Whats the weather forecast for Oxfordshire

1
Whats the weather forecast for Oxfordshire?

• Climate changes around the world
• Climate changes in Oxfordshire
• Whats happened?
• What does the future hold?
• What about NOW?

2

• What has been happening
• ...Globally
• ...In the UK
• In Oxfordshire?

3
What has happened?
Increase of 0.6 /-0.2C over the 20th century
Carbon Dioxide levels highest for at least
420,000 years
The global average temperature has
increasedfaster than ever in human history
See the IPCC 4th Assessment Report Summary for
Policy makers for official data http//www.ipcc.c
h/SPM2feb07.pdf
4
What does this mean globally?

• more heat trapped in the atmosphere
• water expanding, sea level rising
• climate system driving change
• changes to precipitationdrought.. and flooding
• more heat.. glacier and sea ice melting

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..effects 0.6ºC already being observed

• SEA LEVEL RISE
• ICE MELTING
• PRECIPITATION CHANGES
• ECOSYSTEM CHANGES
• EXTREME EVENTS

Have a look. Exeter Symposium, 1-3 Feb 2005,
outcomes viewable at http//www.stabilisation2005
.com/index.html Indicators of Climate Change UK,
http//www.edinburgh.ceh.ac.uk/iccuk/
6
..sea level has risen
10-20 cm rise over the 20th century
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90 of globes glaciers are in retreat
30-40 mass loss of Alpine Glaciers since 1980
(Street and Melnikov, EEA 2004) N. Hemisphere
snow cover decreased by 10 since 1966 (EEA, 2004)
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arctic sea ice retreating since 1970s
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serious impacts now for polar bears
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the climate is not as reliable

• Greater variability and unpredictability of
  weather
• An example Nicaragua, on the Atlantic
• coast
• 3 years of drought, then 1 year of great flooding
  bringing an infestation of rats
• Complete changes to the age-old rhythms for
  planting
• Story from Oxfam- many similar experiences
• See http//www.oxfam.org.uk/what_we_do/issues/clim
  ate_change/stories.htm

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storm activity and intensity in the atlantic is
increasing

• 2005 most active season on record, 27 named
• storms
• Wilma strongest storm on record

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These changes have happened as a result of a
global 0.6 C rise(now 0.8C up to 2007)

• A further TWO degrees is seen as the limit for
  dangerous global warming
• We expect a further 1- 1.5 C of unavoidable
  warming.

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..there are BIG regional variations of this 0.6C
global average temperature rise
For example, in 2005, the hottest year on record,
the greatest warming was found in the North Pole,
and in the Northern Latitudes- up to
3.4C. This regional variation is set to
continue. Source Make your own map of observed
global warming at http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistem
p/maps/
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..so whats been happening in the UK?
0.7 DEGREES of warming in Central England
relative to 1961-1990
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..seasonal precipitation changes in England
Wales
SUMMER
WINTER
too much, too little, wrong place
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ecosystems in the UK are affected now

• Changes to dates of Egg-laying, animal breeding,
  flowering
• Spring two weeks earlier, Autumn one week later
• Increased length of growing season, up to 30 days
• First UK crop Apricots grown, Kent, 2005, olives
  planted and vineyards expanding.
• Problems with crops that need a cold spell to
  induce fruiting.. Early rhubarb and
  blackcurrants. Watch out in the shops for
  shortages this year 2007!

• Look here for more examples!
• UK Indicators of Climate Change
  http//www.edinburgh.ceh.ac.uk/iccuk/
• UK Phenology Network http//www.phenology.org.uk/
• Agriculture and Climate Change, NFU, November
  2005 http//www.nfuonline.com/x3452.xml

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heat wave 2006..worse than 2003?
Source BBC
See some of the impacts of the Summer 2006 heat
wave in Oxfordshire- Skip to slide 27-28
18
heat wave 2003.. 30,000 dead throughout Europe
England, 3rd-14th August 2003 excess mortality,
all ages 2091 deaths
Half the risk of this event thought to be
directly attributable to human-induced climate
change
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Recap- whats happened

• Average Temperature increasing, with greater
  increases at Northern latitudes
• Sea rising
• Ice melting
• Precipitation changing- more, and less- flooding
  and droughts
• Ecosystems changing
• More extreme weather heat waves, torrential
  rain, storm activity

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Whats been happening in Oxfordshire?
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.. is our climate changing?

• We cannot attribute individual weather events to
  human-induced climate change.
• ..but we can see trends emerging and compare
  these with what climate scientists project may
  happen
• So how does weather affect us now in Oxfordshire,
  and how might it change?

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Some comments from Oxfordshire people

• There's no doubt that the climate is changing-
• people who say it isn't just aren't noticing it'
• A window cleaner, North Oxford
• The past 20 years have definitely been getting
• milder... but of course there's still natural
• variability..'
• University Parks Superintendent, Walter Sawyers
• The summers are drier, and when the rain does
• come, it comes in much heavier downpours'
• Gardener, the Botanic Gardens

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• Current weather impacts in Oxfordshire..
• and signs of a changing climate

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Too littlesummer water shortages
PRECIPITATION NOW
The South East faced its driest period since
1933, with many months of below average rainfall
from November 2004 Fish die due to low oxygen
levels, frog and insect breeding patterns
affected due to low river flows Oxford Mail,
10/08/06
25
Too muchFlooding a fact of life in Oxfordshire
PRECIPITATION NOW
Winter 1992..Jan 1998..Easter 1998Oct 1998..Dec
1998..Jan 1999...Oct 2000..Dec 2000Feb 2001..Nov
2002.. Jan 2003..Oct 2006..Jan 2007
Over 40 major incidents in Oxfordshire due to
flooding over past 15 years, from 14 heavy flood
periods, summer and winter Over 12 incidents of
Summer flash flooding 1999-2006 Source Local
Climate Impacts Profile, Oxfordshire County
Council (information gathered from various
sources, including news reportage which is
unverified)
26
..natural ecology changes
ECOLOGICAL CHANGE NOW

• Birds breeding up to 3 weeks earlier in
• Wytham Woods Oxford Mail, 28/07/06
• Strange behaviour of vegetable crops reported on
• local farm.. January King Cabbage bolting in
  November,
• and cabbage white butterflies still thriving well
  into Winter
• season.
• North Aston Organics Farm Newsletter, December
• 2006
• Tendency for earlier Springs, winter-flowering
• plants coming out
• earlier, and less prolonged frosts than 20-25
  years
• ago
• Walter Sawyers, Superintendent University Parks

January King cabbage- should this be the
November King?!
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heat wave impacts summer 2006
EXTREME EVENTS HEAT WAVES
Banbury Road, Summertown, Oxford

• More than 37 roads affected by tarmac melting..
• Gritters sent out in the middle of the heatwave
  to treat
• roads
• Oxford Mail 07/09/2006

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July 2006 schools are closed, offices are
sticky, elderly and young are vulnerable
EXTREME EVENTS HEAT WAVES NOW

• 6 schools are closed for up to 2
• days nearly 1000 students
• affected
• Oxford Mail 18/07/2006
• Power failures due to intense storms
• brought on by hot weather

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.. mini tornados, storms, strong windsheavy
rainfall
EXTREME EVENTS STORM ACTIVITY NOW

• Mini tornados in 1992, 1997 and 2003
• cause damage to buildings in Minster
• Lovell, Towersby, and Filkins
• Witney gazette, 21/10/98 Oxford Mail 16/01/98
  BBC
• Winds of up to 90mph led to the death
• of 7 people across Oxfordshire in
• October 2002
• http//news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2368129.stm
• 100 trees blown down in January 1998
• storms across the county
• Oxford Mail 05/01/1998

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• So what might happen in the future?

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So whats going to happen? What about global
emissions?
It largely depends on the path of our global
greenhouse gas emissions Black line- HIGH- up
to 6C by 2100 Green line- LOW- around 2C
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..and there will be some unavoidable change over
the next 30-40 years regardless of our emissions
path
A further 1-1.5C by the 2040s

• The thermal inertia of the climate system means
  well experience the effects of our emissions to
  date, over the next 30-40 years.

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• Oxfordshires changing climate
• 2007 to 2037

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2007-2037 Oxfordshire

• How might we
• expect our climate
• to change over the
• next 30 years?
• What do our children
• face?

2007- Age O
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Oxfordshire 2007-2037

• Further temperature rise of 1-2C
• Changes to our weather and
• greater unpredictability
• Increasing impacts of
• weather
• Key Messages
• Hotter, drier summers
• Milder, wetter winters
• More extreme events- heat waves, flash
  flooding, torrential rain

2020s- this means the period 2011-2040
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hotter, drier summers
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION CHANGE 2007-2037
Subsidence caused by drought, damaging roads and
buildings

• Water shortages.

Impacts for wildlife.. Fish and aquatic species
hard-hit
Drought resistant plants and crops needed
15 less summer rainfall SourceUKCIP02
37
..milder, wetter winters
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION CHANGE 2007-2037
Less snowfall and ice milder winters
15 more winter rainfall Source UKCIP02
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increases in winter flooding..
PRECIPITATION CHANGE 2007-2037 impacts

• . flooding due to sustained rainfall on
  saturated ground

and in the summer flash flooding due to
torrential rain on hard ground
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.. drought resistant plants and crops will grow
best
ECOLOGICAL CHANGE continuing 2007-2037
Sunflowers, vineyards, decrease in lawns
.. habitat management to protect vulnerable
species
Chalk streams, beech woods, river life
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heat waves more common
EXTREME EVENTS HEAT WAVES increasing frequency

• Changes to working patternsschool summertime
  hours
• Internal building temperatures will need to be
  controlled
• Elderly and children vulnerable to heat stress
• Damage to crops

and an increase in other extreme events
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impacts and adaptations.. a summary
And opportunities New crops for energy use Local
food initiatives Cutting edge technologies for
energy efficiency and renewables Businesses
thriving on low-carbon economy
Biodiversity Species in the South may migrate to
the North as climate conditions change. Wildlife
corridors will be needed to ensure migration can
take place. Typical habitats such as the Beech
woods of South Oxfordshire may suffer as a result
of combined heat and drought.

• Hotter, drier summers
• Milder, wetter winters
• More extreme events

Gardens Gardeners will need to employ water
conservation techniques such as mulching and
rainfall harvesting to manage summer water
shortages. New drought resistant plants may
become more popular.
Transport Reduction in travel problems due to
snow and ice Increase in disruption due to
flooding, melting roads and buckling rail tracks
Urban life Towns and cities feel hotter than
rural areas because of heat trapped by buildings
and transport and less heat removed by greenery.
Heat wave effects will be more intense in Oxford.
Shading and cooling of buildings may be
necessary. More trees and shade may need to be
planted.
Water Shortages of water in summer will mean
careful management of resources is
necessary Increased rainfall in winter, and
greater intensity of rainfall in both winter and
summer, will exacerbate flooding problems.
Rainwater harvesting and better urban drainage
need to be employed to even out water supplies
and protect infrastructure.
Farming Increasing water shortages in Summer will
mean better irrigation systems and crops with
greater drought resistance are needed. New crops
may be grown and changes to practices needed to
manage greater unpredictability and variability
of weather.
Health Heat wave impacts for elderly and
vulnerable, but fewer winter deaths. Increase in
tropical diseases such as malaria, and in
exposure related illnesses such as skin cancer.
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• Future prospects beyond 2037
• Oxfordshire 2037-2100

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What about 2037 to 2100?
?
It depends on our global collective action NOW!!
In 2007 Thats you and me, and the whole world!
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a two degrees low emissions future
Prosperity Climate stabilisation New
technologies and energy industries
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a five degrees high emissions future..
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.. five degree consequences

• drought
• increases in catastrophic weather
• loss of 50 species
• extreme summer temperatures
• many global impacts, impacting Oxfordshire
• runaway global warming.

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Drastic changes to precipitation
-60
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hotter heat waves, every summer
Summer 2080
European Summer Temperatures Source Hadley Centre
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potential drastic loss of species
15-37 of all species worldwide could be driven
to extinction by 2050 as a result of climate
changes Nature, January 2004
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potential drastic loss of species
15-37 of all species worldwide could be driven
to extinction by 2050 as a result of climate
changes Nature, January 2004
51
..many global impacts with knock-on effects for
Oxfordshire
Arctic summer sea ice disappears by 2080s..
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..global temperatures 2080s, relative to present
day
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increase in precipitation by 2080 worldwide but
change is the key
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How do we take the 2 degree path?

• Globally cut our use of fossil fuels
• Protect against deforestation and habitat
  destruction
• Shift to low-carbon renewable fuels
• Use new technology to increase energy efficiency
  and store carbon
• Make lots of small changes

Individual.gt collective..gt global.
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The challenge the opportunity
Its our decisionin our hands

• The biggest adventure well ever face
  opportunity to make an impact
• Creating a positive future story of climate
  change

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..acknowledgements and sources of further
information

• Many thanks to Oxfordshire County Council for
  information on climate and weather impacts in
  Oxfordshire. See http//www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/cli
  matechange for more details
• Where next?
• You can download our Climate Change Facts ppt
  and other resources from http//www.climatex.org/a
  rticles/resources/presentations/ TO COME
• See our links page for useful climate change web
  sites with an Oxfordshire focus
  http//www.climatex.org/articles/community/links/
  
• Information about observations of climate change
  to date from the Intergovernmental Panel on
  Climate Change http//www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_ta
  r/wg1/048.htm
• Find out more about Oxfordshires local climate
  from the UK Climate Impacts Programme
  www.ukcip.org.uk FORTHCOMING