APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 22 Feb 2011

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Technical Analysis22 FEB 2011
Market commentary

• APF Trading

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APF Trading

• 9 Battery Road
• 12F Straits Trading Building
• Singapore 049910  
•  
• Jay Ng
• jay.ng_at_apftrading.com
•  
• Glenn Ho
• glenn.ho_at_apftrading.com
•  
• Website
• www.apftrading.com
• www.asiapacfinance.com

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STOCK EXCHANGE OF THAILAND INDEX
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STOCK EXCHANGE OF THAILAND INDEX

• Index top was formed with the completion of TD
  Sequential Sell Countdown. TD Risk level at
  1114.6201 was not tested and the index slide
  downwards slightly to break the Tenkan Sen and
  converged with the Kijun Sen.
• Index closed below the Kijun Sen 2 weeks ago and
  the bulls put up a strong fight ending above the
  Kijun once again last week.
• The Kumo would provide good support. Also notice
  that the Kijun Sen, Senkou A and Senkou B all
  angle upwards.
• Looking at the current picture we expect the
  rally to be intact.
• However we are cautious of the scenario when the
  Chikou Span breaks below prices and the Tenkan
  Sen crosses below the Kijun Sen.

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JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX
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JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

• The last time the index touched Kijun Sen was in
  June 2010.
• Within the next month, if the index does not
  rally beyond the close 26 weeks ago, the bull
  trend would be weaken with the Chikou below
  prices.
• The TD Sequential Risk Level at 3880.8699 serves
  as the near term resistance. The 23.6 Fibo
  Retracement level at 3153.932 serves as the near
  term support after the Kijun Sen.
• The Kumo support is strong. We expect prices to
  hover above the Kumo

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Bursa Malaysia
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Bursa Malaysia

• Stock indices of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia
  all show similar price developments. The interim
  top was also formed with the completion of the TD
  Sequential Sell Countdown. Risk level at 1634.99
  was not tested and the index slide off.
• The Kumo would provide strong support. Index has
  converged back to the Kijun Sen in a healthy
  correction move.
• We expect the correction to find support at the
  Kijun Sen and then the Senkou A.

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GOLD SPOT
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GOLD SPOT

• A clear bull trend with the Chikou above prices,
  Tenkan Sen above Kijun Sen, upward trending think
  Kumo and prices above the Kijun Sen
• A classic rubber band effect which we always talk
  about happened 1 month ago which pulls prices to
  converge with the Kijun Sen.
• Right after that prices continued its upward
  climb shooting above the Tenkan Sen once again.
• We expect the upward trend to continue.

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EURNZD
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EURNZD

• TD Sequential Buy Countdown was completed in Jan
  2011, forming the interim bottom without testing
  the risk level at 1.6359. Since then the prices
  had a price flip and a sell setup is in play.
• On the ichimoku indicators, prices are rallying
  for the past weeks into the strong resistance
  region formed by the Kumo. This is a good chance
  to take profits on shorts. Both the Kijun and
  Tenkan Sen are currently horizontal.
• We expect prices to go sideways with immediate
  resistance being the Kumo.

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USDTHB
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USDTHB

• US Dollars had a good bounce off the TD
  Sequential Risk level at 29.39. At present, the
  Tenkan Sen crossed above the Kijun Sen. This is a
  weak bullish cross over as the Kumo above is
  still providing good resistance.
• We await confirmation from the Chikou crossing
  above prices to lend any extra hand to the bulls.
  
• Shorts would find it a good time to take profits
  off the table after a long down trend since June
  2009.

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EVA AIRWAYS
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EVA AIRWAYS

• Eva Airways had a TD sell countdown completion
  and prices retreated just shy of the TD Risk
  Level at 38.30. Prices then broke downwards past
  the Tenkan Sen and Kijun while TD Buy setup is in
  the process.
• The Kumo is seen to be at its peak thickness. At
  times, this is seen as a turning point.
• Prices would find support at the Kumo. A drop in
  prices at such a fast and furious rate might see
  a consolidation around the Kumo. The TDST at
  22.90 is another key level to watch.

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YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING HOLDINGS
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YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING HOLDINGS

• Yangzijiangs share price retreated back to the
  Kijun Sen following the completion of TD
  Sequential Sell Countdown, suggesting market
  exhaustion.
• The current TD Setup is compressed together.
  Prices are holding well above the Kijun Sen too.
  At the same time the Kumo is sloping higher. The
  thickness of the Kumo also suggested its strength
  in being a key support region.
• We expect the bull rally to be intact and this
  pullback to the Kijun Sen is a good chance to
  enter long.

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SINGAPORE AIRLINES
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SINGAPORE AIRLINES

• We like this chart in particular due to the
  concurrent occurrence the Kumo twist, prices
  breaking below the Kumo and the Chikou entering
  the Kumo.
• The Tenkan Sen had a weak bearish crossover below
  the Kijun Sen before these.
• We expect prices to drop further.

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METROPOLITAN BANK TRUST
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METROPOLITAN BANK TRUST

• After the TD Sequential Sell Countdown
  completion, prices retreated after testing the
  Risk level at 77.65 on a unqualified basis
  (represented by dotted line).
• Tenkan Sen crossed below the Kijun Sen forming a
  weak bearish crossover. Prices are now inside the
  Kumo and Chikou had broken down of prices
  concurrently.
• Should prices break out of the Kumo, we expect
  the down trend to continue.

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GENTING BHD
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GENTING BHD

• On the weekly charts, the bullish crossover of
  Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen resulted in a strong
  bull rally that lasted for 7 months now.
• For the first time since July 2010, prices are
  converging back to the Kijun Sen in a rubber
  effect, a classic mean reverting sign that we
  always talk about. For the past 2 weeks prices
  refused to close significantly lower than the
  Kijun Sen, clinging on to it for support.
  Although the Tenkan Sen is horizontal at the
  moment, the Kijun Sen is still sloping upwards.
• The Chikou Span is still sitting well above
  prices. This simply means that current close
  price is higher than prices 26 weeks ago,
  suggesting the bull trend is strong.
• The Kumo is thickening and sloping upwards. The
  strength of the support from the Kumo region is
  growing stronger.
• We expect prices to continue its rally longer
  term. The current pullback could present a good
  chance for longs to re-enter. The first line of
  defence is the 23.6 retracement at 9.891.

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GENTING BHD
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GENTING BHD

• On the longer term, the bull trend is aligned to
  the weekly charts. With a thickening upward
  sloping Kumo on the monthly charts, together with
  prices above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, the bull
  trend is intact.
• However we are cautious of a short term pullback
  to the Tenkan Sen in a mean reverting manner.
  This is in line with our weekly view that the
  first line of defence is at 9.891.
• The next support level is the current Tenkan Sen
  on monthly charts at 9.31, after which is the
  Kijun Sen at 7.53. Kijun Sen coincides with the
  50 retracement as well.

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AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP
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AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

• A strong bullish Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen crossover
  happened 2 weeks ago. At the same time the Kumo
  twist happened not long before with the Kumo
  thickening. Chikou Span is also above the prices
  now.
• The recent pullback towards the Tenkan Sen
  presents a good chance to enter long with good
  risk reward ratio.
• A stop loss level can be placed at the bottom of
  the Kumo at 23.09

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BOC HONG KONG HOLDINGS
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BOC HONG KONG HOLDINGS

• TD Sequential completed Sell Countdown and prices
  reversed with interim resistance (stop loss) at
  32.20. Prices then converged towards the Tenkan
  Sen and then the Kijun Sen. A current TD Setup is
  forming, suggesting a down trend might be
  forming. The Chikou Span is about to break below
  prices. We do not suggest anticipation. Rather it
  makes more sense to act upon price confirmation.
  Thus we are cautious of the Chikou Span and await
  confirmation.
• Although the future Kumo is thick, the current
  Kumo is thinner and this could give the bears a
  chance to break below it.
• We would watch out for any bearish signs or
  triggers in coming months.

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CNOOC
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CNOOC

• ltupdate to 26 Jan commentarygt
• As per our past commentary on CNOOC, we commented
  that a good chance to re enter longs would be a
  pullback to the Kijun Sen or Kumo.
• Prices did pullback to the Kijun Sen and close
  above it. Since then prices bounced higher. We
  maintain the view that the bull trend is intact.

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CHINA LIFE INSURANCE
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CHINA LIFE INSURANCE

• TD buy setup is forming with the count 6
  currently achieved suggesting the possibility of
  the formation of bearish momentum.
• This is aligned to the strong bearish Tenkan Sen/
  Kijun Sen crossover. Chikou Span is below prices
  and the Kumo future is bearish.
• We expect the bearish trend to continue with near
  term support being 28.15.

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TOYOTA
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TOYOTA

• A weak bullish crossover of the Tenkan Sen and
  Kijun Sen saw the prices break out of the Kumo in
  a significant manner. At the same time the Chikou
  Span broke out of the Kumo as well.
• Also a Kumo twist happened at about the same
  time. We expect a bull trend to be starting to
  form. This offers a good chance to go long with a
  stop at the Tenkan Sen (3577.5) or Kijun Sen
  (3377.5)
• We are mindful of the Kumo shadow giving a slight
  negation to the bull triggers discussed.

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• APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering
  clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies,
  signals, trading systems, execution services and
  trading platforms. The firm also conducts
  research and technical analysis with a focus on
  Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.