Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington, DC 28 September 2005

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Vehicle to Grid PowerAnalysis SeminarNREL,
Washington, DC28 September 2005

• Willett Kempton
• University of Delaware

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Four Big Problems

• Global climate change. Evidence in the past two
  years suggest far more risk than before.
• Peak oil production demand from China and India
  soaring 200B/year in Middle East wars.
• US economy extraordinarily vulnerable to external
  supply and distant politics.
• Renewable energy plentiful and now cheap, limited
  by intermittent supply.

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An Unexpected Synergy

• It may be easier to solve all of these problems
  at once than one at a time.
• Vehicle to Grid power (V2G) as a bridging
  technology.

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Vehicle to Grid
Arrows indicate direction of power flow
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V2G Basic Math

• Average car driven 1 hour/day --gt time parked is
  23 hours/day
• Daily average travel 32 miles
• Practical power draw from car 10 - 20 kW
• US power generation811 GW load417 GW
• US 191 million cars x 15 kW 2,865 GW

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How Much Power?
Denmark UK USA
Avg. Electric Load (GW) 3.6 40 417
Light vehicles (106) 1.9 28.5 191
Vehicle GW (if electric drive _at_ 15 kW each) 29 427 2,865
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How Much Power?
Denmark UK USA
Avg. Electric Load (GW) 3.6 40 417
Light vehicles (106) 1.9 28.5 191
Vehicle GW (if electric drive _at_ 15 kW each) 29 427 2,865
... power in cars gtgt generation or load
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Which vehicles will be available first?

• Fuel cell?
• Plug-in hybrid?
• Battery?

(all work for V2G, distinct advantages for each)
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Fuel Cell Vehicle Honda FCX
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NRC Review of H2

• "Since using hydrogen as a transportation fuel
  would necessitate several significant
  breakthroughs, other alternatives to achieve the
  program goals should be explored and additional
  research supported if such alternatives show
  comparable prospects for success. The committee
  suggests that high-energy batteries for pure
  battery electric vehicles might be such an
  alternative. "
• From Executive Summary, Review of the Research
  Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership,
  National Research Council, draft, August 2005,
  page ES-5 (www.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11406.pdf)

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Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle DaimlerChrysler Sprinter
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Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle DaimlerChrysler Sprinter

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Revolution in Battery Technology

• Todays automotive starter batteries Lead-acid
• RAV4 EV (and Toyota Prius hybrid battery) Nickel
  Metal-hydride
• New batteries based on Lithium, Li-ion or
  Li-polymer 5x lighter for same energy!
• These advances make possible large battery
  storage for vehicles.

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Which atom would you schlep?
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Which atom would you schlep?
Pb207.2 Ni58.9 Li6.9
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So, what can you do with these batteries?
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Venturi Fetish
58 kWh Li-ion 180 kW 400 km range standard WiMax
802.16 2 Intel chips Oracle 10G iPod V2G
0-100 km/h in 4.5 sec, max 170 km/h
19 Sep 05 press release http//www.internetnews.
com/ent-news/article.php/3549956
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Mitsubishi Colt platform
In-wheel motor
13 kWh Li-ion, 2 x 20kW in-wheel
motors developing 50 kW in-wheel motor
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Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion
We plan to manufacture safety-certified electric
vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and
fleet customers. The conversions will be based on
the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact
vehicles built by Toyota...
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Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion
We plan to manufacture safety-certified electric
vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and
fleet customers. The conversions will be based on
the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact
vehicles built by Toyota...
We plan two models, a base model, and a premium
with a larger battery. The base model will
outperform the RAV4 EV and is expected to sell
for about the same price.
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But, dont we need to wait for the big OEMs?
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OEM Automobile Logic

• Automobile as receiver of petroleum isolated
  from other energy systems
• Engine as the primary value added, owned by OEM
  (other components commodity items, from
  suppliers)
• Expertise in combustion, mechanical engineering,
  low-cost production
• No expertise or IP in electrochemistry, power
  electronics, power markets
• Consumers performance space inviolable

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BEV and PHEV Logic

• Non-fossil carriers essential to the future
• Hydrogen unlikely, especially in the near term,
  thus electricity primary carrier
• CO2 displacement very large, especially with
  hydro or wind
• Electricity as carrier leads to V2G logic...

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V2G Logic

• Cars A power resource too large to ignore
• V2G makes electric power capacity cheap, but
  electric energy is still expensive
• Today, market value for grid management
• Future, enable very large renewable energy
• Optimize design for both transport and electric
  system -- OEMs will not do this

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Example logical disconnect The Plug

• OEM stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for
  overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power
  components, no electrician needed (save 500),
  anyway wheres the V2G rate schedule?
• V2G add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell
  regulation services (add revenue of 3,000/year),
  start with regional markets.

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Example logical disconnect The Plug

• OEM stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for
  overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power
  components, no electrician needed (save 500),
  anyway wheres the V2G rate schedule?
• V2G add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell
  regulation services (add revenue of 3,000/year),
  start with regional markets.

The OEMs dont get it. They arent going to get
it until someone else puts the pieces together
and shows how it works.
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Better to demonstrate the V2G business model
without OEMs
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Better to demonstrate the V2G business model
without OEMs

• V2G revenues mean we can afford to make cars that
  costs 10K too much
• Less capitalized manufacturing process allows
  design refinements as we understand the
  businesses
• The critical cost barriers are components, not
  low-cost assembly

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Which power markets?

• Not bulk power, because costs gt revenue
• Ideal to start selling mostly power (capacity)
  not so much energy ... ancillary services (A/S)
• A/S Regulation, spinning reserves, reactive
  power, etc 10B/year in US
• Vehicle can run regulation while parked and
  charging (next slides)

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Regulation from hydro
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Regulation from V2G (drive, charge A/S)
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A sequence of markets

• High value regulation great for buying down
  initially high vehicle cost
• About 1 - 3 of the vehicle fleet saturates
  regulation, up to perhaps 4-5 saturates other
  A/S, then start selling peak power
• As V2G costs drop and A/S saturates, start
  selling storage for intermittent renewables
  (8-38 of fleet enables 50 wind!)
• So, lets look at some business models...

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PJM A/S Regulation Single Vehicles

• Average DPL costs for Ancillary Service
  regulation 6,800,000/year (6.8M)
• Average PJM regulation contract price in 2003 was
  38.33 /MW-h
• Single vehicle, 15 kW, available 18 h/d, A/S reg
  -gt 3777 revenue/year
• PJM contracts 1 MW, so, need an aggregator (e.g.,
  Delmarva, Verizon Cellular or ...)

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A/S Regulation Fleet operator as IPP

• 100 vehicles, parked 18h/d (16 h 5 days 24 h
  2 days), 80 available, each 20 kW A/S
  regulation services at 38/MW-h.
• Single connection point, single meter, 2 MW peak
  generator --gt higher ISO comfort
• Revenue 10018h365d.8.02MW38
  400,000/year revenue from fleet (4,000/car/year)

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Regional assembly

• Buy gasoline vehicle, modify to electric with V2G
• 10 lifts in a 10,000-15,000 ft2 warehouse, 15-20
  employees, produce 250 cars/year, 2 shifts500
• Vehicle conversion local, battery assembly local,
  cars sourced from OEM, drive sourced from AC
  Propulsion, national/local sourcing of gearbox,
  wiring harness, non-drive electronics, metal
  parts.
• Production could start in 12 - 18 months!

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Assembler Finances

• Engineer for each platform Cost about 1 - 2M
  for engineering and testing. Add 2M for NTSA
  crash tests, manufacturer certification.
• Set up shop for US 0.4 to 1.0 million working
  capital about 3 m
• Assembler cost breakpoints at 500, 2,000
  vehicles/year OEM cost breaks at 30,000 -
  100,000/year
• Vehicle cost at 250/year perhaps 45k an
  argument for public subsidy

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Transition Strategy

• Start simple Battery now, e-hybrid later
• Small fleets 100 car V2G fleet 1 MW
  demonstrate V2G business models
• Production in several regions, develop
  technology, drive down component costs
• Develop standards for V2G (e.g. response time,
  metering, at least 10 kW/car, drawdown limits,
  etc)
• THEN we need the OEMs, low-cost production at gt
  50,000 cars/year

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How to launch a V2G industry?

• Well under 20 M gets several fleets going
• OR, a couple of state PUCs could
  allow/ratebase/require their IOUs to buy 100
  vehicle size V2G fleets
• OR, a municipal government or urban peak power
  user could provide free CBD parking free charge
  in exchange for V2G
• OR, a state legislature could use a small
  gasoline, electric, or car registration fee to
  buy down initial costs of V2G vehicles

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Vision

• One-half vehicle fleet is electric drive battery
  plus plug-in hybrid
• One-half of electric energy from wind, eventually
  other renewables
• Climate change is greatly slowed down US can
  survive (a while) without foreign oil
• CO2-free electricity, high-penetration
  intermittent renewables, and CO2-free
  transportation an unexpected and dramatic synergy

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