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School Enrollment Projection Report and GeoCoding

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Title: School Enrollment Projection Report and GeoCoding


1
School Enrollment Projection Report and Geo-Coding
  • Presented on October 22, 2008

Prepared by Stan Slachetka, AICP, P.P. TM
Associates
2
Projection Methodology
  • Cohort Survival Method
  • Uses historic enrollment data and birth records
    to estimate future enrollments
  • Growth Model
  • Takes into consideration a communitys growth
    rate to estimate the amount of additional school
    age children to be generated from new residential
    development.
  • Uses certificates of occupancy (COs), approved
    and pending development applications, and
    demographic multipliers to predict enrollments.

3
Glossary
  • Cohort
  • The number of students in a specific class as it
    progresses up through each grade level
  • Cohort survival ratio
  • The ratio between the class size at one grade
    level to the class size at the next highest grade
    level
  • In-migration
  • The number of new students added to a cohort
    between each grade

4
Glossary (2/2)
  • Demographic multiplier
  • The estimated number of school children to be
    generated from a residential unit.
  • Based on national and regional studies of the
    actual number of school children generated by
    residential development
  • Center for Urban Policy ResearchRutgers
    University (June 2006)
  • Impacted by
  • Type of Residential Unit
  • Number of Bedrooms
  • Price of Unit

5
Historic Enrollment
6
Historic and Projected Births
7
Historic Enrollment
8
Historic Enrollment
9
Historic Development Activity
10
Residential Development
11
Residential Development
12
Development Multipliers
13
Enrollment Projection
14
Enrollment Projection
Based on Full Day Kindergarten
15
Enrollment Projection-District
16
Enrollment Projection-District
17
Enrollment Projection-Schools
18
Existing Districts
19
Scenario 2
20
Enrollment Projection-Schools Scenario 2
21
Scenario 3
22
Enrollment Projection-Schools Scenario 3
23
Paired K-3 and 4-6
24
Enrollment Projection-Schools Paired PK-3 and 4-6
K to 3
4-6
Pre-K at Middle Road
25
Half to Full Day Kindergarten
26
Caveats and Cautions
  • Economic Trends Housing Market
  • Affordable Housing Issues
  • New COAH numbers and regulations adopted in
    June/September 2008
  • Revisions in Hazlet Township Affordable Housing
    Plan

27
Thank You
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