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Title: Company Presentation


1
Introduction to Macro and Micro Economics
Dr. Khaled Fouad Sherif Chief Financial
Officer The World Bank Group
2
What is Economics?
  • The social science that studies how agents
    allocate scarce resources amongst alternatives to
    meet unlimited human wants
  • Fundamental Economic Problem Resource allocation
  • Conflicting goals of unlimited wants and resource
    scarcity implies need to make choices regarding
    allocation
  • Three basic questions
  • What and how much to produce
  • How to produce
  • How to distribute goods and services amongst
    individuals and groups

3
Approaches to Economics
  • Positive Economics
  • Examines how decisions are made and the
    consequences of such decisions
  • Descriptive process exploring the process of
    decision making and its impacts
  • Normative Economics
  • Examines how resources should be allocated
  • Prescriptive process analyzing what should be done

4
Allocation of Resources
  • Process occurs at many levels
  • Consumers
  • Firms
  • Government
  • Market System
  • Allocation decisions impact natural environment
  • Want decisions to be based upon incentives that
    reflect true value to society
  • Unfortunately decision makers due not consider
    true value in choices
  • Need for policy intervention to overcome such
    market failure

5
Contemporary (Neoclassical) Economics
  • Macroeconomics Aggregated analysis
  • John Maynard Keynes in 1936 and 1940
  • Choices of government
  • Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve
  • Fiscal Policy Taxes and Spending
  • Macroeconomic targets
  • Income Levels
  • Inflation
  • Employment

6
Contemporary (Neoclassical) Economics
  • Microeconomics Disaggregated analysis
  • Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations in 1776
  • Choices of consumers (households) and producers
    (firms)
  • Two types of Markets
  • Factor Markets Consumers sell inputs used in
    production to firms
  • Product Markets Firms sell final output to
    consumers
  • Three types of analysis
  • Partial Equilibrium Focus on single factor or
    good
  • Multi-Market Interrelationships amongst key
    fundamental markets
  • General Equilibrium Economy as a whole

7
Basic Economic Model (Paradigm)
  • Households provide factors of production to firms
  • Capital, Labor, Natural Resources, and
    Entrepreneurship
  • Firms make payments for factors of production to
    households
  • Interest, Wages, Rents, Profits
  • Households demand (purchase) goods and services
    from firms
  • Firms produce goods and services by transforming
    inputs into output
  • Firms receive payments for goods and services
    from households
  • Payments received represent the value of the
    factors used in production process

8
Economic Theory of Value
  • Value is reflected in prices determined through
    interaction of supply and demand
  • Supply (demand) reflects trade-offs firms
    (consumers) make when producing (buying) goods
    and services
  • Abundance implies lower prices
  • Scarcity implies higher prices
  • Conceptually market forces reflect true value
    to society, but there are reasons why markets may
    fail
  • Externalities
  • Public Goods
  • Property Rights

9
Introduction and Review
1. What is microeconomics how are economic
models constructed? 2. Buyers, Sellers, Markets
10
Whats the difference between Microeconomics
Macroeconomics?
  • Microeconomics examines small economic units, the
    components of the economy.
  • For example individuals, households, firms,
    industries
  • Macroeconomics looks at aggregates.
  • For example national output, overall price
    level, aggregate unemployment

11
Questions relevant to all economies,
market-oriented or not
  • What goods services should be produced and how
    much?
  • How should the goods services be produced?
  • Who gets the goods services?
  • How do changes in the production distribution
    mixes take place?

12
In a market economy, these questions are handled
by the market.
  • What how much to produce
  • Determined by demand supply conditions,
    individual choices, pursuit of profit.
  • How to produce
  • Determined by technology resource costs.
  • Distribution
  • Based on ability willingness to pay the price.
  • What if consumer wants or technology change?
  • Those changes alter demand supply, which
    changes prices, profits, consequently output
    levels distribution.

13
The Circular Flow
Product Markets
money to pay for goods services
goods services
Households Resource Owners
Firms
labor other resources
resource payments such as wages, rents, interest
Resource or Factor Markets
14
The Market Supply and Demand
15
What is the law of demand?
  • The lower the price of a good, the larger the
    quantity consumers will buy.
  • So the demand curve slopes downward from left to
    right.

16
What is the difference between demand quantity
demanded?
  • Demand is the entire curve that shows the
    relation between price quantity purchased.
  • Quantity demanded is one particular quantity on
    the demand curve.

17
Example Apple Market
18
What factors change demand (that is, shift the
entire curve)?
  • Consumer income
  • Prices of substitutes and complements
  • Tastes
  • Consumer expectations

19
Example Apple Market
20
What makes the quantity demanded of apples change?
  • In other words, what causes a movement along the
    demand curve for apples?
  • A change in the price of apples.
  • Thats it, only a change in the price of apples.

21
Example Apple Market
22
What is the law of supply?
  • The higher the price of a good, the larger the
    quantity firms will be willing to produce and
    sell.
  • So the supply curve slopes upward from left to
    right.

23
What is the difference between supply quantity
supplied?
  • Supply is the entire curve that shows the
    relation between price quantity provided.
  • Quantity supplied is one particular quantity on
    the supply curve.

24
Example Apple Market
25
What factors change supply (that is, shift the
entire curve)?
  • Technology
  • Prices of inputs (for example land, labor,
    machinery, raw materials)
  • Weather (in the case of agriculture)

26
Example Apple Market
27
What makes the quantity supplied of apples change?
  • What causes a movement along the supply curve for
    apples?
  • Just a change in the price of apples.

28
Example Apple Market
29
What is equilibrium?
  • It is a state of balance, where there is no
    tendency for things to change.

30
Equilibrium occurs where the quantity demanded
equals the quantity supplied, which is at the
intersection of the supply and demand curves.
31
Example Apple Market
32
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33
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34
Example Cigarette Market
  • Suppose that the surgeon general comes out with
    stronger health warnings.
  • That will reduce the demand for cigarettes.
  • Simultaneously, there is a year of bad weather.
  • That decreases the supply of cigarettes.

35
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36
Elasticity
37
Elasticity measures
  • What are they?
  • Responsiveness measures
  • Why introduce them?
  • Demand and supply responsiveness clearly matters
    for lots of market analyses.
  • Why not just look at slope?
  • Want to compare across markets inter market
  • Want to compare within markets intra market
  • slope can be misleading
  • want a unit free measure

38
Why Economists Use Elasticity
  • An elasticity is a unit-free measure.
  • By comparing markets using elasticities it does
    not matter how we measure the price or the
    quantity in the two markets.
  • Elasticities allow economists to quantify the
    differences among markets without standardizing
    the units of measurement.

39
What is an Elasticity?
  • Measurement of the percentage change in one
    variable that results from a 1 change in another
    variable.
  • Can come up with many elasticities.
  • We will introduce four.
  • three from the demand function
  • one from the supply function

40
2 VIP Elasticities
  • Price elasticity of demand how sensitive is the
    quantity demanded to a change in the price of the
    good.
  • Price elasticity of supply how sensitive is the
    quantity supplied to a change in the price of the
    good.
  • Often referred to as own price elasticities.

41
Examples of Own Price Demand Elasticities
  • When the price of gasoline rises by 1 the
    quantity demanded falls by 0.2, so gasoline
    demand is not very price sensitive.
  • Price elasticity of demand is -0.2 .
  • When the price of gold jewelry rises by 1 the
    quantity demanded falls by 2.6, so jewelry
    demand is very price sensitive.
  • Price elasticity of demand is -2.6 .

42
Examples of Own PriceSupply Elasticities
  • When the price of DaVinci paintings increases by
    1 the quantity supplied doesnt change at all,
    so the quantity supplied of DaVinci paintings is
    completely insensitive to the price.
  • Price elasticity of supply is 0.
  • When the price of beef increases by 1 the
    quantity supplied increases by 5, so beef supply
    is very price sensitive.
  • Price elasticity of supply is 5.

43
Examples of Unit-free Comparisons
  • Gasoline and jewelry
  • It doesnt matter that gas is sold by the gallon
    for about 1.09 and gold is sold by the ounce for
    about 290.
  • We compare the demand elasticities of -0.2 (gas)
    and -2.6 (gold jewelry).
  • Gold jewelry demand is more price sensitive.

44
Examples of Unit-free Comparisons
  • Paintings and meat
  • It doesnt matter that classical paintings are
    sold by the canvas for millions of dollars each
    while beef is sold by the pound for about 1.50.
  • We compare the supply elasticities of 0
    (classical paintings) and 5 (beef).
  • Beef supply is more price sensitive.

45
Inelastic Economic Relations
  • When an elasticity is small (between 0 and 1 in
    absolute value), we call the relation that it
    describes inelastic.
  • Inelastic demand means that the quantity demanded
    is not very sensitive to the price.
  • Inelastic supply means that the quantity supplied
    is not very sensitive to the price.

46
Elastic Economic Relations
  • When an elasticity is large (greater than 1 in
    absolute value), we call the relation that it
    describes elastic.
  • Elastic demand means that the quantity demanded
    is sensitive to the price.
  • Elastic supply means that the quantity supplied
    is sensitive to the price.

47
Size of Price Elasticities
Unit elastic
Inelastic
Elastic
  • Unit elastic own price elasticity equal to 1
  • Inelastic own price elasticity less than 1
  • Elastic own price elasticity greater than 1

48
General Formula for own price elasticity of demand
  • P Current price of good X
  • XD Quantity demanded at that price
  • DP Small change in the current price
  • DXD Resulting change in quantity demanded

49
Note
  • The own price elasticity of demand is always
    negative.
  • Economists usually refer to the own price
    elasticity of demand by its absolute value
    (ignore the negative sign).
  • So, even though the formula says that the own
    price elasticity of demand is negative, we would
    say the elasticity of demand is 1.5 in the first
    example and 0.67 in the second.

50
Supply Elasticities
  • The price elasticity of supply is always
    positive.
  • Economists refer to the price elasticity of
    supply by its actual value.
  • Exactly the same type of point and arc formulas
    are used to compute and estimate supply
    elasticities as for demand elasticities.

51
Some Technical Definitions For Extreme Elasticity
Values
  • Economists use the terms perfectly elastic and
    perfectly inelastic to describe extreme values
    of price elasticities.
  • Perfectly elastic means the quantity (demanded or
    supplied) is as price sensitive as possible.
  • Perfectly inelastic means that the quantity
    (demanded or supplied) has no price sensitivity
    at all.

52
Perfectly Elastic Demand
  • We say that demand is perfectly elastic when a 1
    change in the price would result in an infinite
    change in quantity demanded.

53
Perfectly Inelastic Demand
  • We say that demand is perfectly inelastic when a
    1 change in the price would result in no change
    in quantity demanded.

54
Perfectly Elastic Supply
  • We say that supply is perfectly elastic when a 1
    change in the price would result in an infinite
    change in quantity supplied.

55
Perfectly Inelastic Supply
  • We say that supply is perfectly inelastic when a
    1 change in the price would result in no change
    in quantity supplied.

56
Determinants of elasticity
  • What is a major determinant of the own price
    elasticity of demand?
  • Availability of substitutes in consumption.
  • What is a major determinant of the own price
    elasticity of supply?
  • Availability of alternatives in production.

57
Reminders
  • Value of own price elasticity usually changes
    along a demand curve
  • There are many interesting intra elasticity
    applications
  • Can also compare elasticities across markets
  • There are interesting inter elasticity questions

58
Using Demand Elasticity Total Expenditures
  • Do the total expenditures on a product go up or
    down when the price increases?
  • The price increase means more spent for each
    unit.
  • But, quantity demanded declines as price rises.
  • So, we must measure the measure the price
    elasticity of demand to answer the question.

59
Bridge Toll Example
  • Current toll for the George Washington Bridge is
    2.00/trip.
  • Suppose the quantity demanded at 2.00/trip is
    100,000 trips/hour.
  • If the price elasticity of demand for bridge
    trips is 2.0, what is the effect of a 10 toll
    increase?

60
Bridge Toll Elastic Demand
  • Price elasticity of demand 2.0
  • Toll increase of 10 implies a 20 decline in the
    quantity demanded.
  • Trips fall to 80,000/hour.
  • Total expenditure falls to 176,000/hour (
    80,000 x 2.20).
  • 176,000 lt 200,000, the revenue from a 2.00
    toll.

61
Bridge Toll Example, Part 2
  • Now suppose the elasticity of demand for bridge
    trips is 0.5.
  • How would the number of trips and the expenditure
    on tolls be affected by a 10 increase in the
    toll?

62
Bridge Toll Inelastic Demand
  • Price elasticity of demand 0.5
  • Toll increase of 10 implies a 5 decline in the
    quantity demanded.
  • Trips fall to 95,000/hour.
  • Total expenditure rises to 209,000/hour (
    95,000 x 2.20).
  • 209,000 gt 200,000, the revenue from a 2.00
    toll.

63
Elasticity and Total Expenditures
  • A price increase will increase total expenditures
    if, and only if, the price elasticity of demand
    is less than 1 in absolute value (between -1 and
    zero)
  • Inelastic demand
  • A price reduction will increase total
    expenditures if, and only if, the price
    elasticity of demand is greater than 1 in
    absolute value (less than -1).
  • Elastic demand

64
Elasticity and Total Expenditure (Graph)
  • At the point M, the demand curve is unit elastic.
    M is the midpoint of this linear demand curve
  • Above M, demand is elastic, so total expenditure
    falls as the price rises
  • Below M, demand is inelastic. so total
    expenditure falls as price falls.
  • Total expenditure is maximized at the point M,
    where the elasticity 1.

65
Two real world examples
  • Gas taxes in Washington DC
  • Vanity plates in Virginia

66
Other Price Elasticities Cross- Price Elasticity
of Demand
  • Elasticity of demand with respect to the price of
    a complementary good (cross-price elasticity)
  • This elasticity is negative because as the price
    of a complementary good rises, the quantity
    demanded of the good itself falls.
  • Example software is complementary with computers.
    When the price of software rises the quantity
    demanded of computers falls.
  • Cross-price elasticity quantifies this effect.

67
Other Price Elasticities Cross Price Elasticity
of Demand
  • Elasticity of demand with respect to the price of
    a substitute good (also a cross-price elasticity)
  • This elasticity is positive because as the price
    of a substitute good rises, the quantity demanded
    of the good itself rises.
  • Example soccer is a substitute for basketball.
    When the price of soccer tickets rises the
    quantity demanded of basketball tickets rises.
  • Cross-price elasticity quantifies this effect.

68
Other Elasticities Income Elasticity of Demand
  • The elasticity of demand with respect to a
    consumers income is called the income
    elasticity.
  • When the income elasticity of demand is positive
    (normal good), consumers increase their purchases
    of the good as their incomes rise (e.g.
    automobiles, clothing).
  • When the income elasticity of demand is greater
    than 1 (luxury good), consumers increase their
    purchases of the good more than proportionate to
    the income increase (e.g. ski vacations).
  • When the income elasticity of demand is negative
    (inferior good), consumers reduce their purchases
    of the good as their incomes rise (e.g. potatoes).

69
Introduction to Macroeconomics
70
Introduction to Macroeconomics
  • Microeconomics examines the behavior of
    individual decision-making unitsbusiness firms
    and households.
  • Macroeconomics deals with the economy as a whole
    it examines the behavior of economic aggregates
    such as aggregate income, consumption,
    investment, and the overall level of prices.
  • Aggregate behavior refers to the behavior of all
    households and firms together.

71
Introduction to Macroeconomics
  • Microeconomists generally conclude that markets
    work well. Macroeconomists, however, observe
    that some important prices often seem sticky.
  • Sticky prices are prices that do not always
    adjust rapidly to maintain the equality between
    quantity supplied and quantity demanded.

72
Introduction to Macroeconomics
  • Macroeconomists often reflect on the
    microeconomic principles underlying macroeconomic
    analysis, or the microeconomic foundations of
    macroeconomics.

73
The Roots of Macroeconomics
  • The Great Depression was a period of severe
    economic contraction and high unemployment that
    began in 1929 and continued throughout the 1930s.

74
The Roots of Macroeconomics
  • Classical economists applied microeconomic
    models, or market clearing models, to
    economy-wide problems.
  • However, simple classical models failed to
    explain the prolonged existence of high
    unemployment during the Great Depression. This
    provided the impetus for the development of
    macroeconomics.

75
The Roots of Macroeconomics
  • In 1936, John Maynard Keynes published The
    General Theory of Employment, Interest, and
    Money.
  • Keynes believed governments could intervene in
    the economy and affect the level of output and
    employment.
  • During periods of low private demand, the
    government can stimulate aggregate demand to lift
    the economy out of recession.

76
Recent Macroeconomic History
  • Fine-tuning was the phrase used by Walter Heller
    to refer to the governments role in regulating
    inflation and unemployment.
  • The use of Keynesian policy to fine-tune the
    economy in the 1960s, led to disillusionment in
    the 1970s and early 1980s.

77
Recent Macroeconomic History
  • Stagflation occurs when the overall price level
    rises rapidly (inflation) during periods of
    recession or high and persistent unemployment
    (stagnation).

78
Macroeconomic Concerns
  • Three of the major concerns of macroeconomics
    are
  • Inflation
  • Output growth
  • Unemployment

79
Inflation and Deflation
  • Inflation is an increase in the overall price
    level.
  • Hyperinflation is a period of very rapid
    increases in the overall price level.
    Hyperinflations are rare, but have been used to
    study the costs and consequences of even moderate
    inflation.
  • Deflation is a decrease in the overall price
    level. Prolonged periods of deflation can be just
    as damaging for the economy as sustained
    inflation.

80
Output GrowthShort Run and Long Run
  • The business cycle is the cycle of short-term ups
    and downs in the economy.
  • The main measure of how an economy is doing is
    aggregate output
  • Aggregate output is the total quantity of goods
    and services produced in an economy in a given
    period.

81
Output GrowthShort Run and Long Run
  • A recession is a period during which aggregate
    output declines. Two consecutive quarters of
    decrease in output signal a recession.
  • A prolonged and deep recession becomes a
    depression.
  • Policy makers attempt not only to smooth
    fluctuations in output during a business cycle
    but also to increase the growth rate of output in
    the long-run.

82
Unemployment
  • The unemployment rate is the percentage of the
    labor force that is unemployed.
  • The unemployment rate is a key indicator of the
    economys health.
  • The existence of unemployment seems to imply that
    the aggregate labor market is not in equilibrium.
    Why do labor markets not clear when other
    markets do?

83
Government in the Macroeconomy
  • There are three kinds of policy that the
    government has used to influence the
    macroeconomy
  • Fiscal policy
  • Monetary policy
  • Growth or supply-side policies

84
Government in the Macroeconomy
  • Fiscal policy refers to government policies
    concerning taxes and spending.
  • Monetary policy consists of tools used by the
    Federal Reserve to control the quantity of money
    in the economy.
  • Growth policies are government policies that
    focus on stimulating aggregate supply instead of
    aggregate demand.

85
The Components ofthe Macroeconomy
  • The circular flow diagram shows the income
    received and payments made by each sector of the
    economy.

86
The Components ofthe Macroeconomy
  • Everyones expenditure is someone elses receipt.
    Every transaction must have two sides.

87
The Components ofthe Macroeconomy
  • Transfer payments are payments made by the
    government to people who do not supply goods,
    services, or labor in exchange for these payments.

88
The Three Market Arenas
  • Households, firms, the government, and the rest
    of the world all interact in three different
    market arenas
  • Goods-and-services market
  • Labor market
  • Money (financial) market

89
The Three Market Arenas
  • Households and the government purchase goods and
    services (demand) from firms in the goods-and
    services market, and firms supply to the goods
    and services market.
  • In the labor market, firms and government
    purchase (demand) labor from households (supply).
  • The total supply of labor in the economy depends
    on the sum of decisions made by households.

90
The Three Market Arenas
  • In the money marketsometimes called the
    financial markethouseholds purchase stocks and
    bonds from firms.
  • Households supply funds to this market in the
    expectation of earning income, and also demand
    (borrow) funds from this market.
  • Firms, government, and the rest of the world also
    engage in borrowing and lending, coordinated by
    financial institutions.

91
Financial Instruments
  • Treasury bonds, notes, and bills are promissory
    notes issued by the federal government when it
    borrows money.
  • Corporate bonds are promissory notes issued by
    corporations when they borrow money.

92
Financial Instruments
  • Shares of stock are financial instruments that
    give to the holder a share in the firms
    ownership and therefore the right to share in the
    firms profits.
  • Dividends are the portion of a corporations
    profits that the firm pays out each period to its
    shareholders.

93
The Methodology of Macroeconomics
  • Connections to microeconomics
  • Macroeconomic behavior is the sum of all the
    microeconomic decisions made by individual
    households and firms. We cannot understand the
    former without some knowledge of the factors that
    influence the latter.

94
Aggregate Supply andAggregate Demand
  • Aggregate demand is the total demand for goods
    and services in an economy.
  • Aggregate supply is the total supply of goods and
    services in an economy.
  • Aggregate supply and demand curves are more
    complex than simple market supply and demand
    curves.

95
Expansion and ContractionThe Business Cycle
  • An expansion, or boom, is the period in the
    business cycle from a trough up to a peak, during
    which output and employment rise.
  • A contraction, recession, or slump is the period
    in the business cycle from a peak down to a
    trough, during which output and employment fall.

96
Fiscal Policy The Basics
97
How big is the Government?
  • To see how big of a role the government plays in
    the economy we need to see what percentage of the
    GDP is represented by the government sector
  • United States Government plays a smaller role
    compared to other countries
  • But it still plays a big role!

98
Fiscal Policy The Basics
99
Remember the Flow!
  • Funds flow into the government in the form of
  • Taxes
  • Borrowing
  • Funds flow out
  • Spending (purchases)
  • Transfer payment

100
An Expanded Circular-Flow Diagram The Flows of
Money Throughthe Economy
101
Sources of Tax Revenue in theUnited States, 2004
102
Government Spending in theUnited States, 2004
Social insurance programs are government programs
intended to protect families against economic
hardship.
103
The Government Budget and Total Spending
  • Fiscal policy is the use of taxes, government
    transfers, or government purchases of goods and
    services to shift the aggregate demand curve.

104
Change a Variable
  • Change a variable
  • Shift the Curve

105
Government Budget Total Spending
  • Government directly controls one of the variables
    in GDP
  • GDP C I X - IM

G
106
Consumer Spending and Taxes
  • Taxes affect Consumer spending
  • Disposable Income Total Income Transfer
    payment - Taxes
  • A fall in the Disposable Income leads to a fall
    in Consumption
  • An Increase in the Disposable Income leads to an
    increase in Consumption

107
Why?
  • Why would the government want to shift the
    Aggregate demand curve?

108
Expansionary Fiscal PolicyExpansionary Fiscal
Policy Can Close a Recessionary Gap
Expansionary fiscal policy increases aggregate
demand.
Recessionary gap
109
Why?
  • Why would the government want to shift the
    Aggregate demand curve inward and shrink
    everyones income?

110
Contractionary Fiscal PolicyContractionary
Fiscal Policy Can Eliminate an Inflationary Gap
Contractionary fiscal policy decreases aggregate
demand.
Inflationary gap
111
Lags in Fiscal Policy
  • In the case of fiscal policy, there is an
    important reason for caution there are
    significant lags in its use.
  • Realize the recessionary/inflationary gap by
    collecting and analyzing economic data ? takes
    time
  • Government develops an action plan? takes time
  • Implementation of the action plan ? takes time

112
Monetary Policy
  • The Basics of Money, Interest, and Banking

113
Money Definition
  • Simple Definition An article of faith that
    guides transactions

114
Money Definition
  • Formal Definition Money is anything that meets
    the following four criteria
  • Debt Settlement (accepted to pay off loan)
  • Medium of Exchange (accepted to buy goods and
    services)
  • Store of Value (can be held for future purchases)
  • Unit of Account (can be used to compare prices
    and calculate opportunity costs)

115
Money Measures
  • Whether the Fed chooses to observe it or not,
    there are still two (technically three) primary
    measures of money
  • M1 Currency Notes Checking accounts
  • Highly Liquid
  • M2 M1 Savings Accounts Money Market Mutual
    Funds (which are similar to Savings Accounts)
    Short-Term, Small CDs.
  • Less Liquid
  • M3 M2 Long Term Time Deposits
  • Not Very Liquid not as important

116
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117
Money FYI
  • Most Money is book entry
  • Monetary Base or High Powered Money is currency
    notes, coins, and reserves.
  • Called High Powered because its the money
    directly controlled by the government!

118
Interest Rates Definition
  • The Cost/Price of Money
  • Long Term Interest Rates Price (in terms of what
    you give up) to acquire funds for major
    investment
  • Short Term Interest Rates Primarily is the price
    (in terms of what you give up) to hold money in
    pocket or spend it.

119
Interest Rates Types
  • There are numerous rates. Most important are
    probably
  • Prime Loan Rate (S.T.)
  • Fed Funds Rate (S.T.)
  • Mortgage Loan Rate (L.T.)
  • Though rates vary, all rates tend to move
    together

120
Banking Definition
  • Entity that transfers money from savers to
    investors (often called financial intermediaries)
  • Dont confuse economic investing with financial
    investing!
  • Banks are in business, not as a public service,
    but to make money
  • Primarily through interest profits (iloan
    iborrow/deposit)
  • This helps to explain why bond market is so
    influential

121
Banks and Bonds
  • Government Bonds are perfect substitutes for
    loans
  • ibond iloan,
  • bank indifferent
  • ibond gt iloan,
  • bank buys bond, rather than lend
  • ibond lt iloan,
  • bank lends, rather than buy bond

122
Banks and Bonds
  • This is why the market for T-bonds (govt bonds
    with maturities 10 years or more) influences the
    market for Long-Term Loans (Mortgages).
  • In contrast, the markets for T-notes (govt bonds
    with maturities of typically 2 to 10 years) and
    T-bills (govt bonds with maturities of 3 months,
    6 months, and 1 year) influence Short-Term Loans
    (buildup inventory, cover business expenses until
    customers pay, credit card debt).

123
Running a Bank
  • On a given day, a typical bank can and will
    engage in any of these transactions
  • Receive deposits from savers
  • Give loans to investors
  • Borrow money from other banks (through the
    Federal Funds market)
  • Lend money to other banks (through the Federal
    Funds market)
  • Borrow money directly from its district Federal
    Reserve Bank (through a Discount Loan)

124
Running a Bank
  • When you deposit 100 dollars at a bank, what
    happens?
  • Bank would love to lend all 100, but if it has
    checking accounts, then, by law, it must maintain
    some as reserve (either as vault cash or as a
    deposit at district Federal Reserve bank).
  • Currently, 0 for first 7 million of deposits
    3 for 7 million to 48 million and 10 for all
    deposits above 48 million.

125
Running a Bank
  • Lets assume a required reserve ratio of 10.
  • Therefore, our bank
  • Lends 70 to private households
  • Has 30 in reserves at end of day
  • What to do?
  • Keep 10
  • Lend other 20 overnight to another bank (who
    might have engaged in more lending that day).
  • Your bank gains interest, other bank keeps Fed
    off its back!
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