Center for Accessions Research Update

1
Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve
Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve
U.S. Army Accessions CommandFirst Handshake to
First Unit of Assignment

• Center for Accessions Research Update
• State of the Youth Market
• to
• COL Garcia
• 06 Dec 06

2
Objective and Purpose

• The State of the Youth Market is a living
  document designed to consolidate insights on
  youth attitudes, beliefs and behaviors gained
  from a wide variety of research sources.
• Its purposes are to
• characterize and describe the Army recruiting
  market and market situation and
• recommend strategies and/or programs based on
  these critical insights and trends that enable
  successful recruitment and training of Army
  accessions.

3
Research Sources

• Gallup Polls
• US Census Bureau
• US Center for Disease Control
• Natl Center for Education Statistics (NCES)
• Millward Brown Ad Tracking Study
• US Army New Recruit Survey
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Marketing Leadership Council
• Yankelovich Study

• DoD Youth/Adult/Influencer Polls Spring 06
• Teen Research Unlimited (TRU) Spring 06
• Student Monitor Spring 06
• US Military Image Study - 2004
• Influencer Military Perceptions and Attitudes
  Study - 2004
• Market Contact Audit - 2006
• MRSI Hispanic Influencer Study
• Beloit College Mindset List - 2006

4
Top Market Insights

• About 73 of American youth are not eligible for
  Army service
• Propensity is the lowest its been in over two
  decades
• Patriotism has steadily decreased since 2002, yet
  still higher than pre-9/11
• College is overwhelmingly the preferred post-high
  school choice (for both prospects and
  influencers)
• Risk / Reward ratio favors civilian work vs
  military
• Breaking through media clutter continues to be
  challenging
• Teen social concerns focus on issues that
  directly impact youth and that are local to them
• Army is perceived as ordinary vs other services
• GWOT continues to have a polarizing effect on the
  youth market

5
Size of 17-24 Year Old Recruiting Market

• The 17-24 year old recruiting market of 30.8
  million is defined as the documented, male and
  female population, not institutionalized or
  currently serving in the Armed Forces
• Approximately 50 of the recruiting market is
  lost due to overweight, moral, medical or
  dependent disqualifications
• 27 (8.3 million) of the 17-24 year old
  recruiting market is qualified with a HSDG and
  TSC A-B
• The prime market consisting of fully qualified,
  HSDG, TSC I-IIIA males is 2.2 million (7.1 of
  the primary recruiting market)

6
17-24 YO Youth Population (M/F)
Refining the Market for FY07
30.8 M
Potential Market minus - Cat IV - Non-HSDG
10.7 M
6.1 M
Target Market minus - IIIB - I-IIIA Females -
Waivers (1.2 M)
8.8 M (Less than 3 of 10)
5.2 M
Millions
14 M
In-Military 1.1
Non-HSDG 3.1

• Total Market minus
• Disqualified
• Medically
• Morally
• Dependent
• Overweight

8.3 M
HSDG lt CAT IIIB 2.6
HSDG IIIB 1.9
HSDG IIIB 1.9
6
HSDG Female I-IIIA 3.0
HSDG Female I-IIIA 3.0
2.2 M
HSDG Male I-IIIA 3.4
HSDG Male I-IIIA 3.4
HSDG Male I-IIIA 2.2
Potential Market
Target Market
Prime Market
Recruiters must focus on finding the Prime Market
(7.1)
Even with a waiver, less than half are able to
serve
Limited number of Non-HSDG and CAT IV are able to
serve
Estimate based on 2005 Camber Prime Market
Study 2005 DOD QMA Study 2005 Woods Poole
(2006 projections)
7
Insight 1 About 73 of American youth are not
eligible for military service

• Youth market size 30.8M 17-24 year olds (Woods
  Poole 2006 estimate)
• Qualified Military Available (QMA) is 27.2M which
  includes enrolled in high school, high school
  graduates, GED certificates, enrolled in college
  (2- or 4-year), or college graduate
• 55 disqualified for weight, medical, moral
  dependent reasons
• 44 disqualified for education aptitude
• (these are not mutually exclusive)
• Approximately 27 of youth market (8.3M) is fully
  qualified HSDG TSC A-B
• Only 2.2M males qualified HSDG TSC A 17-24 year
  olds
• Male high quality market
• 51 of RA contracts produced from this market

2005 Camber Prime Mkt Study 2005 DoD QMA
Study
8
Insight 1 27 of American youth are qualified
for military service
We need to continue to find ways to get American
volunteers qualified to meet the standards for
service!

• Actions from Intelligence
• Incentives
• Examine potential for expanding the market (RER
  2015)
• ARMS
• Increase enlistment age
• DoD body fat standards

9
Insight 1 Nearly 1 out of 3 Public High
SchoolStudents wont Graduate

• The national graduation rate is between 64 and
  71.
• Nearly half of all dropouts ages 16-24 are
  unemployed.
• Many companies require a high school diploma
  rather than a GED because a diploma shows that
  these applicants had the discipline to gut out a
  tough processthey learned to get along with
  people, some of whom they may not have liked so
  well, in order to achieve their goals.

Actions from intelligence

• Develop programs in schools to encourage
  graduation.
• Examine potential for expanding the market
• Non-HSDG, TSC I-IIIA
• GED, GED ,TSC I-IIIA
• Spanish language ASVAB
• Non-citizens
• Promote ASVAB preparation (March 2 Success / ACE)
• Promote better academic performance in urban
  areas through JROTC

2002 Northeastern University Study
Manhattan Institute Study
10
Insight 2 Propensity for the Military is the
lowest it has been in 2 decades - prospects
An individual who indicates that they Definitely
Will or Probably Will serve in the military in
the next few years is considered Propensed.
Propensity is used as a barometer for overall
youth attitudes toward military service. The
steady decline that began in the 1991 (with the
exception of 2003) has increased drastically
since 2003.
15.7
DoD Youth Poll for Spring 06 Not officially
released.

Question How likely it is that you will be
serving in the military in the next few years?
Source YATS (1984-1999) and DoD Youth Polls
(2001-2006)(Fall 2005)
11
Insight 2 Only 37 of influencers (29 of
parents) said they would likely recommend the
Military post high school

• When specifically asked whether they would
  recommend the Military as a post high school
  option, only 37 of influencers said that it
  would be likely.

Question Suppose one of your children/students/a
youth you know came to you for advice about
various post-high school options. How likely is
it that you would recommend? Would you be very
likely, likely, neither likely nor unlikely,
unlikely or very unlikely? Source
DoD Influencer Poll
12
Insight 2 43 percent of Mothers would Try and
Talk Their ChildOut of Joining the Military
Statement If my child/grandchild/young person
told me they were thinking of joining the
military, I would try to talk them out of it.
Strongly Agree/Agree
Action on Intelligence

• Target influencers with both advertising and
  recruiting efforts (national local)
• Develop marketing to allow influencers to become
  knowledgeable.
• Be specific target moms.
• About 23 of households are single mother
  households in the US. (US Census Bureau - 2005)

• Moms are also the least knowledgeable about the
  military (only 18 say they are knowledgeable
  about the military).
• 59 of mothers say I would need to gather more
  information about the military before I would be
  prepared to discuss it with my child/grandchild/yo
  ung person.

JAMRS (Dec 05)
13
Insight 3 Patriotism has Declined Since 2002
Responses from youth regarding Is Being
Patriotic In or Out?
(16-19 Year Olds)
Fall 01 Survey was fielded prior to 9/11
Fall 05 and Spring Fall 06 Displaying
the American Flag was not on the in list
Source TRU, Fall 06
14
Insight 3 Being Patriotic is In for less than
57 of 16-19 Year Olds
Actions from Intelligence

• Maintain strong military presence in communities
• Aggressive Call to Duty
• Army Advocacy
• Involve current military, parents, veterans,
  spouses
• Continued emphasis on public relations
• Target the Probably Not propensity group with
  targeted marketing addressing barriers, rather
  than motivators
• Pre-prospecting

15
Insight 4 College is overwhelmingly the
preferred post-high school choice
Going to college is a desired societal norm the
expectation is if you can, you will. Choosing
not to results in a social stigma.

• Over 92 of 16-19 year olds plan to go on to
  college 67 of HS graduates actually do continue
  on to college.
• College is by far the most preferred option of
  influencers in giving guidance for choices after
  high school (91.6 recommend a 4-year college).

TRU Fall 06 / NCES
Source DoD Influencer Poll, Fall05
16
Insight 4 67 percent of High School
Graduatesgo on to College after Graduation
Of those 67, 55 graduate from a 4-year
institution and 33 graduate from a 2-year
institution
Actions from Intelligence

• Total price of attendance (tuition plus room and
  board and other expenses) for full-time
  undergraduates in 2003-2004 was 15,200 at public
  4-year college/universities (with a 10 yearly
  increase, by 2006, the cost estimate is 18,392).
• Nearly 75 of full-time undergraduates receive
  some type of financial aid (student loans,
  grants, scholarships, work study, etc.). However,
  education costs are rising faster than aid, thus
  financial aid provides a lower percentage of the
  total cost.
• Student indebtedness is on the rise due to
  increase college cost and decreased financial aid

• Target of opportunity for the Army Reserve and
  ROTC
• Penetrate the College Market
• Increase Army Reserve Simultaneous Membership
  Program (SMP)
• Capitalize on the following
• Montgomery GI Bill
• Army College Fund
• Loan Repayment Program
• Concurrent Admissions Program
• Tuition Assistance
• eARMYU
• ROTC
• Green to Gold Program
• Integrated Career Plan (ICP)
• PaYs

17
Insight 5 Risk / Reward ratio favors civilian
work vs military

• Military financial reward is comparable to
  civilian sector perception is that risk is
  greatly imbalanced
• Average E3 lt2 yrs annual salary 33,990
  (includes Base Pay, BAH and BAS - single) (OSD
  Military Compensation Web Site)
• Average male with HS diploma annual salary is
  29,011 (2004 US Census Bureau projected for 2006
  single never married)
• Example Diesel mechanic, 1 yr experience, HS
  Diploma avg salary 37,033 (rural) to 39,117
  (metro) (salary.com)
• Civilian benefits packages vary widely

CIVILIAN
MILITARY
18
Insight 5 How to Overcome the Risk/Reward Ratio
Actions from Intelligence

• Increase Special Pay
• Partnership for Youth Success (PaYS)
• A larger percentage of military pay is disposable
  incomestress benefits
• ICP

19
Insight 6 Breaking through media clutter
continues to be challenging

• Developments in media and entertainment
  technology enable youth market to be more
  selective in what they view.
• Teens use media first and foremost for
  entertainment purposes.
• Nearly 80 of teens do something other than watch
  TV commercials when they come on.
• Nearly 70 of teens have a cell phone and 94 use
  the cell phone for text messaging.
• Nearly all teens (92) go online during an
  average week. Approximately 85 have access to a
  computer at home and 91 have online access.
• Teens use the computer and cell phone to expand
  their social groups and can be in constant
  contact with friends and family (text messaging,
  MySpace.com, Facebook.com, blogging, etc.).
• Nearly half of girls and more than one-third of
  guys report having a profile on MySpace.com.
  Sixteen percent write their own blogs and nearly
  one-third watch streaming videos online.
• New trend is Digital Video Recorders (DVRs)
  While only 11 of US homes have DVRs 87 of
  those households zap commercials. (US News
  World Reports)

Source Teen Research Unlimited, Fall 06
20
Insight 6 Breaking through media clutter is
a challenge - Our Prime Market is
Technologically Savvy
Web Online Applications
Email Marketing
TRU analysts have been talking up their Virtual
Intimates theme for more than a year now,
reminding clients that connection-positive teens
are looking to make friends and meet brands on
community sites like MySpace, Facebook, and
Xanga. Be there or be less relevant in their
lives.
Use Text Messaging
Increase local advertising
YouTube.com
Ensure that GoArmy.com is linked to this
technologically savvy generation.
21
Insight 7 Teen social concerns tend to be local
and focus on issues that directly impact them

• Child abuse
• Drinking and driving
• AIDS
• Abortion
• Prejudice/Racism
• Education
• Sexual Assault
• Drug Abuse
• War
• Terrorism

Terrorism How Safe Do You Feel?(16-19 Year Old
Males)
Based on top 3 and bottom 3 out of 10 scale
Source Teen Research Unlimited, Fall 06
22
Insight 7 Focus on Social Concerns
DirectlyAffecting this Age Group
Action from Intelligence

• Community focus provides opportunity for Reserves
• Stress community involvement, education, and
  leadership
• Explain the no tolerance to prejudice, racism,
  and sexual assault policies in the military
• Army involvement in Education
• Physical education
• Prevention of child abuse programs
• Prevention of drunk driving programs
• Humanitarian efforts (Katrina, etc.)

23
Insight 8 Influencers perceive Army as
ordinary vs other services

• Relative to other branches, the Army is still
  most likely to be considered ordinary one half
  describe the Army as a last resort for a military
  career choice. (Source 2004 Image Equity Study)
• Imagery trends have remained fairly consistent
  across waves. In Wave 12 (Jan-Mar 06), 80 or
  more of influencers associated the Army with the
  following images
• For people willing to sacrifice for their country
  (89)
• Opportunity to travel (87)
• Money for college (85)
• Something to be proud of (83)
• Opportunity for adventure (80)
• (Source Wave 12 DoD Advertising
  Tracking Study Wave 12 (Jan-Mar 06)

How likely are you to recommend youth to join the
?
Source DoD Influencer Poll, Fall 05
24
Insight 8 Perceptions of Army vs Other Services

• Relative to other branches, the Army is still
  most likely to be considered ordinary one half
  describe the Army as a last resort for a military
  career choice.
• The Armys shares many positive common traits
  with the Marines
• Physically tough, where the action is, best
  representing the U.S. Military, and never leaving
  a fallen comrade behind.
• Although the Marines better personify the Warrior
  Ethos and Soldiers Creed overall, the Army holds
  its own on several of these dimensions and shares
  many positive traits with the Marines.
• The Armys image is weaker than the other
  branches on technology, high standards, being
  elite, or for better educated people.
• The Air Force is seen as elite, with high
  standards, training, and higher on use of cutting
  edge technology.
• The Navy is more specialized, better for women,
  and like the Air Force, provides skills to help
  you get a better job, and provides training on
  cutting edge technology.

2004 Image Equity Study
25
Insight 8 Army perceived as ordinary
Actions from Intelligence

• Army Strong / Branding initiatives
• Continue to stress the technology aspect of the
  military
• Increase awareness that 90 of accessions are
  High School Diploma graduates or equivalent
• Leverage Army advocates
• Utilize goArmy.com website

26
Insight 9 GWOT has a polarizing effect on the
youth market
Youth 17-24
Influencers
NET EFFECT IS NEGATIVE
Source Gallup Polls
Source DoD Youth Poll, Fall 05
27
Insight 9 GWOT has a polarizing effect on the
youth market
Actions from Intelligence

• FY07 Research Studies focusing on motivators and
  barriers
• National call to service
• Recruiter talking points
• Army advocacy (parents, grandparents, soldiers,
  veterans, spouses)

28
Understanding the Market
29
Market Composition

• 2006 Total Target Pop Size (QMA) 27.1M 17-24 YO
  and 15.3M 25-29 YO (50-50 male/female split)
• Projected Growth By 2010 17-24 YO pop will
  increase by 1.1M (3.9) and 25-29 YO pop will
  increase by 1.2 M (7.3).
• QMA Race/Ethnic Breakout (17-24 YO) Although
  African-American, Hispanic, and API all show
  growth in numbers and proportion, by 2020
  Hispanics will overtake African-Americans as the
  2nd largest QMA group. Caucasians will
  decline in proportion (-8.4).

Source Woods Poole
30
Market Location
17-24 Qualified Military Available by County
2006(with Rctg Bn Boundaries)
Clusters found in and around major US population
centers.
Source Woods Poole
31
Market Location
Actions from Intelligence

• Continue to place recruiters where market is
  (PAE)
• Maintain strong recruiter presence
• Utilize segmentation down to lowest practical
  levels (battalion---company)
• Utilize technology to target specific market
  segments

32
Interesting Facts about the Prime Market Youth

• They were born around 1988.
• They have only known two presidents.
• The Soviet Union has never existed and therefore
  about as scary as the student union.
• There has always only been one Germany.
• They are wireless yet always connected.
• A stained blue dress is as famous to their
  generation as a third-rate burglary was to their
  parents.
• A coffee has always taken longer to make than a
  milkshake.
• Smoking has never been permitted on airplanes.
• DNA fingerprinting has always been admissible
  evidence in court.
• They grew up pushing their own miniature shopping
  carts in the supermarket.
• Google has always been a verb.
• Text messaging is their email.

• Madden has always been a game, not a
  Superbowl-winning coach.
• They grew up in minivans.
• Reality shows have always been on TV.
• They have no idea why we needed to ask can we
  all get along?
• They have always known that In the criminal
  justice system the people have been represented
  by two separate yet equally important groups.
• Young womens fashions have never been concerned
  with where the waist is.
• They have rarely mailed anything using a stamp.
• Brides have always worn white for a first,
  second, or third wedding.
• Affluent troubled teens have always been subjects
  of television series.
• They have always been searching for Waldo.
• Michael Moore has always been showing up
  uninvited.
• Disposable contact lenses have always been
  available.

Source Beloit College Mindset List for the
College Class of 2010
33
Whats In
Girls
Guys

• Blogging MySpace
• Ripped jeans polos
• Rap/Hip-hop
• Going to the movies
• DVDs Cellphones
• Long Hair

• Blogging Podcasting
• Playing cards, poker,
• and gambling
• Hooded sweatshirts
• Graphic tees
• Rap/Hip-hop
• DVDs and Cellphones
• Long Hair on Girls

Source TRU, Spr 06
34
Favorite TV Shows - Male
Action from Intelligence

• Place TV advertisements during
• these shows

Source TRU, Spr 06
35
Online Facts

• 84 of teens have access to a home computer
• 90 of teens with a home computer have online
  access at home
• 55 of online teens have a high-speed internet
  connection at home
• 44 of teens have set up personal sites and/or
  view others profiles
• Girls socialize more online while males lead in
  gambling, entertainment, and e-commerce.

• Time Spent Online
• 0 Hours 14
• Less than 5 hours 36
• 5 to 10 hours 24
• 11 20 hours 13
• More than 20 hours 13

Source TRU, Spr 06
36
Goals and Aspirations

• Most youth still believe in the work ethic and
  value doing something with their lives.
• However, they are still looking for long-term
  financial success and recognize technology skills
  and education as the means to attain it.
• Having fun and experiencing life to the fullest
  are high priorities, but not at the expense of
  future success.
• Young people are not overly concerned with safety
  or avoiding risks, but willingness to fight for
  ones country is low and depends on the cause.

2004 Image Equity Study
37
Self-Perceptions

• 9 in 10 young adults say they are happy,
  confident, and positive
• Optimistic
• Decreasing worry about violence, sex, or drugs
• Suicide rates falling
• Believe growing up easier for them then their
  parents
• Team Players
• Gravitating to group activities
• Believe Selfishness is a major cause of
  problems in the country
• Believe in their own collective power
• Accept Authority
• Identify with their parents (current) values
• Trust and feel close to their parents
• Half believe that a lack of parental discipline
  is a major social problem
• Majority favor tougher rules against misbehavior
  in the classroom and society at large
• Follow Rules
• Declining youth crime, teen pregnancy, and
  abortion rates

Sources Millennials Rising
Barna Research Group Federal
Interagency Forum on Child and
Family Statistics (Americas Children 03)
38
Motivators For Military Service
Five most important military motivators

• Educational assistance
• Get help paying for a college education 58
• Benefits
• It offers excellent benefits, such as health
  care, retirement, and vacation 55
• Adventure
• The opportunity to travel and see the world
  54
• Have exciting experiences and adventures 49
• Pride and honor
• The military is an honorable occupation 50
• Be a part of something I can take pride in 49
• Experience
• Gain management and leadership experience 49

Source 2004 Image Equity Study
39
Barriers To Military Service
Top of mind military barriers

• Personal injury or death
• I might be killed in combat
• I might be captured and tortured
• I might be wounded in combat
• Possibly facing an enemy who might use chemical
  or biological weapons
• Aversion to fighting/military
• I might have to kill innocent people
• I dont want to kill people
• Career
• I have other career interests
• Time commitment
• I might hate it once I got in and then be stuck
• The long time commitment required
• Ethical concerns
• May have to fight for a cause I dont support

Many of the barriers that exist today were not
factors in 2000.
In the past barriers were about inconvenience or
preference for another life choice. Now they
have switched to something quite differentfear
of death or injury.
2004 Image Equity Study
40
Military vs College
4-Year College Wins

• Help finding good paying job (74)
• Something parents/family proud of (73)
• Do something mentally challenging (72)
• Prepare to achieve personal goals (71)
• Prepare you to succeed in life (70)
• Enjoy your life (65)
• Do something you can be proud of (64)
• Do something friends will respect (63)
• Be treated fairly (59)
• Develop personal values qualities (53)
• Get training in specific job skills (45)

• College beats the military on delivering many
  desirable future benefits.

The military, however best delivers physical
benefits, including doing something challenging,
discipline, and adventure.
Military Wins

• Do something physically challenging (78)
• Discipline (72)
• Adventure (69)
• Develop leadership skills (54)

Military and college are at parity on making a
difference and job security.
Draw

• Opportunity to make a difference
• Have job security
• Get paid well right away

2004 Image Equity Study
41
Who Influences Youth Career Decisions?
1 Mom 2 Dad 3 Close Friends 4 Brothers
Sisters 5 (Much Less Influential) - Guidance
Counselors/ Teachers/Clergy/Coaches
And They Know It!
Hispanic and African American moms have more
influence than in other groups.
2005 Influencer Study MRSI Hispanic
Influencer Study
42
Influencer Attitudes (Desires for the Youth)

• 4-year college is by far parents preferred
  choice for their child. College is perceived to
  deliver on many of the attributes considered
  important for the future.
• Although civilian jobs are preferred over
  military service as a career option, military
  service compares fairly well against civilian
  jobs, and especially 2-year college, on many of
  the attributes considered important for career
  decisions.
• Parental discussions with children on career
  choices are more directive with High School kids
  than with College or Work Force.

2005 Influencer Study
43
Influencer Attitudes (Opinions of the
Military/Army)

• Best reasons for joining the military money for
  college, self-discipline, learn trade or skill,
  training in new technology, and opportunity to
  travel. Service to country ranked seventh, which
  is down from last influencer poll.
• Safety/Exposure to being killed/wounded is the
  major concern for influencers.
• Other top reasons for not joining Have to put
  career plans on hold, loss of a normal lifestyle.
• The Army falls far below the Air Force as the
  preferred service branch in terms of a career
  choice among all ethnic groups.
• The Armys current image as a career choice
  relative to the other branches ordinary,
  accepts anybody, last resort as a career choice,
  most exposure to being killed/wounded.

2005 DoD Influencer Poll
44
Influencer Attitudes (Advice on the Military)

• Overall, most parents would remain neutral or be
  supportive if their child decided to join the
  military.
• More African American parents are opposed to
  their child joining the military. However, along
  with Hispanics, they also have a higher
  proportion who support joining. White parents
  are more neutral.
• Dads are more supportive of their child joining
  the military than are moms.
• Parents of college kids are more opposed than
  parents of high school or Workforce/Stop-out,
  Drop-out kids.

2005 DoD Influencer Poll
45
Influencer Attitudes Impact of the War in Iraq
on Likelihood to Recommend
2005 DoD Influencer Poll
SSpring FFall
46
Likelihood to Recommend Military Service
Third year anniversary of invasion of Iraq (3/20)
Cindy Sheehan gains popularity (August)
Anti war rally in D.C. (9/24)
Iraqi Shias win Parliamentary elections (1/21)
Iraq parliament chooses president (April)
Iraqi Parliamentary elections (12/15)
Transfer of Power (6/28)/ Iraq takes custody of
Saddam Hussein (6/30)
Iraqi President goes to Iran (11/18)
Zarqawi allegedly wounded (5/26)
Saddam trial begins (10/19)
100 killed in Hilla car bombing (2/28)
5 Marines killed in bombing (6/10)
Falluja retaken by US (11/15)
London bombings (7/7)
Pres. Reagan Died (6/6)
Iraqis vote (1/30)
Stand-off at Najaf Begins (8/05)
1st Afghanistan Election (10/8)
Presidential Debates (9/30-10/13)
Presidential Election (11/2)
Attack on US base in Mosul (12/22)
Democratic Convention (7/26-29)
Republican Convention (8/30-9/2)
Abu Gharib Allegations (early May)
New Iraqi PM appointed (4/22)
Bodies dragged in Fallujah (4/1)
State of the Union (1/20)
I would like to ask your opinion about some
specific choices that young people have. Suppose
a youth you know came to you for advice about
various post- high school options. How likely is
it that you would recommend joining a military
service such as the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air
Force or Coast Guard?
JAMRS Influencer Study April 2006
47
Influence of GWOT on Those Who Choose to Enlist
S6Q1 Has the ongoing nation-building mission in
Iraq had any impact on decisions to enlist?
Source NRS 2005
48
Other External Factors
Political Social Economic
49
Political Environment

• Veteran Representation among Politicians and in
  the population as a whole is declining.
• Congressional Support for a Stronger Military
  Has increased as a result of the attacks of 9-11,
  the War on Terror, and Operation Iraqi Freedom
  but funding is still an issue.
• Election 06 Candidates had fundamental
  differences in their views on the conduct of the
  War on Terrorism, Economy, etc. Close election
  reflected corresponding split in public opinion.
  There are younger members of Congress and less
  are veterans. Congress had a net loss of 9
  veterans in the last election.

Total Veteran Population (Millions)
Year
Source VA
Source Congressional Research Service
50
Social Environment

• Since 9-11, public confidence in the military
  generally higher. (Leads next ranking
  institution by 25.) Expect high level for at
  least as long as public opinion of the war is
  viewed separately from opinion of soldiers/Army.
• Extensive media coverage of Operation Iraqi
  Freedom increased public awareness and interest
  in military, but also awareness of the hardships
  of soldiering.
• Public support of Army / propensity historically
  decline as hostilities lengthen and success /
  validity of the campaign is questioned
• People generally respect those who serve in the
  military, but are not inclined to join the
  military.

War on Terror
Desert Storm
Reagan Re-elected
Post-Somalia
Source Harris Interactive
Daily news almost always includes stories about
terrorism, war, or unrest somewhere in the world.
51
Youth Economic Environment

• Youth unemployment from 2000 to mid-2003
  increased steadily at a rate of 2 each year.
• Near term Strengthening youth labor market with
  unemployment gradually decreasing.
• Job Security This was the first economic
  downturn that the current youth cohort has
  experienced Youth are optimistic about the
  recovery and their ability to find jobs in the
  recovering economy.
• Expected Economic Recovery - benefits nation,
  however many studies (Rand, Early-Warning System)
  indicate that there is a lag in effect when it
  comes to recruiting.

Quarterly Youth (16-19 year old) Unemployment Rate
(Jan 89 Thru 2d Quarter 06)
Source Bureau of Labor and Statistics
52
Conclusion

• Todays youth are
• concerned about their community
• service-oriented
• team-oriented
• technologically savvy
• focused on college
• concerned with influencer input, but educated
  enough to decide on their own
• Army Strong addresses many of the attitudes,
  behaviors and beliefs that motivate the youth of
  America
• We must continue to research, analyze and address
  the barriers that prevent the youth market from
  considering the Army as their first choice for
  service to their nation

53
Questions?