IRAN and The United States of America

1
IRAN andThe United States of America

• Future is Foggy
• Abbas Maleki
• Presented at
• Islamic Society of Professors
• Sharif University of Technology
• Feb. 28, 2005

2
Monroe Doctrine, US Isolationism, 1823

• 1851 Friendship and Navigation Treaty between
  Iran and US (Amir Kabir era)
• 1856 Establishment of US Political Mission in
  Bushehr
• 1883 US Embassy was opened in Tehran
• 1884 Iran Embassy in Washington (Haji
  Washington)
• 1906 Irans Constitution Revolution
• 1910 Morgan Shuster, American finance advisor to
  Irans Government

3
End of Monroeism, 1914

• 1919 US Statement against British-Iran Agreement
  
• 1921 Arthur Chester Millspough Second finance
  advisor
• 1921 Coup detat by Reza Shah
• 1921 Law of Concession of North Oil Resources to
  US Sinclair Company
• 1924 Assassination of Major Robert Imberie, US
  Deputy Consular in Tehran

4
The Third Power

• 1941 Occupation of Iran by Allies
• 1942 US sent advisory teams and missions to Iran
• 1943 6 American missions and centers of
  influence were located in Iran
• 1943 PGSC consisted 30000 noncombatant American
  troops who aided the USSR providing goods
• 1946 Soviet Withdrawal and US Nuclear Ultimatum
  

5
American Interventionism

• 1950 Nationalization of Irans Oil Industry
• US and Dr. Mosaddiq
• 1952 Operation Ajax, Dr. Wilber Mission
• 1953 Coup detat of August 1953 Momentous event
  between two states

6
Politics of Retrenchment

• 1954 Oil Concessions
• Baghdad Pact UK, Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq, Iran,
  (with support of US), Political and economic
  alliance
• 1956 SAVAK
• 1958 Ghasem Revolution in Iraq
• 1958 CENTO Pact without Iraq, then METO
• 1958 Shah visited Washington
• 1959 Bilateral Defense Agreement between Iran
  and US
• 1960 Military Takeover in Turkey

7
American Style of Reform

• 1960 Shah supported Nixon in US presidential
  Campaign
• 1961 J. F. Kennedy became US President with
  pledge to help the peoples in other countries
  because of their rights, Alliance for Progress
• 1961 Khrushchev warned Lippmann to turbulent
  situation in Iran
• 1961 Ali Amini as Prime Minister decided to do
  reforms
• 1962 VP Johnson made visit to Tehran
• 1963 Referendum on Shahs six-point reform
  program
• 1963 Khordad,15 Movement, Position of Ayatollah
  Khomeini and then exile to Turkey.

8
US Concentration on Pro-Pahlavis Policies

• 1964 Capitulation Irans Majlis approved a law
  provided American military personnel and their
  dependents stationed in Iran with full diplomatic
  immunity
• 1964 Exile of Imam Khomeini in Turkey
• 1965 PM Mansour was shot and Shah was attacked,
  both for Capitulation
• 1967 Shahs visit to US
• 1968 Shah and Hoveyda visited US
• 1969 High Military Expenditure 32 F-4 had been
  sold to Iran, two naval fighters,..

9
Anti-Americanism Growth in Iran

• 1965 Mehdi Bahars Book US as Colonial player
• 1970 Tehran Investment Seminar, David
  Rockefeller and 34 US industrialists
  participated.
• 1970 Ayatollah Saidi condemned this seminar was
  tortured to death by SAVAK
• 1971 Inauguration of commemoration of 2500 years
  of Persian monarchy. VP Spiro Agnew represented
  US.
• 1972 Nixon-Kissinger visit to Tehran, Purchasing
  F-14 and F-15 by Iran
• 1973 Joint Economic Commission of US Iran.
  Only in 1975, the economic agreement between two
  countries was 15 billions
• 1973 Richard Helms, former Director of CIA
  appointed as US Ambassador to Tehran as CIA
  middle East Center
• 1973 Col. L. Hawkins, US military advisor was
  killed by armed political group in Tehran.
• 1975 US Air Force Col. P. Shaffer and J. Turner
  were assassinated.
• 1976 Three American working on electronic
  surveillance system (IBEX), were killed.

10
America in Bottleneck

• 1977 William Sullivan was appointed as US
  Ambassador in Tehran.
• 1977 Despite of Shahs support of Republicans,
  Democrat Jimmy Carter took the White House. He
  urged on Human Rights.
• 1977 US Secretary of State Cyrus Vance traveled
  to Tehran, pledged to sell 1.8 billion of 160
  F-16, 1.23 billion AWACS to Iran.
• 1977 When Shah and Farah with J. Carter stood on
  the White House lawn, uncooperative breezes
  carried tear gas directly to the face of Shah.
• 1979 General Robert Huyser, Deputy Commander in
  chief of the US European Command, traveled to
  Iran and described US design for choosing one PM
  from other side and Shahs leaving the country.
• 1979 Shah fled Iran for the final time.
• 1979 Bazargan and Yazdi met Brzezinski in
  Algiers
• 1979 American Embassy had been taken by students.

11
An Overview of US-Iran Relations

• 1972-1977
• The value of US military sales to Iran amounted
  to 16.2 billion
• The military advisors reached to 35000
• Iran as a pillar of US two pillars policy in
  Persian Gulf played its role in
• -Dzofar Crises
• -Iraqi Kurdistan
• -Somalia

12
US and Irans Revolution

• 1979 Nov. 14 National Emergency by Carter
• 1979 Nov. 14 International Economic Emergency
  (Powers Act), US freezes Iranian assets.
• 1980 Apr. 7 Carter broke diplomatic relations
  with Iran
• 1980 Apr. 25 US hostage rescue attempt failed
  in Tabas desert

13
Iran-Iraq War and the Role of US

• 1984 US Marine Headquarters in Lebanon exploded
  by suicide bomber
• 1984 Iran listed as supporter of International
  Terrorism.
• 1987 Iranian goods were prohibited to import to
  US, even carpet, pistachio,
• 1991 Law on weapons non-proliferation to Iran
  and Iraq
• 1991 Ban Iranian ships entrance to US ports
• 1992 Ban on export of chemical, biological,
  nuclear and sophisticated weapons to Iran and
  Iraq

14
The Age of Sanctions

• 1995 Prevention of participations of US
  companies in Irans oil and gas fields
  development
• 1995 Clinton decree on sanction of Iran oil and
  gas fields CONOCO contract cancelled.
• 1996 D'Amato Bill Ban on Iran and Libya oil
  gas investment more than 40 millions
• 1997 ILSA Ban on more than 20 millions,
  Extraterritoriality
• 1998 President Khatami interview with CNN
• 1998 Suspension of ILSA for European companies
  in G8 Summit
• 1998 US removed Iran and Malaysia from the
  narcotics producers list
• 1999 Law for mandatory report on list of
  companies, countries or individuals who help Iran
  on nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons to
  the Congress each 6 months

15
US accusations against Iran

• Iran supports the international terrorism
• Iran violated human rights
• Iran opposes to Arab Israeli peace process
• Iran is going to have access to nuclear weapons
• Iran is producing Weapons of Mass Destruction
  (WMD) like chemical, biological, and missile
  launchers

16
Models for US to deal with Iran

• Leadership
• Isolation
• Engagement
• Sticks and Carrots
• Sticks
• Attack

17
Leadership

• Police must deal with all of the guys
• Without a combined approach with the Europeans,
  the Iranians will drive a truck between the two
  sides and come out a winner.
• United States should make clear what it is
  prepared to give Iran in return for indefinite
  suspension of Iran's enrichment program.
  Geoffrey Kemp
• Iran is a leader within Islamic World, and a
  major producer of oil and gas
• Iran had not attacked its neighbors. In fact, it
  had been the victim of Iraqi aggression and
  chemical strikes
• Within the Administration, we were intrigued by
  the possibility of an official dialogue with the
  constitutional authorities. Madeleine Albright,
  Dec. 17, 2001

18
Isolation

• This model proposes the best way to deal with
  Iran is to neglect Iran.
• Irans internal problems weaken Irans potential
  and tend to chaotic situation in the society.

19
Engagement

• The revolution in Iran has been in power for over
  20 years
• It is not in danger of being overthrown.
• No significant opposition movement exists
• Irans laws are becoming more investor-friendly
  and foreign companies are responding.
• Robert pelletreau major issues for US in the
  21st century are international terrorism,
  narcotics trafficking, and the spread of nuclear
  weapons as three urgent will require cooperation
  between US and Iran to be dealt effectively

20
Sticks and Carrots

• "The reason we're having these discussions is
  because they were caught enriching uranium after
  they had signed a treaty saying they wouldn't
  enrich uranium. Bush in Bratislava, Feb. 2005
• Bush May Weigh the Use of Incentives to Dissuade
  Iran,
• Bush hints U.S. may join in Iran concessions
• Bush hints at talks rather than threats to rein
  in Iran NYT, Feb. 25, 2005
• U.S. Military Aircraft Not Flying over Iran, DoD
  Spokesman Says, Feb. 22, 2005

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Sticks and Carrots (2)

• US and EU
• Bush agreed after his summit meetings in Brussels
  and Mainz this week to reconsider the US
  position.
• U.S. policy is malevolent neglect.
• By not joining the talks, US administration can
  say I told you so if they fail.
• The Europeans, will say the reason they failed
  is because the United States did not join us.

22
Sticks and Carrots (3)

• Possible Carrots
• for Iran from the United States
• Help joining the World Trade Organization
• The sale of spare parts for Iran's decrepit fleet
  of Boeing airliners
• The unfreezing of Iranian assets held in the USA.

23
Sticks

• ILSA Iran Libya Sanction Act
• -US has used 104 sanctions from First World
  War
• -From 1993, US has used 61 sanctions to other
  countries.
• Caspian oil and gas transportation via Iran is
  banned
• Radio Farda
• IMF and WB loans for Iran are difficult
• WTO membership
• Sending the file to the UN Security Council
• Legal cases in US courts

24
Security Council

• A confidential position paper being circulated by
  the Americans to the other board members called
  for a new written report on Iran by the Board's
  June meeting.
• It urged that meeting to take further action if
  needed'' against Iran - in effect a demand that
  Tehran be hauled before the U.N. Security Council
  if there is any indication it was defying the
  agency board on nuclear matters. AP, Feb. 26, 2005

25
Legal and judicial cases against Iran in US Courts

• Terry Anderson, kidnapped in Lebanon, claims 100
  millions from Iran
• Sicipio, 20 millions
• Reed, 16 millions
• Kabubson, 9 millions
• Their wives each 10 millions
• Alisa Flato, who was killed in Israel, Federal
  court ordered to give to her family 247 millions
  of Irans assets

26
Legal Affairs

• The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is
  overseeing about 80 investigations of foreign
  arms brokers, Iranian military agents and U.S.
  companies suspected of trying to smuggle to Iran
  sensitive systems or technology that could be
  used for military purposes.
• The export to Iran of such so-called dual-use
  technologies is banned. A dozen cases involving
  alleged exports to Iran are now before U.S.
  courts. Wall Street Journal, Feb. 26, 2005

27
US Presidents Precedent

• What did behave US,
• before its attack to Iraq?
• Slightly more than two years ago, George Bush
  invariably answered every question regarding his
  plans to attack Iraq by saying that he didn't
  have such plans on his desk.But by March, 2003,
  those plans had found their way to his desk
• " The lesson is that a U.S. attack is never
  publicized in advance, certainly not if it cannot
  be legitimized. It will be a surprise.

28
Inside Iran

• Iran should have nuclear knowledge but not the
  bomb, says Hossein Ibrahim, a clerk in a
  hardware store in Tehran.
• He, like many other Iranians interviewed here,
  says Iran needs the capability for nuclear energy
  and to deter enemies from attacking.
• There is broad public discontent with Iran's
  Islamic government, but little or no popular
  sentiment against the country's nuclear
  development program. USA Today, Feb. 22, 2005

29
Irans Reaction

• Iran will guarantee it is not making weapons.
• It is willing to remain a member of the non-
  proliferation treaty and give the IAEA access to
  all nuclear sites.
• In return, Iran wants an end to its isolation by
  Europe and full engagement in political,
  security, economic and technological fields.
• If we have 100 billion euros in European
  investment in Iran, and if we have Iranian
  investment in Europe, Iran would never even think
  to divert the nuclear enrichment because the
  damage would be huge for Iran. Hossein
  Mousavian, USA Today, Feb. 22, 2005

30
Real Situation

• American companies, especially electronics
  manufacturers like Hewlett-Packard are doing
  land-office business in Iran.
• They operate through subsidiaries in Dubai. 
• American companies never stopped. We just operate
  through our Canadian and European subsidiaries." 
  
• This calls the American economic embargo of Iran
  into very severe question.
• It looks like the only people whose "economic
  activity" with Iran is restricted are writers and
  scholars--a pretty poor, pretty ineffective
  policy. William Beeman, Feb. 2005

31
Attack

• On Tuesday, February 22, 2005, President George
  Bush said that the idea that he was preparing to
  attack Iran was ridiculous, but that all
  options are on the table. NYT, Feb. 24, 2005
• Is it inconsistent
• Bushs inconsistency is very logical and it is
  based on Clausewitz's theory of war on which he
  believes all military attacks should be surprise
  attacks and the country should purposefully
  mislead the "enemy" into the belief that they are
  open to negotiations (such as the statement that
  all of our options are open) while they are
  preparing for war.

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War Game (1)
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War Game (2)
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War Game (3)
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Range of Shahab 3
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US military in Asia
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War Game (4)
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3 military Scenarios
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First scenario (1)
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First scenario (2)
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First scenario (3)
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Second Scenario
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Second Scenario (2)
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Second Scenario (3)
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Second Scenario (4)
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Irans Reaction
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Israeli Factor

• Israel has been privately pressing Washington to
  solve the Iran nuclear problem in a hint that
  Tel Aviv may be left with no choice but to bomb
  Iranian nuclear facilities, defense officials
  say. AP, Feb. 23, 2005
• Israel Air Force Commander-in-Chief Major General
  Eliezer Shakedi said Monday that Israel must be
  prepared for an air strike on Iran in light of
  its nuclear activity. Haaretz, Feb. 21, 2005

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Environments Reaction
49
Regions Reaction
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The Coat of the WAr
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The Cost of War in Iraq

• According to a report on the cost of the war in
  Iraq released last week by the Democratic staff
  of the House Budget Committee, the war and
  ongoing insurgency could cost the United States
  between US461 billion and 646 billion by 2015,
  depending on the scope and duration of
  operations. Asia Times, Feb. 2005

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Cognitive War
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Cognitive War (2)
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Cognitive War (3)
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Cognitive War (4)
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War in Media
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War in Media (2)
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War in Media (3)
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War in Media (4)
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War in Media (5)
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War in Media (6)

• Iran Said to Acquire Knowledge on WeaponsBy
  GEORGE JAHN .c The Associated PressVIENNA,
  Austria (AP) - Iran, through the black market
  network, had accumulated all the knowledge it
  needed by the late 1980s to set up technology
  that can be used to make atomic weapons,
  diplomats familiar with the work of the U.N.
  nuclear watchdog agency said Saturday.The
  diplomats, who are familiar with the work of the
  Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency,
  spoke to The Associated Press two days before
  the IAEA board meets on Iran and other potential
  world nuclear concerns.An agency investigation
  during the past two years previously established
  that Iran ran a clandestine nuclear program for
  nearly two decades, including working on uranium
  enrichment - which can be used to make
  weapons.The diplomats, who requested
  anonymity, suggested that the new revelations
  were significant because they indicated Iran had
  full possession of enrichment know-how from the
  black market network run by Pakistan's Abdul
  Qadeer Khan earlier than previously believed.
  2/26/2005

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War in Media (7)

• Official Admits Iran May Hide Nuclear Program In
  Tunnels
• Iran may be hiding its nuclear technology
  inside special tunnels because of threats of
  attack by the United States, Tehran's chief
  nuclear negotiator said in an interview published
  Friday.
• Hassan Rowhani, who has been negotiating with
  Germany, Britain and France over Iran's uranium
  enrichment program, was asked by an interviewer
  for the daily Le Monde "Is it accurate that Iran
  has built tunnels meant to serve Iran's nuclear
  activities?"
• Rowhani responded that reports Iran was
  building tunnels to hide its nuclear technology
  "could be true," he said. International Herald
  Tribune February 26, 2005

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Conclusion

• US attack against Iran is serious
• Iran must design policies to prevent any
  escalation of tension between two countries.
• The role of elite and references in Irans
  society is pivotal
• Iranians in abroad also can play a significant
  role to show the realities to the Americans

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Energy resource periphery
Energy demand heartland
65

• Thank you
• maleki_at_sharif.edu