Why Hybrid Vehicles?

1
Why Hybrid Vehicles?

• If you want a CD or handout of this lecture
  contact
• L. David Roper
• Professor Emeritus of Physics
• Virginia Polytechnic Inst. St. Univ.
• roperld_at_vt.edu
• http//arts.bev.net/roperldavid

http//www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10642724 http//www.hy
bridcenter.org
2
Why Hybrid Vehicles?

• Emissions from vehicles is causing global warming
  and human sickness.
• Oil extraction peaked in the U.S. in the early
  1970s.
• Oil extraction is peaking for the world about
  now.
• Natural gas extraction peaked in the U.S. in the
  late 1970s.
• Natural gas extraction for the world will peak
  within a decade or two.
• Hybrid vehicles produce much less emissions and
  use about 50 less fuel than the average new
  vehicle in the same class. (Partial-Zero
  emissions)
• Plug-in Hybrid vehicles eventually will be
  charged at parking locations using renewable
  energy. They will use at least half as much fuel
  as do hybrids.

3
U.S. Oil Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as
1.5 times 2003 proven reserves.
Alaska increment
My birth.
It will mostly be gone when I am 100 years old.
Note the desperation jitter that occurs near an
extraction peak. U.S. oil discoveries peaked
about 1930.
4
Watch this grow in the future!
From International Energy Agency. ROW Rest of
the World. It is easy to see why the U.S. starts
wars for oil.
5
U. S. Oil Consumption and Imports
The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is estimated
to contain 7x109 barrels of oil about one year's
supply for the U.S., a mere blip on Alaska
extraction.
Alaska extraction peaked in 1988 about 10 years
after it started.
http//www.eia.gov
6
(No Transcript)
7
Natural Gas Facts

• The main component is methane (CH4).
• Natural Gas burns cleaner than gasoline or
  diesel. (I used butane/propane _at_ 0.17/gallon in
  my vehicle while in college 1954-8.)
• Power companies prefer natural gas rather than
  coal as a fuel because it is cleaner burning and
  easier to transport by pipelines.
• 33 of U.S. energy comes from natural gas.
• 95 of nitrogen fertilizer used by U.S. farmers
  is made from natural gas. Increasingly being
  imported because of high prices for U.S. natural
  gas.
• Natural gas can be made from sewage and
  extracted from land fills. Future power stations
  need to be located at land fills and sewage
  plants and/or where the heat generated can be
  used (co-generation).

8
U.S. Natural Gas Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as 5
times 2003 proven reserves.
About 15 of consumption imported, mostly from
Canada. Largest reserves are in Russia, Iran and
Qatar.
Note the desperation jitter.
9
World Oil Discoveries
http//www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html from
ExxonMobil
10
World Oil Extraction
Note the desperation jitter. World oil
discoveries peaked about 1965.
11
World Oil Extraction Per Capita
http//dieoff.com/page224.htm
Barrels of crude oil per capita per year for the
World. The prediction is calculated using fits to
World petroleum extraction rates and population.
12
1947-2004
http//www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif
13
The fit is to the data after Jan 2002.
http//www.eia.doe.gov Daily prices
http//www.wtrg.com/daily/clfclose.gif
14
A World economic slump or collapse will probably
keep oil prices from rising this rapidly.
http//www.eia.doe.gov
15

• Eventually the price of oil will approach some
  asymptote after only the dregs are left to be
  extracted from the Earth and after humans quit
  burning it and recycle it instead.

16
The fit is to the data after Jan 1999.
http//www.eia.doe.gov Daily prices
http//www.wtrg.com/daily/ngfclose.gif
17
What about Using Ethanol and/or Biodiesel for
Fuel?
Farmers must use biofuels to produce biofuels,
not petrofuels!
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2
005.v3.2.ppt
Closed carbon dioxide greenhouse gas cycle for
biofuels. Ethanol biodiesel are sustainable
forms of solar energy.
18
What if biodiesel were made from biowaste?
It takes 10 more energy to make gasoline than
gasoline yields as a fuel.
Current disagreement
Need to use ethanol to produce ethanol!
19
Ethanol as a Fuel

• Two mixtures of gasoline and alcohol are
  available at a few fuel stations in the United
  States E1010 ethanol (101 octane) by volume
  and E8585 ethanol (105 octane) by volume.
  Unfortunately, World production of ethanol for
  fuel has not been increasing very rapidly.
  http//www.e85fuel.com
• All vehicles since the 1970s are capable of
  burning E10, but filling stations are not widely
  available.
• One could create E10 at E85 filling stations by
  putting in about 8.35 of gasoline for each gallon
  of E85, as calculated from0.1 0.85e/(g
  0.15e)
• where e amount of E85
• and g amount of gasoline.
• A list of Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV) can be
  found at http//www.e85fuel.com/e85101/flexfuelveh
  icles.php .l
• In 2006 General Motors made 6 FFVs, Daimler
  Chrysler made 5, Ford made 5 and Nissan made 1.
  General Motors and Ford Motor Company are
  promising more in the future
• http//www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/e
  85/index.html http//media.ford.com/newsroom/featu
  re_display.cfm?release21949

The availability of E85 filling stations in 35
states in the United States. http//www.e85fuel.co
m/database/search.php
Virginia is way behind!
Flexible Fuel Vehicles can burn gasoline and E85
or diesel and biodiesel.
It costs 100 extra to make a vehicle FFV. Ford
plans to market a FFV version of the Escape
hybrid.
20
You get more than ethanol out of the process!
21
Brazil and Ethanolwww.khoslaventures.com/presenta
tions/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
E10
E85 or gasoline
22
Ethanol (Brazil) versus Gasoline
Prices(1980-gt2002 US/GigaJoule)
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2
005.v3.2.ppt
Ethanol in Brazil
Gasoline in Rotterdam
23
Brazil sugar-cane/ethanol learning curve Liters
of ethanol produced per hectare between 1975 to
2004 www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuel
s_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
24
Methanol Economy

• New efficient ways to create methanol ( dimethyl
  ether) from methane 2CH4O2-gt2CH3OH
• Create methanol from CO2 at power plants and from
  air
  2CO24H2O-gt2CH3OH3O2
• Use methanol (dimethyl ether) as replacements for
  gasoline (diesel) and in fuel cells.
  2CH3OH3O2-gt2CO24H2O
• Use methanol as replacement for petroleum for
  hydrocarbon products.
• Beyond Oil and Gas The Methanol Economy by Olah,
  Goeppert Prakash.

Problem Easier to capture CO2 at power plant
than from millions of vehicles!
25
Biodiesel Versus Diesel

• Both are 15-20 more efficient fuels than
  gasoline.
• Diesel emits more pollutants than gasoline
  because each molecule has about 5 to 7 more
  methane units. They can be eliminated by
  catalytic converters, as they have been in German
  vehicles.
• See http//www.whpubs.com/epa.pdf
• Biodiesel
• Can be used in diesel engines.
• Emits 50 less carbon monoxide and 78 less
  carbon dioxide than diesel.
• Contains no sulfur.
• Emits 75 less particulates than diesel.
• Emits more nitrous oxides (smog) than diesel, but
  they can be removed by catalytic converters.
• Ignites more readily in an engine but less
  readily in the atmosphere than does diesel.
• Biodiesel may be the transport fuel of the
  future.
• See Biodiesel by Greg Pahl and
  http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel and
• http//hybridiesel.blogspot.com/2005/02/good-di
  scussion-about-potential-of.html

26
Biodiesel from Algae

• Over 50 of algae mass is oil. Over 30 times more
  oil per area than other fuel plants (e.g.
  soybeans).
• Both fresh-water and salt-water algae.
• Most efficient photoreceptors of all plants.
• Liquid environment allows better access to carbon
  dioxide, nitrogen and minerals needed for growth.
• Arid zones are ideal because of high solar
  exposure.
• Locate beside power plants to absorb the carbon
  dioxide produced.
• Commercial bioreactors for producing oil from
  algae are expected soon.

27
World Biodiesel Production
Curve is 73 growth. Growth is faster.
Biodiesel Growing A New Energy Economy by Greg
Pahl
28
Comparison of Biodiesel to Petroleum
A 73 rate of growth in World biodiesel
production would equal World petroleum extraction
by about 2022.
29
Comparison of Vehicle Emissions for Renewable
versus Nonrenewable Sources of Energy
Decreasing emissions
Decreasing emissions
Decreasing emissions
Final Goal for Vehicles!
30
What about Coal?

• Can we extract and use coal for fuel without
  further destroying the environment?
• Can we learn how to store the carbon to use it
  later to ameliorate the plunge into the next ice
  age? (More about this later.)
• Can we get liquid and/or gas for transport fuel
  out of coal competitive to bioliquid and biogas?
• Can we use coal to build the infrastructure for
  sustainable energy sources?
• The U.S. national electric grid is 45 powered
  by coal. (Most of the rest is natural gas.)
• Full Electric vehicles reduce greenhouse
  emissions by 67, even though much of their power
  is produced by coal power plants.
• Most coal reserves are in Russia, China U.S.

31
Area between red curve and data area between
black and red curves.
Oil Extraction started.
In about 200 years we will be very low in coal
extraction.
The red curve is a fit using known 2003
recoverable reserves. The drawn black curve is a
rough optimistic guess about the future.
32
World will have coal to use about 100 years
longer than the U.S.
Eventual amount extracted 100,248x106 Short
Tons http//www.eia.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0701.html
33
What about Uranium?

• 15 of U.S. electrical energy is produced from
  nuclear power plants. In France it is 77.
• We will probably run short within the next
  century.
• http//afr.com/articles/2005/06/23/1119321845502.
  html
• Safe storage of radioactive waste for tens of
  thousands of years (well into the next Major Ice
  Age) is a major problem. See Deep Time by G.
  Benford.
• Use of uranium for Weapons of Mass Destruction,
  for radioactive terrorism and in warheads of
  standard weapons (Used extensively in the Gulf
  War, Bosnia War, Kosovo War Bush Iraq War) are
  major problems. See
• http//arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/Weapo
  nsRadioactive.htm

34
Fit to data using known reserves
Fit using 1.5 times reserves
Will run out sooner than coal.
35
Energy Returned over Energy Invested
Energy Source ERoEI (approximate)
Early U.S. oil 20
Early Middle East oil 30
Old oil fields 3-10
Hydropower 10
Coal 3-10
Nuclear 0-4
Wind 10-50
Solar 5-15
Geothermal 13
Tar sands 2
Biofuels lt 1? (current farming practices)
Environmental costs are not considered in
calculating these numbers!
http//www.eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.html htt
p//www.mnforsustain.org/nukpwr_tyner_g_net_energy
_from_nuclear_power.htm
36
A linear fit to the world energy consumption to
allow projection into the future.
37
Since World population is projected to start
leveling off, a constant increase in energy use
allows a modest increase in energy per capita.
The recent downturn in energy use per capita may
be why population growth is slowing.
38
Wind and Solar Energy Power History
39,300 MegaWatts in 2004 Growing at
25/year. Would take about 25 years to equal
total world power.
1,050 MegaWatts in 2004 Growing at
30/year. Would take about 35 years to equal
total world power.
http//www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/gwdebate.pdf
http//www.ecotopia.com/apollo2
World power used in 2004 15,000,000 MegaWatts
15 TeraWatts
Wind and photovoltaic power would have to grow at
70 per year to supply all world power in about
10 years!
Tehachapi Pass Wind Farm, California
39
Exponential Fit to World Wind Power
A 25 rate of growth would make World wind power
equal to World total power by 2030. As the Earth
moves into the next Major Ice Age within a few
thousand years, winds will increase greatly, so
much more wind power will be available.
40
Exponential Fit to World Photovoltaic Power
A 31 rate of growth would make World
photovoltaic power equal to World total power by
2037. As the Earth moves into the next Major Ice
Age within a few thousand years, cloudiness will
decrease greatly, so more solar power may be
available even though insolation will be smaller.
41

• We are like tenant farmers chopping down the
  fence around our house for fuel when we should be
  using nature's inexhaustible sources of energy -
  sun, wind and tide. I'd put my money on the sun
  and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope
  we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out
  before we tackle that.
• -- Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)

42
2006 Federal Tax Credits for Home Solar Energy
Installations

• Photovoltaic system or solar hot-water heater
  (not for swimming pool or hot tub).
• Federal tax credit equal to 30 of the systems'
  cost, up to a credit of 2,000 per system.
• Must be installed from Jan. 1, 2006 through Dec.
  31, 2007.
• A two-kilowatt photovoltaic system that meets
  most of the needs of a highly energy-efficient
  home should cost 16,000 to 20,000 installed.
• A five-kilowatt photovoltaic system for a more
  typical home should cost twice that it would
  eliminate the homes electricity bills.
• The Bible The Solar Electric House by Steven
  J. Strong and William G. Scheller, 1993.
• http//moneycentral.msn.com/content/Savinganddebt
  /Savemoney/P126521.asp

43
Conservation as a Vehicle Fuel

• Using proven technologies to improve vehicle
  efficiency can save half of projected 2025 use of
  oil in the U.S.
• The other half might be replaced by biofuels and
  saved natural gas (more efficient use of
  electricity).
• A 2025 vehicle fleet as efficient as the best
  hybrid vehicles now available would save
  one-sixth of projected oil use.
• See http//www.oilendgame.com and Winning the Oil
  End Game by Amory Lovins.

Global Warming next
44
Last Major Ice Age (120,000 years long)
Now
Last Interglacial
Homo sapiens evolved in Africa.
Current Interglacial (more about this later)
Previous Glacial Maximum Only Neanderthals in
Europe
Glacial Maximum
Last Neanderthal in Europe
(103 years)

• Until about 10,000 years ago the earth was in a
  long ice age for about 120,000 years, with
  several extreme variations in temperature on a
  10,000 year time scale. (There have been eight
  of these ice ages in the last one million years.)
• Human beings evolved into intelligent animals
  due to the extreme climate stresses.
• Why has it been so uniformly warm over the last
  10,000 years? (Compare to the last interglacial
  130,000 years ago.)

45
North-Pole Summer Insolation
Insolation solar energy striking the top of
Earths atmosphere. It has been declining for the
last 11,000 years so why has the temperature
remained so high?
North-Pole summer insolation is an important
factor because accumulation of ice in the Arctic
region is crucial to the Major Ice Ages and
summer is when the ice can melt. Note that it
peaked 11,000 years ago and will be at a minimum
in about 500 years.
46
Neolithic Global Warming due to Carbon Dioxide
Release
Caused by the onset of intensive
agriculture. (William F. Ruddiman, Scientific
American Mar 2005, p.34. Plows, Plagues and
Petroleum How Humans Took Control of Climate by
W. F. Ruddiman)
47
Neolithic Global Warming due to Methane Release
Caused by the onset of intensive rice farming in
Asia.
48
Anthropogenic Global Warming History and Future
Future Global Warming
Normal Interglacial
Plunge into next ice Age.
Modern Global Warming
I call this Neolithic global warming.
49
Why is Global Warming Bad?
The fast rise in temperature may trigger the next
major ice sooner than it would otherwise occur,
due to switching off Atlantic Ocean currents.
Neolithic Global Warming
Future Global Warming
Plunge into ice Age.
Modern Global Warming

• Rapid changes in temperature cause agriculture
  possibilities to switch from one area of the
  world to another. Thus, many people will die due
  to lack of food.
• Rapid increases in temperature cause more severe
  weather to occur, such as hurricanes. Thus, many
  people will die (have already died!).
• Rapid increases in temperature cause the glacial
  ice at the North and South Poles to melt, raising
  sea levels which will flood many major cities of
  the world.

50
Hurricane Power Dissipated (PDI) vsSea Surface
Temperature (SST) in North Atlantic
Obvious connection between high ocean surface
temperature and hurricane power.
http//www.realclimate.org/index.php?p181more-18
1 http//zfacts.com/p/49.html
51
Global Warming Turning off North Atlantic Ocean
Currents

• In tropics warm water evaporates, leaving greater
  salt concentration in the surface water.
• Salty water travels north and becomes cooler.
• At some point the salty cool surface water
  becomes more dense than the water underneath it,
  so it sinks rapidly.
• When the northern ice caps melt by global warming
  or otherwise, they supply fresh water into the
  North Atlantic.
• At some point the water ceases to be salty enough
  to sink at a specific location.
• The sinking of cold salty water is what drives
  the North Atlantic Ocean Currents.

52
Atlantic Ocean Currents

• Brazilian coastline deflects most of the South
  Equatorial Current into the northern hemisphere.
• Results in a large transfer of heat from the
  tropics into the far northern hemisphere.
• Note the several different North Atlantic Ocean
  Currents.
• The Isthmus of Panama keeps the Atlantic Ocean
  currents from going into the Pacific Ocean. It
  closed about 4 million years ago.

These North Atlantic surface Ocean Currents are
what make Interglacials warm. Notice that there
are several components.
http//www.fiu.edu/srimal/Currents_files/v3_docum
ent.htm
53
Can We Control Global Warming to Ameliorate Entry
into the Ice Age?
Controlled entry into next ice age by slowing the
rate of burning fossil fuels and/or storing the
carbon dioxide to be released later more
slowly. This would give more time for developing
the infrastructure needed for humans to survive
in the next ice age.
Neolithic Global Warming

• World population would be reduced either
  intentionally or otherwise.
• Can humans cooperate enough worldwide to
  peacefully reduce population, control the rate of
  burning fossil fuels and store carbon dioxide in
  the earth to be released at a controlled rate
  later?
• See http//www.arts.bev.net/roperldavid/Ameliorate
  GlobalWarming.pdf

54
Last 1000 Years Earth Temperature Data
Oil Age
The slight drop in temperature until 150 years
ago is due to solar insolation decreasing. The
rapid rise in temperature during the last 150
years is due to burning fossil fuels. This is
expected to continue for several hundred more
years if we continue to burn fossil fuels unless
the Atlantic Ocean current(s) are turned off by
the rapid rise in temperature.
55
Last 200 Years Earth Temperature and Population
Data
The rapid temperature increase is very similar to
the rapid world population increase. Carbon
dioxide increase behaves similarly. Oceans
contain unbalanced heat energy, which will cause
atmospheric temperatures to rise for another
century even if we quit putting CO2 into the
atmosphere.
56
2005 virtually tied 1998 as the warmest year on
record! http//www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/scien
ce/recordtemp2005.html
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http//www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf
57
Predictions for Next Two Major Ice Ages
Current Interglacial
Next Interglacial 115,000 years from now
Temperature will drop 3 to 4 degrees C in the
next 10,000 years.
Temperature will drop about 7 degrees C in the
next 50,000 years.
There will be shorter time fluctuations not
represented by the model.
The different predictions are for different
models of the climate.
Arctic temperature variations are larger than
temperate and tropics variations.
The next ice age will occur no matter whether we
quickly burn up all the fossil fuels or not.
Human beings will undoubtedly evolve greatly over
the next major ice age of about 110,000 years
duration, due to the extreme stresses of cold
climate, as they did during the last major ice
age. See http//www.roperld.com/science/tempsolins
atc.pdf
58
Triple Threats for the Human Future

• (Threat 1) Global warming unchecked will cause
  great troubles.
• (Threat 2) World Petroleum extraction is peaking.
• (Threat 3) Inevitable next ice age has been
  temporarily ameliorated by Anthropogenic Global
  Warming.
• Future global warming may trigger the next ice
  age sooner than with only modern global warming
  by turning off Atlantic ocean current(s).
• The Human Future will be much worse than the news
  media and governments have been telling you!
• It is interesting that the onset of intensive
  agriculture that led to industrialization was
  possible only in the interglacial just before the
  next ice age.

59
Troubles Ahead

• Rich nations will probably not give up their
  dependency on using more than their share of the
  worlds resources. Rich nations may continue
  their killing of people in poor nations to try to
  maintain the high standard of living.
• Nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass
  destruction may be used if the rich nations deem
  it necessary to guarantee their access to the
  remaining resources of the world.
• Suburban life will become difficult because of
  the difficulty and expense of traveling large
  distances for necessities. City life will become
  difficult because of the energy required to bring
  in necessities. Mostly self sufficient
  communities with surrounding farm lands are the
  best bet for survival (for example Blacksburg
  VA).
• Starvation will be widespread. Mass migrations
  from poorer nations to richer nations will
  probably occur.
• Much knowledge may be lost about how to survive
  in a less energy-intensive world and about how to
  create better living conditions.

60
How Can Humans get from Now to 1000 Years from
Now?

• Eliminate nuclear weapons and other weapons of
  mass destruction by all countries, including the
  United States (This implies a high degree of
  world cooperation, not go-it-alone)
• Emphasize pre-conception birth control to try to
  stabilize and peacefully bring down world
  population.
• Safely store knowledge for future use.
• Use energy and materials much more efficiently.
• Change from non-renewable to renewable energy
  sources.
• Use the remaining fossil fuels to develop
  infrastructure needed to use renewable energy
  sources.
• Depend more on local sources of energy, food and
  materials.
• Recycle materials to a high degree.
• Live closer together in self-sufficient
  communities.
• Move from individual transportation to shared
  transportation (e.g., railroads instead of
  interstates).
• Store carbon dioxide now in a way so that we can
  recover it later to release into the atmosphere
  to ameliorate the plunge into the next ice. See
  http//www.arts.bev.net/roperldavid/AmeliorateGlob
  alWarming.pdf
• Are humans informed and intelligent enough to
  realize these huge problems and to do these
  things quickly enough?
• See The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler

Hybrids next