Tech-Industry-level of observation.

1
Innovation Observatories
Technology Roadmapping (TRM)

• Tech-Industry-level of observation. analysis
• Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary
• Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum
• Viewing Business Implications of Technology
  trends
• Unifying, Big-Picture perspective
• Long-term view, futurecasting
• Neutral-ground for discussion among industry
  players MIT research sponsors
• Support personnel Project Management

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15.795 Technology Roadmapping
(An example Masters Research Seminar)
Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost Bonsen Fall
2002 This seminar will explore the purposes and
development of Technology Roadmaps for
systematically mapping out possible development
paths for various technological domains and the
industries that build on them. Data of
importance for such roadmaps include rates of
innovation, key bottlenecks, physical
limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate
intent, and value chain and industry
evolutionary paths. The course will build on
ongoing work on the MIT Communications
Technology Roadmap project, but will explore
other domains selected from Nanotechnology,
Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics,
Neurotechnology, Imaging Diagnostics, etc.
Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be
offered.
3
Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping

• Observing Value Chain Evolution over time
• Language for discussion between management
  technology world
• Structured basis for interaction Cross Value
  Chains, between academia industry, spanning
  basic research through application
• Bridging between vertical silos of research
  e.g. MicroPhotonics ? LIDS ? Media Lab ? eBiz
  Center
• Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps
• Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up
  (generally)

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Components of MITs Technology Roadmapping Effort

1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems
   dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect)
2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous
   version of the double helix in Fines Clockspeed
   book)
3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize
   Porter-like analyses for players in the value
   chain)
4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor
   Industry Association's roadmap built around
   Moore's law)
5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National,
   Cross Sector

Source Fine, MIT
5
TRM Technology Domains

• Established
• Semiconductors
• Photonics
• Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics
• Wireless
• MEMS
• Smart Materials

• Emerging
• Soft Lithography
• Neurotechnology
• Nanotechnology
• Organotechnology
• Biological Engineering
• Gerontechnology
• Autonomous Systems

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Generalizing Enriching Historic Technology
Demand Trends

• Historical Efforts
• Moores Law
• Electronic Devices
• Sematech Roadmap
• Disk Drives
• Ongoing
• Optical Networking
• Wireless
• Future
• New technologies

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Moores Law
Transistors per chip
109
?
108
107
106
105
104
103
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Source Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS
Centennial, Atlanta, 1999
Source Fine, MIT
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Roadmap for Electronic Devices
Number of chip components
1018
Classical Age
Quantum Age
1016
1014
1012
Quantum State Switch
SIA Roadmap
1010
108
Historical Trend
CMOS
106
104
102
101
100
10-1
10-2
10-3
Source Fine, MIT
Feature size (microns)
Horst D. Simon
9
International Technology Roadmap for
Semiconductors 99
Year 2005 2008 2011 2014
Technology (nm) 100 70 50 35
DRAM chip area (mm2) 526 603 691 792
DRAM capacity (Gb) 8 64
MPU chip area (mm2) 622 713 817 937
MPU transistors (x109) 0.9 2.5 7.0 20.0
MPU Clock Rate (GHz) 3.5 6.0 10.0 13.5
Source Fine, MIT
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Disk Drive Development 1978-1991
Disk Drive Generation 14 8 5.25 3.5 2.5
Dominant Producer IBM Quantum Seagate Conner
Conner
Dominant Usage mainframe Mini-computer Desktop
PC Portable PC Notebook PC
Approx cost per Megabyte 750 100 30 7 2
From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density
increased by 60/year while semiconductor
density grew 50/year. Disk Drive cost per
megabyte in 1997 was .10
Source Fine, MIT
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Optical Networking


OC768
OC192
OC48
Capacity
OC12
Time
Source Fine, MIT
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Optical Technology Evolution Navigating the
Generations with an Immature Technology
1 2 3 4 5
Timeline Now Starting Starting 3-5 years 5-15 years
Stage Discrete Components Hybrid Integration Low-level monolithic integration Medium Monolithic integration High-level monolithic integration
Examples MUX/ DEMUX TX/RX module OADM TX/RX module OADM OADM, Transponder Switch Matrix Transponder
Core Techno-logies FBGs, Thin-film, fused fiber, mirrors Silicon Bench, Ceramic substrates Silica Silicon InP InP, ?? InP, ??
How many Functions? 1 2-5 2-5 5-10 10-XXX
Industry Structure Integrated Integrated/ Horizontal Integrated/ Horizontal

Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT Corning
Source Fine, MIT
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Supply Chain Volatility AmplificationThe
Bullwhip Effect
Retailer
Customer
Distributor
Factory
Equipment
Tier 1 Supplier
Information lags Delivery lags Over- and
underordering Misperceptions of
feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations
SOLUTIONS Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical
Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt.
(Cincinnati Milacron Boeing)
Source Fine, MIT
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Supply Chain Volatility Amplification Machine
Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip
"Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain The
Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E.
Anderson, C. Fine G. Parker Production and
Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000,
pp. 239-261.
Source Fine, MIT
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TRM Industry-Benefits

• Economic context for technology decisions
  investments
• Lowering Risks for capital investments
• Not Stalins 5-year plans rather, coordination
  collaboration, co-optition

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TRM Literature

• MicroPhotonics Center
• http//mph-roadmap.mit.edu
• Example Theses
• http//mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspeed/main.h
  tml
• References
• http//www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/

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Other Roadmapping Efforts

• ITRS International Technology Roadmapping for
  Semiconductors
• http//public.itrs.net/
• Electricity Technology Roadmap
• http//www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadma
  p/
• Steel Industry Technology Roadmap
• http//www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm
• Lighting Technology Roadmap
• http//www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/
• Robotics Intelligent Machines RM
• http//www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm

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Generalizing Quantifying Clockspeed

• Benefits to comparing between Industries
• Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics
• Cross-species Benchmarking
• Quantify Ultimately Model these Dynamics,
  improve theoretical understanding

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TRM Class Goals

• Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT
  researchers, Industry Sponsors
• Across MIT research areas
• Cross Industry Benchmarking
• Partnered with Industrial Sponsors
• Attract students passionate about technology
  sector, however broadly or narrowly defined
• Committed to producing coherent complete Tech
  Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester

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What is Tech Roadmapping?

• Trends -- Statement of historic performance
  improvement and extrapolations into future
• Consensus Shared opinion about likely future
  developments
• Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue
  particular technologies
• Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on
  pre-competitive research funding
• Understanding -- Method of understanding broader
  socio-economic context of broad technology trends

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Degree of Industry Aggregation?

• Communications Roadmap
• Optical Communications
• MicroPhotonics
• Wireless
• Personal Area Networking
• Cellular G3, G4, G5
• Medical Imaging
• MRI
• Functional MRI
• Nanotechnology
• Precision Engineering
• AFM
• Biological Engineering
• Bacterial Robotics

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TRM Summer Plan

• June
• Literature Web review
• Draft course syllabus
• ID Guest speaker researcher/collaborator
  connections
• Assemble Readings web references
• PPT graphics assembly
• Team-formation process
• Key MIT faculty labs to engage
• July
• Refine syllabus
• Solidify guests
• Confirm Readings
• Industry-specific References, e.g. seminar series
• August
• Finalize above
• Ramp-up Promotion
• Posters

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Potential Academia Speakers

• Kim Kimerling, MicroPhotonics
• Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech
• http//web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html
• Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS
• http//www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/
• Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI
• http//hst.mit.edu/martinos/
• Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics
• http//www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html
• Tom Knight, AI Lab / Computation Biology
• http//www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html

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Potential Industry Speakers

• John Santini, MicroCHIPS / MEMS Drug Delivery
  Systems
• Carmichael Roberts, SurfaceLogix / Soft
  Lithography
• Noubar Afeyan, Flagship / Biotech
• Paolo Gargini, Intel Fellow, Chair of Intl RM
  Committee
• http//www.intel.com/research/silicon/itroadmap.ht
  m
• http//www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/bios/gargini.h
  tm

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Goal

• Start with Communications RM
• Presentation from visitors/guests from other
  technologies what they think
• Students form teams and pursue RMs on tech of
  their choice
• Project-based course

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Syllabus

1. Intro, Overview, Case Examples, Expectations,
   Technology Themes _at_ MIT
2. Communications Roadmapping
3. Historic Efforts e.g. Sematech
4. Roadmapping Expectations
5. Biotech Speakers
6. Infotech Speakers
7. Tinytech Speakers
11. Finale

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Details to be hashed out

• Two full-days foci, at end of semester
• All teams
• Think about how to make it
• Attend talks seminar series in that tech
  sector, thats part of the course

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One page briefing

• Whats course
• Projects delivering value
• TRMs valuable for sponsors labs
• Who are key people?
• Rope in key faculty

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Connections

• Ted Piepenrock
• Powertrain GM, Fuel Cell
• Lean Aero
• SD folks interested?
• Technology Industry Roadmapping
• How take components glue them together
• SD models for each, and mega model
• Orchestration

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Financing

• Darpa
• Microphot, comm industry is fruitfly
• Defense aerospace, dinosaur
• Multiple industries interesting

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todos

• Pay Joost
• Lessard again
• Charlie 50 support?