When HOPE Goes Flat: Redesigning Schools for 21st Century Learning

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When HOPE Goes FlatRedesigning Schools for 21st
Century Learning

• 2005 HOPE Institute
• Nashua, NH
• August 9, 2005
• Thomas E. Welch

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• Goals for the time together
• Look at the familiar in unfamiliar ways
• Take a look at U.S. school data
• Look at the what, how and why of change
• Understand the implications of a
• flat New Hampshire and a flat world.

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• Where are we?

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• Data reveal an interesting glimpse into U.S.
  students performance and how the U.S. stacks up
  to the rest of the world.

The following slides courtesy of The Ed Trust
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12th Grade Achievement In Math and Science is Up
Somewhat
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High School Achievement Math and Science NAEP
Long-Term Trends
Source NAEP 1999 Trends in Academic Progress.
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In Reading, 12th Grade Achievement is Headed
Downward
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HIGH SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT READING AND
WRITINGNAEP Long-Term Trends
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What about different groups of students?During
seventies and eighties, much progress.
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Gaps Narrow 1970-88NAEP Reading 17 Year-Olds
Source US Department of Education, National
Center for Education Statistics. NAEP 1999 Trends
in Academic Progress (p. 107) Washington, DC US
Department of Education, August 2000
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Gaps Narrow 1973-86NAEP Math Scores, 13 Year-Olds
Source US Department of Education, National
Center for Education Statistics. NAEP 1999 Trends
in Academic Progress (p. 108) Washington, DC US
Department of Education, August 2000
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Between 1988-90, that progress came to a haltand
gaps began to widen once again.
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NAEP Reading, 17 Year-Olds
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NAEP Math, 17 Year-Olds
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How much learning takes place at each level?
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Students Make More Growth Grade 5 to 8 than
Grade 9 to 12
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Academic GrowthGrades 5-8, 9-12
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Value Added in High School Declined During the
Nineties
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Value Added Declining in High School Math...
Age 13-17 Growth
Source NAEP 1999 Trends in Academic Progress
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Still
Age 13-17 Growth
Source Main NAEP 1996, 2000
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Reading Students Entering Better Prepared, But
Leaving Worse
Source NAEP 1996 Trends in Academic Progress
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Hormones?
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Students in Other Countries Gain far More in
Middle and High School
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TIMSS
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Source NCES 1999-081R, Highlights From TIMSS
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Source NCES 1999-081R, Highlights From TIMSS
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PISA
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US 15 Year-Olds Rank Near Middle Of The Pack
Among 32 Participating Countries 1999
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2003 U.S. Ranked 24th out of 29 OECD Countries
in Mathematics
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
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Problems are not limited to our high-poverty and
high-minority schools . . .
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U.S. Ranks Low in the Percent of Students in the
Highest Achievement Level (Level 6) in Math
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
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U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the
Math Achievement of the Highest-Performing
Students
Students at the 95th Percentile
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
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U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29OECD Countries in the
Math Achievement of High-SES Students
Source Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results, data
available at http//www.oecd.org/
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One measure on which we rank high?Inequality!
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Performance Of U.S.15 Year-Olds Highly Variable
Of 27 OECD countries
Source OECD, Knowledge and Skills for Life
First Results From PISA 2000, 2001.
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Where are we now?
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Where Are We Now? 4th Grade Reading All Students
2003
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP) Summary Data Tables
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By Race, Ethnicity NAEP 4th Grade Reading 2003
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP)
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By Family Income NAEP 4th Grade Reading 2003
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP)
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Where Are We Now? 8th Grade Math All Students
2003
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP) Summary Data Tables
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By Race, Ethnicity NAEP 8th Grade Math 2003
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP)
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By Family Income NAEP 8th Grade Math 2003
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP)
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These gaps begin before students arrive at our
door
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But, rather than organizing our system to
ameliorate this problem, we organize it to
exacerbate this problem.
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End of high school?
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African American and Latino 17 Year Olds Do Math
at Same Levels As White 13 Year Olds
Source NAEP 1999 Long Term Trends Summary Tables
(online)
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African American and Latino 17 Year Olds Read at
Same Levels as White 13 Year Olds
Source Source NAEP 1999 Long Term Trends
Summary Tables (online)
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These patterns are reflected, too, in high school
completion, college entry and college graduation
rates.
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Students Graduate From High School At Different
Rates, 2001
Source Jay P. Greene and Greg Forster, Public
High School Graduation and College Readiness
Rates in the United States, Manhattan Institute
for Policy Research, September 2003.
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ADD IT ALL UP...
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Of Every 100 White Kindergartners
(25-to 29-Year-Olds)
Source US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census. March Current Population Surveys,
1971-2001, in The Condition of Education 2002.
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Of Every 100 African American Kindergartners
(25-to 29-Year-Olds)
Source US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census. March Current Population Survey,
1971-2001, In The Condition of Education 2002.
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Of Every 100 Latino Kindergartners
(25-to 29-Year-Olds)
Source US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census. March Current Population Surveys,
1971-2001, In The condition of Education 2002.
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Of Every 100 American Indian/Alaskan Native
Kindergartners
(24 Year Olds)
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College Graduates by Age 26
Source Tom Mortenson, Research Seminar on Public
Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Post
Secondary, 1997.
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WHY?
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What We Hear Adults Say

• Theyre poor
• Their parents dont care
• They come to schools without breakfast
• Not enough books
• Not enough parents . . .

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But if theyre right, then why are poor and
minority children performing so high in...
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Some schools?
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• The good news . . .
• You are not alone!

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• For better or worse, New Hampshires challenges
  are a microcosm of Americas challenges.

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• One last data set about one of the most
  significant results of the lack of equity and the
  lack of performance by high school students in
  U.S. schools . . .

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The National Dropout Problem

• 488,000 U.S. High School students dropped out of
  school between October 1999 and October 2000
• If put on school busses they would have filled
  12,000 school busses to capacity

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• If lined up end to end the Dropout Caravan
  would have stretched 100 miles. . .
• farther than from Conway to Manchester.

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• Those busses are stuck in a mid 20th century
  traffic jam.
• But this isnt a mere traffic problem . . .
• This is an issue with serious economic
  implications for every community and state in the
  country.

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• Three aspects to consider
• Low educational attainment lost personal
  opportunities in life
• Lost earnings lost tax revenue
• Loss of opportunity is a problem that not only
  threatens the welfare of the individual, it
  threatens the welfare of the entire country.

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• U.S. Demographics are in rapid flux especially
  with the school-aged population . . .

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Minority to Majority

• Hispanic 12 to 25 (2025)
• These students tend to be the least well educated

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• So?

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• The needs of the 21st Century workforce have
  changed significantly.

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1997
1950
Unskilled 15
Skilled 20
Skilled 65
Professional 20
Unskilled 60
Professional 20
ThinkLink
National Summit on 21st Century Skills for 21st
Century Jobs
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• As if that werent enough . . .

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• Degree majors in our schools do not reflect an
  increasingly scientifically and mathematically
  dominated society . . .
• Non U.S. citizens represent a relatively small
  percentage of total U.S. student enrollments in
  post-secondary institutions, yet . . .

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• Of the 4 year degrees granted by U.S colleges and
  universities . . .
• Degrees to non U.S. Citizens
• Physical Sciences 43
• Mathematics 42
• Computer Science 46
• Physics 36
• Engineering 56

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• 5 of all degrees in the U.S. were in the
  sciences and engineering (and approximately half
  of those were to noncitizens)
• 60 of all degrees in Asia were in the sciences
  and engineering
• China alone granted 350,000 degrees in biotech in
  2005!

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• 90 of the worlds graduates in science and
  engineering will be in Asia in 2010.
• These graduates will be high skill/low wage
  professionals compared to Americas high
  skill/high wage professionals.

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• District improvement plans focus on the how of
  change
• From examination of root causes to discussion of
  the root canal frustrations

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• Will the changes you are proposing produce good
  schools in New Hampshire?
• The key is in the identified systemic approach to
  school change.

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• Will producing good schools through this systemic
  approach be enough for
• New Hampshires future?

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• Redefining the enemy
• Jim Collins in Good to Great
• We dont have great schools, principally because
  we have good schools.

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• In New Hampshire are you on the road
• From Good to . . .
• Gooder ?

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• Lets get real and drill down
• The frustration over the paradigm shift
• WHAT DO YOU WANT?

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The need to view things differently
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• The first place where the shift hits the fan .
  . .
• The Schools
• What used to define a good school?
• What defines a good school today?
• The difference for the first time a
  performance metric was applied to school

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• What is the plan for communicating the
  school/district change in expectations?
• Is the plan focused to hit ALL constituents?

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• Lets talk about where the shift is going to
  hit next . . .
• The classroom

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• What used to define a good classroom?
• Who doesnt remember . . .
• Mr. Ditto from Teachers?

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• Teachers feel caught between the vice of school
  accountability and traditional expectations for
  keeping the system running
• Who is helping the classroom teacher understand
  the shift and how that changes and redefines ALL
  roles and expectations?

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• Remember the difficulty with SPED scores can
  only be understood in the context of the value of
  success for each individual student.
• Ignore this concept and you begin to cherry
  pick for compliance with state and national
  targets

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• In terms of leadership focus, is it about all
  students learning. . . ?

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• Characteristics of Effective Leadership The two
  studies we have been citing (Beyond Islands of
  Excellence and Characteristics of Improved School
  Districts) highlight several key characteristics
  of effective leadership.
•  
• 1.       Focus on all students learning   The
  consensus is that effective leadership provides a
  clear and meaningful focus on all students
  learning.  This means that the district
  articulates clear goals that promote excellence
  and equity in the teaching-learning process and
  that hold schools accountable for their mission
  of ensuring that all students do learn to high
  standards.   This focus on student learning is
  often encapsulated in the value high
  expectations for all students.   But for this
  value to be meaningful, it must be translated
  into action.   At the district level, this means,
  first and foremost, a commitment to instructional
  improvement. This can be recognized by ongoing,
  thorough, data-based inquiry to determine
  system-wide needs related to improving
  instruction for every student followed by focused
  allocation of resources (human fiscal and
  physical) toward meeting those needs and a system
  to monitor and adjust.

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• OR instead is it about
• each student learning?

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• Do teachers in your districts understand the
  difference in the goals of consistency of
  instruction and
• consistency of results?

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• Do teachers understand why the identified
  achievement gaps are a serious problem?
• Do they feel empowered to really make a
  difference with those targeted students?

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• Many plans mention the need for alignment of
  curriculum, instruction and assessment.
• Remember, in the old world, none of this was
  needed to stay in the system.

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• When teachers are caught in the transition
  without understanding the why of change,
  frustration results.
• Why? cannot be answered with
• The District says we have to
• The State says we have to or
• The administration says we have to

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• The instructional decisions that have the
  greatest impact are made day to day in the
  classroom.
• --Rick Stiggins

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• Curriculum maps can help administrators get a
  better handle of what SHOULD be going on in a
  classroom, but they dont do much for student
  success when the door is closed if a teacher
  doesnt understand the why.

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• In the 20th century, it may still be impossible
  for the administrator to know whats going on
  with teaching. . .
• but now they can tell whats going on with
  student learning.

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• The risk when the why is unclear is compliance
  of the same sort that students give teachers for
  the same reason . . .
• They may not understand,
• They may not agree,
• BUT
• They will do it if they have to.

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• Are you ready to have the shift hit the
  students?
• What used to define a successful student?
• What are the student implications for the needed
  changes in student expectations?

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• Students at all levels quickly learn how to
  play school so that usually teachers and
  students get what they want.

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• The best example is the uncomfortable truth. .
  .
• High Schools are about the economics of the
  diploma

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• Students buy a diploma with X number of
  credits.
• Each credit is purchased with 125-130 hours of
  class time.
• Credits are not dependent on learning.

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• Grade inflation is inherent because grades are
  not tied to any standards
• Who has not heard of extra credit for NCAA pools?
  
• Cans of food at Thanksgiving?
• Attending regularly or
• turning in homework, regardless of its
  correctness?

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• When students accumulate enough credits they can
  cash in credits for their diploma.

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• Mystified by
• Senior Year Lite?
• We offer a special deal to our best and brightest
  . . .

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• Instead of spending 25 credits for your diploma,
  we think you should spend 30 or 32!
• AND . . .
• you can . . .

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• Take courses we warn you will be very difficult
• Will take a lot of your free time
• Endanger your GPA
• Have the potential for negative financial rewards
  by endangering your scholarship (and KEES) money

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• Who are the slow learners??

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• So I ask . . .
• Who is handling the student shift?

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This is a challenging shift for everyone in
education
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• As if all this werent enough . . .
• Larger changes are on the horizon and headed our
  way. . .

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• What does the future hold?

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• Citizens of New Hampshire must come to understand
  that they are part of a world economy, and the
  world is changing faster than ever before.
• Huge shifts are taking place now that will be
  felt for many decades.

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• How will you lead education for students who will
  live in a world you have not experienced?

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• As teachers struggle to make sure students learn
  facts that they think are essential, keep this in
  mind . . .

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• It took approximately 50,000 years for humanity
  to acquire one unit of knowledge
• It took 1500 years to double that first knowledge
  base.
• By the early 70s mankind was doubling knowledge
  every 6 years
• Human knowledge is expected to be doubling EVERY
  year by 2012
• (the year this years 6th graders will graduate)
• (assuming mankind had one unit of knowledge in
  the year AD 1)

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• The Internet currently doubles in size every 120
  days and more than 80 of the sites that will
  exist a year from now dont exist today.

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• 80 of the jobs todays kindergartners will
  occupy in the future dont exist yet.
• How are you getting them ready for those jobs?

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• The only sustainable competitive advantage is
  the ability to be able to learn faster than your
  competition.
• --Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline

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• Start thinking about the future of education in
  your districts . . .

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• IF you have clearly defined standards for
  students, and assess students on the basis of
  those standards, then . . .
• what about time?
• what about place?
• IF content is seen as a context for learning and
  not as the goal, then what??

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• The coming tsunami in public education

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• The three factors that will change the future of
  education . . .

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• The identification of standards
• -- agreement on the product

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• The use of Common End of Course Assessments
• --the first ever introduction of a quality
  guarantee

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• Technology
• Even the education world is going to go flat

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• What was the effect of outsourcing on the major
  industries of the United States?

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• Is education immune to outsourcing?

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• Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of
  publicationsTuesday, Mar 08, 2005

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• Education outsourcing wave set to hit India
  Moumita Bakshi Bharat Kumar
• New Delhi/Chennai , March 7
• SKILLED manpower in India is a major attraction
  for foreign entrepreneurs to set up operations
  here. Now, Indian entrepreneurs are latching on
  to the very people who give India its skilled
  manpower - namely,
• skilled teachers.

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• Tuitions outsourcing is an opportunity that
  beckons India. Several countries are turning to
  providers who directly, or through their Indian
  arm, employ teachers for tutoring through the
  Internet.
• And it's not a small ripple. Analysts estimate
  the market for tutoring for competitive
  examinations in the US at 20 billion, while the
  education market itself is pegged at about 800
  billion.

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• "Various education processes are being outsourced
  within the US," said Mr Satya Narayanan R,
  Chairman of education service provider Career
  Launcher. These typically include curriculum
  design, academic pedagogy, content development
  and actual delivery.
• The US, which has always been at the forefront of
  innovation, is likely to be the biggest consumer
  of these services.

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• The American high school is obsolete.
• Bill Gates, address to National Governors
  Conference, February, 2005
• Were pretty good like we are!
• KY supt reaction to Gates at the
  Superintendents CEO Network Meeting, Louisville,
  KY March 3, 2005

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• Are people in your districts and broader school
  communities also saying Were pretty good like
  we are?

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• When the rate of change on the outside exceeds
  the rate of change on the inside, the end is in
  sight.
• -- Jack Welch, CEO General Electric

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• If the end is in sight, is anyone looking?

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• What are the implications for you as education
  leaders in New Hampshire??

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• How do you go from being an organization focused
  on powerful teaching, (the 20th century option .
  . .)
• to an organization focused on great learning,
  the 21st century need?

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Changing the Essential Questions

• You used to ask How do we change our schools
  to make them better?
• Now you must ask How can our schools provide
  the best learning opportunities for each
  individual student in our system?

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• The very thing that frightens us today, the
  change curve, the phenomenal rate of change is an
  ally.
• Its not a change curve, its a possibility
  curve. The times of most change always hold the
  most possibility.
• DeWitt Jones

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We can do it!
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There ARE alternative ways to think about
education in New Hampshire in the 21st century .
. .
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. . .Ride the wave of possibility!
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