Looking forward : Trucking outlook to 2020 Growth in Tonnage

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Looking forward Trucking outlook to 2020Growth
in Tonnage
Rail Intermodal
Air
Trucking
Rail Carload
Waterborne
Pipeline
Sources IHS Global Insight and ATA
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Looking forward Trucking outlook to
2020Distribution of Tonnage by Mode 2008 vs.
2020
2008
2020
Source U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast
to2020 and the ATA
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Market Challenges 2020

• ROI
• Capacity
• Fuel
• Environment
• Driver issues
• Government Legislation

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Sustained capacity exodus from transportation
segments
Segment TL LTL Rail Barge Parcel Express Air
Freight Ocean
Short-Term Reduction 18 8 15 15 3 12 4 11
Long-Term Reduction 15 6 0 0 3 8 0 0
Source American Trucking Association, IATA,
AXS-Alphabaliner, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
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CLASS 8 TRUCK MARKET ORDERS AND BUILDS
2004 14
2007 and 2006 44
2005 38
Orders
Builds
Estimated Normal Replacement Level 220,000
trucks/yr

170,000 more trucks than normal were built in
2005 and 2006 5 to 6 increase in supply.
Excess supply is reversing with huge decline in
class 8 truck builds in 07, 08 and 09. Do not
expect industry pre-buy in 2009.
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Total Trucking Failures vs. Average Diesel Fuel
PriceDoes not account for downsizing of existing
fleets
Source Avondale Partners
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Equipment Technology for Reduced Fuel Emissions

• Auxiliary Power Units (APUs)
• Aerodynamic trucks
• Engine technology
• Super Single Tires
• Nitrogen inflated tires
• Automatic tire inflation systems
• Bio Diesel
• Natural Gas Engines
• Hydraulic Hybrids

• Stationary fifth wheel
• Trailer skirts
• Fuel additives
• Low viscosity drive-train lubricants
• Lighter weight equipment
• Reduced Idle RPMs
• Single drive axles
• Electric Hybrids

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Pending Legislative Issues Impact to Trucking

• Hours of Service
• Infrastructure spending
• Size and Weight Limits
• Progressive Highway Safety Agenda
• Highway Reauthorization
• Cap and Trade
• CARB Regulation

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