National Public Radio

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National Public Radio
May 3, 2002
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METHODOLOGY
Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present
the results of a national survey conducted April
28-30, 2002 on behalf of NPR, in conjunction with
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. The survey
interviewed 736 likely voters with a margin of
error of 3.61. Likely voters are defined
as those respondents who voted in the election in
November of 2000 and are likely to vote in the
upcoming 2002 November election. This survey is
the third survey conducted for NPR by the two
research firms. The dates of the surveys are as
follows March 4-7, 2002, March 19-25, 2002 and
April 28-30, 2002.
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The mood of the country is still positive, but
some erosion in public attitude is evident.
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President Bushs job approval score is still
high and solid.
5
While Bushs approval is clearly boosted by his
efforts against terrorism, people who disapprove
of his job are clearly focusing on domestic
issues.
6
Republicans and Democrats are now tied on the
generic congressional ballot within the margin of
error.
7
Voters top four issues in deciding their vote
for Congress are issues on which Democrats have
an advantage.
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Respondents who selected these top four issues in
deciding their vote for Congress (the economy and
jobs, Social Security and Medicare, affordable
health care, and education) favor the Democratic
candidate on the generic congressional vote.
Republicans hold the edge by wide margins among
the smaller number of voters who said their top
issues are terrorism, taxes, and moral values.
Congressional Ballot By Respondents Top TWO Most
Important Issues
Democrat Advantage
Republican Advantage
9 ENVIRONMENT
47
(DEM 65 - GOP 18 )
23 HEALTH CARE
21
(DEM 49 - GOP 28 )
25 SOCIAL SECURITY/MEDICARE
17
(DEM 45 - GOP 28 )
23 EDUCATION
9
(DEM 43 - GOP 34 )
35 ECONOMY JOBS
4
(DEM 42 - GOP 38 )
10 DRUGS/CRIME
3
(DEM 46 - GOP 43 )
10 FEDERAL SPENDING
18
(DEM 30 - GOP 48 )
21 ANTI-TERRORISM EFFORTS
23
(DEM 29 - GOP 52 )
14 TAXES
35
(DEM 23 - GOP 58 )
18 MORAL VALUES
48
(DEM 12 - GOP 60 )
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Its clear voters are focused on issues
here at home.
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President Bush also enjoys solid approval ratings
for his handling of our foreign policy.
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the
job George W. Bush is doing
handling our foreign policy?
33

37

18

70

68

42

52

82
81
73
68
63
53
50
32
26
26
21
20
13
12
March
April
June
December
January
April
April28-30, 2002
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
NBC News/
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
Wall Street Journal polls
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Foreign policy means Afghanistan for a
plurality of voters.
12
Republicans are more focused on Afghanistan while
Democrats focus more on the Middle East.
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President Bushs job approval rating dips
slightly when asked specifically about the
administrations handling of the Middle East.
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President Bushs job approval ratings of the
situation in the Middle East, though, are far
softer among voters who think his handling of
our foreign policy refers to the situation in
the Middle East.
Middle East Policy Approval By Foreign Policy
Focus
12
56
73
52
40
17
Middle East
Afghanistan
(34)
(47)
Approve
Disapprove
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The President's softer rating on the Middle East
can also be seen when contrasted to voters view
of his plans combating international terrorism.
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Likely voters readily agree with a series of
statements testing the proposition the elections
for Congress this November are more likely to be
settled on issues here at home rather than on
terrorism or the Middle East.
Thinking about the elections for Congress that
are taking place in November, I am going to be
reading you a series of short statements
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with
each one...
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Voters are more likely to agree with Democrats
assertion to focus more on problems here at
home.
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The Democratic statement tests significantly
better among Independents than the Republican
statement.
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So, overall, a majority of likely voters (50)
selected a Democratic oriented positioning
statement, while 42 of respondents selected a
Republican positioning statement.