Title: Optical Networking Outlook The Private Sector Then and Now The Public Sector Technology Leadership R
1Optical Networking OutlookThe Private Sector
Then and NowThe Public Sector Technology
Leadership Role
- Optical Network Testbeds Workshop
- Federal Large Scale Network Coordination Group
- August 9-11, 2004
- Franz X. Birkner
- FXB Ventures San Diego Telecom Council
2Acknowledgment and Thanks
- This presentation includes the observations and
insights of - RHK Analysis
- Goldman Sachs Co.
- McKinsey Co.
- DelOro Group
- Dr. Ron Reedy, CTO, Peregrine Semi
- Naser Partovi, Enterprise Partners
- Larry Smarr, Cal(IT)2
- Tom DeFanti, UIC
- Sadik Esener, UCSD
- George Papan, UCSD
- Many others!
3Optical Networking Industry Then The Year 2000
Outlook
- Optical networking would dominate telecom
transport, now and future - First long haul, then regional, metro last mile
- Install rate in 2000 was 75,000 fiber-miles/day
(thats Mach 4)
Forecasters saw growth of huge markets for
communications carriers optical networks!
4Nov. 2000 Optical Network Sales Forecast (RHK)
Grow at 45/yr to 47 B in 2004
5Forecasts Drove Huge Investments in Essential
Optical Enabling Technologies- In 2000, 9.7B
VC investments in 866 component and systems
cos.- Additional 10B invested by Nortel,
Lucent, Alcatel, etc.
Nov. 2000 Forecast (RHK)
6Actual Quarterly Revenues of Publicly Traded
Optical Component Vendors
7Optical Networking Industry NowThe Outlook in
2004Global Components Networks Market (Actual
and Forecast)
8Breakeven Requirements For Selected Optical
Competitors
9Driver of the Optical Networking Equipment
Contraction was Collapse at Carriers
- Optimistic traffic growth forecasts
- Oversupply of investment dollars
- Huge carrier capital expenditures
- Excess capacity and price collapse
- Only carrier recovery can restart equipment
growth and fund essential optical research - What are the prospects?
10Total Capex (1985-2002)of Selected North
American Carriers
11Actual Forecast Bandwidth Demand Continues to
be Robust
12But Excess Capacity Could Persist Through 2006
- U.S. Long-haul
capacity (Terabps) - Installed Lit Capacity
Required Capacity2
13And Service Provider Revenue Per Bit Declines are
Accelerating Historical
Projected
14Forecast Global Carrier Capex is Flat
(2002A-2006E)
15Alternative applications are sought to restart
optical revenues
16Today the public sector must lead!
- Advances in optical networking technology must be
sustained - Science doesnt hibernate
- Existing major initiatives must not be abandoned
- Carry forward tradition Monet, Hornet, Opera
- Drive an optical next generation in 3-5 years
- Essential to US global leadership
- International economic competition
- National security
17Public Sector Optical Networking Leadership Is
Rapidly Emerging
- Public sector optical nets are booming!
- Powerful collaborations are developing
- Why we are here today
18US Public Sector Optical Network Testbeds
Regional Nets
- NSF DRAGON
- ADTnet/BoSSNET
- NSF CHEETAH
- NSF OptIPuter
- StarLight/TransLight/GLIF
- OMNInet
- National LamdaRail
- Internet2 HOPI
- DOE UltraScience
- Pacific Wave
- WAN in Lab
- FiberCo RONs
- CENIC
- iWIRE
- MAX
- SOX
- Fla LamdaRail
19The Public Sector Optical Networking Opportunity
- Create a next generation of optical networking
technology - Beyond SONET, the ITU, even Cisco
- Reset the technology path
- Innovate within the photonic cloud
- A free choice of signal rate and format,
spectrum, power, phase, polarization, network
topology - drive new standards!
- Pursue the true optical frontier!
20Frontier Optical Research Topics
- Optical wavelength synthesis, conversion,
switching - Innovative amplifiers
- Optical 3R regeneration
- Signal processing polarization and dispersion
control - Optical routing
- Photonic crystals nanophotonics (IC
fabrication)
21Frontier Optical Research Topics
- Coherent modulation and bipolar coding
- Enhanced spectral and power efficiency
- Increased channel granularity
- Use wavelength, phase, polarization, delay,
quantum properties for orthogonal coding/routing - Research ways to monitor manage all this!
22Optical Networking Trends - Conclusion
- For 3 to 5 years, public sector - universities
and labs - must carry the torch - You have expertise and facilities
- You have momentum and initial funds
- Optical networking is still in infancy
- It will transform telecommunications
- The private sector will return
- a 20B global market for optical telecom beckons
- Lets work together!