Hurricanes

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Hurricanes
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Hurricanes
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Katrina

• 1833 deaths
• 125 billion in damage

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Their Origin
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Hurricane Prediction A Mixed Report

• During the past thirty years there has been
  substantial in improvement is hurricane track
  forecasts as computer models improved and more
  data became available to describe their
  environment.
• Over the same period only minimal improvement is
  hurricane intensity forecasts.

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Substantial Promise

• The use of higher resolution prediction and
  better data around and in hurricanes should
  result in better intensity predictions.

15-km grid spacing
1.67 km grid spacing
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Katrina 48-h Before Virtually a Perfect
Forecast of Track
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Katrina

• But the intensity was not well forecast until the
  day before.
• Fridays intensity prediction (storm hit Monday
  AM)

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT
FRI AUG 26 2005 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.1N 82.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 75 KT 24HR
VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 80 KT 36HR VT
28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 85 KT 48HR VT
28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 90 KT 72HR VT
29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 100 KT 96HR VT
30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT
31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
INLAND
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• URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
• NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
• 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
• ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
• .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE
  WITH UNPRECEDENTED
• STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE
  CAMILLE OF 1969.
• MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR
  WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
• LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL
  HAVE ROOF AND WALL
• FAILURE. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS
  WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
• PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS
  EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
• FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE
  DESTROYED. CONCRETE
• BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR
  DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
• WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
• HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL
  SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
• FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS
  WILL BLOW OUT.
• AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY
  INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
• AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES.
  SPORT UTILITY
• VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE
  BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

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Extratropical Transition
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