Docket 7081 Transmission Planning Information Workshops Third Workshop September 30, 2005

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Docket 7081Transmission Planning Information
WorkshopsThird WorkshopSeptember 30, 2005

• Shaping Demand-Side Resources
• To Address Transmission Constraints
• John Plunkett
• Optimal Energy, Inc.

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Shaping Demand-Side ResourcesTo Address
Transmission Constraints

• Determining desired shape of DSM resources to
  address transmission constraints
• Shape of reliability solutions needed for
  Southern Loop
• Developing and integrating demand-side options
  into Southern Loop transmission planning

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1. Determining Desired Shape of DSM Resources

• Seasonal timing of additional capacity
  requirements
• Future timing of capacity requirements
• Hourly duration of capacity requirements

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Determining Desired Shape of DSM Resources
(Continued)

• Seasonal timing of additional capacity
  requirements
• Summer and/or winter peaking?
• NRP disregarded all space-heat fuel-switching
• Southern Loop peak driven by ski area
  development, so cooling savings irrelevant.

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Determining Desired Shape of DSM Resources
(Continued)

• Future timing of capacity requirements
• DSM savings take time to build momentum and
  accumulate.
• A consistent advance planning horizon is needed
  to effectively integrate DSM into transmission
  planning (3-10 years).

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Determining Desired Shape of DSM Resources
(Continued)

• Hourly duration of capacity requirements
• The longer the hourly duration of constraint, the
  more kWh per kW of peak reduction needed
• Efficiency is often superior to load control,
  curtailment, or shifting because efficiency kWh
  follow hourly load curve before and after the
  system reaches peak kW loading

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2. Reliability needs of the Southern Loop

• Load growth driven by ski areas and surrounding
  communities from southwestern to southeastern
  Vermont
• Steady load growth due to ski area expansion
  since 1980s
• Winter peaking, despite shift to statewide summer
  peak late 1990s
• CVPS steadily reduced load growth with DSM
  programs throughout 1990s
• Past emphasis has been on space-heating and
  water-heating fuel-switching from electricity,
  high-efficiency snowmaking equipment,
  interruptible contracts
• Efficiency Vermont continued efficiency
  investment 2000-present
• Reliability solutions needed imminently at
  current loads
• Over time, reliability needs intensify under
  continued load growth

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3. Developing and Integrating Demand-Side
Options into Southern Loop Transmission Planning

• As part of Southern Loop collaborative, CVPS used
  the DUP scoping tool to assess potential for DSM
  to defer need for TD upgrades
• Preliminary findings indicated that additional
  DSM
• could not defer immediate problems
• Could defer need for subsequent TD investment to
  meet reliability needs in future

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Developing and integrating potential demand-side
TD capacity options for the Southern Loop
(continued)

• VELCO and CVPS engaged Optimal to assist in
  detailed analysis of potential efficiency and
  renewable options for the Southern Loop
• Scope of alternatives to be examined includes
  efficiency, cogeneration, and photovoltaic

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Developing and integrating potential demand-side
TD capacity options for the Southern Loop
(continued)

• Progress to date
• Updated scoping tool analysis to incorporate
  changes in available technologies (e.g.,
  super-T8s, T-5s)
• More detailed cost-effectiveness analysis using
  program cost-effectiveness analysis tool and more
  detailed market and technology characterizations
• Analyzed EVT experience in Southern Loop to
  refine assessment of remaining potential

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Developing and integrating potential demand-side
TD capacity options for the Southern Loop
(continued)

• Next steps
• Work with CVPS and VELCO to determine where in
  region demand reductions would have most impact
  on relieving reliability needs (e.g., Manchester)
• Work with EVT project managers to determine which
  efficiency measures and which customers would
  provide additional cost-effective savings
• Perform detailed site visits to a sample of
  customers to further refine estimates of
  achievable potential costs and savings
• Develop draft RFP specifications soliciting
  demand-side solutions
• Possible that VELCO/CVPS could apply to PSB for
  combined approval for
• Initial wires solution to address immediate
  reliability need
• Expenditures for targeted DSM initiatives to
  defer need for subsequent TD investments