification not as ambitious as Irish
  Rails original plan
• Why two lines from Green to OConnell Street
• Disruption in Dublin City Centre for many years
  dialogue with Dublin Chambers essential
• Competition in bus and rail sectors?

9
Public Transport
10
Education

• Ireland scores highly on quality
• But under-invests at all levels
• Lisbon Strategy (we are 11th of EU-15)
• Demographics will drive decisions 31 increase
  in school population by 2020
• Strategic choice borrow to upgrade and build
  pre-primary and new schools?
• Front load investment as project pipeline exists
• DITs Grangegorman Development a Flagship
  project

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Healthcare

• Expenditure highest in EU mainly current
  spending
• Demographics will drive decisions ageing
  population and additional 1.3 million
• Private investment in healthcare 1bn potential
• Availability of consultants a potential
  bottleneck
• 6 bn to delivery projects in National Health
  Strategy
• Upwards of 4.4bn to increase bed capacity
• HSE should determine optimum requirement by 2020
  and then assess number and skill mix of medical
  staff required
• What are capital healthcare requirements for
  Dublin Region?

12
Energy

• Consumption estimated to rise by 48 by 2020, yet
  no estimate of investment requirement apart from
  renewables
• North-South dimension
• Adequate gas transmission capacity
• At least 2 new power plants needed
• Energy Policy Paper will determine energy
  investment requirement
• Compliance with Emissions Trading System a major
  issue what extra capacity required to meet
  public transport needs?

13
Ports and Aviation

• Dublin Port needs decisions
• Airport Investment linked to future of Aer Lingus
• Dublin Airport needs
• Second and third terminals
• Pier D
• New Runway
• Metro and access transport
• Pier E

14
Environment

• Compliance with standards set by EU Directives
  driving investment
• Greater Dublin Strategic Drainage Study (2031)
  2.6 bn needed
• Significant under-investment in waste
  infrastructure
• Current level of capital investment high (9 bn
  over 4 years) and set to continue
• NSS will drive investment decisions scale and
  location
• Business will pay for new services

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Critical Success Factors

• Infrastructure as an asset invest when you can
  afford to
• Affordability less of an issue
• Strategic planning on all-island basis
• Institutional arrangements NDFA and Transport
  Executive
• Time frame for NDP (2007-2013)
• Carbon constraints
• National Spatial Plan
• Resource the public sector not mentioned at all
  in Transport 21

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Key Messages

• Stakes are high so bold decisions needed as
  infrastructure critical for competitiveness
• Decisions should reflect social/quality of life
  issues
• Deliver ahead of demand front load some
  investments e.g. education win win scenario
• Affordability now a secondary issue we should be
  investing to succeed as an economy
• Talking about an additional 2bn per annum
• Ask Agencies to scope out their requirements to
  2020 in context of next NDP
• National champion needed National Infrastructure
  Board?
• Ireland will not achieve its true potential if
  decisions on key infrastructure projects delayed

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Finally

• QUESTIONS
• AND
• ANSWERS