REGIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL

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REGIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL

• TRADITIONAL FOUR STEP MODEL

Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode
Choice Trip Assignment

• IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW MODE
• CHOICE MODELS

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NEW RESIDENT MODE CHOICE MODEL

• C ALIBRATION
• Household Travel Behavior Survey-Fall 1998
• On-Board Bus Survey Fall 1996
• Memphis Downtown Trolley Survey June 2001
• VALIDATION
• Comparison of Actual vs. Model Boardings

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VALIDATION OF 1995 TRANSIT BOARDINGS

• COMPARISON OF ACTUAL VS. MODEL ESTIMATED TRANSIT
  BOARDINGS
• Underestimated By 2
• By Route Not as Good

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1995 VALIDATION RESULTS
Boardings
60,000
50,000
40,000
24196
MODEL
24789
MATA
30,000
20,000
27195
22729
10,000
0
Peak
Off-peak
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VISITOR MODEL

• Background
• Represents travel between hotels and tourist
  attractions made by visitors to the Memphis
  Region
• Attendance data at Key Attractions provided by
  Chamber of Commerce and other sources
• Hotel room inventory provided by Chamber of
  Commerce

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VISITOR ATTRACTIONS
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AIR PASSENGER MODEL

• Background
• Represents travel to and from Memphis
  International Airport made by Air Passengers
• Separately models travel by resident air
  passengers and visitor air passengers

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Air Passenger Model

• Visitor Model
• Produces/distributes trips based on the number of
  hotel rooms in each TAZ
• Considers the following modes
• Auto
• Public Bus
• Light Rail (not present in base year)
• MATA Shuttle Bus
• Taxi

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Air Passenger Model

• Resident Model
• Produces/distributes trips based on the number of
  households in each Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)
• Considers the following modes
• Auto
• Public Bus
• Light Rail (not present in base year)
• Taxi

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FedEx Employee Distribution

• Observed and Estimated Comparison

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FedEx Observed Distribution
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FedEx 1995 Estd Distribution
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FedEx 2020 Estd Distribution
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DESCRIPTION OF ALTERNATIVES

• Bus Routes
• Rail Lines
• Park-n-Ride Lots

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Alternative 1
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PRELIMINARY RIDERSHIP FORECASTS

• Resident
• Visitor
• Air Passenger
• Resident
• Visitors

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RESIDENT FORECASTS
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DAILY AIRPORT TRIPS BY RESIDENTS
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DAILY AIRPORT TRIPS BY VISITORS
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DAILY HOTEL BASED VISITORS TRIPS
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Visitor Model

• Decision Process
• (1) Trip or No Trip
• Visitors decide whether or not they will visit an
  attraction on a given day. They may choose to
  visit each of the attractions, they may choose to
  visit none. Each attraction is viewed
  independently.
• (2) Mode Choice
• Available modes Public Bus, Trolley, Auto, or
  Taxi

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Visitor Model

• Future year attendance
• Assume no increase in Hotel rooms
• Increase in attendance is due to the changes in
  accessibility of the attraction
• For example, if a direct light rail line is added
  between the Peabody Hotel and Graceland, the
  model will predict an increase in attendance at
  Graceland.