Political Paradoxes

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Political Paradoxes

• Florin Fesnic, FSPU Bucharest, Spring 2008

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Purpose of the course

• Politics is interesting and fun!
• Political science courses are often boring and
  dull
• Methodology courses are even worse
• It shouldnt be this way
• What is to be done?

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A new kind of course

• A mix of
• (a) Mainstream political science literature
  (e.g., uniform partisan swing theory)
• (b) A few basic methodological tools (e.g.,
  linear regression)
• (c) A paradox (negative correlation between
  vote for a candidate in one election and vote for
  the same candidate in the next election)
• ? rigorous analysis using (b) to reconcile (a c)

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Regional development ? vote

• Presidential elections in Ukraine
• Vote for Kuchma, 1994 runoff
• Development urbanization
• Oblast-level vote for Kuchma as a function of
  urbanization

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Urbanization and vote for Kuchma (1994 runoff)
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Urbanization, language, and vote for Kuchma (1994
runoff)
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Urbanization, language, region, and vote for
Kuchma (1994 runoff)
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Methodological and substantive lessons

• Methodology the importance of control variables
• w/o control variables urbanization has a huge
  impact on the vote for Kuchma
• With control variables urbanization has a
  negligible impact on vote for Kuchma
• Substance you must know your cases!

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• If politics is fun, teaching learning about it
  should be, and can be, equally fun
• This can apply even to methodology
• Making Methodology Work a tall order, but
• If we pick appropriate examples, not an
  impossible task

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Suggestions?

• Additional topics?
• Additional readings?
• Structure?
• Sequence?
• ? complement of classic methods courses
• ? should it be taught before or after such
  courses?