PacifiCorp RTO project team Presentation to SSG-WI Planning WG PDX Business Center, 7/31/02

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PacifiCorp RTO project team Presentation to
SSG-WI Planning WG PDX Business Center, 7/31/02

• Economic Assessment of
• Generation Transmission Expansion Scenarios in
  WECC

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Models used in Power Market analysis
A wide range - some old, some new...

• Econometric models - stochastic models that
  correlate trades and prices to time of year,
  weather or hydro conditions, fuel price supply,
  etc. Used for predicting forward price curves,
  spark spreads, price spikes, etc. For MA
  analysis, project assessment, for assessing
  credit risk, risk management, trade analytics and
  support, etc, etc
• Game theory models - KBS-based models that
  simulate traders behavior (always within the
  rules!). Used for developing/testing trading
  strategies for stress testing of market designs,
  detecting/monitoring unusual trades, etc.
• Power market models - that optimize
  centrally-dispatched markets or minimize
  traders production costs in meeting their load
  service obligations within transmission rights
  or price transmission rights/congestion rents,
  etc.
• System planning tools - for generator
  interconnection design and impact studies for
  network expansion planning, for computing
  flowpath ratings, etc

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Network models in Power Market analysis

• Single Area
• OK for small control areas
• No congestion
• Ignores transmission
• Bubble view
• Major flowpaths only
• Transportation model
• Better, but
• Power doesnt flow like that!
• Complete network
• Very complex
• All network constraints
• Only way to track line flows
• Still an approximation...

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Trade-off in Market vs Network modeling
Trading models
Production simulation models
Power market models
System planning models
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Power Market simulation overview
Market Modeling Market Simulation Scenario
Analysis
Goal To predict the economic and
physical performance of large power networks
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The heart of ABB-MS
DC Optimal Power Flow Transmission Constrained
Economic Dispatch with linearized power flow
model

• Why Linearize?
• Speed Enables fast Linear Program (LP) solution
• Convergence LP always a convex problem
• Accuracy Flows on HV circuits modeled well
• Acceptability Generally recognised by Industry

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Transmission Network Constraints

• Thermal Line Limits
• Maximum MW on any line
• Percentage of MVA rating
• HVDC
• Fixed or controllable
• Maximum flow different for each direction
• Limits on MW changes per hour
• Phase Shifter
• MW Capacity
• Angular limits
• Limits on angle changes per hour
• Interface Constraints
• Limit on net flows on selected lines
• Models a variety of operating constraints
• Reliability, Angular/Voltage stability, Area
  Interchange Limits

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Transmission Network Constraints

• Combined Generation Transmission Nomograms
• Interface limits can be a function of generation
  variables
• Online capacity
• Reserve capability, etc
• Example Southern California import nomogram

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Output Summary
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Where were at with ABB-MS

• Hand over to Kurt
• various plots of Y2004 flowpath flows, generator
  nodal price differences, load factors,etc
• on-line demo of selected results

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Keys to successful use of COUGER

• Easy to change data
• Large Base Case data set
• Small, modular, incremental changes
• Similar data stored/displayed together
• Describe changes from Base Case to User
• Easily interpreted results
• Summary file Physical and Financial Performance,
  with or without time element
• Summary file highlight important constraints
• Graphical representation of results
• Case comparison Summary and Graphical

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Keys to successful use of COUGER

• Flexibility User selects which
• hours to run
• entire year, one hour, sampled weeks, etc
• constraints to model (accuracy vs. time)
• Monitored Lines
• Interface constraints
• Individually, or as Groups via database filters
• results to view
• Clearing Price for selected buses
• Flows, Shadow Prices for selected lines and
  flowpaths
• Total generation, load and average clearing price
  for selected areas
• Total Flexibility via User-controlled proprietary
  database

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Tasks to complete Planning WGs analysis...

• Given the necessary data, the steps would be
• Set up a complete data set for Y2008 generators
  (capacity, costs, availability) loads by control
  area (annual energy, monthly maximum demand and
  hourly demand profile) and transmission network
  (a complete WSCC system or other as specified by
  WG)
• Run economic analyses using ABB-MS for a set of
  scenarios (fuel prices, new generator type and
  location, wet/dry hydro production) as specified
  by the WG
• Report to the Planning WG, on a timetable to be
  mutually agreed, the prospective resource
  utilization, system flows, congestion incidence
  and cost, and other agreed economic indicators
• Repeat the above analysis for Y2018,
  incorporating a specified set of transmission
  expansion options, taking account of agreed load
  growth and generator expansion/ fuel price
  options

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What the Planning WG would need to do...

• Provide a complete transmission network data
  (e.g. in the form of a WSCC loadflow case in
  PSS/E format), circuit thermal ratings and
  interface/flowpath ratings, phase-shifter and
  HVDC link data.
• Provide load data (monthly energy and max demand,
  hourly load profile by control area/utility,
  annual growth rates). Dispatchable load data.
• Provide generator data (type, capacity, heat
  rates, ramp rates, outage rates, OM, and fuel
  costs, hydro production MW/hr in wet and dry
  conditions).
• Specify the new generators (type, location,
  commissioning date, economic data and expected
  performance data) to be added
• Specify the transmission expansions to be studied
  (terminations, circuit data, ratings and
  commissioning date), and the combination/sequence
  of generation/ transmission projects selected to
  be studied.
• Also, the Planning WG would have to compute the
  effect on interface/ flowpath ratings of the
  specified combination of generation/transmission
  expansion projects that are selected to be
  studied.
• We are content to leave the interpretation of
  analysis results and the compilation of all
  reports to the Planning WG