The War on Terror and Islamic Insurgency in Southeast Asia

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The War on Terror and Islamic Insurgency in
Southeast Asia

• December 1, 2005

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Study Questions

• Why did SE Asia become the second front on the
  War on Terror?
• How do the War on Terror and the rise of radical
  Islam affect SE Asia?
• Can ASEAN cooperate to fight terrorism?
• What are the obstacles to fight terrorism in SE
  Asia?
• How do the War on Terror and Islamic insurgency
  affect international relations in the region?

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Why did SE Asia become the second front on the
War on Terror?

• Islam is the main religion in several SE Asian
  countries. Other countries also have substantial
  Muslim population.
• Numerous groups that may resort to violence
  (secessionist, rebel, tugs, religious groups)
• Economic difficulty esp. after the financial
  crisis ? more people go to mosques
• Spread of intl terrorism
• Bali bombing (10/02)the worst attack after 9/11
  (followed by bombs at Marriott Hotel, Australian
  Embassy and the 2nd Bali bomb (10/05)

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How does intl terrorism negatively affect SE
Asia?

• Linkage w/ local groups
• Social impacts disruptive society, ethnic
  violence
• Economic impacts losses of tourism income and
  foreign investment
• Political impacts regime instability

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Comparing the Cold War and the War on Terror

• The Cold War
• Theater for great power conflict
• Threat Communist states and clandestine
  communists
• Goal Communist Indochina
• U.S.

• The War on Terror
• Theater for civilization conflict
• Threat terrorist networks, JI
• Goal Islamic Caliphate
• U.S.

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How do the War on Terror and the rise of radical
Islam affect SE Asia?

• U.S. War on Terrorperceived as unilateralism,
  unclear objectives (e.g. in Iraq), disregard of
  human rights, war against Islam
• The War on Terror is a threat as well escalating
  and spreading terrorism.
• Self-fulfilling prophecy
• Creating anti-American sentiment and the
  condition favorable to terrorists
• (persuading more people to join jihad)
• Increasing insurgency in the region

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Insurgency Indonesia

• Free Aceh Movement (GAM)saved by Tsunami
• Laskar Jihad
• Jemah Islamiyah (JI), leader-Bashir
• Ethnic violence in Maluku and Sulawesi
• Bombings, most recent in Bali again (10/05)

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Insurgency Philippines

• Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)
• 1973-96, peace settlement by the establishment
  of Autonomous Region Muslim Mindanao (ARMM)
• Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), 12,500
  people
• Abu Sayaff Group (ASG)
• Links to JI

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Insurgency Thailand

• PULO and BRN (1960s-80s)Pattani separatism
  during the period of communist insurgency
• Subsided during 1990s
• Reemerged strongly since 2004
• Why? Thailand participates in the War on Terror.

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Can ASEAN cooperate to fight terrorism?

• No unified stance on US military action (esp. in
  Afghanistan and Iraq)
• The primacy of domestic concern
• Distrust of Muslim neighbors
• Transnational problem vs. non-interference
• No cross-national operation

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What are the obstacles to fight terrorism in SE
Asia?

• Fluid organization of Al-Qaida
• Weak ASEAN organization
• Short-term domestic political interest
• Human rights violation
• U.S. presence

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How do the War on Terror and Islamic insurgency
affect international relations in the region?

• By and large, improved relations with the U.S.
• Some rifts among ASEAN members over the U.S.
• Distrust of Muslim neighbors