The Three Gulf Wars

1
The Three Gulf Wars

• The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988
• The Expulsion of Iraq from Kuwait
• The Regime Change

2
Before the Iran-Iraq War

• In the years after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War
  Iran, under the Shah, was a US ally while Iraq
  was in the Soviet camp
• Iran kept an eye on the USSR OPEC
• Iraq bought arms from the USSR
• Major changes in 1979
• Saddam Hussein the Ayatollah Khomeini gained
  power in Iraq Iran, respectively
• The Soviet army rolled into Afghanistan

3
The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988

• In 1980, Iraq broke the Baghdad Pact, invading
  Iran, expecting an easy victory, finding more
  resistance than expected
• In 1981, Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear plant
• In 1984, the USA, fearing victory by Iran,
  renewed diplomatic relations with Iraq
• The USA armed trained the Iraqi army
• Finally, stalemate in 1988

4
Impact on Saddam of US Aid

• Transformed Saddam into a much stronger, even
  more ruthless leader
• Baathist power solidified, cult of the
  personality strengthened
• The US had a hard time convincing Saddam to
  engage Iran in the final battles that secured a
  drawand a ceasefire
• In short, we contributed enormously to the
  creation of a nightmare

5
US Focus Remained on Iran

• After the Iran-Iraq War, the US continued to
  focus on Iran rather than Iraq
• Despite Saddams massacre of 5000 in Halabja
  3/17/88
• Despite growing power of moderates in Iran
• Operation Stanch stop the flow of Iran
• Around the Gulf to the other oil countries
• Toward Israel

6
Status of Kuwait

• 1899 agreement with Britain
• 1913 boundary with Iraq defined by Anglo-Turkish
  Convention
• 1938 oil discovered
• 1976 government assumes control over oil
• Monarchy with several levels of citizenship
• Tight economic controls
• 1990 April Glaspie The US has no interest in
  Iraqs claim that Kuwait is part of Iraq

7
Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait

• Great celebrations among some Arabs, but not the
  other oil-producing countries
• Fear over the safety of Israel
• Fear over the global supply of petroleum
• Commitment to reverse a clear violation of
  international law
• Unanimous Security Council support for forcing
  Iraq out of Kuwait

8
Desert Shield to Desert Storm

• In the fall of 1990 a global force gathered to
  quarantine Iraq and if necessary evict Iraq from
  Kuwait
• Iraq essentially capitulated but with
  considerable casualties, retreating
• Allied forces stopped short of Baghdad, having
  achieved their official objectives
• Security Council extracts acquiescence from Iraq,
  imposing sanctions until conditions met

9
Iraqi Uprisings

• Global forces encouraged Iraqi uprisings
• Kurds rose up in the north, Shia Arabs in the
  south but not supported externally
• No fly zones established
• Sanctions imposed
• Food for oil program initiated
• Saddam remained deeply entrenched
• Civilians suffered miserably

10
Meanwhile in Afghanistan . . .

• Tradition of fiercely guarded independence
• A pro-Soviet government, facing serious
  resistance, invited the USSR to provide
  military assistance
• The USSR rolled into Afghanistan late in December
  of 1979
• Resistance was serious
• Resistance was aided by the US
• Pakistan cooperated

11
Emergence of the Taliban

• 2 million Afghan refugees, mainly in Pakistan
• Madrassas (Islamic schools) funded by the Saudis
  in refugee camps
• The Taliban (students) became a major military
  force, eventually controlling most of the country
• Al Qaeda emerged as a military force against the
  USSR, worked with the Taliban
• Repressive regime with a puritanical
  interpretation of Islam, oppression of women

12
Emergence of Al Qaeda

• Well funded, well armed, led by a charismatic
  leader, Al Qaeda became a major force for change
  for disaffected Muslims, particularly Saudis
• Goals
• End to sanctions against Iraq
• USA out of Saudi Arabia
• End of US support for the Saudi royal family

13
Al Qaeda Operations

• Willing to use violent means to punish the US and
  other enemies
• 1993 truck explosion in the basement of the World
  Trade Center
• 1998 attacks on US embassies in East Africa
• Many attacks against India
• The 9/11 attack

14
Requirements for a Just War

• Just cause
• Right intention
• Proper authority public declaration
• Last resort
• Probability of success
• Proportionality
• Just peace

15
War against the Taliban

• Given support of Al Qaeda, a just cause
• If the intention was to remove Al Qaeda
  establish just rule, the intention was just
• Unprovoked attack provided the moral authority
• Last resort?
• Virtually certain success at removing the Taliban
• Proportional to the attack on the US
• Follow through with a just peace? Not yet

16
The Third Gulf War

• New principle in International Law
• Pre-emptive War The Bush Doctrine
• Bush, Blair justification for attacking Iraq
• Implicated in The Attack on America
• Imminent threat to the region world
• Need to free the people of Iraq
• Opposition to the rush to war
• Unwillingness to wait to gain UN support
• Opening Pandoras Box

17
Is the 3rd Gulf War Just?

• Just Cause
• Not part of the attack on America, not an
  imminent threat, certainly a vile regime
• Right Intention
• Why concentrate on Saddam when bin Laden is still
  loose? What if any part does oil play?
• Proper Authority
• Undercut international law by impatience with UN

18
Justice of the 3rd Gulf War (cont)

• Last Resort
• What was the big hurry?
• Probability of Success
• Removing Saddam was the easy part
• Establishing rule of law is more difficult
• Proportionality
• Compared to other tyrants?
• Just Peace

19
Just Peace for the Middle East

• Given our willingness to go to war to change the
  Iraqi regime, we have an opportunity to change
  the facts on the ground
• If we could establish a genuinely democratic
  government we could change the region
• How many countries should there be in Iraq?
• How can security justice be provided?
• Are we in more or less jeopardy?
• How will our actions now affect our jeopardy?