Example Solar System Exploration Science Missions Enabled by Nuclear Electric Propulsion

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PROJECT PROMETHEUS
Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk
CommunicationPresentation to NASA GSFC Systems
Engineering SeminarVictoria P.
FriedensenMay 2003
the navigation of interplanetary space depends
for its solution on the problem of atomic
disintegration Robert H. Goddard, 1907
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Outline of Todays Presentation

• Background on Project Prometheus
• A Short Tutorial on Risk Communication
• Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk
  Communication

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Space Science EnterpriseAgency Vision and Mission

• The NASA Vision To improve life here, to
  extend life to there, to find life beyond.
• The NASA Mission To understand and protect our
  home planet, to explore the universe and search
  for life, to inspire the next generation of
  explorers . . .
• as only NASA can.

• Space Science Themes
• Astronomical Search for Origins
• Structure and Evolution of the Universe
• Solar System Exploration
• Mars Exploration
• Sun Earth Connection

• Space Science Vision
• How did the universe begin and evolve?
• How did we get here?
• Where are we going?
• Are we alone?

The Space Science Vision fully supports the NASA
Mission
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Match the Power System to the Destination
Kuiper Belt Objects / Comets
Centaur Minor Planets
Main Asteroid Belt
Trans-Neptunian Objects
Trojan Asteroids
Jupiter and Moons
Saturn and Moons
Uranus and Moons
Neptune and Moons
Pluto/Charon
Inner Planets

• Solar Electric Confinedto Inner Solar System
• Also limited reach to large outer planetary
  bodies with aerocapture (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus,
  Neptune only)

• Nuclear Electric for Large Flagship Missions to
  Outer Planets
• Large Targets
• 100 kW Class Reactor
• gt500 kg Payloads
• Delta IV Launch Vehicles

• Radioisotope Electric for New Frontiers Class
  Outer Solar System Missions
• Targets with low Mass
• 500 W Class RTG
• lt50 kg payload
• Delta II Launchers

RTG for Surface Lander
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Project Prometheus Overview

• Safety is the absolute highest priority
• Key components of Project Prometheus
• Radioisotope power systems development
• Nuclear propulsion research
• Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) development
• Project Prometheus is in addition to the In-Space
  Propulsion Program already in the baseline

Project Prometheus will enable a new strategic
approach to planetary exploration and is
likelyto play a key role in NASAs future
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Space Propulsion Power

• Today (chemical propulsion radioisotope power)
• Launch, then coast
• Constricted ability to operate science
  instruments (power limits)
• Constricted ability to transmit science data to
  Earth
• Constricted launch opportunities due to gravity
  assists
• Cannot orbit multiple moons of outer planets
• Limited to fleeting observation from flyby
• Cannot change target mid-mission

• Future (nuclear electric propulsion)
• Much greater ability to change speed
• Much greater (practically unlimited) power for
  instruments
• Vastly greater ability to transmit science data
  to Earth
• No launch constraint to use gravity assists
• Can orbit multiple objects or moons
• Vastly greater, persistent observation time
• Can change target mid-mission (to support change
  in priorities)

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NASAs Space Science Strategic Plan Enabled by
Nuclear Electric Propulsion

• Example of Space Science NEP candidate missions

• Revolutionary Exploration Missions (multiple
  destinations per Mission) to meet NASAs most
  challenging exploration goals
• Jupiter Icy Moons Tour (orbital characterization
  of Europa, Ganymede, Callisto)
• Europa is 1 Large Mission in NRCs Decadal
  Survey
• Titan Orbiter and Surface/Atmosphere Explorer
• Neptune System Orbiter Kuiper Belt Object
  Reconnaissance
• Kuiper Belt Objects are 1 Moderate Mission
  NRCs Decadal Survey
• Comet Chaser
• Revolutionary Missions and Capabilities Using
  Surface Nuclear Power
• Lunar and Mars Surface Power for Science, Human
  Exploration, Deep Subsurface
• Earth Protection Support
• Multiple Near-Earth Object (NEO) Reconnaissance
  and Characterization (the NEO
  prospector mission) and potential mitigation

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Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter Conceptual Design,
Animation
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Jupiter Icy Moons TourCharting the Water Worlds
of Jupiter

• New level of exploration not possible with
  chemical propulsion orbiters
• Full characterization of all three icy
  moons
• Interior structure and crustal thickness from
  geodesy, magnetics
• Full range of remote sensing
• Hi resolution imaging to study moons history
• IR and thermal spectral studies to search for
  organics, salts
• Multi-frequency radar tomography of icy crusts
  to depths of 30-40 km
• Determine processes which bring the ocean to us
• Search for shallow liquid layers
• Mass and power margins enable complete
  investigation suite, orders of magnitude larger
  data return than single Europa Orbiter

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Many Technologies Extend to a Broad Range of
Future Space Exploration Missions
10 Years
20 Years
Now

• Many of the technology, fabrication, and
  ground-based capacities developed for the first
  space nuclear propulsion mission have direct
  application to potential follow-on missions
• Nuclear fuel and clad fabrication capacity
• Nuclear reactor design, analysis, and
  qualification methodology and software
• Neutron and gamma shield, and neutron reflector
  fabrication capacity
• Radiation-tolerant nuclear reactor
  instrumentation and control fabrication
  capacity
• Space nuclear reactor power system autonomy
• Power conversion fabrication capacity
• Low mass, large-scale radiation-tolerant thermal
  radiators fabrication capacity
• High power density electrical power control and
  distribution fabrication capacity
• High power electric propulsion fabrication
  capacity
• Safety and launch approval procedures, National
  Environmental Policy Act procedures and actions
• Ground test facility and support equipment (both
  for zero-power critical testing, and potential
  full power testing)

Evolvable technologies for follow-on science
driven exploration missions
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Project Prometheus Communication, Public
Engagement, Education, and Outreach

• Goal is to ensure open, honest, pro-active,
  inclusive, dialogue and communication with the
  public, media, educators, legislators and others
• Focus on Project Prometheus-specific
  technological and programmatic goals within the
  context of NASA scientific and exploration goals
• Plans provide for proactive, cooperative
  engagement with a broad range of potential
  stakeholders including environmental
  organizations
• Includes technology education and outreach
  programs and materials available to all citizens

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Outline of Todays Presentation

• Background on Project Prometheus
• A Short Tutorial on Risk Communication
• Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk
  Communication

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What is Risk?

• RISK
• Probability of a Hazard
• X
• Impact of the Hazard Occurring

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What is Risk Communication?
Risk Communication is not Telling people what we
want them to know, in order to get them to behave
rationally, that is, the way we think they
should behave.
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What is Risk Communication?

• A defined by the Society for Risk Analysis An
  interactive process of exchange of information
  and opinion among individuals, groups, and
  institutions often involves multiple messages
  about the nature of risk or expressing concerns,
  opinions, or reactions to risk messages or to
  legal or institutional arrangements for risk
  management.
• Our working definition The method by which the
  public can be informed as to the potential risks
  and benefits of specific projects and programs.
• Risk communication deals with all written and
  verbal external communication with the media,
  public, interest groups, Congress, and other
  government agencies regarding NASA missions or
  programs that are controversial or related to the
  controversial aspects of a mission or program

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Risk Communication is Based on Perception of Risk

• Risks Perceived to
• Be voluntary
• Be under an individuals control
• Have clear benefits
• Be distributed fairly
• Be natural
• Be statistical
• Be generated by a trusted source
• Be familiar
• Affect adults

• Are More Accepted Than
• Risks perceived as being imposed
• Risks perceived to be controlled by others
• Risks perceived to have little or no benefit
• Risks perceived to be unfairly distributed
• Risks perceived to be manmade
• Risks perceived to be catastrophic
• Risks perceived to be generated by an untrusted
  source
• Risks perceived to be exotic
• Risks perceived to affect children

Understanding the perception of a risk is key to
creating effective Risk Communication products
and opportunities
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Developmental Stages in Risk Communication

• All we have to do is get the numbers right
• All we have to do is tell them the numbers
• All we have to do is explain what we mean by the
  numbers
• All we have to do is show them that theyve
  accepted similar risks in the past
• All we have to do is show them that its a good
  deal for them
• All we have to do is treat them nice
• All we have to do is make them partners
• All of the above
• Source Baruch Fischhoff, Risk Perception and
  Communication Unplugged Twenty Years of
  Process, Journal of Risk Analysis, 15137-45
  (1995).

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Risk Communication Can Fail Because

• On a personal basis
• It doesnt take into account the psychological
  basis for the perception of risk
• It fails to recognize why people respond to risks
  the way they do.
• It refuses to accept that this irrational
  behavior is how humans are programmed to try to
  protect themselves
• Perception of risk is hardwired and we cant
  help it its how we, as a species, survived
• It has the goal of making everyone see the risk
  as the communicator sees it
• Decide-Announce-Defend or Just-the-Facts-Maam
  approaches dont work

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Risk Communication Can Fail Because

• On an organizational basis
• It is not done proactively, but only after a
  problem has arisen and public responses and ideas
  have already formed
• It is a lecture, not a conversation
• It is done by people with a vested interest that
  conflicts with the audience, so it appears that
  the facts cannot be trusted
• It focuses solely on the facts and the facts
  are not the cause of the controversy

Crisis Heightened public emotions Limited
access to facts Rumor, gossip, speculation,
assumption and inference An unstable
information environment. US HHS 2002
Communicating in a Crisis Risk Communication
Guidelines for Public Officials
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Risk Communication Can Be Successful if

• It accepts that the dialogue sometimes may be
  more about feelings than facts
• Information is shared and concerns acknowledged
• All sides appreciate diverse opinions and
  perspectives in an atmosphere of consensus
  building
• If the communicators are proactively prepared and
  understand their role
• Consistent messages, open and accountable
  processes, and a solid understanding of the
  importance of good risk communication are
  important.

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Keys to Good Risk Communication

• Before Controversy Develops
• Determine and coordinate the messages
• What information is crucial to convey and are the
  messages different prior, during or after an
  event?
• What are the obstacles to effective
  communications and how can they be minimized?
• Ensure that spokespersons are identified and
  prepared
• What are the opportunities for effective
  communications and how can they be maximized?
• What is the environment into which we are
  introducing information?
• Who are the audiences and what are their
  attitudes?
• Engage the public and media in a long-term
  coordinated dialogue, using a variety of formats
• What questions can we anticipate from the public
  when we communicate risk messages?
• What are the new medias responsibilities and how
  can we help reporters meet them?
• How can we come to understand our audiences?

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Risk Communication Components

• The Risk Message
• A written, verbal, or visual statement containing
  information about risk may or may not include
  advice about risk reduction behavior a formal
  risk message is a structured written, audio or
  visual packaged developed with the express
  purpose of presenting information about risk.
• Ease public concern
• Stay on Message
• Deliver Accurate and Timely Information
• US HHS 2002 Communicating in a Crisis Risk
  Communication Guidelines for Public Officials

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Risk Communication Components

• The Risk Communicator
• The individual or office sending a risk message
  or interacting with other individuals, groups or
  organizations in a risk communication process
  may also be the risk manager, the risk message
  preparer, risk analyst or other expert
• Use consistent names and terms
• Avoid acronyms and jargon
• Carefully consider the use of visuals
• Answer not only the question how much? but also
  will it hurt me? to ensure the information is
  relevant
• Use familiar frames of reference
• US HHS 2002 Communicating in a Crisis Risk
  Communication Guidelines for Public Officials

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Risk Communication Components

• Acknowledge Uncertainty
• If information is not known or not available,
  admit it
• I dont know can actually build credibility
• Provide as much information as possible
• Demands for 100 certainty are more likely based
  on underlying values and process, not the
  science. Try to identify the real concerns behind
  the demand
• Understand the Public Perceptions of Risk
• Key barrier is the term risk how it is
  measured, described, and ultimately received
• People do not believe that risks are of the same
  type, size or importance
• Perception of risk for the technical and lay
  audiences are often dissimilar
• US HHS 2002 Communicating in a Crisis Risk
  Communication Guidelines for Public Officials

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Conclusion if risk communication is successful

• Institutional and interpersonal trust could be
  increased
• Controversies could be reduced in length,
  strength or frequency
• Frequency or magnitude of lawsuits could be
  reduced
• Programmatic success could become more achievable

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Outline of Todays Presentation

• Background on Project Prometheus
• A Short Tutorial on Risk Perception and
  Communication
• Implementing a Managed Approach to Risk
  Communication

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Why is NASA Doing This?

• Public attitudes toward NASAs use of space
  nuclear power have changed
• Pre-Challenger few concerns, NASAs safety
  record unquestioned
• Post-Challenger issues over shuttle safety
  included concerns about RPS
• Galileo, Ulysses and Cassini faced media,
  Congressional, and public opposition
• Opposition increased with each mission
• Lawsuits filed to stop launches and Earth
  swingbys
• Letters to White House and Congress, local
  editorials, local political actions,
  international actions
• NASA forced to spend increasing resources
• Sources Sandra Dawson, NASA JPL, Risk
  Communication Coordinator,
• Victoria Friedensen, Protesting SpaceA Study of
  Technology Choice,
• Perception of Risk, and Space Exploration

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Why Bother?

• Risk communication, if done right, with a
  coordinated message and proactive public
  engagement, can
• Increase NASAs understanding of what the issues
  and concerns are or might be
• Reduce misinformation and possible resulting
  concern
• Increase trust among the public, media, and
  local/state/national governments

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A Managed Approach to Risk Communication

• NASA OSS is instituting a set of long-range plans
  that will bring risk communication strategies to
  mission and program planning
• OSS has plans that are either approved or in
  review that encompass nuclear power for
  spacecraft and planetary protection
• OSS as a whole
• Mars Exploration Program
• New Horizons mission
• Project Prometheus
• Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter
• Project Prometheus is implementing a three-fold
  approach
• Risk communication
• Public engagement
• Education and public outreach
• The goals of these plans are to increase public
  opportunity to learn, reduce controversy, and
  increase trust

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Project Prometheus Early Risk Communication
Focus

• Two major areas of prevention
• Saying the wrong thing
• Legal risks
• NEPA and decision making
• Out of context quotes, misstatements
• Bad press can be misquoted, sound uninformed,
  appear to be lying, etc.
• Not communicating
• Lack of concern perception of arrogance, not
  clear, not enough information
• Attention to these areas can reduce perception of
  risk
• Source Sandra Dawson, NASA JPL, Risk
  Communication Coordinator

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Risk Communication Goals for Project Prometheus

• Ensure clear, consistent, open, accountable,
  quality, communication processes and products by
  providing training and skills development for
  NASA, DOE, and contractor personnel
• Enable extended, inclusive engagement with
  stakeholders the scientific community,
  environmental and other public interest groups,
  Congress, Federal Agencies, the media, and the
  public
• Develop and expand communications products and
  processes to enable public access, public
  engagement and inclusive communications
  processes, such as internet websites, stakeholder
  meetings, public fora, and other opportunities to
  engage the interest of the public

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Conclusion

• Project Prometheus will enable a new paradigm in
  the scientific exploration of the Solar System
• The proposed JIMO mission will start a new
  generation of missions characterized by more
  maneuverability, flexibility, power and lifetime
• Project Prometheus organization is established at
  NASA Headquarters where
• Risk Communication, Public Engagement, and
  Education and Outreach are considered integral
  parts of Project Prometheus, and like safety, are
  being designed into the program from the
  beginning
• Risk Communication will become an Agency-wide
  function, with training and support provided for
  all Project Prometheus teams

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we flew to
Mars electrically. Werner von Braun, 1947