Why a Sense of Global Community is Needed to Survive the Coming World-wide Energy Crisis Peak oil, ecological carrying capacity, and the perilous phase transition to renewable energy sources.

1
Why a Sense of Global Communityis Needed to
Survive the Coming World-wide Energy Crisis Peak
oil, ecological carrying capacity, and the
perilous phase transition to renewable energy
sources.

• Presentation at the LMU Bellarmine Forum,
  November 7, 2005
• Dr. Michael Mills
• Psychology Department Loyola Marymount
  University

2
Some bad news, and some good news,about our
future

• The bad news (according to ecologists and
  population biologists)
• Thomas Malthus
• The population of a species increases
  geometrically
• But the carrying capacity of the environment is
  finite,
• Populations fluctuate between geometic growth and
  sudden die-offs
• Our species may be no exception.
• Carrying capacity of earth for humans is maybe 1
  - 2 billion people (?)
• And we are already have over 6 billion people
• The good news (according to cornucopian
  technologists)
• Ray Kurzweil
• Scientific knowledge, like populations, grows
  geometrically too
• May allow us solve problems of carrying capacity,
  cure disease and aging,
• Technology will help us overcome population
  overshoot and collapse.
• The outcome of the Malthusian / Kurzwilian
  grudge match
• More than just an academic exercise
• One of the two scenarios will likely occur
• within your generations (college students)
  lifetime.

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Overview of Presentation

• Part 1 The Coming Worldwide Energy Crisis
• The world is running out of cheap oil and other
  fossil fuels at a time when demand is increasing.
• Part A Malthusian Perspective Possible
  worldwide economic problems, societal collapses,
  wars, and even population die-offs.
• Part B Kurzweilian Perspective Technology will
  come to the rescue
• Part 2 Why a Sense of Global Communityis Needed
  to Survive the Coming World-wide Energy Crisis
• Declining energy results in what game theorists
  call a Negative-Sum Game
• This condition creates greater risks for social
  conflict and war.
• How can people of the world cooperate to survive
  the energy crisis?

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Part 1 The Coming Energy Crisis

• Part A The Malthusian Perspective

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We have become Oilcoholics.

• Oil Storm movie trailer
• FX Channel movie Oil Storm (June, 2005).
• Exemplifies our dangerous dependence on oil
• What would happen if our access to oil was
  interrupted?
• http//www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/oilstorm
  /main.html

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Oil Storm movie trailer
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Thomas MalthusAn Essay on the Principle of
Population

• "It is an obvious truth, which has been taken
  notice of by many writers,  that population must
  always be kept down to the level of the means of
  subsistence but no writer that the Author
  recollects has  inquired particularly into the
  means by which this level is effected..."  --
  Thomas Malthus, 1798 An Essay on the Principle of
  Population
• http//www.ac.wwu.edu/stephan/malthus/malthus.0.h
  tml 

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Population in a Petri dish(from
http//321energy.com/editorials/petch/petch070505.
html)
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Geometric rates of increase in a finite world
Source Dr. Albert Bartlett http//www.hawaii.go
v/dbedt/ert/symposium/bartlett/bartlett.html
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The Introduction, Increase and Crash of Reindeer
on St. Matthew Island, by David Klein

• 20 reindeer were introduced to St. Matthew Island
  in 1944
• Lots to eat, no predators
• Population exploded
• By 1963, the density of the reindeer on the
  island had reached 47 per square mile
• They ate all the lichens (their food) on the
  island
• In 1963, there was a die-off about 6,000
  reindeer starved to death
• http//dieoff.org/page80.htm

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The Introduction, Increase and Crash of Humans
on Easter Island

• A few humans arrived about 400 A.D.
• Population exploded to as many as 20,000
• They cut down trees to move the stone statues
• No trees no boats, no top soil
• About 1700 AD die off of up to 18,000 people
  due to starvation and cannibalism.
• Easter Island is Earth writ small Jared
  Diamond

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Imagine the world as a petri dish
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The Introduction, Increase and Crash of Humans
on Earth Island

• The essential energy resource to support
  industrial/technological civilization oil
• Sobering Fact There is no energy-equivalent
  substitute for oil,
• in terms of its advantages of energy density,
  transportability, range, safety and cost.
• Also, oil is used to make fertilizer to grow
  food, and in many everyday products (plastics,
  etc.)
• Oil has unique advantages for transportation
• Imagine trying to fly an airplane on a non-oil
  power source Wood? Coal? Electricity? Nuclear?
  Hydrogen?
• Problem like trees on Easter Island, oil is a
  finite resource. And, we are gradually running
  out

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Peak Oil Discoverer M. King Hubbert 1903-1989

• Shell Oil Geologist / Petroleum Scientist
• Highly qualified and intellectually courageous
• In 1954 he predicted that U.S. oil would peak
  about 1970
• Universally criticized at the time
• After 1970 he became highly respected
• In 1984 Hubbert predicted world peak oil in the
  early 2000s

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PEAK OIL When you plot the production of an
aggregate of oil fields over time you get roughly
a bell curve
Top of the curve
Mid point
2nd half
1st half
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USA Oil Peaked in 1970http//www.oilcrisis.com/de
/lecture.html
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Peaking Oil and Gas

• Iran peaked 1974
• Russia peaked 1987
• Saudi Arabia peak 2005?
• In 2005 natural gas production has peaked in
  North America," -- Exxon Chief Executive Lee
  Raymond (Reuters, June 21, 2005)

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Jean Laherrere, Estimates of Oil Reserves, paper
presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW meeting in
Laxenburg, Austria, June 19, 2001. http//www.iia
sa.ac.at/Research/ECS/IEW2001/pdffiles/Papers/Lahe
rrere-long.pdf
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Crude oil production by the world's largest
private oil companies is in decline as of first
half of 2005.
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How much time do we have left?
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Another related problemOil Demand-Production
Cross-Over

• Oil demand now exceeds supply.
• New sources of increased oil demand China and
  India
• Source http//money.cnn.com/2005/08/12/markets/oi
  l.reut/index.htm

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Oil demand expected to double in 25 years, while
oil reserves will be plummeting.
DOCUMENTARY "THE END OF SUBURBIA" SHOWING IN
OTTAWA

• Demand for oil is increasing, but oil production
  is decreasing.
• The red portion represents demand short fall.
• Result oil prices go through the roof starting
  in 2005

Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004
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If this is such a serious problem, why havent we
heard about it?

• Time horizons
• Business Annual Profits
• Government Next election (4 6 years)
• Media Dramatic headlines of current events
• People in general
• in ancestral environment, life span about 35
  years
• -- discount future events over current events
• Denial?
• Nothing like this has ever happened before
• Or, if it has (1970s oil shocks), problem quickly
  reversed
• Jiminy Cricket syndrome technology to the
  rescue!
• Loss Aversion invested in current
  infrastructure
• Dislike the idea of change, especially, reducing
  consumption.

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But the mass media (both fiction and
non-fiction) is starting to catch on

• "How to Kick the Oil Habit"
• Time Magazine, Oct. 23, 2005
• "If this explosion of (renewable energy)
  innovation has a problem, however, it may be
  that the developments are coming too late to
  allow a smooth transition to the postpetroleum
  era."

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Chevron TV ad.http//www.chevron.com/about/advert
ising/
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Chevron TV ad.
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Exxon Energy VideoSource http//exxonmobil.com/c
orporate/Campaign/Campaign_energychallenge_home.as
p
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Video Clip (fiction)

• Syrinia movie trailer
• Those who control oil, control the world.
• Increasing international conflict (resource
  wars) over the remaining, dwindling oil
  supplies.
• To be released in December, 2005.
• http//movies.yahoo.com/feature/syrianaqt.html

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Non-Fiction

• Article Outcome Grim at Oil War Game -- Former
  Officials Fail to Prevent Recession in Mock
  Energy Crisis
• By John Mintz, Washington Post Staff
  WriterFriday, June 24, 2005 Page A19
• The United States would be all but powerless to
  protect the American economy in the face of a
  catastrophic disruption of oil markets,
  high-level participants in a war game concluded
  yesterday.

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Declining oil production rising demand ever
rising gas prices

• Rising gas prices (hypothetical)
• 2005 2.60/gallon
• 2006 3.25/gallon?
• 2007 4.10/gallon?
• 2008 5.95/gallon?
• 2009 11.54/gallon?
• 2010 16.82/gallon?
• 2015 ???

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Peak Oil and Economic Effectshttp//www.theoil
drum.com/story/2005/8/24/161535/296comments
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Recent Quotes

• "We're all going to have to diversify away from
  hydrocarbons over time. -- President
  George W. Bush, April 19, 2005
• Doing nothing or doing too little too late will
  lead to a global economic and geopolitical
  tsunami with potentially devastating
  ramifications.
• -- U.S. Congressman Roscoe Bartlet.
  (2005)
• "Peaking (oil) will be catastrophic... We are
  about to drive the car over the cliff and say,
  Oh my God, What have we done? -- Robert
  L. Hirsch, US Dept. of Energy consultant, 2005.
• After you drive a car off a cliff, its too late
  to hit the brakes. In effect, we have gone over
  the edge of the cliff. -- Kenneth
  Deffeyes, author Beyond Oil

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Recent Quotes

• (Peak oil) is one of the biggest social and
  political challenges for this century.
• Robert K. Kaufmann, Professor, Center for
  Energy Environmental Studies, Boston
  University. (2005)
• Weve embarked on the beginning of the last days
  of the age of oil.
• Mike Bowlin, Chairman and CEO, ARCO, 1999 and
  Chairman, American Petroleum Institute (2005)
• My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son
  flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a
  camel. --Saudi adage
• Whether (a transition to renewable energy)
  will come in time to avoid an energy crunch
  depends in part on how high a priority we give
  energy research and development.
• Richard A. Kerr and Robert F. Service, Science,
  Vol 309, Issue 5731, 101 , 1 July 2005

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Have Saudis Overstated their Oil Reserves?

• Investment banker Matthew Simmons.
• Highlights many discrepancies between Saudi
  Arabia's actual production potential and its
  seemingly extravagant resource claims.
• May in fact be peaking soon.

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What might we expect in near future?

• Ever rising gasoline prices.
• Fewer recreational road trips.
• More use of trains.
• Airline travel ever more expensive.
• Commuting from the suburbs ever more expensive.
• Electricity, gas, heating oil, become ever more
  expensive.
• Rising inflation everything will cost more (due
  to rising shipping and production costs).
• Economic recessions.
• International conflict over oil resources.

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Worst case future scenarios

• Economic recessions.
• We might see a return of the Great Depression.
• Maybe a Malthusian catastrophe
• (e.g., population die-off).

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Wonder what life would be like without cheap oil?

• We already have examples North Korea and Cuba.
• LA Times Article
• "GLIMPSES OF A HERMIT NATION A decade after a
  massive famine, North Koreans are still
  struggling. In Chongjin, deprivation spurs
  change. By Barbara Demick, LA Times Staff
  Writer, July 3, 2005.
• outsiders know relatively little about its
  people or the miseries they have endured since a
  famine in the mid-1990s wiped out an estimated 2
  million people.

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MSNBC.com article Think it's hot? Be glad
you're not in Cuba - Daily blackouts putting
nation in a bad mood.July 12, 2005
http//www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8500543/print/1/displa
ymode/1098/

• HAVANA Summers searing temperatures getting
  you down? Just be glad you dont live in Cuba
  where daily blackouts make it about impossible to
  beat this years record heat.
• At first, the blackouts were tolerable, four
  hours twice a week. But by mid-month they had
  grown to daily six-hour ordeals.
• Still, she considers herself lucky. We live on
  the top floor apartment so we get to use the roof
  to sleep. Peoples biggest complaint has to do
  with the nighttime blackouts. Its hard to sleep
  without the use of an air conditioner or fan.

• Cuba at Night

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Cubas vs. N. Korea Oil CrisisWhy was Cuba able
to avoid famine?

• Cuba had a similar oil crisis when the Soviet
  Union collapsed, but, unlike North Korea, they
  were able to avoid famine.
• Why? How?

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Historical Energy Sources Energy Phase
Transitions

• Wood, which was replaced by
• Coal, in the 1800s, which was replaced by
• Oil, in the 1900s, which must be replaced by a
  renewable energy source
• _________ ? in the 2000s (?)
• Solar?
• Wind?
• Nuclear Fusion (hot or cold)? (Current nuclear
  fission is finite and non-renewable)

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Energy Phase Transitions

• Each previous energy phase transition
  wood -gt coal -gt oil was to a more dense
  energy source.
• PROBLEMS WE FACE NOW
• Energy Density All clean, renewable energy
  sources are far less dense
• Demand for wood and coal could be met when they
  were needed.
• But demand for oil will rise inexorably, as
  production inexorably decreases. Demand cannot
  be met.

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Perilous Energy Phase Transition Period to
renewable energy sources

• Do we have enough time?
• Or, is it already too late?
• Transition period is very risky.
• Huge infrastructure changes / investments
• It takes time to transition smoothly we may not
  have started soon enough.
• Costs of infrastructure change will be enormous
• We need to start immediately.

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The Kurzweilian PerspectiveScientific
technology to the rescue!

• Part B
• Ray Kurzweil
• Technological knowledge will increase
  geometrically
• Exponential explosion of scientific knowledge
  will allow us solve problems of carrying
  capacity, find unlimited energy sources (e.g.,
  fusion), cure disease and aging, and to become
  immortal.

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The Law of Accelerating Returns

• Ray Kurzweil argues
• Machine intelligence will surpass human
  intelligence, leading to The Singularity --
  Technological change so rapid and profound it
  represents a rupture in the fabric of human
  history
• Merger of biological and non-biological
  intelligencehttp//www.kurzweilai.net/articles/ar
  t0134.html?printable1

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Possible sources of a breakthrough techno energy
rescue?

• Nuclear fusion cold or hot?
• E.g., Focus Fusion -- http//www.opensourceenerg
  y.org/txtlstvw.aspx?LstID95defd1e-f25c-4a33-8002-
  a69aca481e6a
• Hydrino Energy?
• Controversial classical quantum mechanics
• Posits that an electron can move much closer to
  the proton at the heart of a hydrogen atom and,
  in doing so, releases substantial amounts of
  energy
• http//www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,162
  7424,00.html / http//www.hydrino.org/http//phy
  sicsweb.org/articles/news/9/8/4
• Methane hydrates (non-renewable)?
• Buried beneath the seabed and Arctic permafrost.
  A mixture of ice and natural gas,
• May contain more carbon than existing reserves of
  oil, coal and gas put together.
• But can it be extracted?

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Current renewable energy technology (no techo-fix
needed).

• Solar concentrators can be used for Electrical
  Power Generation, Hydrogen Production
• 100 square mile area could provide all electrical
  needs of U.S.
• Another 100 sq miles could provide all of our
  transportation energy
• From http//www.shec-labs.com/products.php

• A Solar Concentrator

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100 square miles solar PV could meet the entire
U.S. yearly electrical needs.http//www.energycoo
peration.org/solarh2.htm
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Part 1 ConclusionFor todays college students,
in your lifetime

• From the baby boom generation to yours
• Sorry, we used up most of the cheap oil
• But, we developed a foundation of scientific
  knowledge that might help rescue you
• but we must start on a crash program immediately
  to transition to renewable energy
• Within 20 50 years, you will likely know who
  won either
• Malthusian scenario Economic collapse and
  perhaps a significant world population die off
• Kurzweilian scenario Knowledge singularity
  a scientific/technological energy transition
  rescue

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Part 2 Global CooperationDuring the Perilous
Phase Transition to Renewable Energy

• The life contest is primarily a competition for
  available energy.
• Ludwig Boltzman, Physicist (1886) Der zweite
  Hauptsatz der mechanischen Waermetheorie, 1886
  (Georold, Vienna) p. 210.
• E.G., contest for the energy contained in food.
• Now, also a contest for fossil fuels
• Energy determines what you can do, and often you
  can do what you will do.
• Fredric Cottrell, Energy and Society (1955)
• Whoever controls the oil, controls the world.

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How can we avoid an economic collapse, even a
Malthusian die off?

• Depletion of fossil fuels will lower energy
  availability by about 3 - 6 each year, every
  year, from here on out
• not pretty.
• We have to immediately
• conserve oil and gas, and
• rapidly transition to renewable energy (solar,
  wind, etc.)
• hope for an extraordinary energy technology
  rescue (e.g., fusion, etc.)
• It is too risky now to rely only on a possible
  future techno-fix
• Need now
• World-wide conservation of fossil fuels
• Build infrastructure for current renewable energy
• Invest in research to try to find a breakthrough
  techo-fix

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Peaking of World Oil Production Impacts,
Mitigation, Risk ManagementLed by Dr. Robert
Hirsch, U.S. Department of Energy (2005)

• If a crash program to switch from oil to
  renewable energy begins
• 0 years before Peak Oil Leaves the world with a
  significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two
  decades.
• Severe economic disruptions.
•  
• 10 years before Peak Oil Helps considerably but
  still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall for roughly
  a decade after the time that oil would have
  peaked.
• Moderate economic disruptions. 
• 20 years before Peak Oil Appears to offer the
  possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels
  shortfall for the forecast period.
• Slight economic disruptions.
• Hirsch The world has never confronted a problem
  like this, and the failure to act on a timely
  basis could have debilitating impacts on the
  world economy. Risk minimization requires the
  implementation of mitigation measures well prior
  to peaking.
• Source http//www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/
  The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf

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Problem Human Nature

• From a biological perspective
• Humans are designed to maximize their own
  reproductive output (Darwinian Fitness)
• And help family and close kin (inclusive
  fitness)
• Were not much inclined to help non-kin
  strangers.
• Examples
• Tragedy of the Commons
• Free-rider problem

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Who would you save?

• There are 2 doors
• Behind the door on the right is your child, who
  will die if you dont open that door.
• Behind the door on the left is someone elses
  child, who will die if you dont open that door.
• You can only open one door.
• Which door do you open. Why?

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When will people tend to cooperate with others?

• when dealing with genetic relatives (Hamiltons
  inclusive fitness theory).
• when repeated interactions with non-relatives
  offer reciprocal benefits (Trivers tit-for-tat
  reciprocity theory)
• And cheating (temptation) is reliably punished.
• when dealing with non-relatives, when social
  rules against cheating are usually enforced, and
  the resource pie is growing (Ginits, et al.,
  generalized reciprocity e.g., follow the
  rules, even when no-one is watching).

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Hamiltons Rule.

• r degree of genetic relatedness
• b benefit (in reproductive terms), to related
  individual
• c cost (in reproductive terms) to altruist
• Altruism will occur when
• c (cost to you) lt (r) b (benefit to kin)

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When will you be altruistic?Answer when cost to
you lt (r) x (benefit to kin)

• c lt rb -- plug in some sample values
• To your siblings (share ½ of your genes)
• When benefit to a sib is 2x cost to you
• 1 lt (.5) 2 -- cost to you lt (r) benefit to sib
  -- e.g, c lt rb
• Only when it will cost you less than 1 to get
  your sib at least 2
• To ½ sibs, aunt/uncle, niece/nephew (r .25)
• 1 lt (.25) 4 When benefits to this kin member is
  4x the cost to you.
• Only when it will cost you less than 1 to get
  your nephew at least 4
• r .125 ? 8x benefit to other vs. cost to you
• r .062 ? 16x benefit vs. cost to you
• r .031 ? 32x benefit vs. cost to you
• r .015 ? 64x benefit vs. cost to you
• Sad bottom line As r declines, altruism will
  exponentially decline

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Arab Adage

• Me against my brother.
• Me and my brother against my cousins
• Me, my brother, and my cousins against the
  village
• Me, my brother, my cousins and my village against
  the other village

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Game Theory Types of Social Interactions
66
Game Theory and Peak Oil
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Problem Cooperation is Far Less Likely in a
Negative Sum Game

• Generalized reciprocity works well when the
  overall resource pie is growing (a positive sum
  game).
• The costs of cooperating are low.
• But Peak Oil crisis is a shrinking energy pie
  situation (a negative sum game).
• Peak oil requires the whole world to cooperate as
  resources grow scarce. How can that be achieved?

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Peak Oil Bell CurveAscent and Decline Strategies

• Peak Oil Slope Ascent Strategies
• Served us well on peak oil ascent
• Free market capitalism, consumerism, globalism,
  un-taxed energy use, no incentives for renewable
  energy use, short term time horizon
• But now, it is dangerous if we cling to those
  Ascent Values
• Peak Oil Slope Decline Strategies
• Requires new ways of thinking.
• Government conservation and renewable energy
  incentives, taxes on excessive energy use, RIMINI
  Protocol (shared burdens)
• Businesses and Individuals Localization (food,
  manufacturing, etc.), energy conservation, use of
  renewable energy.

69
Imagineyou are on Easter Island

• How do you convince your tribe, and other tribes,
  to create a sustainable timber industry on the
  island?
• Instead of businesses plundering the planet, is
  sustainable capitalism possible?

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THE RIMINI PROTOCOLhttp//www.peakoil.ie/protocol

• Kyoto Protocol deals with climate change.
• Oil Depletion Protocol (RIMINI Protocol) deals
  with Peak Oil.
• Each importing country shall reduce its imports
  to match the current World Depletion Rate.
• That is, if World Depletion Rate is 3, the U.S.
  (and all other countries), must reduce its oil
  imports by 3 per year.
• That is agreement for each nation to share the
  declining energy burden proportionately.
• The stakes are very high -- if every nation
  follows these guidelines, we may be able to avoid
  conflict and resource wars over the remaining
  fossil energy supplies as they grow ever more
  scarce and precious.

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Conclusion

• Peak oil means a shrinking fossil fuel energy
  pie, and higher oil costs, each and every year.
• Energy transition time window We have a short
  window of time to transition to renewable energy.
  We need to start yesterday.
• We can hope for an energy techno-breakthrough
  (e.g., fusion), but we better not count on it.
• World-wide cooperation vs. human nature
• Avoiding conflict and resource wars over
  shrinking resources will require world-wide
  cooperation and conservation
• We need to see the threat as a common one that
  transcends borders, cultures and religions.
• Are we smarter than yeast in the petri dish? Can
  we transcend our human nature?

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To download a copy of this presentation, see

• www.DrMillsLMU.com/PeakOil.htm
• Online in about a week.